UPDATED – Championship weekend, winner take all. Only four drivers are competing for the championship this weekend. This is a 267 lap event in Miami.
Ford EcoBoost 400 DFS Breakdown
- Homestead-Miami Speedway
- Sunday 11/17/19 – 3:00 PM
- 1.5 mile, Paved
Championship contenders and where they finished in Miami last year: Martin Truex, Jr. 2nd, Kevin Harvick 3rd, Kyle Busch 4th and Denny Hamlin 12th.
Last Race Notables: Joey Logano won.
- Laps Led – Logano: 80, Harvick: 58, Larson: 45, Hamlin: 41, Kyle Busch: 21, Truex Jr.: 20
- Start/Finish – Harvick 12/3, Elliott 14/7, Bowyer 26/8, Ty Dillon 31/22
A number of you wanted me to touch on FanDuel. Let’s take a look at some of the differences from FD vs. DK:
- 5 drivers vs. 6
- Laps led .1 fantasy point vs. .5
- Place differential +/- .5 vs. +/- 1
- Finishing position 43, 40, 38, 37, 36….etc vs. 46, 42, 41, 40…..etc
- No fastest lap points vs .5 points for fastest lap
- Laps completed = .1 point vs. None
Ok, so above are the differences. Full disclosure, I may throw a lineup or two into FD, but won’t be playing it heavy. So with that said, you will still be putting a big emphasis on place differential and finishing spot this weekend. I believe there will be some of the same issues as DK with duplicate lineups. We will see, but any questions you may have, hit me up on Twitter.
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led points and less fastest lap points, making place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but there is less likely of a chance to have two or three of them and really separate them from the pack.
OPTO: NASCAR Mafia, I have been getting some questions about the opto, so I wanted to address that here…..don’t just plug n’ play. If it was that easy, everybody would do it and win thousands or split thousands! Use the opto as a tool to assist in your build. See who it likes, plug some of your guys in, then run it. Run different scenarios and use it like a friend’s opinion. Yeah, I like that combo, or nah, I’m going a different way. Hope this helps. Ok, on to this weekend.
Process: Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for NASCAR. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on, based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over. So then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab and cheat sheet. Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way.
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 46 pts, 2nd 42 pts, 3rd 41, 4th 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
- .1 pts for each lap completed
- Place Differential = +/- .5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 5 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 43 pts, 2nd 40 pts, 3rd 38, 4th 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Let’s take a look at some of the track stats.
FORD ECOBOOST 400 DFS PICKS
Top Tier – Ha………perfect. The four guys in the championship start 1,2,3,4 and are all here in the top tier, as they all have a legit shot of winning.
Kevin Harvick ($10,800) – Starting 2nd. 16 top 10’s, 10 top 5’s and a win here at Homestead. It should be a great showdown between the four playoff guys. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a 1-4 finish with them. It is honestly anyone’s race with these four, but I will lean with the experience here.
Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,600) – Starting 3rd. Familiar with being a champion. Truex Jr. has nine top 10’s, five top 5’s and a win here at Homestead. He has as good of a shot as any of the four here.
Denny Hamlin ($11,100) – Starting 1st. Hamlin is hot, running really well, and it could be just at the right time as it’s winner take all here for the Championship in Homestead. Hamlin has won two of the last four, and five of his last six have been top 5’s. He has two wins here.
Kyle Busch ($11,400) – Starting 4th. He’s still a beast but hasn’t been dominating winning races with these new packages. For that reason, he is not my favorite here to win the Championship, but I do expect him to be popular and he could very well win.
Clint Bowyer ($8,800) – Starting 10th. Seven top 10’s, three top 5’s at Homestead. Finished 8th last year. Looking to finish on a high not for Stewart Haas Racing. Let’s see how much speed he has in practice.
Brad Keselowski ($9,200) – Starting 8th. Five top 10’s, three top 5’s at Homestead. Big name and team at a discount. I’m in. His last five here are 5th, 7th, 35th, 3rd and 3rd.
Ryan Newman ($8,000) – Starting 15th. Showing some real speed in practice. Newman has six top 10’s and two top 5’s here at Homestead. Finished 15th and 10th in his last two here.
Erik Jones ($8,600) – Starting 16th. Some risk here, as Jones hasn’t had any luck at Homestead. With that said, he is fast in practice and hopefully will be underowned. In three of his last four races, he has finished top 10.
Austin Dillon ($7,100) – Starting 22nd. Just a rough year for the former Daytona 500 winner. Looking to end on a high note. With an average finish of 14.6, Austin has a number of quality runs here finishing in the low teens. His last four at Homestead are 11th, 11th, 12th and 14th.
JH Nemechek ($5,800) – Starting 30th. Up and coming guy with a solid racing family. Held his own in his first two races. Last chance of 2019 to show what he can do. I like a solid run for him on Sunday at Homestead.
Bubba Wallace ($5,900) – Starting 27th. Finished 21st last time here. Don’t expect too much upside here, but a good run for Bubba would be 20th, which wouldn’t kill you.
David Regan ($5,700) – Starting 31st. Finished 20th and 17th in his last two at Homestead. Going to need a low-end guy or two to fit a few stars in, and Ragan fits the mold.
FORD ECOBOOST 400 PICKS TO WIN
- Denny Hamlin
- Martin Truex, Jr.
- Kevin Harvick
- Sleeper – Kyle Larson +800
Last race predictions: Bluegreen 500
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter @trmp31.