Winning with an Edge

EPL Preview – Part 3 of 3 | Title Contenders

July 25, 2019 by Duke

Salah Celebration | DFS EPL

This article is a beast… Enjoy!

EPL Preview – Part 3 of 3

I’m back!

EPL Preview - Part 2 of 3

Sit down with your afternoon tea and enjoy this Title Contenders preview. If you missed part 1 or part 2 of my 3 part EPL preview, click the links!

Let’s goooooooo

TEAM NAME – WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS

STADIUM: Molineux Stadium

EPL Preview - Part 3 of 3

EPL Preview - Part 3 of 3

Broke ground back in 1889 and has been renovated three times. It holds 32,050 fans. Interestingly enough, there were plans to expand the capacity, which were ultimately shelved in favor of developing their youth academy. As it stands, there is discussion to eventually expand the capacity to a total of 50,000 seats.

2018 RESULTS: 7^th in the EPL

16 W – 9 D – 13 L
47 Goals For
46 Goals Against
57 Points

PREF FORMATION: 3-5-2

Nuno Espirito Santo is now famous for his tactical discipline instilled in his players. Not only does he rarely change the formation, he rarely rotates his side. A defensive set up by nature, the wing-backs in Jonny and Doherty are particularly important to providing width when they do go forward. The front 2 work off of each other to hold the ball to wait for support or get in behind a defense caught too high up the pitch.

PROJ SET PIECE TAKER: Neves, Moutinho

PROJ PENALTY TAKER: Neves, Jimenez

TOP GOALSCORER

Raul Jimenez	WLV	38	13
Diogo Jota	WLV	33	9
Willy Boly	WLV	36	4
Matt Doherty	WLV	38	4
Ruben Neves	WLV	35	4
Ivan Cavaleiro	WLV	23	3

TRANSFERS

IN

Raul Jimenez (Benfica) Undisclosed Details

Hong (Yeovil Town) Undisclosed Details

Raphael Nya (PSG) Undisclosed Details

Leander Dendoncker (Anderlecht) Undisclosed Details

Tsun Dai (Oxford United) Undisclosed Details

OUT

Ethan Ebanks-Landell (Shrewsbury Town) Undisclosed Details

Michal Zyro (Released) Details

Carlos Heredia (Released) Details

Ben Goodliffe (Released) Details

Aaron Hayden (Released) Details

Diego Lattie (Released) Details

Enzo Sauvage (Released) Details

Christian Herc (Viktoria Plzen) Loan Details

Kortney Hause (Aston Villa) Undisclosed Details

Ryan Giles (Shrewsbury Town) Loan Details

Pedro Goncalves (FC Famalicao) Undisclosed Details

Joao Dias (FC Famalicao) Undisclosed Details

Helder Costa (Leeds) Loan Details

Ryan Leak (Burgos) Undisclosed

Ivan Cavaleiro (Fulham) Loan Details

SUMMARY

Wolves put together the blueprint for moving through the lower leagues and achieving sustained success at the top level. Eyes were opened as they splashed the cash for Ruben Neves and Jota in the Championship. The plan was also to hang around the Prem for the long run. Smart loan deals for Jimenez and Dendonker have now been made permanent transfers. The goal this offseason was to not screw it up, and they certainly haven’t. I’m still waiting for one last piece to make a push for top 6, but until then, they’ll be just outside.

VERDICT: 7^th or 8^thin the Prem

TEAM NAME – ARSENAL

STADIUM: Emirates Stadium

EPL Preview - Part 3 of 3

EPL Preview - Part 3 of 3

This is likely more of what you were expecting from these fancy English teams, right? Gigantic and gorgeous stadiums that look similar to what we take for granted in the states. What it lacks in history, it makes up for with aesthetics.

This stadium was opened back in 2006 with a capacity of 60,260. It’s the fourth largest football stadium in England.

2018 RESULTS: 5^th in the EPL

21 W – 7 D – 10 L
73 Goals For
51 Goals Against
70 Points

PREF FORMATION: Hybrid**

Emery used a 4-3-1-2 against Brighton to both sure up the defensive side that was conceding at an alarming rate as well as get Mesut Ozil in position to support his two superstars up front.

Against Burnley, Emery reverted to a 4-2-3-1. This was mostly to offset Burnley’s direct approach to the game, but as you can see from the team, was also designed to get players who wouldn’t play in the Europa League final some minutes.

The 3-4-1-2 seemed to be Emery’s preferred formation towards the end of the season. This formation/team was used against Chelsea in the Europa League final. They conceded four goals and lost handily. I don’t know Emery will go back to this formation or shift to a more traditional back 4 once the EPL kicks off. That would be my recommendation to him, along with changing out his entire backline….

PROJ SET PIECE TAKER: Xhaka, Ozil, Terrera, Mkhitaryan

PROJ PENALTY TAKER: Aubameyang, Lacazette

TOP GOALSCORER

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	ARS	36	22
Alexandre Lacazette	ARS	35	13
Henrikh Mkhitaryan	ARS	25	6
Mesut Ozil	ARS	24	5
Granit Xhaka	ARS	29	4
Aaron Ramsey	ARS	28	4
Alex Iwobi	ARS	35	3
Laurent Koscielny	ARS	17	3

TRANSFERS

IN

Gabriel Martinelli (Ituano) Undisclosed Details

OUT

Aaron Ramsey (Juventus) Free Details

Petr Cech (Retired) Details

Danny Welbeck (Released) Details

Cohen Bramall (Released) Details

Charlie Gilmour (Norwich) Free Details

Stephan Lichtsteiner (Released) Details

Julio Pleguezuelo (Released) Details

Jordi Osei-Tutu (Bochum) Loan Details

Daniel Ballard (Swindon Town) Loan Details

David Ospina (Napoli) Undisclosed Details

Vontae Daley-Campbell (Leicester) Undisclosed Details

Ben Sheaf (Doncaster Rovers) Loan Details

SUMMARY

As you can tell from the formation piece of this breakdown, part of Arsenal’s problem is they are so tactically malleable. You take a team like City or Liverpool, and they are set up to dictate the play and make their opponent adjust. Even a team like Burnley or Wolves know what they are going to do every time they go out.

For me, there is too much tactical fluidity and it leads to confusion and poor results. I’ll leave that down to a first-year feeling out process for Emery, but to date, they have not made the necessary moves to show me they are capable of jumping into the top 4.

On top of all of this, Koscielny is holding out from camp. They need all the help in the world along the backline, and who are they linked with? Ceballos (midfield)? He’s a great piece to add but doesn’t address their direct problem. If they can get Saliba over the line, that will help. However, it sounds like they are a few million pounds off the valuation for Celtic left back Kieren Tierney. He’s a player and exactly what Arsenal need. Yikes, man.

VERDICT: 6^th or worse. Top half for sure.

TEAM NAME – MANCHESTER UNITED

STADIUM: Old Trafford

EPL Preview - Part 3 of 3

EPL Preview - Part 3 of 3

EPL Preview - Part 3 of 3

Two things right off the top:

I had to include the trophy flex.
I’ve actually walked down this tunnel and got chills typing this out, thinking about how special this stadium really is.

Ground was broken on Old Trafford in 1909 and has been the home for Manchester United ever since. It’s the largest club football stadium in England with a capacity of 74,994. The construction cost? 90,000 pounds! … in 1909.

2018 RESULTS: 6^th in the EPL

19 W – 9 D – 10 L
65 Goals For
54 Goals Against
66 Points

PREF FORMATION: 4-3-1-2

This was the preferred formation last year as Ole tried to navigate the final stages of the Prem. This allowed him to get the most “talent” on the field while not conceding a billion goals. This is very much a sit and counter attack type of set up. Throughout preseason, he’s opted for a much different tactical approach.

This 4-2-3-1 is really more of a 4-3-3 when United have the ball. This formation is built around high energy pressing further up the field to win the ball deeper in the opposition’s half to produce more chances. This requires both tactical cohesiveness as well as squad depth. I’m not sure United have either at the moment.

PROJ SET PIECE TAKER: Rashford, Pogba, Mata

PROJ PENALTY TAKER: Pogba, Rashford

TOP GOALSCORER

Paul Pogba	MUN	35	13
Romelu Lukaku	MUN	32	12
Marcus Rashford	MUN	33	10
Anthony Martial	MUN	27	10
Jesse Lingard	MUN	27	4
Juan Mata	MUN	22	3

TRANSFERS

IN

Daniel James (Swansea City) Undisclosed Details

Aaron Wan-Bissaka (Crystal Palace) Undisclosed Details

OUT

Ander Herrera (PSG) Free Details

Antonio Valencia (Released) Details

Matthew Olosunde (Released) Details

James Wilson (Released) Details

Regan Poole (Released) Details

Kieran O’Hara (Burton Albion) Loan Details

SUMMARY

Changes are afoot in Manchester. The tactical switch is one fans have been requesting for years. Let’s let the young boys run!

With their transfer business to date, they’ve sure up a giant hole at RB and added extreme pace and energy to the attacking third. They are rumored with approximately 500 other players throughout the world so we’ll see how the transfer window closes.

They certainly haven’t closed the gap with the top 2, but a top 4 finish is not out of the question. For me, Pogba is key to them finishing 4^th. Even him leaving and bringing in Bruno Fernandes AND Milinkovic-Savic doesn’t fill the need enough. Pogba must stay.

Getting the Maguire deal over the line along with the addition of Wan-Bissaka should sure up the backline. De Gea signing a new six-year deal calms another touching point.

VERDICT: 4^th or 5^thdepending on signings the rest of the way.

TEAM NAME – CHELSEA

STADIUM: Stamford Bridge

EPL Preview - Part 3 of 3

The stadium was built in 1876 and has a current capacity of 40,853…insanely small for how well the club has done since current owner Roman Abramovich took over. I can distinctly remember watching games in this stadium on tv and just laughing at how bad the pitch was at the time. He’s improved a lot about Chelsea, but improving Stamford Bridge should be next on the list.

It’s one of the smaller pitches in the Prem at only 112.6 x 73.2 yards.

2018 RESULTS: 3^rd in the EPL

21 W – 9 D – 8 L
63 Goals For
39 Goals Against
72 Points

PREF FORMATION: Manager Change — 4-3-3

New manager Frank Lampard is not just a club legend; he’s a hell of a manager based on his limited experience at Derby County. He was the manager of the team that knocked out Manchester United from the FA Cup with far less talent. Chelsea will have some continuity in formation, as both Sarri and Lampard deploy the 4-3-3. What he does with Kante is the key…

PROJ SET PIECE TAKER: Willian, Luiz, Alonso

PROJ PENALTY TAKER: Jorginho, Willian

TOP GOALSCORER

Eden Hazard	CHE	37	16
Pedro	CHE	31	8
Ruben Loftus-Cheek	CHE	24	6
Gonzalo Higuain	CHE	14	5
Alvaro Morata	CHE	16	5
N’Golo Kante	CHE	36	4
David Luiz	CHE	36	3
Willian	CHE	32	3
Ross Barkley	CHE	27	3

TRANSFERS

IN

Mateo Kovacic (Real Madrid) Undisclosed Details

OUT

Gary Cahill (Released) Details

Fankaty Dabo (Coventry City) Free Details

Rob Green (Retired) Details

Eden Hazard (Real Madrid) Undisclosed Details

Todd Kane (Released)

Ola Aina (Torino) Undisclosed Details

Nathan Baxter (Ross County) Loan Details

Richard Nartey (Burton Albion) Loan Details

Jay Dasilva (Bristol City) Undisclosed Details

Eduardo (Released) Details

Kyle Scott (Released) Details

Tomas Kalas (Bristol City) Undisclosed Details

Mario Pasalic (Atalanta) Loan Details

Charly Musonda (Vitesse Arnhem) Loan Details

Alvaro Morata (Atletico Madrid) Undisclosed Details

Nathan (Atletico Mineiro) Loan Details

Daishawn Redan (Hertha Berlin) Loan Details

Ethan Ampadu (RB Leipzig) Loan Detai l s

SUMMARY

Frankly, (no pun intended) this is the team I’m the LEAST confident about at the moment. Chelsea has decent pieces but seems to lack attacking firepower at the moment. They’ve lost Hazard but signed Hudson-Odoi to a new long term contract. Here’s the problem: Hudson-Odoi may not play THIS YEAR, let alone any time soon.

In their absence are William/Pedro/Tammy Abraham/Kennedy/Olivier Giroud. None of these names are striking fear into the hearts of opponents. I like Frank as a manager, but short of some late transfer business, I’m afraid they may struggle to create goals. In saying that, they just created 14 shots and beat Barcelona in a friendly 2-1.

VERDICT: 4^th or 5^th with United.

TEAM NAME – TOTTENHAM

STADIUM: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

EPL Preview - Part 3 of 3

This baby is brand spanking new, having just opened last year. The entire project cost right around 1 billion pounds. It’s occasionally called the “New White Hart Lane,” which is a tribute to the stadium they called home forever before the move.

The stadium is gorgeous, but the cost has certainly been felt by the front office, who failed to sign a player for two straight transfer windows.

The stadium was built to be able to host NFL games as well. The grass surface splits in two, and when retracted, reveals a synthetic turf field underneath.

2018 RESULTS: 4^th in the EPL

23 W – 2 D – 13 L
67 Goals For
39 Goals Against
71 Points

PREF FORMATION: 4-2-3-1

They typically lineup in this 4-2-3-1 formation with the two defensive midfielders protecting the back 4, allowing the front 4 to attack once they win back possession. The addition of Ndombele unlocks quite a bit of formational flexibility that wasn’t previously available to Pochettino.

PROJ SET PIECE TAKER: Eriksen, Kane, Lamela

PROJ PENALTY TAKER: Kane, Alli

TOP GOALSCORER

Harry Kane	TOT	28	17
Son Heung-Min	TOT	31	12
Lucas Moura	TOT	32	10
Christian Eriksen	TOT	35	8
Dele Alli	TOT	25	5
Erik Lamela	TOT	19	4
Eric Dier	TOT	20	3

TRANSFERS

IN

Kion Etete (Notts County) Undisclosed Details

Jack Clarke (Leeds) Undisclosed Details

Tanguy Ndombele (Lyon) Undisclosed Details

OUT

Michel Vorm (Released) Details

Dylan Duncan (Released) Details

Charlie Freeman (Released) Details

Tom Glover (Released) Details

Connor Ogilvie (Released) Details

Jamie Reynolds (Released) Details

Luke Amos (QPR) Loan Details

Jack Clarke (Leeds) Loan Details

Kieran Trippier (Atletico Madrid) Details

Vincent Janssen (Monterrey) Undisclosed Details

SUMMARY

Why fix what’s not broken? Really, there was fine-tuning needed to make a push into the top 2. People forget that Tottenham was firmly in the Championship race until Christmas. As the top 2 pulled away and Tottenham progressed further in the Champions League, the focus shifted towards that competition. The shift caused Tottenham to slip to 4^th in the Prem but allowed them to progress to the UCL finals where they ultimately downed by Liverpool.

Hanging on to Eriksen and Kane while adding Ndombele should be considered a win by Spurs fans. Son is a beast. Alli is still developing. They have some questions to answer after Trippier left for Atletico Madrid, and Rose is being rumored to be off as well. Will they invest in fullback depth? Aurier and Davies should fit right into the first 11.

VERDICT: 3^rd – I don’t know that enough was added or changed to really challenge first or second.

TEAM NAME – LIVERPOOL

STADIUM: Anfield

EPL Preview - Part 3 of 3

EPL Preview - Part 3 of 3

Anfield was originally built in 1884 and has been home to Liverpool Football Club since it’s formation in 1892. The capacity of 54,074 makes it the seventh-largest football stadium in England.

There are future plans to expand the ground to 61,000 seats.

2018 RESULTS: 2^nd in the EPL

30 W – 7 D – 1 L
89 Goals For
22 Goals Against
97 Points

PREF FORMATION: 4-3-3

Liverpool knows exactly who they are and exactly how they want to play. The 4-3-3 is here to stay. High pressing, high energy, dynamic attacking movements. That is the Klopp way.

PROJ SET PIECE TAKER: Alexander-Arnold, Milner, Shaqiri, Salah

PROJ PENALTY TAKER: Milner, Salah

TOP GOALSCORER

Mohamed Salah	LIV	38	22
Sadio Mane	LIV	36	22
Roberto Firmino	LIV	34	12
Xherdan Shaqiri	LIV	24	6
James Milner	LIV	31	5
Virgil van Dijk	LIV	38	4
Georginio Wijnaldum	LIV	35	3
Divock Origi	LIV	12	3

TRANSFERS

IN

Sepp van den Berg (PEC Zwolle) Undisclosed Details

OUT

Alberto Moreno (Villarreal) Free Details

Daniel Sturridge (Released) Details

Connor Randall (Released) Details

Adam Bogdan (Released) Details

Sheyi Ojo (Rangers) Loan Details

Rafael Camacho (Sporting) Details

Marko Grujic (Hertha BSC) Loan Details

Danny Ings (Southampton) Undisclosed Details

Allan Rodrigues de Souza (Fluminense) Loan Details

Kamil Grabara (Huddersfield Town) Loan Details

SUMMARY

The only move made was to bring in a CB for the future. You’d be fair to ask, do the European Champions need major changes? Of course not. However, they aren’t without their flaws. An upgrade over Matip would certainly help. Attacking depth would be nice. (cough* Pepe *cough)

Continuity is the name of the game.

VERDICT: 1^st

Yep! We have a new champ. City has been amazing champions, and this will not be a run-away, but quite honestly, I can see big changes coming for City this year. Should FIFA do their job and punish City for their transgressions, there could be a major upheaval at City, up to and including Pep moving on.

Klopp isn’t going anywhere and neither are Mane/Firmino/Salah. As Origi continues to add firepower off the bench and van Dijk continues to dominate the back, Liverpool will be a tough out next year.

Here’s the issue…they only lost one freaking game in the 2018 season. How do you improve on that?? Well, they win more. City had 32 wins while Liverpool had 30. Flip that and get the desired result.

TEAM NAME – MANCHESTER CITY

STADIUM: Plastic Stadium —- ONLY JOKING. Etihad Stadium

EPL Preview - Part 3 of 3

EPL Preview - Part 3 of 3

Originally called the City of Manchester Stadium, the name was changed when the Qatari owners took over the club and began creating a shell system of bloated sponsorships to fund their billion-dollar squad overhaul.

It has a capacity of 55,097 with the latest renovation finishing up in time for the start of the 15/16 season.

2018 RESULTS: EPL CHAMPIONS

32 W – 2 D – 4 L
95 Goals For
23 Goals Against
98 Points

PREF FORMATION: 4-3-3

The patented 4-3-3 Pep prefers will back to (probably) dominate the Prem again. This formation is fluid. The fullbacks join the attack. Fernandinho/Gundogan/Rodri sit in front of the back 4 and dictate the attack from deep. The wingers have the freedom to stay high and wide or pinch in and support the forward. They create a ton of chances and can be ruthless on their day.

PROJ SET PIECE TAKER: De Bruyne, D Silva, Sane, Gundogan

PROJ PENALTY TAKER: Aguero, Jesus, Mahrez

TOP GOALSCORER

Sergio Aguero	MCI	33	21
Raheem Sterling	MCI	34	17
Leroy Sane	MCI	31	10
Bernardo Silva	MCI	36	7
Riyad Mahrez	MCI	27	7
Gabriel Jesus	MCI	29	7
David Silva	MCI	33	6
Ilkay Gundogan	MCI	31	6
Aymeric Laporte	MCI	35	3

TRANSFERS

IN

Angelino (PSV Eindhoven) Undisclosed Details

Rodri (Atletico Madrid) Undisclosed Details

OUT

Vincent Kompany (Anderlecht) Free Details

Patrick Roberts (Norwich City) Loan Details

Tom Dele-Bashiru (Released)

Aaron Nemane (Released)

Jack Harrison (Leeds United) Loan Details

Aro Muric (Nottingham Forest) Loan Details

Zack Steffen (Fortuna Dusseldorf) Loan Details

Fabian Delph (Everton) Undisclosed Details

Philippe Sandler (Anderlecht) Loan Details

Taylor Richards (Brighton) Undisclosed

SUMMARY

They are so good. I’m extremely jealous of how they play. Pep brought his style of football to the physical Premier League and made 19 other teams bend the knee. Liverpool is nipping at their heels, but frankly, City left a few points on the table last year. This is going to be a fascinating race that will likely head to the final day, as it did last year.

VERDICT: 2^nd

City fans (are there any?) won’t like this, but Liverpool is going to take it down this year. The goal has always been the Champions League. The focus will be there this year, especially with the threat of future European football suspensions looming.

OTHER INTERESTING STATS

Best Goals/Game Rate (Must play 10+ games) — Top 40

Player Name	Team	GP	G	Goals/Game
Sergio Aguero	MCI	33	21	0.636
Sadio Mane	LIV	36	22	0.611
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	ARS	36	22	0.611
Harry Kane	TOT	28	17	0.607
Mohamed Salah	LIV	38	22	0.579
Jamie Vardy	LEI	34	18	0.529
Raheem Sterling	MCI	34	17	0.500
Callum Wilson	BOU	30	14	0.467
Michy Batshuayi	CRY	11	5	0.455
Eden Hazard	CHE	37	16	0.432
Son Heung-Min	TOT	31	12	0.387
Romelu Lukaku	MUN	32	12	0.375
Paul Pogba	MUN	35	13	0.371
Richarlison	EVE	35	13	0.371
Alexandre Lacazette	ARS	35	13	0.371
Anthony Martial	MUN	27	10	0.370
Marko Arnautovic	WHU	28	10	0.357
Gonzalo Higuain	CHE	14	5	0.357
Roberto Firmino	LIV	34	12	0.353
Salomon Rondon	NEW	32	11	0.344
Joshua King	BOU	35	12	0.343
Raul Jimenez	WLV	38	13	0.342
Gylfi Sigurdsson	EVE	38	13	0.342
Glenn Murray	BHA	38	13	0.342
Gerard Deulofeu	WAT	30	10	0.333
Ayoze Perez	NEW	37	12	0.324
Ashley Barnes	BUR	37	12	0.324
Leroy Sane	MCI	31	10	0.323
Luka Milivojevic	CRY	38	12	0.316
Alvaro Morata	CHE	16	5	0.313
Lucas Moura	TOT	32	10	0.313
Marcus Rashford	MUN	33	10	0.303
Wilfried Zaha	CRY	34	10	0.294
Danny Ings	SOU	24	7	0.292
Troy Deeney	WAT	32	9	0.281
Chicharito	WHU	25	7	0.280
Diogo Jota	WLV	33	9	0.273

COLOR CODE:

_{NO LONGER IN EPL}
_{CHANGED TEAMS WITHIN EPL}

BETS

Outright Winner

LIVERPOOL (+250) – 1x

Bottom on Christmas Day

SHEFFIELD UNITED (+300) – 1x
ASTON VILLA (+900) – 1x

Top 6 Finish

LEICESTER CITY (+475) – .21x

Top 10 Finish

WEST HAM (+125) – 1x

Top Club in London

Tottenham (+125) – 1x

Tournament Winner and Top Goalscorer

Liverpool & Mo Salah (+1200) – .2

GOOD LUCK!!

About the Analyst

Duke

Former D1 Collegiate Soccer player who trained with Manchester United, was scouted by Newcastle and West Ham and coached in the USA Development Academy. No one in the industry provides the tactical and technical analysis he brings to the table for the subscribers.

He finished second in the ...

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