Welcome back to your weekly Fantasy Premier League Preview.
Let’s call a spade a spade here. I’m struggling. I don’t know how to beat you guys. You’re stealing all my moves! Where are you getting this information??
In truth, I love it! There is nothing better than seeing your loved ones succeed and if I had to lose to anyone, it’d be you. I’ve rocketed up the leaderboard from…..18th to 16th. My captain, Raheem Sterling, was inexplicably benched. I then somehow forgot to switch my vice captain from Rashford to De Bruyne, who happened to go off. The huge transfer of Otamendi into the starting 11 paid off in spades. Congrats to those of you that followed my advice on that one.
This week I have some decisions to make. Man United are the walking wounded and look likely to miss Rashford, Martial and Pogba. For me and all of my Rashford/Martial shares..that ain’t great. I’ll be making a transfer (or two) this week. I won’t be looking to that game for much love but let’s check out the list of games on tap this week.
It’s no secret who the top plays are going to be. Man City, Liverpool and Tottenham are the biggest favorites on the board. Currently the highest total is in the Man City v Everton game. That one in particular I’m excited to watch. This is a massive game for Everton who simply don’t have enough to match City. NOW, in saying that, I think everyone will flock to City after their 8-0 win and I’m not so sure that’s how I would play it.
Let’s look at the goal scoring odds for the week (from Bet365):
A couple of names stood out there. I do think Tammy Abraham will be a popular transfer IN. I’ve already made that move for this game week. I needed a F with my injury situation and he was in the best spot at a reasonable price. He has the 4th best goal scoring odds on the slate, Chelsea are at home and -230 favorites in a game with a three total. It makes sense.
Another name that caught my eye was Callum Wilson. Bournemouth are at home and have both scored and conceded in every game. West Ham have been good defensively but that isn’t a trait we usually associate with them.Have they turned over a new leaf?
Surely, if given the choice, you take Kane or Aguero or Salah, but in that group just over the even odds mark, Wilson catches my eye.
I hate to admit it but Aubameyang is hard to ignore this week as well. United have conceded in four of their last five, or five of their last six if you include the goal they conceded to a 16-year-old playing for Rochdale in the Carabao Cup. Yes, that’s a real tournament in England. I don’t hate putting some money down on Auba to score at +120.
Who else are the CHALK transfers?
No surprises there with injuries to Rashford and Mane that could keep them out of action. The Sterling transfer is one I will probably make as well and here is my thinking:
His xG (expected goal) rate is fine but the fact remains that City are supremely talented. Pep can only put so many players on the field at once. As with last year, they will be competing for four trophies this year. There is simply too much rotation with City for me to invest that heavily when I can go get a Mo Salah or even Kevin de Bruyne who faces less competition for his place.
SIX GAME PROJECTIONS
(Who I project to have the most points over the next six games)
- De Bruyne
- Van Dijk
- De Bruyne
- B Silva
- F Anderson
- C Wilson
It’s important to look forward when making your transfers, especially if you’re a bozo like me and already used your pre-Christmas Wildcard. You simply can’t afford to make multiple transfers week-to-week. The four pt cost is too high. That is the main reason why I look out into the future schedule and project six games in advance.
Does that mean that I think these 10 forwards, midfielders, defenders will score the most points THIS WEEK top to bottom? No. However, in general, good plays are good plays. Aubameyang being my #1 F over the next six weeks means he’s going to have success.
Aguero still makes me slightly nervous with a healthy Jesus right behind him but ride this pony till it dies.
Tottenham are in a whirlwind but tough to ignore Kane.
I don’t have any magical defender transfers I’m looking to bring in like I did last week with Otamendi. He’ll be in there for a while so the long term projection was worth the risk.
Injured players to hold onto – Martial, Mane. Perfectly fine cutting bait on Rashford. The boy looks exhausted and out of form.
Pepe taking the penalty last week I ‘think’ was an anomaly. We can’t bank on him being a consistent goalscorer until he’s done it. That’s a no for me, dog.