Here’s the thing. Yes, hello. How are you?
In this game – and it is a game – we have to solve puzzles. By definition, puzzles are usually hard. We NAILED the Friday slate except for one or two key pieces. You know what a rubiks cube looks like with two or three pieces out of place? A shit show.
So, yes, Perisic and Dzyuba scored goals and Golovin got an assist and etc etc etc but Rues and Werner were taken off before they could really impact the game. I sent out a tweet denouncing xG. It’s an imperfect stat. It doesn’t take into account everything on the field. So when you see spreadsheet nerds touting this as the be all end all, just remember: it’s not a true replacement for someone who watches and knows the game.
Take for example the two players listed above. Granted, I said in my breakdown that Werner was all or nothing and, by all accounts, he was nothing. However, Gnabry had the ball 40 yards from goal 2 v 1 against VVD with Werner streaking in on goal and decided to chip the goalie with his weak foot as opposed to play a pass for what would likely be a goal MORE OFTEN THAN NOT. xG douche.
How about before that? Klostermann breaks in behind Daley Blind and is 1v1 with the GK but he’s a fucking RWB. He doesn’t score goals. And look! Who’s in the middle ready for a tap in? Marco Rues. What does the dingleberry do? Shanks a shot right at the Dutch GK.
So anyways…yeah, I’m pissed. But let’s crush this slate because we got so much right and still didn’t win it all.
To the desert…
-Serbia +230 2.5 (+115o/-160u)
-France -1600 3.5 (+125o/-175u)
First things first, they’ve decided to trot out the two game slate for Saturday which is perfectly fine by me. The rest of the slate is trash and uneventful. England do play Bulgaria, but, like…yippie!
So let’s focus on these two games and knock it out of the park.
As you know by now, this whole tournament is jacked up. You have teams playing different amounts of games. There doesn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason to the scheduling. So don’t take much from seeing Serbia ahead of Portugal in the standings. Portugal is LOADED with talent. Serbia has some but can’t match the individual brilliance of the Portugal players.
Serbia blew out Lithuania. Who hasn’t? Then they got BLOWN out 5-0 by Ukraine. But, oh yeah, Serbia and Portugal tied 1-1 the first time around. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills with this team. OUR PETS HEADS ARE FALLING OFF.
Portugal has tied both Ukraine and Serbia in their two games. They’ll beat Lithuania twice and will take down Luxembourg twice as well. The result in this game will determine whether they are guaranteed a top two finish or if they’ll need a result against Ukraine down the road. For that reason, I expect an A+ squad and an A+ effort.
How about frickin Albania having two wins, eh?!!! Let’s put it in perspective…as bad as Albania may or may not be, Moldova and Andorra are worse. BUT, the result I really like to see is a narrow 1-0 loss to Iceland by Albania. Iceland is a decent squad and, no, they aren’t going to ever blow many teams out, but, regardless, Albania was in the game until the final whistle.
France isn’t Albania. They aren’t Moldova or Andorra. They are the WORLD CHAMPS. They are -1600 favorites for good reason. This is a blow out scenario. France suffered a curious 2-0 loss to Turkey but, besides that, they’ve been flawless throughout qualification and sit in first.
- Griezmann – FRA – $10.8k
Stud. Just does everything for France including take PKs. Fine value at this price.
- Ronaldo – POR – $10k
Do you really need the big speech? France is the monster favorites but how do you fade this?
- Tadic – SRB – $7.9k
I don’t love Tadic, but I love him in this role for Serbia. Takes everything in sight. Shots. Corners. Set pieces.
- Fekir – FRA – $8.7k
$1k too cheap. Hammer it if he starts.
- B Silva – POR – $6.9k
This falls into the too cheap for his ability category.
- Lemar – FRA – $7k
I honestly don’t know if I like Lemark or Coman better but, it seems Deschaumps likes Lemar more, so let’s roll with him. A bit of set piece equity but my worry is that he is more the set up man than the finisher. We need goals. The price is very reasonable.
- Pizzi – POR – $8.6k
Frankly, I don’t love the spot, but it’s hard to deny the production in the reverse fixture. Eight crosses and two shots are good by me. He doesn’t often bag goals so this would be more of a cash than a GPP play.
- Moutinho – POR – $5.9k
For the same reasons we play him for Wolves. Floor baby. Crosses.
- Coman – FRA – $7.3k
Regardless of his stat sheet, this guy’s floor is high. GPP option.
- Guerreiro – POR – $6.4k
A plug and play should he start. Don’t get cute.
- Pavard – FRA – $5.2k
Decent option up the right side. Make sure he is playing RB and not CB.
- Hysaj – ALB – $3.7k
Here is your third team player. Quality fullback who is super cheap.
- Kolarov – SRB – $5.4k
Five years ago this would have been all in.Tough matchup and getting up there in age.
- Patricio – POR
- Dmitrovic – SRB
- Lloris – FRA
- Berisha – ALB