Duke’s EPL DFS Preview for Tuesday’s two-match slate!!
WELCOMEEE BAAACKKKKKKK!!
We got those silly EFL and FA Cup games out of the way and we are back with EPL. Midweek EPL at that! The slates are hot and heavy this week. Tuesday I’ll have an article out. Wednesday I’ll have an article out. Thursday I’ll have an article and cheat sheet. Friday I’ll have a cheat sheet. Saturday I’ll have a cheat sheet in place of a Sunday Funday article. Of course, these will all be accompanied by a chat room session when possible.
IF I CANNOT MAKE IT, you’ll know ahead of time. Those chat room sessions are very important for late team news and pivots and I really enjoy our conversations to work towards the best possible lineups. With football nearly done and some people getting frustrated with a bad run in basketball, we’ll get some fresh blood in the player pool. Let’s eat!
To the desert…
VEGAS
3:15
-Burnley +650 2.5 (-130o/+110u)
Man Utd -220
Draw +350
-Wolves +145 2 (-125o/+105u)
Everton +215
Draw +210
GAME THOUGHTS
BUR/UTD –
The horses are there up front but the Bailly injury is a worry for United. Their best CB pairing all year has been Maguire and Bailly. Tuanzebe has some of the traits of Bailly but is a touch behind on pace and tenacity.
With Lindelof still doubtful, Tuanzebe will likely pair with Maguire. Maguire’s big ass forehead will come in handy as that is Burnley’s main path to goals – the air.
Barnes is back and rekindling old flames with his mate Chris Wood. Flames – Wood – you get it. It’s Monday. Give me a break 🙂
Robbie Brady and JBG do give them wicked service from the wings but they are still working out how to get both on the field at the same time.
They attempted the system against MK Dons in the FA Cup with pretty tangible success so I wouldn’t be shocked to see them roll that out again IF THEY ARE HAVING A GO. That’s the big IF. Do they play for the point at home or go for the win?
United have generally handled their business away to Burnley. The last three times they’ve played at Burnley they’ve won 2-0, 2-0 and 1-0. DDG clean sheet incoming?
Burnley have only scored two or more goals twice this season and were smashed by Chelsea 3-0 at home. With a healthy front four, I expect United to get the W here.
WOL/EVE –
Wolves got off the schneid with their win over Crystal Palace in Friday’s FA Cup match. It broke a streak of four games without a win and some really poor performances.
They are a completely different team without Raul Jimenez who is still working his way back to fitness. Neto continues to be a revelation and the young buck Fabio Silva is finding his feet in the league.
Daniel Podence has been fantastic and dynamic but he’ll likely miss this one as well. If I had to guess, it will be Traore, Silva and Neto up front.
The transition from the back three to the back four has been interesting. The results are mixed and, frankly, it feels more like tinkering than a way forward for the team.
Coady is required too much laterally, much more in this back four, which is not his strength. We’ll get a good test here with an Everton team that is getting healthy.
Lucas Digne is back. James Rodriguez is back. Richarlison is there. Sigurdsson is probably ready for a rest but will be fit to play from the start. DCL is the one risk as he has a bit of a hamstring issue.
The thing I find extremely interesting is how they’ve tried to manufacture points lately. Surely, it’s down to team fitness and the lack of attacking help but of Everton’s last seven matches, they only had one game eclipse two goals.
For comparison’s sake, seven of their first nine games featured three or more goals. Eventually, I would expect Everton to jump back to their free scoring ways and, believe it or not, it could start here.
The last four times these teams have played they have combined for three, five, four and four goals. The total is currently sitting at two. I do like the over as I think we get to two goals at least. Tosun is a big downgrade from DCL.
SLATE THOUGHTS
This cash build is really tough. As I was trying to put together an early Core 4, I was drawn to Telles/Digne/Neto/Brady, but the rest of the lineup was a bit nonsensical and didn’t have Bruno.
There wasn’t enough money to go around. Essentially, you are going to be punting at multiple positions unless some value opens up. At that point you are going to need to choose wisely on how you spend your money.
Conversely, there were dozens of GPP builds that came together rather easily.
DFS
FORWARDS
- Neto – WOL – $9.8k M/F
He has some serious home/road splits that favor him as a player at home. He’s gone for 18.8, 28.3, 11.2, 18, 22.4, 16.4, 23.8 and 5.7 at home. That’s a little over 18 pts/game. He’s averaging 11.13 pts/game away from home. While his scoring has dipped a touch of late, I project him to bounce back in this match and have him as one of my top options in all formats.
- Rashford – MU – $9.2k M/F
He’s a tough fade. The shot numbers have been off the charts. He has goals in two of his last three. The xG is actually a touch higher. He’s a victim of tired legs but was mostly rested until a late cameo appearance this past weekend meaning he’ll have nearly a week since his last start. He’s lost his role on set pieces but can go direct for goal on a dead ball shot. Multi-goal upside.
- Martial – MU – $8.7k
He combined for nine shots and one goal in his two matches against Burnley last season. United tend to have their way with Burnely and with Cavani back, it might switch Martial back wide to the left which helps his peripheral game and doesn’t kill his goal odds.
- Richarlison – EVE – $8.5k M/F
Assuming no DCL, Richarlison will have even more weight on his attacking shoulders. He could play through the middle as a forward in place of DCL or stay out wide. Either will afford him opportunities to impact the game but his goal odds significantly approve when he plays at F. He’s simply a GPP option that I’ll have shares of if team news breaks our way. If not, I’ll cut my personal ownership in half.
- Rodriguez – EVE – $10.5k M/F
Between the price and him playing 95 minutes this past weekend in the FA Cup I do have some reservations. The low total doesn’t help either. The potential game flow could lead to multiple goals for Everton which James would certainly have a hand in. In short, I’ll consider him mostly for cash for his floor but this price will be tough to justify.
- Wood – BUR – $4.9k
Burnley manhandled United in the away fixture last year and it was Chris Wood doing most of the damage. In theory, Harry Maguire’s big body was brought in to mitigate some of these issues but he’s far from consistent nor dominant in the air. If United were to struggle it’d be on a set piece goal and Wood is the most likely to find that opportunity.
MIDFIELDERS
- Fernandes – MU – $11.8k
If I’m taking one piece from United in cash it will probably be Telles but Bruno is directly behind him. I expect nearly 65% possession from United here and plenty of chances and space for Bruno to create. The issue is at this price we absolutely have to get a goal or assist to sniff value. He’s managed 20 points only once this year without scoring a goal. His quality is immense. His floor is there. His ceiling is there. But my goodness are you paying for it.
- Brady – BUR – $4.4k
Considering most of the options are in the high end at the attacking spots Brady provides a bit of salary relief with a bit of floor and not the price. I will say I do prefer him in this spot without JBG just be sure we grab any left footed set piece opportunities. With Westwood potentially out there is a small chance he has all set pieces as well.
- Doucoure – EVE – $3.7k
He has struggled to compile offensive statistics this season but remember he’s not on Watford any more. He has a new role but his skills have not disappeared. He’s starting to get some crosses in the box and did take 2 shots against West Ham last time out. He can pay off this price.
- Neves – WOL – $6.2k
He’s a little pricey on DK for his output but for FD he’s been absolutely crushing it. I have much more interest over on that site.
- Pieters – BUR – $4.2k
Should actually line up at LB which is both good and bad. He won’t be eligible for the CS bonus should Burnley pull off the bus parking but he’s not afraid to cross from deep and should be facing the United goal all game meaning he’ll be able to see the field and pick out a cross. This is a deeper GPP option to pair with the likes of Wood OR Barnes.
DEFENDERS
- Telles – MU – $6.5k
With Luke Shaw carrying the Q tag the LB role will likely fall to Telles and with it the set pieces as well. Cavani starting at the 9 would be a boost for Telles who loves to whip crosses in from the left. Martial has been fairly good in the air as well so regardless of who starts I have interest. This is also a slight price break from Digne and on the bigger favorite.
- Digne – EVE – $7.3k
My goodness. Ask yourself if you’d rather play James or Digne. What’s your answer? Plug that one in for cash. Are either a must play for GPP? I don’t believe so but Digne does have a higher floor than the M/F in this range and possesses some upside if this match reaches anything near what we’ve seen EVE/WOL matches the last few times out.
- Mina – EVE – $4k
A bit expensive for a relative punt but is certainly dangerous on set pieces and shoudl be able to manhandle either Coady or Saiss. I like this option in GPPs.
- Saiss – WOL – $3.8k
Speaking of Saiss… He’s always in play for me due to his ability on set pieces, him taking the odd direct free kick and of course the potential for the WOL clean sheet.
- Tarkowski – BUR – $2.8k
Not as effective as he was last year on finding shots from set pieces but it’s United. They can make anyone look good.
GOALKEEPERS
2 game slate – play who fits and you aren’t playing against.
- DeGea – MU – $5.8k
I don’t know where you are finding this money but if it’s available lock him in.
- Pope – BUR – $3.8k
This is sink or swim. Last season he went for 0 and 24 against United in their 2 Prem matches.
- Pickford – EVE – $4.6k
Very low likelihood that he ends up with negative points here and there is upside for 10+ points.
- Patricio – WOL – $4.9k
Simply a price issue. Any of the 4 are fine and you’ll need to adjust to your build.
GOOD LUCK!!
