Back with another slate review, hopefully helping you and your process through my success or failures…
Back with another slate review, hopefully helping you and your process through my success or failures (mostly failures recently…more on that later).
First things first, let’s talk through the structure of my articles and recommendations. The article itself is a bit of an amoeba, constantly changing and evolving. I haven’t found one particular style that suits all of our subscribers, and I’m always trying to get better. For those that like the ‘match facts’ style, I try to do that as often as possible. For those who like the game breakdowns, I enjoy doing those as well and hope to incorporate more of that moving forward.
Second, my goal is always to make you all better soccer DFS players. I’m not giving out a lineup and we all live or die by my results. I’m giving options. I’m trying to narrow the player pool. I’m trying to give you guys the tools to make your own decisions and grow as players. Frankly, as you’ll see when we look at my main cash lineup, thank God we aren’t all playing my lineup every week!
Third, I can’t wait to expand our offering to audio and video content. I know you guys like podcasts, and I always liked seeing DC, Jefe, Tommy and Jeff when I was able. Look for that in the future as an ADDED bonus; not in place of anything that’s already offered.
Fourth and most importantly in my opinion…soccer is a grind. Taking breaks here and there isn’t the worst thing. Especially coming out of the Christmas time when it feels like we’ve had 2-3 slates every week for three months straight, it’s not the worst thing in the world to just take a week off. Just enjoy the games or maybe even better, just not worry about soccer. I’m currently in that spot with my game, gearing up for Champions League in two weeks and finishing the season strong. Pick and choose your time, and if you feel like your results haven’t been where you’d like them to be, take a break and reset.
OK, now to Saturday’s slate. We’ll be focusing on the $25 single entry double up tournament. There were 114 entries. The top-50 doubled their money. Everyone else lost. I finished a ridiculously low 100th in the tournament. I felt really bad, but then I saw Pew_pew_pew finished 114 and it took a little of the sting away…not much, but a little. I consider him a sharp player, and we made similar decisions that turned out to be our undoing. My lineup was:
That is BADDDD. It’s never good when a player has -6. Let’s talk through my decisions.
My biggest question was to play Hazard or not. I actually really liked the spot for Andros Townsend, and with the way Hazard has looked in recent games, I made the fatal mistake. So did 32% of people by the way. Only four crosses is his floor. No shots were disappointing. Overall, it was a killer blow.
I did want exposure to the biggest favorite on the board and got there with Willian. This play was fine and, in fact, went for 2x. It was obviously popular at 54% owned but one I thought was a must.
I thought Moutinho was the right play. I expected goals (cash that OVER ticket) and needed a piece of the game. I was pretty fortunate to pick up the assist. Had you told me Moutinho would only have one cross in the game, I would have never played him. The thought process was there. The end result was there. We got fortunate to get there.
James Ward-Prowse was a dumb, heat-check type of play. He’d scored in three straight. He was playing in the Right Wing Back role in the Southampton system that I thought would lead to a 10-15 cross game for JWP. What we ended up getting was an expensive snooze fest. Burnley playing on the front foot was a bit of a surprise, but the bigger point is why was I paying that much for this player…be better Duke.
Bong was actually a great play, but really, I just liked his salary, the matchup and the fact he was playing fullback.
Holebas was tricky. I didn’t originally have him in my lineup but honestly thought I was about 8-10 points away from a guaranteed double up lineup. I was so confident in the floor of the remainder of my lineup that I went with what I thought was the safer play. The truth of the matter is that Holebas has been incredibly disappointing since the first month of the season. He’s had the odd good game, but more often than not, his pricing has far outweighed his performance.
Seri was again a very safe play, I thought. I expected to get 6-8 points and move on with my life. Only three crosses were just shy of my projection, and he picked up a couple tackles and an interception. He was right in the range I was hoping.
Lossl was a debacle. It was pretty popular with the better players who didn’t play Hazard to go Lossl. Looking back on it, it was almost too “all in” on the Hazard fade. In order for Lossl to do well, we needed Hazard to suck. While it makes sense in GPP to correlate specific plays and positions, for cash, this was a bum play. The result was obviously trash, but the process is more what I’m worried about when making lineups.
Let’s look at who was highly owned and who scored the most:
|Jean Michael Seri||M||58.77%||5.75|
50% Hazard going bonkers with a 30 spot was death. Avoiding Baines in cash was crucial, but even that couldn’t save me. A lot of my roster fell in this range.
In this range, I would consider Hazard, maybe Bobby Reid (salary), Milivojevic (kind of – too expensive) and Willian to be cash plays. Everyone else is just a dart and a prayer. Let’s talk specifically about Higuain because he picked up 17% ownership.
I was very against the play personally. Obviously, his two goals make me look like a fool, but let’s talk about the good and bad of the play and I’ll get you out of here.
Why do you play Higuain in cash?
- Chelsea were -555 favorites, -600 on some books.
- Higuain was up there with Eden Hazard with the highest goal scoring odds on the slate.
- He was relatively inexpensive at $7k, compared to other players.
Why not play Higuain in cash?
- Everything else.
- He’d played two games with Chelsea and not registered a single point!
- He isn’t a player who is going to bang in a goal from 30, yet, tends to hang around the edge of the box (Of COURSE, he scores a banger from 25 out).
- Chelsea have been horrible and uninterested.
- The manager has said he was out of shape and likely wouldn’t play 90 minutes.
- I didn’t see the game getting completely out of control and preferred Hazard/Willian.
Part of taking a break is looking at process and results. I’m getting far too conservative with all of my builds, not just cash. Set pieces are great. Floor players are great, and a staple for cash. We can’t ignore goals completely, especially from big favorites.
Back this Thursday with the usual Back of the Net slate preview. See you then chaps!