One week in the books and we are off and running! I took a deep dive into this Saturday’s DFS slate with game previews for each game. And look, the haters and losers, of which there are many, might be saying: “Duke, you’re barely in the top half of your own league. What the hell do you know anyway?”
Hey haters and losers, of which there are many, thanks for subscribing! HAHA and I deserve all the good natured shit-talking. That’s what fantasy football is all about. Keep it coming!
Yes, I do currently sit 9th in the table and we had some spectacular performances this past weekend as well as some surprises! Did you see Erik Pieters having THAT good of a game? I didn’t. Sure he made sense to play in DFS at his meagre price but to take up a valuable roster spot in FPL? NEVER!
We’ll focus on who is outperforming their salary, potential transfers and talk more about the Wild Card, which I might need already but FIRST, the standings…
|Rank||Team & Manager||GW||TOT|
|1||Who Ate All Depays?||104||104|
|3||Save it For Later||101||101|
|5||Bad Bald Man||92||92|
|6||The Lolita Express||89||89|
|8||Harry Kane’s Army||83||83|
|9||Rooney’s Hair Plugs||76||76|
|11||The Mega Powers||75||75|
|12||We won it 6 times||73||73|
|16||Pain in the Arse||67||67|
|18||Sign da Ting||65||65|
|19||Alex’s crashing hogs||62||62|
Big shout out to the Who ate all the Depay’s and RockULikeAHarryKane. Not only did their team’s ball out, but those team names…
For Depay, it was the crucial move of Captaining Raheem Sterling and his three goal performance. For Kane, it was Harry Kane’s two goal performance, but also a well balanced team with everyone contributing.
REMINDER: This is a 10 month season. There is no reason to panic just yet…maybe after this weekend we can panic!
So what was the NUT squad you could have built?
The big takeaways here are the attackers. Ashley Barnes proved to be good value but at 6.5 he made only 3.4% of lineups WORLD WIDE! The heavy favorites predictably produced results with Sterling, Salah and Kane making the best 11 in Week One. On defense, as we know, it’s a bit of a crap shoot. Whereas I think it might be a reasonable strategy to change a forward in and out every week with your free transfer to try to pick off a goal, defense is a LONG TERM strategy.
If you rostered Chris Mepham I hate you. Hint: no one did – well, 1.5% of teams worldwide did, and of that 1.5%, I would venture to guess 99.9% are Bournemouth fans and at least some of his family members. Even Chris Mepham didn’t roster Chris Mepham!
How did my team do you ask? Meh
I was heavy on Bournemouth this week with Fraser and King. Obviously I was disappointed there. I picked up five goals from my midfielders (worth more than Forwards remember!) but it wasn’t enough to move too much up the leaderboard.
Hey, remember when I said spending up on GK is fine because they do produce value for their price over the course of a season and never get hurt?? Yeah, well, Alisson leaves the game in the 30th minute with an injury that will keep him out for 4-8 weeks. RIP. So there goes my free transfer.
As a reminder, you can always make more than one transfer per week but it’s going to cost ya 4pts per transfer. Choose wisely.
Here is this weekend’s game schedule:
Arsenal get the week kicked off bright and early on Saturday morning and are the prohibitive favorites on the slate. Other notable favorites:
Players who OVERperformed their xG (expected Goals)
- Raheem Sterling — xG = 1.52; Actual Goals = 3
- Ashley Barnes — xG = 0.68; Actual Goals = 2
- Harry Kane — xG = 0.88; Actual Goals = 2
Harry Kane is an example of why I don’t use xG a ton in my breakdowns. Based on statistical probabilities, Harry Kane should have scored less than one single goal on his eight shots last weekend?? No chance. He had two goals but could have – should have – scored four!
But I digress.
How about those who UNDERperformed based on their xG?
- Bobby Firmino — xG 0.78; Actual Goals = 0
- Callum Wilson — xG 0.69; Actual Goals = 0
- Che Adams — xG 0.52; Actual Goals = 0 (and an early sub!)
What can we draw from this info?
Typically we take this as a good sign and predictor of future success. These players were getting in good areas but weren’t finishing their chances.
Take Callum Wilson, for example. I would venture to guess 98% of his xG is from the chance he had late in the second half that eventually led to Bournemouth’s goal. He had his back to goal on a set piece. The ball was jumbling around and happened to fall at his feet for him to shoot on the full turn. Well, he kind of shanked it and Henderson made a good save. The ball bounced out and Mepham powered it home.
I would venture to say that more often than not Wilson puts that one away. He was in a good area. He had a good chance.
- Pedro – 5
- Rose – 4
- Mount – 4
- Mahrez – 4
- Pogba – 4
- Maddison – 15
- Lamela – 10
- Kiko Femenia – 4
- Ward-Prowse – 4
These are players to target based on their next four to five games who will create value.
- Matt Ryan – BHA
Are Brighton really going to be good? He has a decent run of games and is cheap at 4.5.
- Nick Pope – BUR
Burnley are back to playing Burnley football. Another cheap GK at 4.5.
- Tom Heaton – AVL
Yep, another GK. Currenly I have one scrub and one stud. I’m wondering if that’s really a sound strategy considering the relative limited variance between the stud and the very good GK. Right now, I’m paying four for Button when I could have any of the three listed above for 4.5 and I wouldn’t have had to use my free transfer to get Alisson out!
- Alexander-Arnold – LIV
I actually love that he didn’t have the best game last week. Let people drop off him. At 7k, he’s a bargain based on their upcoming fixture list.
- Zinchenko – MCI
I haven’t mentioned him yet in any previews but at 5.5 he’s significant savings over other options. He seems to have locked down the LB role for now. Ride him.
- Van Dijk – LIV
It looks easy when the big man scores a goal. He provides value in other ways as well.
- Maguire – MU
This boy is massive and it looks like United may have a formidable back four to challenge with. The clean sheet against Chelsea is encouraging. He’s on the cheaper side at 5.5.
- Martial – MU
Get some Tony in your life. No Lukaku. Martial playing through the middle. Pressing style. If you didn’t get on him to start, use that transfer now. Reminder, goals are worth more points from midfielders and he’ll bag some goals.
- B Silva – MCI
Part of me wants to say wait one more week and hope he doesn’t start so you get him at a cheaper price but the upside is so large right now with Bernardo sitting at eight pounds. He can do everything Mahrez does and more, and currently Mahrez is a top 10 player.
- Maddison – LEI
If I didn’t have to change out Alisson I was going to bring in Maddison to my team. He was my last cut before settling on my roster and I’m already regretting it. 15 crosses!!! Assists are going to come. Goals will come. Seven pounds is too cheap.
- Ings – SOU
YEP! I’m not a huge Danny Ings guy but over the next five games he’ll have plenty of opportunities to score goals. We need to look long term knowing we will be penalized if making too many transfers. Che Adams looks like a good player and Southampton will create chances. And Ings is only six pounds.
- Jimenez – WOL
At 7.5, I still think he provides value. He’ll find his way on the scoresheet 2-3 times over the next five games and return value. Tough matchup this week with United but look past that. There are chances.
- Pukki – NOR
The one who got away. I had Pukki/Maddison until nearly the day before lock when I wanted to shove in Sterling/Salah/Martial in my midfield and had to punt in other places. Pukki bagged a goal against the best defense from 2018. What’s he going to do against the also-rans of the league?!
Alright team, I’ll say good luck because you’re going to need it, but at the same time, you’ve just received my playbook!