Sunday Funday! Your boy Duke has your back for Sunday’s DFS split slate in the Bundesliga.
Up and down Saturday for the crew. We had some absolute bangers but also had Julian Brandt in the cash core, who was a stinker. I still cashed every cash game, and if Demirbay even bags one of his two open net opportunities, we are going HAM on the slate.
Enough about Saturday, how about Sunday? THANKFULLY, we do not have the early 7:30 am game on the slate. I’ll throw some notes on that game at the bottom of the article but will not be in the chat room prior to kickoff.
I WILL be in the chat before the Mainz/Leipzig game starts. This is a split slate again so we won’t know team news from Koln/Dusseldorf at kickoff for Mainz/Leipzig. There is late swap, so if there are surprises, we can make pivots.
To the desert…
- Mainz +575 | 3,3.5 (-110o/-110u)
- Leipzig -240
- DRAW +400
- FC Koln -130 | 2.5,3 (-120o/EVENu)
- Dusseldorf +320
- DRAW +305
BUNDESLIGA DFS GAME THOUGHTS
I was extremely impressed with Mainz against Koln. I like the way they play. They try to play good soccer. They try to play the right way. However, that typically requires a willing opponent who will allow you to play free-flowing and attacking play. I’m not so sure the high flying Leipzig team is that opponent.
RBL had a disappointing draw last weekend and will be looking to grab three points here. Interestingly, only one home team has won through 1 ½ weekend’s worth of games. Leipzig are the big away favorite here, and I would expect them to return to their high flying ways in this match. Massive total.
Koln did well to take the lead v Mainz but really didn’t have an answer once things started going downhill. They are the home favorites here against a Dusseldorf team that really struggles to pick up all three points but have eight draws on the season. They did pick up all three points against Koln at home in a 2-0 win but are the underdogs here. Their total is about one goal less than the first match, and I would think we see ownership trend towards that game.
BUNDESLIGA DFS PLAYS BY POSITION
Werner – RBL – $9.6k
Hello there well! I’m back. He was used in a wide position last weekend in a front 3. I know he’s played there in the past and they love to run out Poulsen or Schick as the big man through the middle, but they need to get Timo closer to the goal to get the most out of him.
Uth – KOE – $10.6k
Does everything for Koln, hence the price. Favored team with set pieces and penalty kick duty is a decent place, but for $10.6k, he’ll need a hell of a game to hit value.
Poulsen – RBL – $7.4k
Took his goal well last weekend and missed another sitter. He’s getting in great positions and will have multiple chances to score. On a short slate, at this price, you have to have shares. I’ll have more than most.
Nkunku – RBL – $9.8k
I’ll say it again, I don’t think he’s as good as HE thinks he is. He is on set pieces and does have some open play value. They are big favorites on a short slate. I’m not completely fading him, but like last week, I’ll have less than the field. He picked up 13.2 at a salary of $9.7k and was subbed off in the 81st minute. A similar stat line could be in store here.
Thommy – F95 – $7.2k
Dusseldorf gave them everything they could handle last time, and Thommy is at the center of most, if not all, attacks. I’ll be going from Poulsen to Thommy on my non-RBL teams.
Angelino – RBL – $7.8k
Put in 14 crosses against Freiburg last week with a few set piece crosses thrown in there. If Nkunku happens to sit, we’ll be all in.
Kainz – KOE – $8.4k
One of the better floors on the slate and does have some upside with nine goals + assists in 21 games. I’m using Koln as a way to differentiate from Leipzig lineups.
Berisha – F95 – $3.8k
Sup with this price? Value for the money for sure.
Baku – M05 – $4.5k
Plays off the right wing and was consistently getting behind the Koln defense to get in dangerous situations. Even without the assist, he had 9.5 points. We can get to 1.5-2x here.
Laimer – RBL – $3.7k
If he plays that right wing back role, I’ll be all in. Stay tuned..
Drexler – KOE – $5.7k
Over double digits in starts consistently.
Stoger – F95 – $6.1k
Awful game against Paderborn, but you’d expect him to bounce back if he gets the start and doesn’t have as much defensive responsibility. That’s two “ifs” we have to overcome. In the pool but not super high.
Martin – M05 – $5.2k
Seems weird to pay over $5k for a big underdog defender, but a lot of his value comes from set pieces. He took every single corner/free kick last weekend and did get forward for a cross or two, as well. Even in a perceived (-) matchup, he’s viable.
Halstenberg – RBL – $4.6k
Don’t love playing center backs even in a back 3, but he still picks up stats throughout the stat sheet.
Suttner – F95 – $4.4k
Dusseldorf will need to attack through the wings to be effective. Something 1.5x is expected here.
Giesselmann – F95 – $4.2k
Tough slate defensively means he’s in play even though we don’t really love spending on him.
Cheap FB or RBL CBs incoming!
Muller – M05 – $3.9k
Cheap enough to take a risk.
Gulasci – RBL – $5.8k
SO expensive but massive favorite.
Kastenmeier – F95 – $4.2k
With how bad Koln looked in the second half, the Dusseldorf win odds certainly increased. Upside here.
Horn – KOE
GOOD LUCK! New to DFS Soccer? Here’s an intro with Duke’s Rules & Strategies.