Short track playoff time. I expect some guys to get moved out of the way this weekend. First Data 500 is a 500 lap event.
First Data 500 DFS Breakdown
- Martinsville Speedway
- Sunday 10/27/19 – 3:00 PM
- 0.526 mile, Paved
Last Race Notables: Brad Keselowski won.
- Laps Led – Keselowski: 446, Elliott: 49, Logano: 5
- Start/Finish – Kyle Busch 13/3, Blaney 17/4, Austin Dillon 29/11, Kurt Busch 19/12, Ty Dillon 22/13, Bubba Wallace 26/17, Byron 34/22
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led points and less fastest lap points, making place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but there is less likely of a chance to have two or three of them and really separate them from the pack. I expect there to be two or three guys to get some significant laps led points this weekend.
Process: Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for NASCAR. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on, based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over. So then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab. Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way.
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 46 pts, 2nd 42 pts, 3rd 41, 4th 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
- .1 pts for each lap completed
- Place Differential = +/- .5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 5 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 43 pts, 2nd 40 pts, 3rd 38, 4th 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Let’s take a look at some of the track stats.
FIRST DATA 500 DFS PICKS
Denny Hamlin ($11,000) – Starting 1st. Short track guy. In the playoff hunt. Denny gonna win this weekend! 20 top 10’s, 14 top 5’s and five wins here at Martinsville.
Brad Keselwoski ($9,500) – Starting 15th. How can you not like Kes this weekend after his dominating performance earlier in the year here. He led 446 of the 500 laps on his way to a victory. He has won two of the last five here. He may be out of the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean he can’t win this weekend.
Joey Logano ($10,100) – Starting 10th. Fast, short track guy, in the playoffs. All a recipe for a nice race on Sunday. Nine top 10’s, six top 5’s and a win here.
Chase Elliott ($9,800) – Starting 2nd. Four top 10’s, two top 5’s. 2nd, 7th and 9th in his last three here. Contender in the playoffs.
Ryan Blaney ($9,300) – Starting 6th. Already one win in the last round of the playoffs, Blaney is right in the thick of things. Three top 10’s, two top 5’s here at Martinsville. His last four finishes here are 4th, 20th, 3rd and 8th.
Jimmie Johnson ($8,100) – Starting 24th. Obvious insane resume. Having a solid playoff even though he isn’t in them. Five of his last six races have been top 11 finishes. I think he betters that Sunday. 24 top 10’s, 19 top 5’s and nine wins here at Martinsville.
Clint Bowyer ($8,900) – Starting 7th. 16 top 10’s, six top 5’s and a win here. Out of the playoffs, but fast this weekend. In his last five at Martinsville, he has finished 7th, 21st, 1st, 3rdand 7th.
Kurt Busch ($8,500) – Starting 25th. GPP; six top 10’s, three top 5’s and two wins here. Finished 12th, 6th and 11th in his last three here.
Ryan Newman ($7,500) – Starting 27th. 16 top 10’s, eight top 5’s and one win here at Martinsville. Unlucky racing luck last week. Going right back to the well here.
Austin Dillon ($6,700) – Starting 23rd. Two top 10’s, two top 5’s here. Finished 11th earlier in the year at Martinsville. Don’t expect anything spectacular, but should run a decent race.
Ty Dillon ($6,200) – Starting 29th. Ave finish of 20.4 here at Martinsville. Finished 13th and 15th in his last two here.
Daniel Suárez ($7,300) – Starting 9th. Last two at Martinsville have been top 10’s. Good enough for me. Has some speed in practice also.
FIRST DATA 500 PICKS TO WIN
- Denny Hamlin
- Joey Logano
- Ryan Blaney
Last race predictions: Hollywood Casino 400
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on twitter @trmp31.