Tricky Triangle time. Headed to PA for this 160 lap event…
Gander RV 400 DFS Breakdown
Update – NASCAR Inspection Madness: Nine cars failed pre-race technical inspection. List and my thoughts below.
- A. Dillon – Starting 34th. Puts him on my radar a bit, but still not a fan this weekend
- Blaney – Starting 30th. Still like
- Chastain – Starting 37th. No change
- Byron – Starting 31st. See Blaney
- Sorenson – Starting 38th. No Change
- McDowell – Starting 35th. Will be adding some shares
- LaJoie – Starting 36th. No Change
- Buescher – Starting 33rd. See Blaney
- Johnson – Starting 32nd. Will add a few more shares of JJ
- Pocono Raceway
- Sunday 7/28/19 – 3:00 PM
- 2.5 mile Triangle
Last Race Notables: Kyle Busch won.
- Laps Led – Kyle Busch: 79, Larson: 35, Byron: 25
- Start/Finish – Elliott 12/4, Logano 16/7, Kurt Busch 21/11, Hemric 23/13, Buescher 24/14, McDowell 28/20, Chastain 32/24
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led pts, and less fastest lap pts, making place finish and place differential pts a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but it is less likely to have two or three of them and really separate them from the pack. I expect there to be two or three guys to get some significant laps led pts this weekend.
Process: Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for NASCAR. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on, based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over. So then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab. Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way.
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 46 pts, 2nd 42 pts, 3rd 41, 4th 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
- .1 pts for each lap completed
- Place Differential = +/- .5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 5 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 43 pts, 2nd 40 pts, 3rd 38, 4th 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Let’s take a look at some of the track stats.
GANDER RV 400 DFS PICKS
Kyle Busch ($11,400) – Starting 7th. BEAST. Won last two here. 14 top 10’s, eight top 5’s and three wins here.
Denny Hamlin ($10,200) – Starting 12th. 17 top 10’s, 10 top 5’s and four wins here at Pocono. Finished 6th and 10th in his last two here. Will be one of my picks to win this weekend.
Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,500) – Starting 11th. 10 top 10’s, five top 5’s and two wins here. He won here in 2018 and has some speed this weekend.
Kevin Harvick ($11,700) – Starting 1st. Seems like your safe cash play here. Coming off his W last week. Here are his last 10 here at Pocono: 22nd, 4th, 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 9th, 42nd, 2nd and 2nd.
Kurt Busch ($8,700) – Starting 9th. 20 top 10’s, 14 top 5’s and three wins here at Pocono. Finished 11th earlier this year here.
Daniel Suárez ($7,900) – Starting 10th. 8th and 2nd in his last two here. I like Suarez as a safe play this weekend.
Erik Jones ($8,300) – Starting 4th. Nice speed in practices. Jones has four top 10’s and three top 5’s in five career races here at Pocono. Finished 3rd and 5th in his last two here.
Ryan Blaney ($9,100) – Starting 20th. Two top 10’s, one top 5 and one win here at Pocono. Blaney has run pretty well here. Finishing 12th, 12th, 6th, 30th and 1st in his last five.
Willam Byron ($7,100) – Starting 8th. Gradually making strides in his Hendricks #24. Has two top 10’s here and an average finish of 11th.
Chris Buescher ($7,400) – Starting 28th. Got his first win here in a rain-shortened run in 2016. Finished 14th, 37th and 17th in his last three here. Looking for a nice finish in the teens this weekend.
Matt DiBenedetto ($6,400) – Starting 13th. His last three races: 5th, 16th and 8th. Pretty impressive for Matt. I am going to ride the hot hand here. Showing some nice speed.
Daniel Hemric ($6,300) – Starting 22nd. Here we go again with Hemric. Risky rookie. Up and down all year. He did finish 13th here at Pocono earlier in the year. GPP only.
GANDER RV 400 PICKS TO WIN
- Denny Hamlin
- Kyle Busch
- Erik Jones
GANDER RV 400 PROP BETS
- Kyle Busch over Kes
- Kyle Busch over Truex
- Kyle Busch over Harvick
- Truex over Kes
- Harvick over Kes
- Hamlin over Logano
- Hamlin over Elliott
- Blaney over Larson
- Jones over Blaney
- Jones over Larson
- Jones over Bowyer
- Kurt Busch over Bowyer
- Suárez over Almirola
- JJ over Bowman
- JJ over Byron
- Stenhouse over A. Dillon
Drivers to go over DK scoring
Drivers to go under DK scoring
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on twitter @trmp31.