Tommy G’s Week 1 NFL DFS Breakdown!
- UPGRADE GUICE WITH ADRIAN PETERSON BEING BENCHED
What’s up, you fuckin’ degenerates! Football is back and we are ready to piss all over this fuckin season! A couple tips for Week 1 of the NFL…..
1) HERE ARE THE IMPORTANT HANDLES TO FOLLOW ON SOCIAL IF YOU ARE A NEW SUB:
- ME: @TommyG (Twitter) @TommyGDFS (Instagram)
- DFS SITE: @ElitefantasyHQ (Twitter & Instagram)
- BETTING SITE: @EliteWins (Twitter) @EliteAlerts (For betting article updates)
2) READ MY GPP SELECTION ARTICLE. It is the final section of my Full-Service NFL Guide, below the prop betting section. I think it is CRITICAL for you guys to read before entering GPPs; not only for Week 1 but for the whole year.
3) DON’T LOSE UR MIND THIS WEEK. Week 1 is like fucking Christmas for us degens, but we need to also remember, it is only 1 of 17 weeks (20 if you count playoffs) for us to make money. As amazing as it is to get off to a great start and have a big score to set the season up, it’s much worse to go 5X bigger than you planned, blow your bankroll Week 1 and be chasing from behind the rest of the year! I personally said I was only gonna play 3-4 grand this week, and next thing I know, I am looking at $15k in entry fees for this weekend. But I am going to try and scale this back somehow and bring it to the $4-6k range…..wish me luck. One of the tricks I am using is to play strictly FanDuel in Week 1 instead of FD and DK, to keep myself focused and in control……whether I pull it off is a completely different story.
4) AVOID QUESTIONABLE RB SITUATIONS. If you watched football Thursday, you probably were surprised at the Montgomery usage and production after a whole offseason of hearing he would be the bellcow. Don’t forget this when setting ur lineups. In the first week or two, we will see multiple situations where young studs get “lost” in the game plan and cede to veterans early on. Which ones will be the impossible question to answer, so I am going to be underexposed to chalky young backs and will take my shot on 1%ers with upside. WRs are usually the better place to take shots because one play can pay off their value, whereas RBs are usually more reliant on volume and game flow, so if you are wondering where Singletary, Miles Sanders, Guice and others are in the writeup….I like them…..I am just underexposing Week 1 due to the fact there are reliable veterans who could crush them the same way Mike Davis did.
5) DON’T BE AFRAID TO FADE SOME VALUE CHALK. The lineups build themselves this week, and it is because pricing is always the worst Week 1. So guys like Godwin, Dalvin, Engram, Curtis Samuel, etc. will be uber chalk due to being completely mispriced, but it’s football, and anything can happen. So if you can pivot over to some guys who are a touch more expensive, but will be 1/10th the ownership (like DJ Moore at 4% instead of Samuel at 30%), I think it is the smart move for GPPs.
6) R-E-L-A-X. I already know that by 1:30 pm on Sunday I will want to fly out and rip some people’s throats out on Twitter cause “Cook has two carries for three yards in the 2Q” or some shit like that. I am telling u this RIGHT NOW…..ur subscription does not include my Twitter. I have no problem blocking people nowadays cause I just don’t need the constant bitching cat avatar negativity in my life over one bad call or some dumb flukey shit that you wanna blame your life on me for. I am here to give you advice and help you build your lineups, BUT U CLICK THE FUCKING BUTTON, so if you wanna lose ur shit and attack on Twitter (when there’s a 99% chance that I am losing 10Xs what u are on that same play), I’m just gonna hit the block button. I used to be #TeamNoBlock, but honestly after seven years on Twitter, I just don’t need that shit in my life, so a jab or two here or there, fine, but if you think I’m gonna be ur fucking whipping boy cause u lost $8 on Dalvin Cook busting, go fuck yourself lol. Same applies for the chatroom.
7) HAVE FUN! If you are playing an amount of money that can send u into a tailspin if u don’t win, you’re doing this wrong. YES, we are here to make money and smash, but don’t forget to not let DFS destroy ur weekends and ruin ur life. This is a tough game where we only need to smash three or four weeks all season to make a profit, so play within ur means and enjoy the day.
LET’S GET TO IT……..
This is the list of who I believe to be the most owned guys at each position …keep in mind, this could be way off what actually ends up happening, but I have had a real knack for this so it should give you a decent gauge of what to expect.
QB: Jameis 20%, Kyler 15%, Lamar Jackson 15%
RB: Cook 101%, Carson 30%, CMC 25%, Ekeler 20%, Chubb 20%
WR: Godwin 25%, Samuel 25%, Boyd 20%, Thielen 20%, Julio 20%
TE: Henry 25%, Kelce 20%D: Baltimore 30%, Sea 15%, Philly 15%
Nothing to worry about outside of some extreme heat in a couple spots.
DISCLAIMER: I normally play 3-5 lineups on the bulk of my money, and the G-spot plays will be the CORE for those lineups, while the guys ranked in “OTHERS” and “FLIERS” will be used to fill out my main lineups (ideally, sometimes u need to punt with a nobody just to make the rest work). Once I get to my 6th-100th lineup for shit like the milly maker, ANYTHING GOES, including fades! I want to be as transparent as possible with you guys, but PLEASE don’t lose ur mind if I bink a small GPP with a guy who wasn’t one of my preferred plays. Because when u are building MME lineups, you are supposed to try and get exposure to everyone and everything and even build a bunch of lineups with guys u are fading as a hedge. This article is built for those of you setting 3-5 lineups, NOT the MME guys, so please act and read accordingly. I will have some updates most likely up until kickoff Sunday so keep your eye out for those too. OK, Let’s get it…..
WEEK 1 NFL DFS QUARTERBACK
G-SPOT: JAMEIS WINSTON. Jameis will most likely be the highest owned QB, but keep in mind that since people can only start 1 QB, they are never really insanely owned. I think Winston will come in at about 15-20%, and this game has all the makings of a complete shootout with two bad defenses. I prefer the Tampa side with Arians now calling the shots, being they are devoid of a running game and I love their weapons. I am as close to all in Jameis as I have been on a QB in years.
G-SPOT: BAKER MAYFIELD. Baker/OBJ will 100% be on one of my main teams, with the Titans having a strong run D and this connection being one play away from value at any moment. I think Baker and Beckham go a bit overlooked this week, and this is a fantastic spot for both of them to go off under the radar. I was on the fence about adding him to the G-Spot, but Jeff Mans put me over the edge.
1% OWNED G-SPOT: MATTHEW STAFFORD. Full disclosure, I am not a Stafford guy this year, BUT I love this spot at 1% owned this week. Arizona is gonna run a fast-paced offense with a TERRIBLE defense and a rookie QB, which should lead to a lot of possession for Detroit and good field position. Patrick Peterson and Alford are both out for AZ; Golladay and Marvin should eat on the outsides. The main concern here is twofold….will Kerryon run wild and kill the passing game value, or will Murray implode and this game becomes a blowout, resulting in Detroit running all 2H? As for the latter point, I am not overly concerned since the line is only 1 and Detroit is on the road. AZ should be able to put up enough to keep this interesting so I am not overly concerned with that. Whether Kerryon will dominate the FPTs for Detroit is a bit more worrisome, but Kerryon did not see 20 carries in a game once last year. So although I think he ticks up in carries substantially this year, I am not worried about him killing Stafford.
OTHER GOOD PLAYS:
- Lamar Jackson….Can’t ask for a better spot for Lamar. He will be very popular, but a game vs. the worst team in football where they should be playing from ahead lines up perfectly for Lamar to have a really strong game.
- Jimmy G….This game can’t shoot out without SF scoring, and they got the weapons and matchup to go nuts. TB has been a sieve for years defensively, and Jimmy is in a fantastic spot to go nuts. The thing that put him below Baker and Lamar is I really love the running game for SF in this matchup and think all three backs will be involved and successful, making it less necessary for them to chuck it all game.
- Rivers….I know the line sucks and we are down on LAC a bit this year, but I think the weapons, combined with the lack of Melvin Gordon, will lead Rivers’ to set career highs in passing volume this year. I don’t think he will be as efficient, but I think he will be chucking it more than in years past, and this week is no exception.
Underexposed: Ryan, Mahomes, Wentz, Cousins, Cam
WEEK 1 NFL DFS RUNNING BACK
G-SPOT: CMC. This is not a pick that needs much analysis. CMC is the one stud back that I am 100% confident in this week. Not much analysis needed here. At a position where I wanna play it safe, CMC is the safest game on the board.
G-SPOT: DALVIN COOK. I know, this one is boring. Cook is somewhat of a no brainer, along with Carson, and I love them both this week. But the ownership is gonna be a bit insane for these two. Cook is in a complete smash spot at home against the team that gave up the most points to running backs last year, and he should devour them in the passing game where ATL is atrocious every year. He is about $2k underpriced, and sometimes you gotta just eat the chalk and keep it movin’. I think this is one of those spots. I am going to prob have him on two of my main four lineups, which I think is about even with the field.
G-SPOT: FOURNETTE. I get tagged as being anti-Fournette, which is wrong. I am anti-Fournette for SEASONAL because I predicted when he was drafted that he will be hurt constantly his whole career, and I was right. But from a DFS perspective, I am a fan. This matchup is crazy good for Fournette, who no longer has anyone behind him to cut into his playing time and will not only have big upside but big volume and a huge snap share. Jacksonville is gonna wanna establish the run in this game to slow up KC, and I think they will have some success doing it. Fournette is the one guy of the three G-spot plays who I can see flying a bit under the radar so he is one of my favorite plays on the entire slate and a nice pivot off Cook chalk.
1% OWNED G-SPOT: GIO BERNARD. NOW, keep in mind this new G-spot format is isolating my favorite play first, then a complete longshot unowned play I love. Gio is always a big risk, but they just paid this man A LOT OF MONEY and the game flow seems to fit his skill set, considering Seattle should kill them and Gio should be in in a lot of passing situations. There are a bunch of other RB plays I like a lot, but none that will be 1% owned like Gio. They didn’t just give him $5 million a year to have him rot behind Mixon on the bench.
- Carson… Carson is a pretty obvious play for most, but the thing that kept him out of the G-Spot is my fear of Rashaad Penny. DON’T GET ME WRONG, I love Carson this week and will have a ton of him, but I think he will rival Cook in ownership and I can just see Penny pissing us off all fucking day, especially late. I love the matchup and his volume should be there, but he carries a TINY BIT more risk than the big three for me.
- Lev Bell….Who the fuck knows what to expect from a guy who missed a whole year and wasn’t active in the preseason, but one thing we do know is the Jets should try to get him in the box every chance they get. Montgomery is gonna get some burn for sure so I wouldn’t expect 25 touches out the gate, but it is possible. You have to have some exposure, but I don’t think you need to force him in.
- Ekeler….I am really high on Justin Jackson as an overlooked value back all year so my temptation is to fade Ekeler at his high ownership, but the spot is just too good. I will be underexposed to the field, but he’s going against one of the worst teams in the NFL defending the pass out of the backfield so he has to make the list.
- Justin Jackson….I think at 1% owned this is worth a flier, considering he should see 40% of the work, has a shot at being the goalline back and also getting some catches. I wouldn’t put it on a main lineup, but I definitely think after this week people will realize JJ and Ekeler is more of a true timeshare.
- Tevin Coleman…..Similar to Jackson, Colemen is the overlooked back in this backfield. Everyone is high on Breida because he is #1 on the depth chart, but I think that is FakeNews. I think Coleman is the back to own in SF, and he will find the endzone this week.
- Justice Hill….Similar to Jackson, this is a 1% owned upside flier. The bottom line is Hill’s the most talented back on this team and a game against the worst team in the NFL with a lead all 2H might be a good time to save Ingram and see what you have in the rook. I think he is active on 3rd downs early in the game and could see about 8-10 carries in the 2H if Baltimore pulls away.
Underexposed: Saquaon, Kerryon, David Johnson, Ingram, Zeke
WEEK 1 NFL DFS WIDE RECEIVER
G-SPOT: CHRIS GODWIN. You better believe I am gonna overexpose to the man I expect to end the season as the #1 WR on the Bucs in an elite matchup with a high total. Godwin will be owned, he is underpriced and was a seasonal darling, but I don’t care. I will probably have about 60% Godwin this week, and he will certainly make two of my four lineups, possibly three of the four.
G-SPOT: ODELL BECKHAM. I have NO FUCKING CLUE what OBJ’s ownership will be…..it could be anywhere from 10%-35%, and I wouldn’t be surprised at either extreme. There is no way Cleveland isn’t going to work to get Beckham involved early and often, and a matchup with Tennessee, who is fairly stout in the defensive run stoppers, should lead to Baker playing with his new toy all game. There should definitely be a big play somewhere mixed in here that will pay off the price tag we are paying for OBJ. OBJ’s hip is a slight concern, but the fact he is not on the injury report leaves him in the G-spot, but I may keep him off my main lineup.
G-SPOT: GOLLADAY. I have this odd obsession with the Detroit passing game this week while the rest of the industry appears to be on the rushing attack, and I get it. Kerryon could easily THRASH this pathetic AZ run D, but I am just not a “Kerryon guy.” No Peterson or Alford should allow for Stafford to pick the outsides apart, and Golladay is a complete mismatch for these backup corners. Honestly, I could see him putting up top 3 WR numbers this week; we just need AZ to put some points on the board to keep Detroit throwing all game.
1% G-SPOT: MARVIN JONES. If you want exposure to the Lions passing game at a cheap price and no ownership, Marvin is your guy. We know who Marvin Jones is. He is a tad inconsistent with his production, but he is a redzone monster.
- DJ Moore….I think everyone is going to be on Samuel, and I like the price point on DK for sure. But I think this is a great spot to pivot UP to a far less owned DJ Moore, who is #ThingsTommyGInvented. Moore is the far better player, and you will have much less ownership in a similar matchup.
- Boyd….I will probably be a tad underexposed to Boyd, who will be one of the highest owned WRs in the league this week. His numbers are not as good without AJG, and I think Seattle is going to game plan to eliminate him. There is a chance the Bengals don’t score in this game, and if they do, I would project like 10-14 points so the TD equity tomorrow is low enough for me to be comfortable with a fade even though he may have 10 targets.
- Evans/Keenan/Julio/Thielen…..Evans is in a great spot, being we love Winston so much. I don’t love the price since I think him and Godwin are interchangeable and Godwin is far cheaper. Keenan Allen I think is in a great spot, but Evans, Julio and him are in a similar boat where I do like them this week, but I have them below OBJ so it’s tough to get to them. Thielen/Diggs situation is one we need to monitor since Diggs is questionable. I am probably going to get some Thielen either way and will most likely underexpose to Diggs unless we hear he is 100% come kickoff.
- Shepard…There should be a volume uptick with no Tate, but I am overexposing to Engram so much that it will limit my Shepard shares a tad, but he is a fine play.
- Jon Brown….Very cheap and always has big-play upside, but always runs the risk of completely busting. I REALLY LIKE JOHN BROWN this week with this matchup against the Jets, who are susceptible to the deep ball. Brown is a boom or bust play, but Josh Allen’s canon leads to more boom upside than bust upside.
- Richardson….This pick scares the shit out of me because I think I am wayyyyy higher than the industry on him. Someone needs to catch the ball in Washington, and he is the vet on the squad. We love to target Philly corners so this matchup is elite. I am gonna be overweight Richardson, and trust me….I am not comfortable with it, but YOLO.
- Crowder/Cobb/Quinn….All these guys are the same for me, low upside, decent volume expectation, cheap and fairly safe to not kill your lineup, compared to Brown and Richardson who have GPP winning ability.
Underexposed: Dede, Samuel, Diggs, Lockett, Kirk, Tyreek
WEEK 1 NFL DFS TIGHT END
G-SPOT: ENGRAM. I think Engram at his $4800 price on DK is a joke and his volume is gonna be nuts. There are three tight ends I am in love with this week, and I will be playing almost ZERO of anyone else, so they all made the G-SPOT. But Engram is going to be my highest owned by a lot, and then when I pay up, I will go with Kelce and Kittle, depending on lineup construction.
G-SPOT: KELCE. Kelce should eat this week against the Jags, who like to funnel everything into the middle of the field with their elite corners. He is expensive but worth every penny.
G-SPOT: KITTLE. You have to be a little worried about all the additional weapons on the outside for SF this year and how that will affect Kittle not being the only game in town, but I don’t think it hurts. This week vs. Tampa is a week you need to make sure you get some shares of Kittle. The decision between these three guys is an impossible one, but I have it Engram, Kelce and Kittle (in that order) based on value and safety.
1% G-SPOT: Not taking big chances at tight end on main three lineups. I have a couple I will add below, but none in the G-SPOT range.
- OJ Howard…Obviously, I LOVE OJ and will have him in a lot of TB stacks, but Engram graded out a decent amount above him this week due to guaranteed volume. However, OJ is always a good play!
- Hockenson….He’s fine if you need a punt, looked pretty good this preseason and I like the Detroit air attack.
- Njoku…I love his skill set and think he could get some redzone looks Sunday.
Underexposed: Ertz (I’m paying up or down), Andrews, Hunter Henry (ownership)
WEEK 1 NFL DFS DEFENSE
G-SPOT$$$: BALTIMORE. I have three rules for defenses: don’t eat chalk, try to avoid defenses on the road and don’t overspend…..well, Baltimore fits all those “DON’Ts” and yet I am still playing them LOL. That’s how fucking bad Miami is.
G-SPOT$$: SEATTLE. This may be my favorite Defensive play, price considered. $3100 on DK, at home and should be far lower owned than Baltimore, so when it comes to the “Defense System” they are a perfect fit. Many new additions to an already great D.
G-SPOT$: CAROLINA. I do not love Carolina this week, but at $3500 on FanDuel, it makes it tough not to take a flier on them if you love your lineup.
- Detroit…If Kyler Murray implodes, this can not only be a great play, but this could be a fantastic leverage play. I like Detroit as my punt D on DK and Carolina on FD, due to the price differences on both sites.
- Tampa….If you need an extreme punt, defenses vs. bad teams in even games tend to score more than expected. You can do worse than TB at min price.
Underexposed: Eagles, Chargers
Good Luck and Stay Cashin’