Watkins Glen is a 90 lap road course event…
Go Bowling at The Glen DFS Breakdown
- Watkins Glen International
- Sunday 8/4/19 – 3:00 PM
- 3.4 mile Road Course
Last Race Notables: Chase Elliott won.
- Laps Led – Elliott: 52, Kyle Busch: 31, Truex: 4
- Start/Finish – Suarez 21/4, Byron 16/8, Kurt Busch 36/9, Harvick 15/10, Bowyer 18/11, Bowman 22/14, Stenhouse 23/16, Ty Dillon 30/23, Menard 37/28
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led pts, and less fastest lap pts, making place finish and place differential pts a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but it is less likely to have two or three of them and really separate them from the pack. I expect there to be two or three guys to get some significant laps led pts this weekend.
Process: Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for NASCAR. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on, based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over. So then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab. Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way.
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 46 pts, 2nd 42 pts, 3rd 41, 4th 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
- .1 pts for each lap completed
- Place Differential = +/- .5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 5 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 43 pts, 2nd 40 pts, 3rd 38, 4th 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Let’s take a look at some of the track stats.
GO BOWLING AT THE GLEN DFS PICKS
Kyle Busch ($11,600) – Starting 3rd. BEAST. Has won twice here and can dominate any weekend.
Martin Truex, Jr. ($11,300) – Starting 4th. Finished 2nd, 1st and 7th in his last three at the Glen. Eight top 10’s, five top 5’s and a win here. Truex is having a nice year on his new team, and I fully expect that to continue this weekend.
Kevin Harvick ($10,900) – Starting 15th. 12 top 10’s, six top 5’s and two wins here at the Glen. Great cash game play and may have a shot to win this weekend.
Chase Elliott ($10,300) – Starting 1st. Won last time here on the pole. Could dominate this race. Has had a tough year. GPP play, but will have some shares.
Erik Jones ($8,900) – Starting 14th. Going with some young guys to start this mid-tier range. Jones is running hot, finishing 2nd, 3rd and 3rd in his last three races. Now he comes to the Glen where he has finished 5th and 10th in his only two here.
Daniel Suárez ($8,100) – Starting 18th. Fighting for his playoff life, Suárez comes to the Glen where he has two starts and has finished 4th and 3rd. Another strong outing this weekend for Suárez at the Glen?
Denny Hamlin ($9,400) – Starting 6th. Hamlin has six top 10’s, three top 5’s and a win here. Coming off a win last week and a solid year.
Joey Logano ($9,100) – Starting 21st. Garbage Q run. Solid play due to starting position. Five top 10’s, three top 5’s and a win here at the Glen. Top cash game play and will anchor my lineups.
William Byron ($7,200) – Starting 2nd. Sticking with my comments from last week, where Byron paid off…..Gradually making strides each week in his Hendricks #24. In his only race here at the Glen, Byron started 16th and finished 8th.
Ryan Newman ($7,400) – Starting 25th. Mr. Consistent is up to it again. Having a nice solid year with a number of respectable finishes. That is just the case here for Newman at Watkins Glen. A bunch of decent finishes, three top 10’s and a top 5.
Daniel Hemric ($7,000) – Starting 23rd. Road course guy. Won Xfinity on Saturday. Should be in for a quality run here on Sunday.
Ryan Preece ($6,100) – Starting 29th. Rook, GPP play here. Starting in the back, should be able to stay out of trouble for a decent finish.
GO BOWLING AT THE GLEN PICKS TO WIN
- Kyle Busch
- Kurt Busch
- Martin Truex, Jr.
- Sleeper – William Byron
GO BOWLING AT THE GLEN PROP BETS
- Kyle Busch over Truex
- Elliott over Hamlin
- Hamlin over Harvick
- Hamlin over Bowyer
- Logano over Kes
- Logano over Blaney
Drivers to go over DK scoring
- Kyle Busch
- Truex Jr.
Drivers to go under DK scoring
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on twitter @trmp31.