Tommy G’s Divisional Round NFL DFS Breakdown!
Divisional Round NFL DFS Breakdown
What’s up, you fuckin’ degenerates! The playoffs are here, and we are ready to piss all over this fuckin’ postseason just like the regular season! A couple tips for NFL…..
1) HERE ARE THE IMPORTANT HANDLES TO FOLLOW ON SOCIAL IF YOU ARE A NEW SUB:
- ME: @TommyG (Twitter) @TommyGDFS (Instagram)
- DFS SITE: @ElitefantasyHQ (Twitter & Instagram)
- BETTING SITE: @EliteWins (Twitter) @EliteAlerts (For betting article updates)
2) READ MY GPP SELECTION ARTICLE. It is the final section of my Full-Service NFL Guide, below the prop betting section. I think it is CRITICAL for you guys to read before entering GPPs.
3) R-E-L-A-X. I already know that by 1:30 pm on Sunday I will want to fly out and rip some people’s throats out on Twitter cause “Cook has two carries for three yards in the 2Q” or some shit like that. I am telling u this RIGHT NOW…..ur subscription does not include my Twitter. I have no problem blocking people nowadays cause I just don’t need the constant bitching cat avatar negativity in my life over one bad call or some dumb flukey shit that you wanna blame your life on me for. I am here to give you advice and help you build your lineups, BUT U CLICK THE FUCKING BUTTON, so if you wanna lose ur shit and attack on Twitter (when there’s a 99% chance that I am losing 10Xs what u are on that same play), I’m just gonna hit the block button. I used to be #TeamNoBlock, but honestly, after seven years on Twitter, I just don’t need that shit in my life, so a jab or two here or there, fine, but if you think I’m gonna be ur fucking whipping boy cause u lost $8 on Dalvin Cook busting, go fuck yourself lol. Same applies to the chatroom.
4) HAVE FUN! If you are playing an amount of money that can send u into a tailspin if u don’t win, you’re doing this wrong. YES, we are here to make money and smash, but don’t forget to not let DFS destroy ur weekends and ruin ur life. This is a tough game where we only need to smash three or four weeks all season to make a profit, so play within ur means and enjoy the day.
DISCLAIMER: I normally play 3-5 lineups on the bulk of my money, and the G-spot plays will be the CORE for those lineups, while the guys ranked in “OTHERS” will be used to fill out my main lineups (ideally, sometimes u need to punt with a nobody just to make the rest work). Once I get to my 6th-100th lineup for shit like the milly maker, ANYTHING GOES, including fades! I want to be as transparent as possible with you guys, but PLEASE don’t lose ur mind if I bink a small GPP with a guy who wasn’t one of my preferred plays. Because when u are building MME lineups, you are supposed to try and get exposure to everyone and everything and even build a bunch of lineups with guys u are fading as a hedge. This article is built for those of you setting 3-5 lineups, NOT the MME guys, so please act and read accordingly. I will have some updates most likely up until kickoff Sunday so keep your eye out for those too. OK, Let’s get it…..
This is the list of who I believe to be the most owned guys at each position… keep in mind, this could be way off what actually ends up happening, but I have had a real knack for this so it should give you a decent gauge of what to expect.
QB: Lamar 30%, Mahomes 30%
RB: Damien 30%, Aaron Jones 25%, Mostert 25%
WR: Tyreek 30%, Adams 25%, Deebo 20%
TE: Kittle 20%, Kelce 17%
D: SF D 20%
- Pretty much fine all over
DIVISIONAL ROUND NFL DFS QUARTERBACK
- Lamar….Not much to say here, dude is God, it’s just an ownership debate.
- Mahomes…Mahomes has not put up a big game since his injury. Maybe the week off helps him a bit, but for me, I am either paying up for Lamar or down to Jimmy G.
- Rodgers….He and Russ are both in similar spots. This game is going to be FRIGID, and I can really see a game where both teams have success on the ground, so I will be attacking Jones and Homer here due to what I believe to be a 20-17 final with limited attempts from the QBs.
- Russ….See GB
- Cousins….There is upside here if you think the 49ers kill em. In fact, I think on my 2 teams, I will have one all in Cook and Jimmy and one all in Cousins/Diggs/Thielen with Mostert.
GPP WIN OR GO HOME
- Jimmy G….As I mentioned in the Lamar write up, I like Jimmy to sling it today in a game where he struggles early and then is throwing a lot in the 2H. His price is the main reason he is intriguing cause we are saving almost $3k off Lamar, and if Lamar goes for 30 and Jimmy goes for 20, I like my odds with the extra $3k to upgrade elsewhere. Minn has been good vs. the pass, but their secondary can be exposed.
- Watson…..Won’t have much just cause I never roster him, but I think KC manhandles them, so there is upside here in the 2H of the game in garbage time.
- Tannehill….I think this game is a route, and Tanny may completely flop even with a big deficit. Can’t see them putting many drives together today.
DIVISIONAL ROUND NFL DFS RUNNING BACK
- Cook…I am all in Cook this week and really like the Vikings to win this game. As long as the Vikes stay close, Cook will see 25+ touches, and that is the gameflow I am banking on in this writeup.
- Henry….I am the biggest Henry fan in America, but I think the gameflow kills him here in a route.
- Jones….Love Jones this weekend. Both teams will run a ton, and I am basically locking in Jones, Cook and either Edwards or Homer as my 3rd on almost all my teams.
- Damien….He will be very highly owned and for good reason, but I see the Vet Shady and crew eating into Williams enough that he has a good game, but not a slate breaker.
- Mostert….I am more leaning towards the 9er passing game here.
- Homer….I like this play this week, great value here. I know he may get vultured with Lynch at the goal line, but GB is a team you can run on and we need to throw out last week where he faced Philly, who is a brick wall on the ground.
- Hyde….One thing you can do on KC is run on them, and Houston is going to want to feed Hyde. If they can stay close, he could see 20 carries. 26-116-1 last time they faced off.
- Duke….He’s fine, prefer Hyde.
- Lynch….GPP only; gonna be out-carried substantially by Homer.
GPP WIN OR GO HOME
- Edwards….I fucking LOVE this play for GPPs. You want Ingram CONFIRMED IN for this play, especially to drop ownership, cause I think Baltimore routes Tenn and Ingram is babied. Expect a big 2H from Edwards if not the whole game, depending on Ingram status.
- No real “fade” cause ownership will be spread out, but definitely a touch lower on Henry and Damien Williams than the field.
DIVISIONAL ROUND NFL DFS WIDE RECEIVER
I am not paying up much at WR this week and spending on RB mostly. Adams is Aaron’s blankie, but I see a lower scoring game here. Tyreek is gonna be the sexy GPP play, but when is the last time he paid off? Dhop and the whole Texans WR core is up in the air. Wait for an update Sunday morning on this one since we don’t know if Stills or Fuller is in, and this will affect my exposure. All 3 of these guys play Sunday so should be easy to swap based on news.
- Dhop (update in morning)
- Deebo…My #1 WR value on the board. I love his upside and explosiveness, and he is the #1 WR in SF. I have as much Deebo this week as I did DK Metcalf last week.
- DK Metcalf…You know I love this dude, and although I think this is a grind it out game, DK doesn’t need much volume to pay off. He is a big body with big-play upside so he can smash with 4-5 catches.
- Thielen….Everyone needs to relax with this injury…..he cut his ankle….relax, Thielen will be fine, and he is my fav option in the Minny passing game.
- Diggs….I will have a lot of him and Thielen in my Cousins’ stacks but am not overly excited about his prospects this week. I think Thielen is a tad better of an option.
- Lockett…Unlike DK, Lockett is a guy I never play, and this week, I will be underexposed again.
- David Moore….There is not much down there under $4k, but Moore is my usual go-to guy when I need to punt in a big game. He plays about 60-70% of the snaps and averages almost 20 yards per catch, so similar to DK, he won’t need a lot of volume to pay off his price. I think we got a nice little 3-60 game here for Moore with TD upside. He is a price filler punt, but a decent one.
- Lazard….I don’t know if he will be as heavily used as in prior weeks, but if you can fit him over Moore, I prefer him. I just find myself needing a sub $4k punt and am waiting on Houston news for potential Carter play.
5% GPP WIN OR GO HOME
- Carter…..Morning update…if Stills and Fuller sit, I am all in.
- Not many fades here but will be underexposed to high priced WRs.
DIVISIONAL ROUND NFL DFS TIGHT END
- Kittle…This is the time Kittle is gonna shine, and I think the game stays close so he will be Jimmy’s blankie all day. Have him graded far above Kelce at similar price.
- Kelce…The main option for KC, but I stopped paying for KC offensive players. There are just too many of them, and they aren’t as explosive as they were last year or 1H of this year. They tend to flop more than smash, and when they do, well, they are chalk.
- Andrews….I will have a decent amount of Andrews this week and think he has a big game IF Tenn can keep this close. We will probably need Andrews to get off early, but I think he does. Tenn is bottom 5 vs. the TE so good matchup here. 2nd favorite TE for price.
- Hou Situation….I wanna play Fells REALLY BAD, but we have Q tags on him and Akins…..need to wait till tomorrow morning and hope one of the two misses….but Fells is safe even if Akins plays.
- Firkser….He oddly was the TE running all the routes while Jonnu stayed into block all week. In a game where they will be trailing, just gotta assume he will see a lot of slot work again at min price.
DIVISIONAL ROUND NFL DFS DEFENSE
- Ravens….ALL THE WAY THE FUCK IN
- Minnesota….If you need to punt
- GB/SEA both fine
Good Luck and Stay Cashin’