Duke’s EPL DFS Preview for Sunday…
WE ARE BACK. It’s such a tease all week. We wait and wait and wait for these games to arrive all week and then it’s thick and fast Saturday through Monday. The PM of Britain has extended the length of matches without fans due to Covid concerns so we are stuck with these split slates.
I’ll be honest, I hate it. It does give us a slight edge in that we can pivot late when most people move on with their day but it’s such a pain in the ass to build a roster with 33% of the information we need. What I’ve moved to is picking games, not as much players to target. We will see some rotation here early so it’s really tough to simply pick a build and move forward, especially with position designations.
For example on Saturday I wanted to attack West Brom with Chelsea. They were by far the biggest favorites on the board with a big total. I basically just had to bank cash for that match which got me off of a few players that I didn’t mind in the Everton/Palace game. These are the decisions we’ll have to make moving forward.
Let’s see how Sunday turns out. To the desert..
- Tottenham -220 | 2.5,3 (-105o/-115u)
- Newcastle Utd +575
- DRAW +350
- Man City -335 | 3,3.5 (-115o/-105u)
- Leicester City +800
- DRAW +475
Spurs are big favorites here and for good reason. Each of these teams have played 1 good and 1 poor game. The biggest thing for Spurs is getting Son and Kane off the mark against Southampton. Regardless of who Jose brings into the team, these 2 will determine how high up the table they go.
Newcastle immediately follow up a great 2-0 away win to West Ham with a poor 0-3 loss at home to Brighton. Granted, we just saw Brighton out play Man United so perhaps I’ve underrated Brighton this season. We are only a few games into the season and from what I’ve seen, the gap between the bottom and the top is small. Overreacting to early results is costly.
Spurs win this game but closer than the experts think.
7 goals through 2 games for Leicester. Vardy bagged a brace in game 1 but missed the mark in game 2. While Leicester have won their first 2, it’s important to temper expectations in this game. City have won this match 3 straight games but 2 of those were 1-0 victories, one of which was at home.
City should absolutely win this match but one thing to keep an eye on is this change in formation from Pep. They’ve moved from 1 pivot CDM to 2. How this will impact DK scores is tbd but what he’s trying to do is secure the defensive side of the ball while still retaining a ton of possession.
KDB, Foden and Jesus picked up goals in their first match but it looks like Jesus will spend some time on the sideline with an injury. This is a City win but the total is too high.
We have 2 big favorites, both at home. I rank the teams as follows: City > Spurs > Leicester > Newcastle.
For Cash –
I’m not reinventing the wheel. I’ll list the core 4 just below but my guess is Sterling plays through the middle. That helps his goal scoring and hurts his peripherals. KDB is going to eat but Mahrez likely makes his way into the side. You are getting James Maddison at a steep discount but he stunk up the joint against City in both games last season. The build isn’t obvious and you’ll have to take some stands.
For GPP –
Generally on a short 2 game slate I’d say load up on City or load up on Spurs or hell, load up on Newcastle. In this situation where I have between 4-7 goals being scored between the 2 games, we’ll need to capture quite a bit of that to make a dent.
Sterling, Mahrez, Foden + Wilson, Almiron, Manquilo, Darlow
Kane, Doherty + Vardy, Maddison, Schmeichel
Mahrez, Foden + Wilson, Shelvey + Justin, Vardy
GOAL SCORING ODDS
Mahrez – MCI – $8.2k
You can take the upside of Sterling, and I’ll certainly have quite a bit, but in cash I’d prefer wide players in this City attack. He does have a slight share of set pieces but that duty will largely fall to KDB. He’s right there with KDB for goal scoring odds and in front of Son. Let’s wait for team news to confirm he’s in but he’s my #1 option at F.
Kane – TOT – $9.7k
I hate rostering Kane and likely won’t in cash but for the money, he’s the best finisher on the slate. Especially in this Spurs system he doesn’t touch the ball a ton but he can be extremely effective when he does. He and Son are in sync and that’s how I’d attack DFS with a Spurs stack.
Delap – MCI – $4.6k
It would be a big call for Pep to give him the start but B Silva isn’t quite match fit and Jesus is likely out. There are few options in the attack. He also scored midweek in their Carabao Cup match. He has better goal scoring odds than Jamie Vardy, which is insane and largely down the matchup. For the $, he’s in consideration if he starts.
SON – TOT – $10.3k
If he and Mahrez flipped prices I’d be 100% all in on Son. He’s the best Forward on the slate in terms of overall ability. Obviously he went off last game which has jacked his price up. He’s not a total fade, and I do have Spurs winning this match, but in GPP I’ll likely be looking elsewhere considering it comes down to Son or KDB.
Almiron – NEW – $5.3k
I prefer Almiron to Wilson in cash for this F position and Miggy is priced just right. I do think there is slight value in his pricing considering Spurs aren’t a massively possession based team and Newcastle will attack. If no Delap, Miggy is your VALUE option at F.
Other- Obviously Sterling is great. Vardy is always in play with GPP. One of Bergwijn/Moura will start and I like to pair them with Kane for some $ savings.
De Bruyne – MCI – $11.5k
THIS IS TOO MUCH!! Is it? He scored a goal and bagged an assist will taking 6 cordners and putting in 5 crosses with 4 shots on goal against WOLVES. In this fixture last season KDB scored 25.4 pts with 4 crosses, 1 assist, 4 shots, 1 SOG and 7 shots assisted. City won 3-1. I can see a similar scoreline and while 25.4 is barely over 2x, how many other players are going to score 25 on this slate? Find a way to make it work. I almost talked myself out of KDB last week and I’m VERY glad I didn’t.
Lo Celso – TOT – $5.4k
This is simply too cheap for his position, team and upside. He came on for the final 45 minutes against Southampton but struggled to get into the game. I like him more as a starter obviously and this, like Bergwijn or Moura, is a cheap pairing with either Kane or Son.
Foden – MCI – $7.7k
I asked the question last week and Phil Foden answered. The kid is special. He took his goal really well but was involved throughout. The tough part about that role in this system is the fact that they don’t cross a lot. A lot of the play around the box is intricate 1-2s and slotted balls in behind. He needs a goal or assist and he gets one here.
Shelvey – NEW – $5.6k
We need some value in spots and Shelvey has a good floor for the money in cash. He’s not as exciting in GPPs but as part of a NEW stack with a CB is interesting. Floor not upside here.
Ndombele – TOT – $3.9k
I’m going list him until Jose wakes up and plays him from the start. At that point he’ll shoot up the list. Just a reminder that he’s still on Spurs and likely their best attacking or box-to-box midfielder.
Castagne – LEI – $3.9k
This is simply too cheap even considering that it’s City they are playing. He’s shown his quality early this season and will end up on my roster quite a bit. Plug and play.
Justin – LEI – $4.3k
Both Leicester fullbacks could be in play here! I’ll likely split them up but in GPP I’ll have both with Schmeichel on a few teams. The price is so ripe. He’s hit double digits in both games and went off for 22.2 last game. I’ll take half that and walk away happy.
Manquilo – NEW – $3.3k
With so many spend up options at F and M it’s hard to do so at D. Enter a $3.3k fullback.
Doherty – TOT – $4.6k
I was wrong about Doherty. I thought, and still think, that Aurier is the better RB and that Jose would still lean that direction. Doherty has played 90 and over 70 minutes in his two appearances and is yet to make an impact but has an opportunity here to burst forward should he choose.
Schmeichel – LEI – $3.7k
You can play up to 2 players against Schmeichel here. In their 2 matches last season, Schmeichel had to make 6 and 9 saves. He conceded in each game and still came away with 12 and 13 point performances. He’s my #1 this week.
Lloris – TOT – $5.7k
Bonkers price but Newcastle could struggle to score here.
Ederson – MCI – $5.9k
Leicester are more game than Newcastle.
Darlow – $4k
- West Ham +255 2,2.5 (-115o/-105u)
- Wolves +105
- DRAW +240
West Ham are my new Bournemouth. They likely just flat out stink at soccer but I always give them too much credit. They were tied 1-1 with Arsenal late in their last match before Nketiah buried them in the 85th minute. It doesn’t get any easier here with Wolves coming to town. I say my new Bournemouth because over the past couple of years Bournemouth would raise u and win a game they had absolutely no business winning. Is this the spot for West Ham to do it?
Nope. Wolves are too good but I do have both teams scoring here. I don’t like Traore in this wing back role but Wolves have created chances. Jiminez has a goal in each of his first 2 matches and it will be important to feed the big Mexican again. Wolves have won the last 3 head to head matchups by at least 2 goals and with a clean sheet. I see a similar outcome here.