Guess what? You get a three-fer!! I’ll preview the Friday Showdown slate as well as the 2 game slate on Saturday AND the FA Cup Final on Saturday. So enough of this…let’s get to the content.
To the desert(s)…
Let’s keep this short. Are you going 4/2 or 5/1. I don’t know that you need a massive game preview here so we’ll focus on lineup construction. Before we get there, know that Callum Wilson is out for the year. That really hurts the offensive production from the big dogs here.
For those wondering if Man City showed any mercy coming down the stretch last year I present you with this:
18/19? Same shit. They play for keeps and that’s how you should build your rosters.
In GPPs I’m chasing goals at CPT and even considering off the wall options to fit more attackers from Man City. Perhaps the main takeaway is that we aren’t sure who is going to start (thanks Pep) but we do know that we need City attackers.
One thing to keep in mind is that CBs and CDMs certainly help with your build but it’s literally just luck if they happen to go off. City create so many chances from open play that it is truly the attackers that you want to stack if possible.
MCI v Newcastle – goals from Jesus, Mahrez, OG, D Silva, Sterling.
MCI v Brighton – goals from Sterling, Jesus, Sterling, B Silva, Sterling.
MCI v Bounemouth – goals from D Silva, Jesus.
MCI v Watford – goals from Sterling, Sterling, Foden, Laporte from KDB.
MCI v Norwich – goals from Jesus, KDB, Sterling, Mahrez, Mahrez.
5 games. 21 goals. 1 from a defender. You don’t get difficulty points…
- Mahrez – MCI
- No KDB most likely means Mahrez becomes autoplay.
- Sterling – MCI
- There is a chance Pep gives him a little run just to boost his confidence.
- Jesus – MCI
- He or Aguero, whoever starts, become eligible here.
- Saint-Maximin – NEW
- He likes a big stage and excels on the counter. He also opens up quite a bit of salary.
- B Silva
GAME THOUGHTS — well they’ve made it two showdown slates so I’ll adjust!
Danny Ings makes such a difference to this team. Southampton went down early to Palace before the combination of their two frontment put them back on top for good. If the poor guy could stay healthy he would justify a move to a bigger club but for now he’ll look to power Southamton through to the end of the season.
Southampton are significantly better defensively at home v away this season. The stats back that up. Just 1.29 goals conceded at home, below the league average and allowing Southampton to take 1.41 points per game at home. Slightly less than half of their home matches have gone over 2.5 goals and here we have slight juice towards the under. That’s largely down to Fulham’s style of play as well.
Mathematically there is no chance for survival bouncing down to the Championship. Scott Parker did a fantastic job through the middle of the season getting his troops up for the challenge but you can see in the results that all the juice has been squeezed out this lemon of a roster.
Grabbing Southampton players against a dejected, relegated team makes sense.
- Ings – SOU – $10k
- Paying for it but his ceiling is higher than Ward-Prowse Pt/$.
- Ward-Prowse – SOU – $11k
- Not the top dog due to price. He could have a good game and still only get to 1.5x at this price. Safe but not sexy.
- Mitrovic – FUL – $8.4k
- Just played 90 minutes this week so perhaps they rotate to Maja but I don’t see Southampton keeping the clean sheet and want the goal scorer.
- Cavleiro – FUL – $7.6k
- Or you could take the provider. Many will look to Lookman and perhaps he has some more upside but I like the price break for a small difference in projections.
JWP, Ings, Lookman, Adams, Mitrovic, Cavleiro, Armstrong, Walcott, Tete, Walker-Peters, Anguissa, Vestergaard, Forster, Arreola
They’re safe. What a wild finish to the season and it has a bit of a lucky feel to it but Brighton are back for another Premier League season. Thanks largely to freaking Danny Welbeck of all people. His late season form did just enough to hold off those trying to battle out of the bottom 3. The sigh of relief from the staff and players could very well carry over to the pitch. Will the nerves subsiding spur the team on or take the foot off the gas pedal? Either way I have West Ham as the favorite in this match.
West Ham have everything to play for. There is a minimal chance that they can finish top 4 but top 6 isn’t guaranteed either. They want European football and see that as the logical step forward under Moyes. A point would do them well but they’ll push for all 3 points.
Dunk and Maupay will miss the match. Many others are questionable like Veltman, Lallana, etc. The Hammers get it done.
- Gross – BHA – $10.8k
- Paying for safety.
- Bowen – WH – $9.4k
- Ownership play. I believe people will flock to Gross/Lingard/Antonio. Bowen has really come on lately and should get the start.
- Soucek – WH – $5.2k
- Brigthon are tall and good on set pieces. They aren’t Soucek. He’s come close in his last 2 games. GPP only but this is a fun CPT pick at low ownership with upside.
- Welbeck – BHA – $7.8k
- He saved this team but you wonder how they’ll play now that they are safe.
You can play anyone BUT Diop. I don’t love Burn or Ben White. Dawson is good on sets. Cresswell should be back. Benrahma or Fornals could start for Bown. At that point just shift everyone up the CPT list.
I do not like Leicester’s chances in this game. Jonny Evans is in doubt after missing mid-week. Maddison is out of form. Vardy can’t buy a goal. It’s been all Tielemans and Iheanacho. Kante and Werner were rested mid-week vs Arsenal. Kante especially dictates how this team plays and when he’s on, they are likely to win.
The key here is the one-off nature of the match. Can Leicester win? Sure. If they played 10 times, perhaps Leicester would win 2 or 3 times. OR about where the odds are at the moment. You could say that since Chelsea have qualified for the Champions League their play has been less than stellar. While they’ve dominated matches, they can’t seem to put together two halves of quality football.
Against City, the first half was clearly to the advantage of City. The second half was better. Against Arsenal, the first half was balanced and the second half was all Chelsea. Why are they starting off so slow? Perhaps this is the time Leicester can catch Cheslea sleeping.
Leicester won the first matchup between these two this season. It was a home match for the foxes and they came out on top 2-0. The match took place on January 19th. Why is that important? Tuchel was appointed on January 26th. This game will have a decidedly different feel.
Both teams will need big performances from their big players but at the end of the day, I have Chelsea hoisting the trophy.
- Werner – CHE
- Form and upside meet up.
- Iheanacho – LEI
- I guess I’ll just stop doubting him now.
- Mount – CHE
- Best cash option with GPP upside.
- Havertz – CHE
- Will Tuchel trust him? Missed a sitter on a breakaway and was yanked early but he didn’t have the other German with him. I like he and Werner together.
- Vardy – LEI
- I know he’s been ass but for GPP we almost encourage that. His price is very low and it opens up many options with the rest of your build.