Tommy G’s Week 14 NFL DFS Breakdown!
upgrade stills with no fuller, but not a ton of exposure
ALL IN powell, fuck the ownership, its a free square, i have him on 5 of 6 teams
Jamal adams is out, so not “all in” jets anymore, but still like em, going Pitt, bucs and Jets mix
Week 14 NFL DFS Breakdown
What’s up, you fuckin’ degenerates! Football is back and we are ready to piss all over this fuckin’ season! A couple tips for NFL…..
1) HERE ARE THE IMPORTANT HANDLES TO FOLLOW ON SOCIAL IF YOU ARE A NEW SUB:
- ME: @TommyG (Twitter) @TommyGDFS (Instagram)
- DFS SITE: @ElitefantasyHQ (Twitter & Instagram)
- BETTING SITE: @EliteWins (Twitter) @EliteAlerts (For betting article updates)
2) READ MY GPP SELECTION ARTICLE. It is the final section of my Full-Service NFL Guide, below the prop betting section. I think it is CRITICAL for you guys to read before entering GPPs.
3) R-E-L-A-X. I already know that by 1:30 pm on Sunday I will want to fly out and rip some people’s throats out on Twitter cause “Cook has two carries for three yards in the 2Q” or some shit like that. I am telling u this RIGHT NOW…..ur subscription does not include my Twitter. I have no problem blocking people nowadays cause I just don’t need the constant bitching cat avatar negativity in my life over one bad call or some dumb flukey shit that you wanna blame your life on me for. I am here to give you advice and help you build your lineups, BUT U CLICK THE FUCKING BUTTON, so if you wanna lose ur shit and attack on Twitter (when there’s a 99% chance that I am losing 10Xs what u are on that same play), I’m just gonna hit the block button. I used to be #TeamNoBlock, but honestly after seven years on Twitter, I just don’t need that shit in my life, so a jab or two here or there, fine, but if you think I’m gonna be ur fucking whipping boy cause u lost $8 on Dalvin Cook busting, go fuck yourself lol. Same applies to the chatroom.
4) HAVE FUN! If you are playing an amount of money that can send u into a tailspin if u don’t win, you’re doing this wrong. YES, we are here to make money and smash, but don’t forget to not let DFS destroy ur weekends and ruin ur life. This is a tough game where we only need to smash three or four weeks all season to make a profit, so play within ur means and enjoy the day.
DISCLAIMER: I normally play 3-5 lineups on the bulk of my money, and the G-spot plays will be the CORE for those lineups, while the guys ranked in “OTHERS” and “FLIERS” will be used to fill out my main lineups (ideally, sometimes u need to punt with a nobody just to make the rest work). Once I get to my 6th-100th lineup for shit like the milly maker, ANYTHING GOES, including fades! I want to be as transparent as possible with you guys, but PLEASE don’t lose ur mind if I bink a small GPP with a guy who wasn’t one of my preferred plays. Because when u are building MME lineups, you are supposed to try and get exposure to everyone and everything and even build a bunch of lineups with guys u are fading as a hedge. This article is built for those of you setting 3-5 lineups, NOT the MME guys, so please act and read accordingly. I will have some updates most likely up until kickoff Sunday so keep your eye out for those too. OK, Let’s get it…..
This is the list of who I believe to be the most owned guys at each position… keep in mind, this could be way off what actually ends up happening, but I have had a real knack for this so it should give you a decent gauge of what to expect.
QB: Watson 25%, Tannehill 12%, Matt Ryan 10%
RB: CMC 38%, Freeman 20%, Fournette 20%, Gordon 18%
WR: Parker 20%, Adams 20%, Odell 15%, Hopkins 15%
TE: Ian Thomas 15%, Kittle 15%
D: Jets 14%, Ravens 12%
- BAL/BUF windy and cold
- Nothing else crazy
WEEK 14 NFL DFS QUARTERBACK
G-SPOT $$$: LAMAR 25%
- Mahomes 5%
- Rodgers 5%
I am gonna make this simple, #AlwaysLamar. There is no reason to ever pay up for anyone but Lamar, especially on a week where he will have single-digit ownership. Rodgers makes for a fun GPP play at low ownership paired with Adams, and Mahomes will be low owned and can actually be played naked, but it’s Lamar with a bullet.
G-SPOT $$: RYAN 10%
- Watson 5%
I think this week is Julio week, therefore, it makes it a solid week to play Matt Ryan. I also think Freeman will be very popular vs. a porous Carolina run D, also making Matty Ice a tad lower owned than you would think this week. Watson is gonna be uber chalk, maybe 30%, due to his pricing, but I am not gonna be eating too much of that since I don’t love eating chalk. The matchup is good, and the price is great, but I think Houston is gonna have a ton of success on the ground vs. a Denver team that has allowed over 300 yards on the ground in the last 2 weeks and hasn’t allowed a 300-yard passer all year.
G-SPOT $: BLOUGH 40%
- Darnold 5%
- Kyle Allen 5%
- Carr 5%
You know I love to do Blough on Sundays! I watched this kid last weekend and was VERY impressed with him. I think people are forgetting one major fact, that game was against THE FUCKING BEARS ON NATIONAL TV ON THANKSGIVING WITH ZEROOOOOOOO DAYS OF CONTACT PREPARATION! All the kid had was a couple days of walk thrus! This matchup is against a Minnesota team who is allowing almost 300 passing yards per game over the last month, with MORE than a full week of prep and not on national TV. I expect a step forward from Blough this week and love the matchups for Jones and Kenny and think at $5200 on DK and 1% projected ownership (maybe higher after I have been blowing him all week) this is the #1 option to punt with, even over Tannehill and Darnold. Darnold is a good play at his price vs. the Dolphins, not much to say here, Carr sucks, but the Titans are giving up 331 passing yards per game over the last month, so it’s worth a stab at $5k and Kyle Allen makes for a really fun GPP play paired with CMC and Moore with the new coach, new motivation and something to prove vs. a shaky Atlanta pass D.
WEEK 14 NFL DFS RUNNING BACK
G-SPOT $$$: CMC 30%
G-SPOT $$$: HENRY 60%
- Chubb 10%
- Cook 5%
CMC is CMC and no need to explain why he’s a god, but as the season goes on, I am doing a tad more fading than usual due to price, ownership and wear and tear (similar to Gurley last year). I will have about 30% CMC and 60% Henry. Henry averages almost 6 yards a carry thru Nov and Dec throughout his career and is 8% owned every week. Just play him and ignore the matchup til the season ends. Chubb is a solid pay up option, and Cook is a sneeeeaky GPP play due to his injury concerns. Chubb is safe, Cook is sneakier, but I will only have a small stab on both since I am so overweight Henry.
G-SPOT $$: GORDON 35%
- FOURNETTE 20%
- Snell 10%
- Ekeler 5%
Matchup dream for Melly Mel. LAC should pound the rock down Jax throat this week, who are allowing about 7 YPC over the last month or so. I think we see 25 carries, 120 yards and 2 touches for Gordon this week on a team who is looking to shield their vulnerable QB. Ekeler is also in play on DK. I think you can even play both on the same lineup, honestly. The matchup is not ideal for Fournette, who has been slowing down a touch, only breaking the 100-yard barrier once since Week 5, but the volume and snaps are undeniable in a game that should stay close throughout. Snell has a great opportunity vs. Arizona’s pathetic D, but I prefer to attack them thru the air if possible, especially since his price has jumped.
G-SPOT $: WHITE (DK mostly, but not only) 40% DK, 5% FD
G-SPOT $: POWELL (if Bell out) – 90% if Bell out, 0% if he’s in, will skew ownership of all other players if Bell is out so will update in AM.
- Duke 10%
- Michel 5%
- Hyde 5%
I LOVE White this week on DK, although I know Jeff disagrees. I do fear that Bill will pound Michel 25 times this week vs. the KC D that sucks vs. the run, but I also don’t think that will work and KC will put NE in a position where they have to air it out to keep up. Between Brady being a bit banged up and not trusting his receivers as well as KC’s explosiveness, this screams track meet and that sets up great for White, who received 80% of snaps last week and has been trending up as we approach the playoffs, as usual. I will make the Powell part pretty clear here….If Bell is out, put him on 90% of lineups (same shit we said about Higbee last week). It’s a free fucking square, and he pairs like a fine wine with the Jets D. He’s better than Lev Bell. Bold prediction: if Bell misses, Powell will rush for more yards in this game than Bell has all year. Book it. Michel is worth a FD stab, since he could see 20 carries against a bad run D, but not on DK. Duke is a preferred play over Hyde, but don’t sleep on Hyde coming out of nowhere here. Duke is trending up of late and is by far the more talented back, but Denver has been getting gashed on the ground of late so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a ton of downhill running with Hyde, as Booger would say. Duke is to James White as Hyde is to Sony Michel, so we will have more Duke than Hyde…buuuut…..
WEEK 14 NFL DFS WIDE RECEIVER
G-SPOT $$$: JULIOOOOOO (it’s time) 80%
G-SPOT $$$: EDELMAN 40%
- ADAMS 15%
- Nuk 10%
- Godwin 5%
Ladies and Gentlemen……Once or twice a year, we get the call, and today is the day…..IT’S JULIO WEEK! I have avoided Julio all year. The only time we played him heavy was in Week 2 vs. Philly when he went for 128 and 2 and he crushed all the props and showdown slates, but this is the FIRST annual Julio week of 2019! What are the ingredients for a Julio slate breaking week? Well, let me lay it out for you:
- He must be coming off an amazing matchup where he shit the bed (flop vs. TB, check)
- The whole industry must have given up on him already (check)
- There must be a secondary receiver getting all the DFS love (Ridley, check)
- He must be matched up with an overrated corner with a big name (Bradberry, check)
- He must be projected at 5% owned or less (check)
- He must not be on the injury report (check)
- He must be home (check)
Take ur analytics and throw them out the window. He just checked every box on the Tommy G Julio Whisperer Model, so that’s all you need to know. ALL IN. Edelman is the only receiver Brady trusts in a shootout matchup with the Chiefs so I LOVE him this week. Adams is in a great spot but unfortunately will be underowned by me due to Julio and Edelman. Nuk is a nice hedge on the Watson Fade, and Godwin I get a taste of every week.
G-SPOT $$: PARKER 30%
G-SPOT $$: GOLLADAY 40%
- D.J. Moore 15%
- James Washington 10%
This is not point chasing with Parker this week. He is elite right now and not priced as high as other receivers doing less than him. The Jets should completely shut down the run, and Fitz should pepper Parker with 12 targets this week. Golladay is gonna piss all over this Minnesota secondary, and as long as our boy Blough doesn’t implode, this should be a monster day for Kenny G. D.J. Moore ties into the New Coach, New Motivation, Great Matchup category that we spoke about with Kyle Allen, while James Washington is the best upside target vs. the pathetic AZ D that made Goff look like Mahomes last week.
G-SPOT $: BOYD 25%
G-SPOT $: MARVIN JONES 25%
- DEDE 20%
- Robby Anderson 5%
- Tate 5%
Boyd is Jeff Mans’ love child this week, and I love the spot here too with his boy back at the helm and a great matchup in the slot where he will be guarded by a traffic cone. Marvin, I am not “in love with,” but for Blough to go off, Marvin will have to be heavily involved, so the double WR stack is what bumped my ownership of him up. DeDe every week til the season ends at WR for Jax, it’s been working so far and Chark should see a Casey Hayward shadow. Matchup isn’t great, but I like him the best of the Jax WRs. Robby is an upside play with big-play ability cheap, and Tate is a fairly safe punt with a touch of upside
WEEK 14 NFL DFS TIGHT END
G-SPOT $$$: DOYLE 20%
G-SPOT $$: MCDONALD 10%
G-SPOT $: IAN THOMAS 70%
I am playing 3 tight ends only this week. Thomas is $4k and $2500 on FD/DK respectively and saw 4 catches in a quarter last week. The free square punt at TE has been GOLD last couple weeks with Dweller, Higbee and now Thomas so I am all in (plus I got a lot of pricey guys I like so I need to spend down with Blough and Thomas to fit em). Doyle is in a monster spot this week so make sure u get as much of him as possible when you can fit him! You can’t run on TB, but u can throw on them and Indy has no WRs so he could break the slate, so get a taste. He also can be a huge leverage play if Thomas ends up coming in at 50% owned or some shit like we saw with Higbee last week and he flops. McDonald is basically “anybody vs. Arizona” play.
WEEK 14 NFL DFS DEFENSE
G-SPOT $$$: JETS 70%
G-SPOT $$$: RAVENS 25%
G-SPOT $: BUCS 5%
The Jets are going to fucking cause Havoc on Fitz this week, AS LONG AS JAMAL ADAMS PLAYS. I am assuming he plays, but if he misses, I will update in the AM and start diversifying my Ds. I think this is as confident as I have been all year in a defensive TD. Ravens produce every week no matter what, although, this is not an ideal spot. The Bucs are really cheap and should get some sacks as well as shut down the run, forcing Brissett into some bad spots.
Good Luck and Stay Cashin’