Duke’s EPL DFS Preview for Saturday’s four-match slate…
What in the world did we do to deserve this? I’ll be good, I promise, Mr. EPL match maker!! Three shit games with one decent game over three different start times…
Let’s go glass half full, shall we? There is no massive favorite. We don’t have Man City with squad rotation. We don’t have Liverpool, who are Jekyll and Hyde. We do have six teams with players from each that are viable in cash and GPP contests. The choices are endless! Well, not endless, but we will have choices.
Thursday brought us an easy cash lineup. Gotta love that! Let’s break these babies down.
To the desert…
EPL DFS GAME THOUGHTS
Can Burnley take any good thoughts away from the 2-0 loss to Man City? It’s a big question, and I think the answer is yes. They didn’t create much themselves, but they overloaded the left side forcing Mahrez and Cancelo into ancillary roles and making others beat them. Unfortunately, Man City has a bunch of “others” who can and did beat them, but the scoreline wasn’t awful, and outside of a big save Pope made when Sterling was in behind, I can’t remember many other massive chances that were missed. Realistically, they would take three points from their games with Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City, and that’s exactly what they got.
Burnley have four of their six wins at home but are scoring just 0.8 goals per game at home. With only 30% of their home matches going over 2.5 goals, the Vegas total seems appropriate. They did rest Barnes and Wood, so perhaps a fresh front line will spark life back into this feeble attack.
Brighton is good. They don’t always perform up to their potential, but they are finally healthy and giving the big boys fits. Back-to-back wins over Spurs and Liverpool will have them buzzing. It’s the rest of the table that gives them trouble. It’s as if they play to their competition. They are yet to lose to a team below them in the table, and three of those six matches ended in 0-0 draws. Graham Potter knows how to stay up, and coming off of two wins, it will be interesting if he has his boys push on for a third or tries to keep the zero and get a point. Of their five wins, only one has come when their opponent has scored.
OK, the performance against Everton was a fluke. Spot the outlier…
That is just piss poor form, and dropping all three points to Palace, especially when they were up 1-0 in the match, has to sting. It was a baffling performance where Newcastle looked like the better side for essentially the entire game. They only allowed six shots with three on target and conceded two goals, one a deflection. Ryan Fraser was a bright spot, and Jonjo Shelvey took his goal well, but it might be time to return Dubravka in goal. Newcastle have won three of the last four matches these teams have played in the Prem, winning every game in which they scored.
Could we see 3+ goals in this game? Newcastle concede 1.73 at home, and Southampton concede 2.1 away. You know what doesn’t help that number for Southampton?
NINE! NINE!!! NINNNNNEEEEE!!!!!
A couple of things about this scoreline: 1) unlucky to Jankewitz who was making his first start in the Prem as a teenager and left a foot in high just 60 seconds into the match. That red card immediately put them behind the eight ball. 2) Bednarek ALSO picked up a red card, BUT it was overturned after the match. He’s the rock in that backline. Romeu is out. Walker-Peters is still out. Smallbone is out. Salisu is out. They are the walking wounded. They could hand a debut to their new loan signing coming over from Liverpool. Minamino was bought on the cheap after a fantastic UCL season last year but didn’t breakthrough. He’s better than Walcott. He’s better than Redmond. He’s better than Adams. He’ll add quality to this side. I’m just curious to see where he is played and how they incorporate him into the squad.
I do think we see goals in this game, and while I’d rather not pick a side, I’ll take the over.
Fulham suffered a setback against Leicester, but once again, they looked like the better team for large parts of the match. Think about that. They are in a relegation battle and looked better than a team competing for top 4. Once again, the possession was great, but where were the big chances? With this system, Parker needs one or both of the wingers to break down a defense and provide service to the forward. Lookman can do just that, but it’s RLC who’s in the better form. They face a team that does exactly the opposite.
West Ham don’t need possession to create. They have pace in the final third on the counter attack, a forward who can hold up play in Antonio and an absolute WEAPON on set pieces in Soucek. SOUCEKKKKKK!!! The man has seven goals. That leads both teams this season. It’s wild… Oh yeah, Messi Lingard scored two goals.
I can’t believe they threw him in the deep end, to be honest. Not that West Ham play some super complex system, but did he even know everyone’s names? It didn’t matter. Two goals later, and West Ham are cruising to three points. While his transfer was largely mocked, it’s easy to forget that just a few years ago he was playing for England in the World Cup and Man United in the biggest games of the year. He’s better than a lot of what they have, and if they can add Bowen to the mix with Antonio and Lingard, defenses will have an awful lot to consider.
I’m looking forward to this one.
You’d be hard-pressed to ask for a better previous result than Man United had. Playing against 10 men for 89 minutes. Playing against nine for 10 minutes. It was slightly more taxing than a walk in the park but much less than a usual game. On top of that, Ole was able to pull Rashford off nice and early to rest his tired legs. Martial scored two goals off the bench. Bruno bagged a penalty. The game against Southampton ticked every box. On top of that, the boys look like they are really enjoying themselves in training. There is a sense of team amongst the squad right now, and I expect a best 11, best effort on Saturday afternoon.
Everton picked up two early goals against Leeds but were on the back foot for most of the match. Leeds had 67% possession and outshot Everton 16 to 10. Basically, it was a great ball in by Digne for the first goal and a set piece flicked header to the back post for the second. After that, there wasn’t much to write home about. It was an important win with Everton on the slide and coming off a bad loss to Newcastle but didn’t show me anything to give me great confidence heading into this match. Ancelotti was clearly determined to give James Rodriguez a rest as he was unused off the bench.
I’d have to give the edge to United in this match, and they are the -195 favorite. That’s a touch juicy, considering the talent Everton possess, but I still back them to win.
EPL DFS PLAYS
- Rashford – MU – $9.5k
- Antonio – WH – $8.8k
- Martial – MU – $7.7k
- Almiron – NEW – $7.2k
- Trossard – BHA – $8.3k
- Fernandes – MU – $10.8k
- Fraser – NEW – $7.7k
- Gross – BHA – $9.2k
- Lingard – WH – $4.9k
- Ward-Prowse – SOU – $7.9k
- Saint-Maximin – NEW – $4.4k
- Soucek – WH – $7k
- Fred – MU – $3.4k
- Shaw – MU – $6.7k
- Digne – EVE – $6.6k
- Schar – NEW – $3k
- Wan-Bissaka – MU – $5.9k
- Cresswell – WH – $5.8k
- Mina – EVE – $3.6k
- Pope – BUR – $4.2k
- Dubravka – NEW – $4.5k
- IF HE STARTS – Not Darlow
- De Gea – MU – $5.7k
Good luck!! New to DFS Soccer? Here’s an intro with Duke’s Rules & Strategies!