Off to Richmond VA for the 2nd round of the playoffs. This is a 400 lap event.
Federated Auto Parts 400 DFS Breakdown
- Richmond Raceway
- Saturday 9/21/19 – 7:30 PM
- .75 mile paved oval
Last Race Notables: Martin Truex, Jr. won.
- Laps Led – Truex: 186, Kyle Busch: 101, Logano: 52, Kes: 31
- Start/Finish – Bowyer 14/3, Hamlin 30/5, Newman 24/9, Johnson 34/12, Jones 35/14, Elliott 32/15, Suarez 33/18
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led points and less fastest lap points, making place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but it is less likely to have two or three of them and really separate them from the pack.
Process: Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for NASCAR. Only one article this week with race on Saturday, all-inclusive with qualifying and practices complete. Normally, we put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on, based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over. So then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab. Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way.
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 46 pts, 2nd 42 pts, 3rd 41, 4th 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
- .1 pts for each lap completed
- Place Differential = +/- .5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 5 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 43 pts, 2nd 40 pts, 3rd 38, 4th 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Let’s take a look at some of the track stats.
FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400 DFS PICKS
Kyle Busch ($10,300) – Starting 4th. Beast. Angry Kyle this weekend.
Brad Keselowski ($9,500) – Starting 1st. Fast in practice. Starting on the pole. Possible dominator today. 10 top 10’s, four top 5’s and a win here. His win here came when he started on the pole. Repeat???
Kevin Harvick ($11,500) – Starting 2nd. Harvick has 24 top 10’s, 15 top 5’s and three wins here at Richmond. I will have my eye on Harvick today. 4th, 2nd and 5th in his last three here.
Joey Logano ($10,700) – Starting 28th. Short track guy. 12 top 10’s, nine top 5’s and two wins here. The top tier has a bunch of guys who could win today.
Guys I like that are not in here: Hamlin, Truex Jr. and Larson. All of which have a win here.
Kurt Busch ($9,000) – Starting 9th. Kurt has 15 top 10’s, seven top 5’s and two wins here. Some tough luck last week; looking to rebound and keep his playoffs alive. I see a solid run for Kurt today.
Erik Jones ($9,200) – Starting 15th. Has run really consistent here: 14th, 11th, 13th and 6th in his last four. Almost needing a W to get to next round. I see Jones either killing it today or crashing trying to do too much. GPP and TBD.
Ryan Newman ($8,000) – Starting 19th. Mr. Consistent turning in a solid year, and this weekend should not be any different. Really pushing Team Roush in the right direction. 19 top 10’s, seven top 5’s and a win here at Richmond.
Chase Elliott ($9,400) – Starting 3rd. Three top 10’s, two top 5’s. Chase has really come on strong at the end of the year. Getting hot at the right time could payoff with a deep run into the playoffs.
Daniel Suárez ($7,200) – Starting 14th. Two top 10’s in five races and hasn’t finished worse than 18th, which was earlier in the year. Cash game ready.
Austin Dillon ($6,800) – Starting 17th. Two top 10’s here and they just so happen to be the last two times out at Richmond: 6th and 6th. Looking to finish the year on a high note, as it has been a bit of a tough one.
Matt DiBenedetto ($7,400) – Starting 12th. Running some good equipment at a nice price point. Ran really well and finished 2nd on his previous short track race. I look for Matt to be strong tonight.
Chris Buescher ($7,000) – Starting 23rd. Quietly doing what Buescher does. Solid runs week in and week out. Finished 10th – 18th in his last 10 races. I would expect the same tonight.
FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400 PICKS TO WIN
- Joey Logano
- Kyle Busch
- Kevin Harvick
- Sleeper – Kurt Busch +2200
Last race predictions: South Point 400
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on twitter @trmp31.