A word on GPP bankroll management
A couple of years ago it was all the rage to MME and cover as many bases as possible to get an edge in MLB. We had fights in chat for hours debating the subject. Well I am now of the opinion that smaller fields are the only way to go in MLB. Why? Because there will always be the guy that has the near career day, the outlier, the little skinny dude, that takes a decent pitching staff deep twice. As the tournament field size grows, so does the possibility of said skinny dude wrecking the slate. This is a case where more is less. If you are playing the $5 Squeeze on Fanduel and watching your bankroll shrink it’s because on any given night you are going up against 35000 other guys and gals, many of which are entering a ton of lineups hoping to hit it big. The outliers have a larger chance of being rosters in the max entry tourneys. First prize is 30K tonight in that tournament. Tenth place gets 350. Even though it’s a true 2X tourney, the sheer size of the field makes it hard to take it down or place high. If you are entering 5 lineups in similar contests, consider making one lineup and look to the 8K Fri MLB Blast single entry. Here we have a field size of just 181 (one of which is you), with a top prize of $1250. The tourney pays 22% of the field and Min Cash is a solid 2X. You get the picture. Spend more on the contest, make sure you know why you are clicking on a particular player, and enjoy the night when “that skinny guy” is not owned in your GPP contest. With all of that said, don’t stop taking you shots downfield if you have the bankroll to sustain the losses. I’d also add on DK the Skipper, Power Alley, and the Fielder’s Choice are excellent smaller field tournaments.
Friday night lineup exercise
When you use nine random guys you need nine random events to take place
When you stack you only need two or three events to go as planned
OK for DK its ten random events. So now that we are in the right tournaments, let us explore an approach to creating a single lineup. Disclaimer, don’t play this lineup! Learn the process! Here is where many a professionals start and finish. There could be ten bullets here. But we are using the KISS approach today.
- Vegas totals. Yes they are often whack, but there is some science involved in the run totals. Use this either as a way to stack or mini stack, or to fade to get an edge on the field. But remember, we just narrowed the field, so you can bet your opponents will be leaning to ride much of the slates chalk.
- Weather. Yes it matters, and if you look close the Vegas will have good hitting conditions baked into their run totals. A quick look today has Coors with the highest total on the slate with 11 and a nice wind blowing out to right center at about 20mph at first pitch. It will diminish somewhat during the game, but there may be some early fireworks for the first hours or so. As Tom put it the other day, he uses weather as a tie breaker. I’ll take a pitching staff with a 20 MPH wind at their back all day long over a pitching staff with a 20 MPH wind heading out to the Pesky Pole.
- Pitching, both starters and their bullpens. You don’t have to have any heavy research on this subject. If you look to the cash game article you are covered. For example Ted has the Arizona’s staff pegged as the prime target tonight. https://www.elitefantasy.com/dfs-mlb-cash-game-breakdown-5-21/ . News flash, the CGA can be used for GPPS as well. When you get the info (my gosh stats are everywhere) massage it into a winning lineup.
So there are three simple places to start the GPP process each day. Vegas, weather, and the CGA. I’m talking 20 minutes on your lunch break and you should have a strategy building in your grey cells. By the time the GPP article comes out you can refine and press on. Chat is always there for further tweaking. For this exercise we will be using San Diego as our base camp.
- Starting pitchers. Today there are three guys at the top which you need to consider in a smaller field GPPs. They are Bauer, Glasnow, and Nola. You can bet that one or two of these guys will be in there against you. Certainly one technique is to use two top pitchers that are capable of giving you 60 points on DK right out of the box. Another approach is a top guy and mid tier (Mike Minor comes to mind today), or a top guy and a punt with solid bats. Today we have a mini-gem in Dobnak. Yes he was just called up but he was actually an OK pitcher for Minnesota in 2020. He’s basically free on DK and gets to pitch against Cleveland who are collectivity batting a woeful .213. If he can keep his sinker low and sinking, he has a shot at 4+ innings at 4K. Using a guy like Dobnak should also get you different.
- Stack #1. San Diego. 1-4. Pretty straight forward. Flexen does have a decent cutter and excellent control. But I think 1-4 can figure it out. They would have slept in their own beds and will get plenty of strikes to hit. Feel free to put you own 1-4 in there. It’s what we do. PIVOT IS MCMAHON. Machado is out.
- Mini #1. Colorado. 1 and 3. Frankoff is an absolutely not ready for primetime kinda pitcher. The former KBO guy and career minor leaguer is only in the bigs because Gallen, Weaver, Widner and now Bum are all banged up. If you fade Coors tonight, do it at your own risk would be the message here. Larger field, by all means fade.
- Mini #2. White Sox. Mercedes and Vaughn should be 4-5 tonight hitting before Grandal. Montgomery will not be able to pitch around any of these guys. There is nothing fancy about this mini stack. We have a left handed pitcher and a mini-stack of righties. Just a reminder, Vaughn was the third overall pick by the White Sox in 2019. Keep him on your radar moving forward. The kid can hit, just don’t look at his pic on DK. You will not roster him.
Good luck tonight…Peace, and as always, stay safe out there.