Duke’s EPL DFS Preview for Tuesday’s two-match slate!!
Ello! I don’t know about you guys but that was a very up and down weekend for me. Saturday being down and Sunday being up.
I didn’t even need to look it up, I just knew that Patrick Bamford officially put out the worst performance of a #1 forward on my board EVER. We knew he wasn’t going to be involved in the build up but that was shocking.
Leeds couldn’t create a damn thing! Contrast that with Kane and Son having great starts to Sunday and then coasting to a cash and it couldn’t have been more night and day.
As usual, the fun doesn’t stop. We have slates all week and I’ll have content for all of it. I joked that I should only do cheat sheets from now on and that was quickly shot down so we are back to the article format!
This is a fun two game slate. WBA is still without their #1 GK but are coming off a win. Chelsea need to right the ship. Let’s get into it.
To the desert…
VEGAS
1:00pm
-West Ham -165 2.5 (-115o/-105u)
West Brom +475
Draw +295
3:15pm
-Leicester City +210 2.5 (-120o/EVENu)
Chelsea +130
Draw +245
GAME THOUGHTS
WH/WBA –
West Brom won! Antonio scored! What can we glean from these two outcomes? Nothing from the first one. A lot from the second.
Why nothing from the first? Well, West Brom didn’t do anything spectacular. In fact, in a sense they horribly failed their goal. Under Big Sam they’ll try to keep the clean sheet and bag a goal somehow. That is how they’ll play.
The three goals they scored may seem like an outburst of attacking soccer but, in truth, it was made through two converted free kicks. That Wolves bagged two on them is the concern. That also comes behind conceding nine goals against Leeds and Arsenal.
I have West Ham ranked only slightly behind Wolves with a touch more attacking talent at the moment. This will not be an easy task and West Brom aren’t about to go on some fantastic run to guarantee they stay up.
For West Ham a big question was answered: Can they rely on Antonio to lead the line? It sure looks that way.
For those who are relatively new to the Prem or just don’t watch as closely as I do, it’s easy to miss how many different positions Antonio has played in the past few years. He’s played forward. He’s played right and left wing. Right midfield. Right wing back. Even right fullback!
It’s quite unusual for a player at this level to be moved around that much. It’s a touch similar to how Wolves have used Adama Traore to be honest and I think it’s hurt their development. If Antonio can find a home and be trusted as the number nine he and West Ham could kick on and secure their place in the top half of the table.
He’ll be our focal point from a DFS perspective in this matchup that we’ll certainly target. West Brom have conceded 11 goals in three games. I like West Ham to win.
LEI/CHE –
WOW. Chelsea desperately needed the win against Fulham and had to wait until late to get the lead. It sure looked like Frank had an eye on this fixture with his team selection and said as much in the post match interview.
On the same day Leicester made easy work of an undermanned Southampton. The Leicester win allowed Rodgers to bring off Maddison in the 77th and Vardy in the 90th but they won’t be the fresher team when the whistle blows on Tuesday.
It’s crazy to think about the legitimate conversations around Chelsea being title challengers in the fall knowing what we know now. Chelsea sit 7th in the table, six points behind Leicester and eight off the top of the table.
There are rumors of Chelsea being willing to break their transfer record to get Haaland in the door. Good luck with that boys! Maybe start with getting a result against Leicester and worry about world domination on Wednesday.
These teams are very similar and tend to play close matches. You have to go back to the 3-0 Chelsea win away to Leicester in 2017 to find the most recent multi-goal victory by either side.
At the moment Leicester are the more creative side. In three of the last four games these teams have played Chelsea has outshot Leicester.
This version of these two teams could be a different scenario. On form alone this should be Leicester’s game to lose. They are at home with James Maddison coming off a goal and Harvey Barnes putting it all together. Chelsea should have James, Werner, Abraham and others relatively fresh.
1-1 draw for me.
DFS
FORWARDS
- Antonio – WHU – $8k
This is a quick turnaround but West Brom have serious warts and his pace/power will give them issues. This is more of a GPP play as I don’t see him getting more then 3-4 shots and his new role essentially eliminates all peripheral output.
- Bowen – WHU – $8.1k
From a cash perspective, I prefer Bowen. He’s grabbed back his share of set pieces and formed a great partnership with Antonio at the end of last season that looks to be rekindled.
- Vardy – LEI – $6.8k
This is too cheap. The reason I wasn’t rostering attackers against Chelsea after the Mendy transfer was how solid they were defensively. They weren’t conceding goals. Fast forward to the last month and it’s nothing but. They conceded 3 to Arsenal. They conceded 3 to Man City. We just need 1 and we are sitting at 2x. He was the nuts against Southampton but couldn’t find the back of the net on 1 of his 7 shots.
- Werner – CHE – $6.7k
On paper, this makes no sense. He’s awful. What a disappointment he’s been for Chelsea after all the money they shelled out to get him. BUT it’s easy to forget the 7 weeks where he was looking like his old self earlier in the year. He went for 32.6, 1.8, 18.2, 17.2, 10.6, 4.7 and 20.4 during that run. His pace is his biggest weapon and Leicester aren’t the paciest team at the back. GPP only. He’s gone for 1.1, 2.2 and 2.1 in his last 3. Ownership should be down. If he’s off the left I don’t like him. If he’s the main striker I like him to split the D and get in behind. If he can finish the chance we are in great shape.
- Robinson – WBA – $4.6k
Pacey forward who doesn’t get many chances in this system but can cause the WH backline some issues. Big Sam might be chasing this game which should force them to open up.
MIDFIELDERS
- Maddison – LEI – $8.6k
When you see goals from Xhaka, Gundogan, Saka, KDB and Foden against Chelsea you might want to look to the midfield talent of their opponent. He bagged one last game and the confidence will be high. I thought he’d be $9.5k so we are getting a touch of a discount here. Top play from the game.
- Barnes – LEI – $6.9k
I LOVE Barnes in this game. First, his form is insane. 13 shots in his last 3 matches and he’s finally getting shots on target. You can’t score if you don’t and he’s figuring that out. He has a goal in 3 of his last 4. He will be up against it with Reece James likely lining up at RB but his pace is second to none. It’s hard to pay this price in cash but he’ll be a priority in GPP contests.
- Mount – CHE – $8.4k
Damn ths is a touch much but I’m assuming Ziyech won’t be starting this match which means Mount should get back the majority of set pieces. I mentioned they’ve outshot LEI recently in their matches and Moutn will shoot on site. He took the match winner well last week. He’s not a lock for cash but certainly in consideration.
- Tielemans – LEI – $5.7k
0 crosses and 2 assists. Cool! I project him closer to his mean than his ceiling in this matchup considering he’ll have the midfield 3 of Chelsea to deal with but he can certainly pick a pass.
- Pereira – WBA – $7.5k
Do not get suckered into paying this price. Do not get suckered into paying this price. Do not get suckered into paying this price. Ahhh I might do it. No one should be over $6.5k in a Sam Allardyce system. If he gets 2 penalties again this will look cheap. He’ll be in my player pool but not a priority. Mostly FADE territory.
DEFENDERS
- James – CHE – $5.7k
Rested for the last match and should feature from the start. Double digit scoring in 8 of his last 9. Super solid.
- Castagne – LEI – $4k
I wish the attacking numbers looked better but he’s creating a bigger defensive base for points than I originally anticipated. The attacking stats at this point can be considered upside.
- Coufal – WHU – $5.9k
I love the price break from Creswell and expect 6-7 crosses from Coufal which would be near a season high. I’d like to see more shots from his game to justify this price which is why even in a tougher matchup I like James more.
- Cresswell – WHU – $7k
I’ve moved off rostering him so much because of his price and then it goes up…Tough to justify this price but a match against WBA should create plenty of chances for him to cross. They have 3 straight clean sheets in his starts and West Brom struggle to score. 10-12 points is realistic but I think we can get there with others.
- Rudiger – CHE – $3k
He’ll probably slide back to the bench in favor of Silva/Zouma but he was pretty darn good against Fulham and deserves to keep his place. He once again was able to find a shot and put it on goal. That’s gold at this price if he starts.
- Soyuncu – LEI – $2.6k
He’s back! He was slowly being worked back into the team but after 37 minutes against Southampton, he should be ready to get the nod from the start. This is salary relief with some upside. Realistically his floor is between 0 and 1 point but he can get to 5-6 points in a relatively blah performance so he’s fine to include in the player pool.
GOALKEEPERS
- Schmeichel – LEI – $4.7k
The price and build correlation make sense for him to be my #1 GK for the $.
- Fabianksi – WHU – $5.7k
I don’t know that I can pay this but he is my highest projected GK on the slate considering WBA’s issues scoring.
- Button – WBA – $4k
No Johnstone who is still recovering from Covid. He looked much better in the second half after a nervous first last time out.
- Mendy – CHE – $5.1k
Away dogs and still over $5k… It’s a 2 game slate so if your build fits then I get it but not a priority.
GOOD LUCK!
