PGA DFS is in full swing! Sports betting pro @realfrankbrank uses his model to identify top plays in each price range for your GPP lineups!!
The Course: Muirfield Village
In the years that we have strokes-gained data, the top players in the field at Muirfield Village have gained more strokes around the greens than off the tee. That’s quite a difference from the average PGA Tour course.
Hence, we’ll be emphasizing those that are good at the inbetween game throughout this week.
Bryson DeChambeau: $11,100 (+$1,312)
Last Ownership: 27%
SG Ranking: 1st OTT | 29th APP | 75th ATG | 7th PTT
Bryson’s ownership should take a bit of a hit considering the field this week could not be more opposite than his last event, which he won. He will still likely be in the lower 20% range; however, with how much excess value there is on his price, it’s difficult not to play him in most lineups. Surely, his distance advantage will be a little less at Muirfield Village. It’s an advantage nonetheless.
The obvious other area to like Bryson is his putting is much better than most are aware. Given the randomness in putting, it’s not something you want to gamble on; however, it’s better to have the skill than to lack it.
Bryson is still plenty playable at this price range, but I can’t blame anyone from avoiding the ownership boost he’s gotten recently.
Justin Thomas: $10,900 (+$354)
Last Ownership: 14%
SG Ranking: 15th OTT | 2nd APP | 13th ATG | 64th PTT
JT lost in a playoff last week, so we should see his ownership jump a bit even though the field is much better. JT is the best tee-to-green player in the world right now and can get as hot as anyone making birdies throughout a round.
Thomas did struggle on Sunday with driver accuracy down the stretch, which will likely play a more important role as the course and greens continue to firm up this week. Longer rough off the fairway and around the greens will punish guys with driver woes at greater rates this week.
There is some excess value at JT’s price under 11k, but there’s better options at this upper tier.
Rory McIlroy: $10,700 (+$680)
Last Ownership: 14%
SG Ranking: 3rd OTT | 33rd APP | 2nd ATG | 35th PTT
Rory is the guy I’d play most in this upper range. His ownership with this field and recent “struggles” will drop his ownership relative to the top of this range despite him still being the best player in the world.
The thing my model likes most at Memorial is Rory’s new found chipping prowess. Chipping around the green is getting about a 40% boost to the average PGA course in my model. With his great driving, great ball striking, top tier chipping, and slightly lower price, there isn’t a better option at the top of this field than Rory.
No excess value.
Daniel Berger: $8,700 (+$1,150)
Last Ownership: 10%
SG Ranking: 38th OTT | 20th APP | 14th ATG | 11th PTT
Berger loses most of his strokes to the elite players in the world off the tee. With driving taking a bit of a hit with these fast, trundling fairways at Muirfield Village, Berger becomes an elite player. He has the sixth-best short game in the field while maintaining his top-20 status on approach.
Since February, Berger hasn’t finished worse than ninth and he’s not even in the $9k range. This is likely due to him being underpriced in the betting market, where much of these DraftKings prices are derived.
With this field, I don’t see a lot of ownership going towards Berger this week and this 10-12% range should hold steady. He’s underpriced by about $1,000 per my model, so he’s impossible not to play across the board.
Abraham Ancer: $8,200 (+$236)
Last Ownership: 18%
SG Ranking: 11th OTT | 4th APP | 57th ATG | 63rd PTT
The thing to like most about Ancer this week is his elite iron play. At 11th off the tee, he really doesn’t get enough credit for holding on to an average distance and elite accuracy. At Muirfield Village, it should give him plenty of birdie looks throughout the week.
The short game is less than impressive at 57th chipping and 63rd putting. Nonetheless, he’s worth the shot at $8,200 in most of your lineups. His ball striking makes me much less worried about Ancer missing the cut. If the putts start to fall, he can make a run at a top-five finish this week.
There was a lot of talk about Harbour Town being the perfect fit for someone like Ancer, which turned out to be true, but his ownership should dip considering he’s been absent for a couple weeks and the field strength is much improved.
Billy Horschel: $7,500 (+$264)
Last Ownership: 9%
SG Ranking: 17th OTT | 87th APP | 55th ATG | 12th PTT
What’s to like about Billy Horschel? He’s been well above average and improving in areas that lead to wins on the PGA Tour. What’s not to like? He’s not great in the areas that prove most important this week.
At just 87th in approach and 55th chipping, it’s difficult to see why my model likes Horschel this week. A stroke gained is a stroke gained, though, and Horschel is still gaining quite a bit outside of those areas. You wouldn’t know it from the coverage as I do not believe we saw a single Horschel shot last week, but he finished T7.
On his way to T7, Horschel actually did gain three strokes on approach and kept his well above average driving and putting statistics. That will be the recipe again this week but at this price with such low ownership, it’s hard not to gamble on another decent finish from Horschel.
Adam Hadwin: $7,400 (+$406)
Last Ownership: 16%
SG Ranking: 78th OTT | 28th APP | 59th ATG | 9th PTT
Adam Hadwin was nearly the first round leader last week until Morikawa swooped in and shot a great round later Thursday. Hadwin limped into the clubhouse Sunday at just T35 after having a couple bad rounds Friday and Saturday.
That being said, there’s plenty to like about Hadwin’s progress as of late. His area of struggle is obviously off the tee as he lacks the power and distance of the top players in the world. However, his approach play and putting abilities can keep him in a ball striker’s course like Muirfield Village that drastically hurts those who miss greens and fairways.
Hadwin has only missed one cut in the 2020 season over 11 events. It’s difficult, at this price, not to grab someone as consistent as him.
Harris English: $7,300 (+$816)
Last Ownership: 1%
SG Ranking: 33rd OTT | 51st APP | 30th ATG | 17th PTT
After testing positive for COVID-19 two weeks ago, Harris English was forced to withdraw heading into the tournament. I think that is going to provide us with quite a bit of value this week.
As you can see above, English is quite a bit above average in every applicable stat category. His incredibly underpriced odds in the betting market are allowing us to get a crazy low price on an all-around gamer like English on DraftKings this week.
He’s finished inside the top-10 five times over 13 events in 2020. He also ranks 10th overall on the PGA Tour this season in total strokes gained per round. English should be at the bottom of the $8k range considering his consistency and potential to pop up on the top of leaderboards.
As usual, there’s a ton of golfers throughout this range to take some shots at. However, I’ll list out my best perceived options below.
Bud Cauley: $6,600 (+$662) | Carlos Ortiz: $6,400 (+$586) | Brian Stuard: $6,500 (+$561) | Stewart Cink: $6,100 (+$536) | Adam Long: $6,400 (+$515)
Feel free to reach out on Twitter (@realfrankbrank) with any questions or sample lineups you may have. Below are some sample lineups of my own.