Duke’s EPL DFS Preview for Thursday’s Showdown slate…
Just the one match on Thursday, but it is a banger. There are a few interesting tactical notes that I’ll tough on below, but it’s time to switch our brains from CLASSIC builds to SHOWDOWN. The good news is that we can’t have a split EPL DFS slate with only one game. We’ll know team news. We’ll be able to make every decision at once. Let’s get to it!
To the desert…
VEGAS
EPL DFS GAME THOUGHTS
TOT/CHE
Who is in a tougher spot right now? You have to say Tottenham, right? Chelsea bit the bullet, fired their manager (who happens to be a club legend), shifted their tactical approach, and started to see results. Spurs have Jose.
Spurs also have injuries (Kane, Lo Celso, Reguillon). They have disgruntled players (Alli). They’ve dropped two straight in the Prem but get to head home to settle the ship. The opponent is not one you want to face in this situation. Chelsea will dominate the ball. Jose will let them, frankly. This is set up as a classic Jose smash and grab. What does that mean? It’s not apples to apples because the players involved in this video could run circles around every single player in this game but enjoy this tactical breakdown from Jose Mourinho.
If you don’t want to watch the video, the recap is they defended and counter attacked with purpose. They only had 30% possession but knew if they could handle Messi and stay compact elsewhere, they’d be able to win possession and hit them on the break. I don’t know if it will be 70/30, but it could very well be.
In the two matches Chelsea have played under Tuchel, they’ve had 723 passes and 898 passes. As you can probably imagine, one of those was a Premier League record.
In the 2-0 win v Burnley, you can see that the ball was passed along the back and down the right side, mostly.
Against Wolves in the 0-0 draw, it’s even more ridiculous.
The theme? Possession. Patient possession as well. There is a willingness to keep the ball just for the sake of keeping the ball. The theory goes, when you have the ball, you can’t concede a goal. Defense through possession. Jose will let them pass it around the back all day if they’d like.
The big question for me is who starts up front for Spurs. The Son/Bergwijn partnership ain’t it. They could go back to the 4-2-3-1 formation and give Vinicius a start. Son is much better and much more impactful off the wing.
The game flow should be Chelsea possession, either a shot or a turnover leading to a counter attack by Spurs ending in a shot or a quick turnover and more pressure and possession by Chelsea.
EPL DFS PLAYS
CAPTAIN
- Ziyech – CHE – $11.6k
- You are paying for it, but he has a floor and upside. The majority of the DFS points from Chelsea come from the wide areas. (Insert Mount up top if Ziyech doesn’t start)
- Hudson-Odoi – CHE – $10.6k
- Double-digit floor points in both starts for Tuchel with upside.
- Heung-Min – TOT – $11.2k
- Considering the price and how little of the ball they’ll have, I can only recommend this for GPP as a contrarian build. He’ll have ownership in the flex, but I expect very little at CPT, making him an intriguing option.
- Azpilicueta – CHE – $7k
- Want a little price break? Azpi has double-digit floor points in both games under Tuchel.
- Werner – CHE – $9.4k
- For upside, take the man who can’t finish a bag of chips. Again, he’s getting the chances. That is the hard part. He’ll come good at some point, and for his upside, this is relatively cheap.
FLEX
- Ziyech – Cash and GPP
- Hudson-Odoi – Cash and GPP
- Mount – Cash and GPP
- Heung-Min – GPP
- Azpilicueta – Cash and GPP
- Kovacic – Cash and GPP
- Werner – GPP
- Sissoko – Cash and GPP
- Mendy – Cash and GPP
- Aurier – Cash and GPP
- Alonso – GPP
- Davies – GPP
- Vinicius – GPP
- Lloris – GPP
- Ndombele – GPP
Good luck!! New to DFS Soccer? Here’s an intro with Duke’s Rules & Strategies!
