Duke’s EPL DFS Preview for Three-Game Sunday Funday Slate…
Happy Sunday to everyone! If you celebrate the holiday, have a fantastic Easter. My little one will be running around looking for eggs and her basket bright and early tomorrow, so expect to see me in the chat room at 8am for the Newcastle/Spurs game. My availability throughout the rest of the day will be TBD. I do plan on being in the chat room for the FUL/AVL game, but travel could cause some issues. I’ll be sure to post updates in the chat room as needed.
Let’s talk about another three-game slate. As I work through this portion of the article, Sheffield put up a good fight but lost. Next, Leicester sat back far too long, and Vardy was a foot offside on his one chance that he buried and City won 2-0. Who knows what happened in the last game because I’m hitting SUBMIT on this sucker. Hopefully, you guys were in the green. I had some decent calls and some not-so-great calls.
- Raphinha (16.9) over KDB (14.66) and Mahrez (11.42) was a winner.
- Jack Harrison, as a favorite GPP piece, was a winner. (23.42 and highest on the slate)
- Spending up on TAA was a winner regardless of how he plays.
- Vardy over Aguero….I mean, they both sucked.
- Schmeichel – Highest owned keeper (good) but didn’t get enough saves to offset the goals allowed (bad) — 0.56 pts
- Ramsdale – DID pick up the saves and scored 10.28 pts. I said he was OK for GPP, but I can’t take any credit here.
- Schmeichel > Ramsdale in cash was sound game theory (ownership proves that) but a pretty poor result.
- Vardy – Cheap goal scorer
- Offside on his one chance that he scored.
- Jesus goes off for 21.42 around the same range.
Alright, let’s get it on Sunday. It’s good to have the Prem back in our daily routine!
To the desert…
EPL DFS GAME THOUGHTS
Callum Wilson, Saint-Maximin and Dubravka are all going to be late fitness tests. The first two are more important in my opinion. They’ve won two games since mid-December, and one of the two was behind two Wilson goals. They’ve scored just three goals in their last five games and sit 17th in the table, just two points clear of Fulham and the relegation zone. There were discussions of changing the manager, even at this late date, if that gives you any indication of how things are going at St. James’ Park. Oddly enough, if you had me compare Newcastle’s playing style to anyone else’s in the table, I would say Tottenham. Obviously, Spurs have better Jimmys and Joes, but the tactics are similar. It should be no surprise that the first fixture between the two finished in a 1-1 draw.
Spurs are getting dragged left and right in the media. Kane wants out. Bale is just using them for fitness. It can almost make you forget they are in quite the purple patch at the moment. They’ve won five of their last six matches, including two away wins. Wins over Villa, Fulham and Burnley were all shutouts. It’s always tricky as teams come back from international breaks, but I would expect that would be the goal for Jose and the lads. Keep the clean sheet and let the biggins up top do the business.
This will be the Kane and Son show.
Grealish is back! That is part of the benefit of constant England snubs – rest and fitness. It’s been six games since we’ve seen Jack in the Villa side, and the results have shown how much they miss him. The 1-0 win away to Leeds is the outlier from a truly messy run of form that included a 1-0 loss to bottom dwellers Sheffield United. Realistically, Villa are playing for a position in the top half. It’d be a great improvement over the relegation-threatened 2019/20 season and a step in the right direction. Europe is a dream that will have to wait for next year.
Villa have six wins away and five wins at home. One of those away wins was a 3-0 drumming v Fulham. It’s important to note that this was the second game of the season for Villa and just the third for Fulham. Fulham are one of, if not the most, improved team this year as they’ve found their footing in the Prem.
Scott Parker will have a full squad to pick from after the return of Bobby Reid. Tom Cairney remains out but has hardly featured outside of the early portion of the season filled with losses and lopsided performances. For all of their possession, they still don’t create enough. They’ve had a tough run of matches against Spurs, Liverpool, City and Leeds. Villa is no walk in the park but is a much more winnable match, and Parker will be playing for three points with just eight games remaining and still two points away from safety. Does Parker give Mitrovic a start? He was fantastic on the international break but doesn’t quite fit the style of play Parker likes. However, two goals from four games likely require some sort of shift in tactics.
Regardless of who lines up for Fulham, I completely agree with this game having the lowest total. That does not mean we’ll avoid it from a GPP perspective. All three matches could be tight affairs.
Unfortunately, Juan Mata’s mother passed away. He hasn’t been picked in ages but will definitely not feature here. The key is that both Marcus Rashford and Mason Greenwood trained with the side on Friday. That is a big boost for two guys who will be late fitness tests. Martial is a question mark but out of form regardless. However, United will relish the return of Paul Pogba. For as much credit as Fernandes gets, and it’s all deserved, Pogba is key link in this side. The combination of McTominay and Fred is too defensive and missing that connection from back to front that Pogba brings.
Planet Football did the math for us and showed that in the 93 EPL games Pogba has started, United have won 51, drew 26 times, and lost 16. They picked up 1.92 points per game over that stretch. In games without Pogba in the first 11, that total drops to 1.61 points per game with 14 losses from 49 matches. Just look at this pass….pure sex.
United have run roughshod over Brighton. They’ve scored three goals against Brighton in their last four meetings, in all competitions, conceding just three goals while scoring 12 themselves. Considering the defensive issues for United, I wouldn’t be shocked to see both teams score here, but I do have United scoring multiple goals and winning the match. The back-to-back wins for Brighton have provided enough cushion for the shoulders to relax and perhaps take away the urgency they’ve shown of late. It should be an exciting match.
EPL DFS PLAYS
- Kane – TOT – $10.3k – Cash and GPP
- Gross – BHA – $8.7k – Cash and GPP
- Bale – TOT – $8.5k – GPP only
- Cavani – MU – $6k – GPP only
- Trossard – BHA – $7.8k – GPP only
- Rashford – MU – $7.1k – GPP only
- Lookman – FUL – $8.9k – GPP only
- Moura – TOT – $9.2k – GPP only
- Loses a ton of value in Son starts. Too expensive if he doesn’t.
- Almiron – NEW – $6.2k – GPP only
- Maja – FUL – $4.7k – GPP only
- Watkins – AVL – $7.7k – GPP only
- Wilson – NEW – $7.9k – GPP only
NOTE: Heung-Min – TOT – $9.8k
I’m always cautious with hamstring injuries. I like him quite a bit, but he would be GPP only here if he starts. Far too expensive for a potential early sub.
- Fernandes – MU – $10.6k – Cash and GPP
- Grealish – AVL – $9.7k – Cash and GPP
- James – MU – $4.9k – Cash and GPP
- Pogba – MU – $5.9k – GPP only
- McGinn – AVL – $4.4k – GPP only
- Lo Celso – TOT – $4.7k – GPP only
- Ndombele – TOT – $3.3k – Cash and GPP
- Fraser – NEW – $7.6k – Cash and GPP
- Bissouma – BHA – $3k – Cash and GPP
- Anguissa – FUL – $3.2k – GPP only
- Shaw – MU – $6.7k – Cash and GPP
- Veltman – BHA – $4.9k – Cash and GPP
- Targett – AVL – $5.5k – Cash and GPP
- Wan-Bissaka – MU – $4.8k – Cash and GPP
- Aurier – TOT – $5.8k – GPP only
- Burn – BHA – $3.9k – Cash and GPP
- Aina – FUL – $3.6k – GPP only
- Tete – FUL – $4.5k – GPP only
- Martinez – AVL – $5.1k – Cash and GPP
- Areola – FUL – $4.4k – Cash and GPP
- Sanchez – BHA – $3.8k – GPP only
- Dubravka – NEW – $4k – GPP only
A quick run through the cash build spit out a pretty gross-looking lineup. I was building around Gross/Fernandes/Shaw/Veltman. That left just $4,775 per player. I had little to no Aston Villa, so Arreola made sense in what could be a low-scoring game. With TOT likely pressing the NEW backline, I was willing to take a chance with Ndombele to save $. The rest is a crapshoot. Let’s see how team news shakes out in the morning. See y’all in the chat!
Good luck!! New to DFS Soccer? Here’s an intro with Duke’s Rules & Strategies!