PGA DFS is in full swing! Sports betting pro @realfrankbrank uses his model to identify top plays in each price range for your GPP lineups!!
The Course: East Lake Golf Club
East Lake, per the data, is a ball strikers paradise. Strokes gained putting takes about a 30% reduction in value this week while that difference is entirely made up across driving, approach, and chipping. That’s not too surprising considering the best players in the field typically succeed in these areas and we’re getting the best players in the world at the Tour Championship.
We’ll be switching up the format this week considering the top-30 golfers come to East Lake and it gives us little opportunity to make money in the DFS world. I will say that the best way to make money, in my opinion, is to not play DFS this week with the 30 player field and strange format.
That being said, a lot of you will want to play so let’s get into it. The way I see it, there’s two options available for your DFS lineups. One is less optimal to winning a GPP, the other is more optimal to winning a GPP, but highly unlikely to add to your DFS bankroll.
Option 1: Play Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm in one lineup.
That’s right, you can play the two highest salaried guys, who will have the stroke advantage on the rest of the field, inside one lineup. With that decision, considering their price, you’ll be forced to fill in the rest of your lineup with guys at the bottom of the board, most of which are still well above average golfers.
By using these two guys, you essentially give yourself a 60% chance to have the winner of the tournament in your lineup which you’ll certainly need to make money this week. You’ll also assure your lineup to be a highly owned variation of which many others may and most likely will have.
That means you’ll be less likely to win a GPP tournament, but more likely to profit some amount of money. I’ll include a sample lineup below.
Option 2: Avoid playing Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm entirely.
Again, by avoiding these two, you are giving yourself a much lower chance to have the winning golfer in your lineup. For example, if you could include the entire rest of the field in your lineup, all 28 remaining golfers, you’d only stand a 40% chance to have the winner in your lineup. Hence, when only choosing six of those remaining 28 golfers, your odds of having the winning golfer are much, much lower than Option 1.
That being said, you’ll at least give yourself a chance to own a lineup that is more unique. You are also much less likely to make any money given the tournament format and 30 player field. A sample lineup is below.
In all, you are much better off either keeping the money in your bankroll and using it in the coming weeks given the PGA Tour will not stop and we’ll have full field events over the next few weeks, including the US Open. My recommendation if you do play is to reduce your outlay in general and just hold tight until we get a chance to maximize our edge in the coming weeks.