Back of the Net: EPL DFS Preview – 1/28

Duke’s EPL DFS Preview for Thursday’s Showdown slate…

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Yoooo!

Very interesting Wednesday EPL DFS slate. With the timing of the games, the one big favorite and a whole bunch of question marks, it was always going to be a tough slate to peg. Honestly, I don’t think I did particularly well. I was shocked by some ownership, the way teams played and even some things like formational setup, which is typically a strength.  

I wish I knew why it wasn’t particularly good, so I can avoid it in the future, but my process was exactly the same. The research was the same. The ranking was the same. I’ll stop short of just saying it’s one of those days because that doesn’t get any of us very far, but I also don’t want to overanalyze it and get away from what’s brought us success for a few years. Let’s take a quick peek at a few things specifically that surprised me. 

This is from the $5 single entry cash game. Why this contest? Most of y’all can and do play these stakes. It also has a nice mix of sharps and casual players.

OWNERSHIP

Here are your top 10 most owned players regardless of position.  

Bruno Fernandes, at 83.53%, was shocking to me. I fully understand Man United were the biggest favorites. I understand Bruno is on set pieces and is capable of going for 40 points. But why? The price and his current role turned me off. Telles or Shaw has taken over most set pieces. Pogba has become the creative force in midfield. Bruno, at times, has the game pass him by. I expected him to be closer to 45-50% ownership. That projection is WAY off. Want to know what surprised me even more? 

Their ownership does correlate, so it makes sense for one to go up and the other to go down. Knowing I had both at around 50%, Bruno going to 84% would mean about 34% less for Maddison would put him at….16%. Cool. Cool. 

Goalkeeper wasn’t much of a surprise, but the results certainly were.  

Remember, this is cash ownership and taken about 20 minutes into the late games, so the scores aren’t final. All of these make complete sense, but this is likely one of the biggest indicators of whether you cashed or not. 

Finally, Chelsea took to Tuchel’s mindset like a fish to water. Honestly, it happened faster than I anticipated, and not only did they go to a back 3, they played it a million times better than Wolves, who train with the back 3 every day all day. They also completed 820 passes with 78% possession. The 820 is the most passes completed this season. WOW. They only took 14 shots but had 12 corner kicks. It was pure domination by Chelsea and really hurt any Wolves player. We’ll have to watch this team moving forward. 

Alright enough about Wednesday, let’s talk about Thursday action!

To the desert…

VEGAS

EPL DFS GAME THOUGHTS

TOT/LIV

WHAT A GAME.

Typically, this game is won by Liverpool. In fact, you have to go all the way back to early 2018 to see the last time these teams tied. If you want to find the last Spurs win, you have to go back to 2017, with their next win in 2012. Basically, it’s been one-way traffic to a degree. This is a different Liverpool side.  

I don’t want to say I was first to point out the pending demise of Liverpool, but was I first? And is demise too strong for a team still likely to make the top 4? Probably, but they haven’t won a game in the Prem since December. They’ve lost two of their last three. They haven’t scored a goal in four straight Prem matches. Liverpool did score two against United in the FA Cup but conceded three! They simply can’t get over the hump, and with UCL action coming back in a few weeks, the fixture list will only get more congested.  

Spurs look good. I’ve said it from jump street, if Kane and Son can stay healthy, they are a top 4 team. They sit sixth thanks to a rough spell in 2020 but are finding their form as we head into the back half of the season. If there is a soft spot in their form table, it’s against fellow top-half clubs. As the likes of Chelsea, Leicester and Everton are improving, the BIG 6 needs to be expanded. Hell, West Ham are sitting fourth! Spurs lost to Leicester, Liverpool (2-1), and Everton with draws against West Ham and Chelsea. It’s important to note the loss to Liverpool was at Anfield and before Christmas when Liverpool looked like the old Liverpool.  

So what happens Thursday? History is typically a pretty good indicator of future performance but by no means perfect. This does not have the feel or appeal of a Jose 0-0 park the bus type of game. The inclination is to say that Liverpool will stiffen their backs, put out a first 11 and go for goal. They looked really good in spells against United but defensively have a lot of question marks. I like this game to go over the 2.5 total. Who wins? Your guess is as good as mine.

EPL DFS PLAYS

CAPTAIN

1. Alexander-Arnold – LIV – $8.4k
   • He’s less than a year removed from a 20-cross game against Tottenham and has reprised his role on set pieces. If they go behind, he’ll cross more. Several game scripts lead to a nice floor for TAA. 
2. Kane – TOT – $10.2k
   • Sparkling form with goals in three straight behind 14 shots. They could play on the break, and Liverpool have doubled Spurs’ touches in recent matches, but Kane and Son are deadly together. 
3. Heung-Min – TOT – $10.4k
   • Set pieces and a monster on the counter-attack. I can see going Son in cash at the CPT spot and Kane perhaps for GPPs.  
4. Salah – LIV – $9.6k
   • Found his shooting boots against United and will cause Reguilon trouble off the left if he starts. Although, Spurs might opt for the more defensively sound Ben Davies with Reguilon carrying a knock.  
5. Robertson – LIV – $8.8k
   • Significant price discount from Mane as both will operate off the right-wing. He and TAA typically provide the width in this attack, and it simply depends on which side Klopp chooses to attack.  
6. Lloris – TOT – $5.6k
   • Want a value CPT? Liverpool struggled to score. Spurs sorting things out defensively. A good shot-stopper in the value price range at home. There are some avenues to success here. 

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FLEX

1. Salah
2. Kane
3. TAA
4. Mane
5. Heung-Min
6. Robertson
7. Ndombele
8. Aurier
9. Firmino
10. Henderson
11. Lloris
12. Reguilon
13. Bergwijn
14. Hojbjerg
15. Wijnaldum

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