This is a 301 lap event…
Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 DFS Breakdown
- New Hampshire Motor Speedway
- Sunday 7/21/19 – 3:00 PM
- 1.058 mile
Last Race Notables: Kevin Harvick won.
- Laps Led – Kurt Busch: 94, Truex: 83, Almirola: 42, Kyle Busch: 36, Elliott: 23
- Start/Finish – Harvick 14/1, Almirola 13/3, Newman 18/6, Logano 19/9, Johnson 21/10, Larson 20/12, Kenseth 31/15
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led pts, and less fastest lap pts, making place finish and place differential pts a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but it is less likely to have two or three of them and really separate them from the pack.
Process: Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for NASCAR. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on, based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over. So then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab. Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way.
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 46 pts, 2nd 42 pts, 3rd 41, 4th 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
- .1 pts for each lap completed
- Place Differential = +/- .5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 5 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 43 pts, 2nd 40 pts, 3rd 38, 4th 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Let’s take a look at some of the track stats.
FOXWOODS RESORT CASINO 301 DFS PICKS
Kyle Busch ($11,900) – Stating 2nd. Starting with the big two here this weekend. Kyle has 15 top 10’s, 11 top 5’s and 3 wins here at NHMS.
Kevin Harvick ($11,100) – Starting 14th. I like Harvick quite a bit this weekend. I think he gets his first W this weekend. His last 4 here, 1st, 36th, 5th and 1st. 19 top 10’s, 11 top 5’s and 3 wins at NHMS.
Joey Logano ($10,300) – Starting 8th. Like the Penske team this weekend. All three are showing some nice speed and Logano here is a short track guy. Logano has 10 top 10’s, 6 top 5’s and 2 wins here at NHMS.
Brad Keselowski ($10,700) – Starting 1st. Kes has 11 top 10’s, 7 top 5’s and a win here. Starting on the pole, he should get out in front and lead some laps on Sunday.
Denny Hamlin ($9,700) – Starting 23nd. Short track guy. Has had an up and down year, but coming off a 5th place finish last week and has some success here at NHMS. 14 top 10’s, 9 top 5’s and 3 wins here.
Kyle Larson ($9,400) – Starting 15th.Starting to heat up. Finishing 4th and 2nd in his last two. His last three finishes here at NHMS are 12th, 2nd and 2nd. He has 5 top 10’s and 4 top 5’s here.
Ryan Blaney ($8,600) – Starting 5th. Finished 7th and 9th in his last two here. He may have figured out this flat mile track. He was fast in practice and could be a sleeper to win this weekend.
Alex Bowman ($8,800) – Starting 37th. Should be the chalk of the day and first driver you start with in your cash games. Backup car……..big deal. Top team starting in the back……….Lock him in. Finished 8th here last year.
Willam Byron ($7,500) – Starting 22th. A bit of a staple low-end guy. Lot’s of upside at this PP, but has some risk. Fortunately, he didn’t qualify upfront. I will have some shares. He finished 14th in his only race here last year.
Austin Dillon ($6,900) – Starting 21th. Similar to Byron, Austin has some upside here. Running for RCR. He has an ave finish of 15.1 here and a top 10. Another guy we didn’t want qualifying too well and has the potential for a top 10.
Ryan Newman ($7,600) – Starting 26th. Throwing Newman in here. Love that he is starting so far back and has a lot of experience here at NHMS. 19 top 10’s, 7 top 5’s and 3 wins here. Finished 6th here last year.
Daniel Hemric ($6,400) – Starting 19th. GPP special here with lots of risk. Having your typical inconsistent rookie season. Hemric showed a bit of speed in practice, and if he can keep it out of the wall, should have a car to get a nice finish.
FOXWOODS RESORT CASINO 301 PICKS TO WIN
- Kyle Busch
- Joey Logano
- Sleeper – Blaney
FOXWOODS RESORT CASINO 301 PROP BETS
- Kyle Busch over Harvick
- Kyle Busch over Truex
- Harvick over Truex
- Kes over Elliott
- Hamlin over Elliott
- Kurt Busch over Bowyer
- Blaney over Bowyer
- Blaney over Kurt Busch
- Blaney over Almirola
- Johnson over Bowman
- Kes over Truex
- A. Dillon over Stenhouse
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on twitter @trmp31.