Duke’s EPL DFS Preview for Sunday’s MASSIVE 10-match slate…
LET’S BET THE BOARD!
Brighton/Draw Double Chance 1 to win 1.2
CHE/AVL both teams to score 1.3 to win 1
FUL/NEW Both teams to score and O2.5 1 to win 1
Leeds United -1 — 2 to win 2
LEI/TOT O3 — 1.1 to win 1
LIV/CP U3.5 — 1 to win 1
Everton +1.5 — 1..05 to win 1
Burnley +130 — 1 to win 1.3
WH/SOU O3 — 1 to win 1.05
WOL/MU O2.5 — 1 to win 1.05
WHEW!! It’s been an unbelievable season. I’m so happy and appreciative that you guys and girls have been with me since day 1. Per usual, we’ll look to finish the season strong. We have our one slate a year where every single team in the division kicks off at the same time. It’s a day built for GOALAZO or something similar. I might even fire up the old twitch stream and hang out watching the games if you guys want. YOU LET ME KNOW.
One thing to keep in mind, not everyone is playing for something here. We always see some wild scores. The scoring is also typically UP on the final day of the year. Last season there were 33 goals scored across the 10 games. You can do that math in your head. A typical EPL slate has about 2.57 goals per game for reference. 18/19? 36 goals. 17/18? 31. Crucially, each of these years had several games go nuts.
In 17/18 we had a 5-4 Spurs v Leicester game and 4-0 Liverpool game. 18/19 it was the 5-3 Palace v Bournemouth game. Newcastle, Man City and West Ham also scored 4. 19/20 it was the 5-0 hammering of Norwich by Man City. The point is, there are fantasy points to be had on Sunday. Finding them is the key!
To the desert….
I’ve been harping on it for weeks but it all comes down to this. Who has what to play for? Let’s go team-by-team.
- Man City – NOTHING. A Champions League final coming up and will likely see massive rotation. The only reason to play regulars is match sharpness but they are a week out from the final so to risk an injury would be borderline a fireable offense by Pep.
- Man United – NOTHING. They have a Europa League final on Wendesday. Ole played the first team guys last weekend FOR match fitness and sharpness. I expect to see the likes of Amad Diallo and Shola Shoretire leading the line. Full rotation with 2nd place wrapped up.
- Chelsea – Away to Aston Villa and guaranteeing 3rd place with a win. Should Chelsea lose and Liverpool draw they’d be pushed to 4th. Should they lose, Liverpool and Leicester both win they would finish 5th and miss out on Champions League football. The one caveat here is that they do have the Champions League Final to play against Man City that would grant them UCL football with a win, regardless of Sunday’s result. We saw how good this Chelsea team looked again Leicester after blowing the FA Cup final. This is a motivated team and Tuchel will want to ride this renewed confidence into the final with a win. He can’t play games here.
- Liverpool – They need to match or better Leicester’s result to stay in the top 4 and get UCL football next year. They are -600 at home to a Crystal Palace team that doesn’t have anything to play for. I would expect an offensive barrage here.
- Leicester City – They need a bit of help or this could be back-to-back years of spending months in the top 4 only to miss out late. They have the FA Cup trophy as a consolation prize but all they can do is go out and handle their own business. At some point goal differential could come into play so should they get a lead on Spurs I doubt they’ll sit back and absorb pressure.
- West Ham United – They need a draw or better to stay in the top 6 and guarantee Europa League footy. Should they lose and Spurs and Everton both win they are at risk of falling down to 8th and completely losing out on Europa League.
- Tottenham – Win and you’re in. Not top 4 but at worst, the Europa Conference League qualifying. The best they can do is 6th and at worst could finish as low as 9th. They have the toughest game of the day with most on the line.
- Everton – Outside shot of getting into the Europa Leauge. They need a win to do so as they have the worst goal differential of the top half of the table. They also play Man City and are +600 soooooooo…
- Arsenal – WHAT IF? They are on 58 points and could get to 61 with a win. IF Spurs and Eveton lose they could finish above both and finish 7th, jumping into that Europa Conference League qualifying position.
- Leeds Utd – Top half is a great accomplishment. In a sense they have nothing to play for as Villa can’t catch them but it’s a Bielsa coached team and they could jump to 9th if they win and Arsenal lose. We’ll get a good effort out of them.
- Aston Villa – They will finish 11th regardless of the result. Make of that what you will.
- Wolverhampton Wanderers – It was announced today that the manager will be stepping down after the game. Nuno Espirito Santo has guided Wolves through the ranks and to this point. He’s loved by his players. I’m guessing they’ll give him one last effort and try to send him off with a win. They are home to a likely rotated Man United team.
- Crystal Palace – Their manager is leaving as well. Benteke can’t stop scoring. Who knows.
- Southampton – Not a damn thing. They could move up to 12th with a win and other results going their way but that’s just lining the pockets of the owner.
- Newcastle – Nada.
- Brighton – Nada mucho but they don’t really ever quit. They’ll give an effort.
- Burnley – Talk about vacation mode. My God.
- Fulham – Parker keeps throwing out players he thinks will be around for next year. Hint – they aren’t very good.
- West Brom – The manager showed up to the press conference with a beer after the last game. That’s where they are. Allardyce is stepping down after the game. He might actually try to play attacking soccer just for kicks but most likely a limp performance.
- Sheffield Utd – It’d be nice to get to 20 goals scored. Think about that…if they finish on 19 goals they’ll have averaged just 0.5 goals per game this season. Of course they are relegated.
END OF SEASON RACE FOR AWARDS
- Salah – LIV – $9.5k
- In play for the golden boot for the league’s top goal scorer. Monster favorites.
- Mane – LIV – $9.2k
- Rodrigo – LEE – $6.7k
- Kane – TOT – $8.7k
- Pens and chasing the golden boot.
- Pulisic – CHE – $6.8K
- Vardy – LEI – $5.8k
- One of these times he’s going to score! Spurs could quick and I’ll take the pesky little flea up front to grab a goal here.
- B Silva – MCI – $5.9k
- Oxlade-Chamberlain – LIV – $3.7k
- He likely won’t start but if he does he’ll make my cash lineup.
- Cordoba-Reid – FUL – $4.6k
- Decent cheap F option who’s trying to show out late in the season.
- Let’s start here – if Bruno or KDB start, they are both capable of #1 slot but I don’t think either start. Both could come on late to get some fitness in.
- Mount – CHE – $7.7k
- Villa were an open book against Spurs.
- Pereira – WBA – $8.7k
- We have the perfect combination of a crafty player against a helter skelter team who will be pushing for goals. He’s a little banged up so he’s not a lock but his upside is quite high.
- Ward-Prose – SOU – $7.9k
- Very safe but great floor.
- Torres – MCI – $6.5k
- Likely to start and get a good run considering he won’t be in the running for a first 11 place in the UCL final.
- Lingard – WH – $8.2k
- One last hoorah before J Lings heads back to United to eventually be sold.
- Willock – NEW – $6.9k
- He’s ruthless in front of goal and certainly stating his case for a return back to Arsenal and the first team but he’s not a volume shooter and certainly isn’t cheap plus I’m not likely to stack NEW. Perhaps a 1-off player.
- Tielemans – LEI – $7.2k
- Maddison cramped his style a bit last game but did little to impress and I wouldnt be surprised to see him return to the bench and get out of Tielemans’ way.
OTHERS – Shelvey, Ziyech, Saka, Smith-Rowe, Jorginho, Carvalho, Rice
- Alexander-Arnold – LIV – $7.8k
- I’d set the over/under on TAA crosses at 13.
- Cresswell – WH – $6.2k
- Telles – MU – $5k
- Chilwell – CHE – $5.7k
- Reguillon – TOT – $3.7k
- Mendy – MCI – $4.3k
SO many good options.
- Pickford – EVE – $3.8k
- Martinez – AVL – $4k
- Guiaita – CRY – $3.6k
- Dubravka – NEW – $4.3k
FAV GPP STACKS
- Leeds – There is no quit in Leeds and the West Brom manager has literally quit. One of the higher totals on the board. Prices are reasonable.
- Liverpool – Chalk but for good reason. They need a win and goal differential to boot.
- Chelsea – They need a win and will likely turn on the style. They are away from home and any win will do so I’m higher on the others.
- Leicester – Here is my sneaky stack. Spurs are just asking for the season to end even though technically they are still playing for something. The manager is going after this game. The star player wants out. Kane was seen saying “what’s the point” after one of his crosses bounced in the six yard box into the keeper’s hands. Leicester are at home and needing a result to get top 4.