Duke’s EPL DFS Preview for Sunday’s late two-game slate…
It’s a Sunday. We can make it a Funday. Let’s cash.
We have a bit of a mini-break after this slate with nothing until next weekend. It’s easy to forget that was the norm not too long ago. We’ve been spoiled for choice and almost to the point of it being detrimental to our game.
With more contests are more opportunities to win or lose. As of the publishing of this article it’s looking like I’m going to lose in cash. Torres was a stinker and while the rest of my lineup is doing alright, most of it is chalky and Fulham are winning. My GK might screw me.
Let’s get it on Sunday.
To the desert…
VEGAS
-Tottenham +105 2.5 (-125o/+105u)
Leicester City +265
Draw +250
-Man United -150 3.5 (+115o/-140u)
Leeds United +360
Draw +335
GAME THOUGHTS
TOT/LEI –
Did the pressure get to Spurs? Jose did so well to get Tottenham to the top of the table behind Kane and Son. Just one win from the last four and losing to Liverpool pushed them off their perch. It’s not like the fall was massive; the sit second in the table.
The problem for Tottenham is the same one Jose has quite often. They simply don’t score enough goals. It puts tremendous pressure on your defensive unit knowing they better keep a clean sheet or they might drop points.
The haters will point to the five they put past Southampton, the six(!) they put past Man United and the three they blew by West Ham. For one, all of those games came in a four game span. Perhaps it was simply a good run of form?
Second, that was in September and October. We are reaching Christmas and Jose’s team hasn’t scored more than two goals since that West Ham game. Jose and Tottenham won 3-0 in this match last year.
While I’d be a little surprised by that score line should it repeat this year, I wouldn’t be shocked. Leicester were horrendous against the top of the table last season. In fact, they didn’t win a single away match against any team in the top eight. Keep in mind, Sheffield United were 9th last season…
To counter that point a touch, they do have 5-2 and 4-1 wins over Man City and Leeds away. Leeds won’t sniff top eight but City will surely work it’s way back into the top four, if not title race. They were however hammered 3-0 by Liverpool away.
The odd piece with Leicester is that they do have depth almost everywhere on the field. They are severely lacking at the F position with Vardy but the boy is the Energizer Bunny.
I like Spurs to bounce back here with multiple goals. I’m not saying Leicester can’t win but Spurs will back at least two goals here.
MU/LEE –
Man United have some of the worst home form in the league. They have just one win (over West Brom) from six home matches this season in the Prem. They have had some success at home in other competitions but for whatever reason they can’t get it done.
Ole blamed the lack of fans and said to expect better performances when they return. Wut? Keep in mind, they have six wins from six away from home. This is just an odd team with inconsistent performances. It could be a sign of the time or it could be a manager that’s over his skis.
Leeds have done well away from home in their return to Prem with three away wins already. For a side that was just promoted, that’s splendid form. I know we all had high hopes and expectations but their performances are far closer to being in line with proper expectations than the lofty goals set by some in the media.
This is another game that could feature quite a few goals. United just bagged three. Leeds have conceded four to Palace, three to Chelsea and four to Liverpool. They also conceded three to freaking Fulham but that’s besides the point…
I wouldn’t’ be shocked to Leeds score here, maybe even first. The result at the end of the 90 will contain a lot of goals but who knows will be on top? My guess is United get the win here.
DFS
FORWARDS
- Martial – MU – $7k
He did so many things that just didn’t quite show up in the DK logs that lead me to believe that he can match his performance from last time. He still grabbed the goal and assist but with 4 SOG he’s ready to go for 2+ goals.
- Rashford – MU – $8.9k
Any time I see someone take a 50 yard ball out of the air with one touch and then strike it on goal from 20 yards without hesitation I’m impressed. That screams confidence. The fact that he pulled it off and bagged a goal is insane. They are favorites here against a team that concedes goals. Great option.
- Hueng-Min – TOT – $9.5k
He’s in the conversation for best player in the Prem and he keeps producing every game. He simply doesn’t get ENOUGH chances to prove his ability. If he played for Bayern Munich he’d be in the Ballon d’Or conversation. Only 1 shot in each of his last 3 but 2 goals.
- Raphinha – LEE – $6.1k
With their issues on set pieces I’ll just continue grabbing whoever is taking them against Manchester United. He has open play value and managed 7 shots against Newcastle. Even if we halve that I’ll be buzzing at the potential.
- Vardy – LEI – $7.5k
Jose has gone with the defense first tactics as usual so there is risk with this play but DK has done a great job making him enticing. Unfortunately, I see him getting 1-2 shots off. We will need extreme efficiency which is not Vardy’s game.
MIDFIELDERS
- Klich – LEE – $5.8k
Another game, another assist. The guy just keeps producing and United are prone to conceding goals. I’d be happy with 10 points here
- Fernandes – MU – $10.3k
I don’t know if it’s good or bad that he’s been less influential for this attack but Telles has really cut into his production. The loss of set pieces and slight tactical shift from Ole PLUS the lack of penalty kicks has hurt Bruno. The upside is still there but I think we can go elsewhere for production.
- Maddison – LEI – $8.1k
It does look like he’s still working his way back to fitness a touch. He’s more influential when they don’t have a ton of the ball and he can slot Vardy through on goal. It’s going to be two teams asking the other to possess the ball so they can counter. That stalemate makes me hesitate at this price.
- Ndombele – TOT – $4k
How much can we squeeze out of 70 minutes? That’s all we’ll get but the price is nice.
- Pogba – MU – $3.9k
I was fully prepared to fade him and then this price…. He actually assisted Martial’s goal but the GK got a slight piece of the ball and it negated the assist. 2 shots assisted but 0 crosses. He stays central and a bit deeper which hurts his fantasy production but for the price he’s fine.
- Harrison – LEE – $6.8k
It’s to the point where I’m scared to fade him. He just keeps producing but he has struggled against the big boys on the road….which this match is..
DEFENDERS
- Telles – MU – $5.8k
Cash play with some GPP upside. Mostly a floor play.
- Reguilllon – TOT – $4.6k
With side rotation he should get the start and he’s the more productive of the two fullbacks.
- Alioski – LEE – $4.5k
Again, let’s wait to see where he lines up but if it’s anywhere closer to the side line than the middle we are in good shape. Ignore the goal from last time even though it was a banger. Simply not something we can project but highlights his ability. Decent value.
- Justin – LEI – $5k
More floor than upside.
- Aureier – TOT – $4.9k
Always a threat to get a yellow but upside is there.
- Fofana – LEI – $3.5k
Apparently he’s a viable punt…1 cross in 4 matches but he’s at 5-6 every time.
- Ndidi – LEI – $3k
Rinse. Repeat. CDM with D eligibility.
GOALKEEPERS
(HATE this slate for GK – play who fits)
- Lloris
- De Gea
- Schmeichel
- Messlier
Just for shits and giggles and because I’d already done the work…
-West Brom +275 2.5 (-130o/+110u)
Aston Villa -110
Draw +280
WBA/AVL –
At some point, close isn’t good enough and the 1-1 draw was close to being a dream result. Apparently it wasn’t enough for Bilic to keep his job. It’s sad really because the man put his heart and soul into every match but the product on the field just wasn’t getting it done.
This is a business and the owner felt the best path forward was with someone else. I’ll be interested to see how the players respond because Bilic was generally liked. They weren’t any good before. How much worse can it get?
Villa will test that question. The draw against Burnley will feel like points dropped but they’ve been quite good this year. They played well against Burnley but hit the crossbar and missed several good chances.
I can see a draw or Villa win. I can’t quite wrap my head around West Brom winning this match but I’ve been proven wrong before.
GOOD LUCK!
