Kansas, 1.5-mile speedway. This is a 267 lap event…
Hollywood Casino 400 DFS Breakdown
- Kansas Speedway
- Sunday 10/20/19 – 2:30 PM
- 1.5 mile, Paved
Last Race Notables: Brad Keselowski won.
- Laps Led – Harvick: 104, Bowman: 63, Elliott: 45
- Start/Finish – Eliott 32/4, Johnson 12/6, Larson 35/8, Reddick 21/9, Almirola 33/12, Suárez 34/14, Logano 30/15, Truex 31/19, McDowell 37/26, Ty Dillon 36/28
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led points and less fastest lap points, making place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but there is less likely of a chance to have two or three of them and really separate them from the pack. I expect there to be two or three guys to get some significant laps led points this weekend.
Process: Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for NASCAR. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on, based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over. So then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab. Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way.
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 46 pts, 2nd 42 pts, 3rd 41, 4th 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
- .1 pts for each lap completed
- Place Differential = +/- .5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 5 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 43 pts, 2nd 40 pts, 3rd 38, 4th 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Let’s take a look at some of the track stats.
HOLLYWOOD CASINO 400 DFS PICKS
Kevin Harvick ($11,000) – Starting 40th. 14 top 10’s, eight top 5’s and three wins. Seven of his last 12 here have been top 5’s with three wins mixed into the fold. Harvick is my guy this weekend.
Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,800) – Starting 11th. Another great driver on the 1.5-mile tracks here. Truex has nine top 10’s, eight top 5’s and two wins here at Kansas. Four out of his last five here have been top 5’s with two wins.
Brad Keselwoski ($9,600) – Starting 4th. 10 top 10’s, four top 5’s and two wins here at Kansas. Lot’s of speed in practice. Won here earlier in the year.
Kyle Busch ($11,400) – Starting 18th. Beast, as usual. GPP play here. Expensive and should be lower owned. 10 top 10’s, six top 5’s and a win here at Kansas.
Logano and Elliot are honorable mentions. Both solid plays.
Kyle Larson ($8,700) – Starting 5th. Five top 10’s, three top 5’s. Finished 8th, 3rd and 4th in his last three here while leading 101 laps.
Aric Almirola ($8,100) – Starting 13th. Out of the playoffs but runs pretty solid here: 12th, 10th, 9th and 9th in his last four. Should be a nice safe play this weekend.
Kurt Busch ($9,000) – Starting 15th. 10 top 10’s, three top 5’s. Lots of speed in practice. Finished 7th here earlier in the year.
Alex Bowman ($8,600) – Starting 16th. Three top 10’s, one top 5: all in the last four races here with Team Hendrick. Another solid run on Sunday for Bowman.
Daniel Suárez ($7,500) – Starting 8th. Has a top 10 here at Kansas. Finished 14th last time out here. Running for Stwart Haas. Lot’s of upside at his price. Some risk, but I like him.
Ryan Newman ($7,300) – Starting 7th. No price movement after his 2nd place last week. I like it. Newman is making a statement at Team Roush this year with a number of great runs. Seven top 10’s, three top 5’s and a win here at Kansas.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,000) – Starting 19th. Numerous finishes in the teens. Nice speed in practice. Could have a solid run on Sunday.
Daniel Hemric ($6,600) – Starting 1st. Wow. Lots of upside and risk here. Could lead a bunch of laps with a solid finish or could fall back and get lots of negative place differential. GPP only for multi-lineup builders. Finished 18th in his only race here.
HOLLYWOOD CASINO 400 PICKS TO WIN
- Kevin Harvick
- Martin Truex, Jr.
- Chase Elliott
- Sleeper – Alex Bowman
Last race predictions: 1000Bulbs.com 500
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on twitter @trmp31.