Duke’s EPL DFS Preview for Sunday morning’s two-match slate…
I can’t wait to be slightly hungover and wake up with a fat bankroll, ready to tackle my Sunday. How about you? It’s going to be an early one. 9am kickoff means an 8am session in the chat room. BE READY TO COMMIT TO THAT before you reserve your entries.
This is an interesting situation where the early match features a team that is really struggling this season to continue the success they had last year. Sheffield are in real danger of being relegated if they don’t find their form. The afternoon game should be fireworks.
I’ll say this….pricing sucks. The majority of players I look at on this slate have questions as to how they will pay off their price. Ignore that and understand the goal. We need to find players who will score enough to beat other people playing this game.
Let’s head to the desert…
- Sheffield Utd +195 | 2.5 (+115o/-145)
- West Ham +150
- DRAW +225
- Leeds Utd +220 3 (+105o/-130u)
- Arsenal +115
- DRAW +270
What are West Ham? Are they good? Great? Bad? Average? I think we need to start there. Their form board looks like a rainbow. Win some and lose some. Draw against City and Spurs, beat the pants off Wolves and Leicester and then lose to Fulham. WUT?! I have West Ham having played the TOUGHEST schedule in the Prem this far. I do think they are a good to very good team.
The book is out on Sheffield. Their system is the same. The players are the same. The results are very different. They couldn’t score last year but defensively they were unbelievable. I refuse to believe the main difference is at GK. Dean Henderson was great last year. Ramsdale is not someone I really love but he’s not so bad that they are going from potential top 6 to sure relegation because of that change. The issue is somewhere deeper.
I don’t see this as the spot for Sheffield to get things turned around. I like West Ham to win this match.
This is startling….
This is the issue I have with Arteta. I believe he is one of the best “in-game” managers in the game. His ability to read the game and make adjustments is second to none. The issue with that is against good teams, you are often too far behind for those “changes” to change a game. The damage is done. That could easily be the case against this Leeds team.
Are they top tier? No. However, tactically they are as sharp as any team in the league and they have no problem attacking against top teams. Arsenal need to start playing like they are one of the big boys. IF they come out and play, this could be a fun game that sails over the 3 total.
The issue with Leeds is their home form. Away? Sure, they’ll have a go and throw caution to the wind. You look to the 4-3 loss at Liverpool, the 3-0 win at Villa and the 4-1 loss to Palace and understand what they were trying to do. At home, against top teams, it’s been more conservative. 0-1 loss to Wolves. 1-1 draw to City. It’s as if Bielsa starts to feel the pressure in their home matches.
Ultimately I do think this game will have more goals but it’s closer than you’d think.
Aubameyang – ARS – $9.3k
Considering our other options, this seems cheap. He’s off to a typically slow start but we know his upside. We can expect similar production to his match against West Ham with 5 crosses, 1 shots, 3 shots assisted and an assist. I wouldn’t be shocked if the shots and shots assisted were flipped and the assist turned into a goal.
Haller – WH – $5.9k
This might be the Spotted Cow talking but LOVE Haller. Obviously this is assuming he starts over Antonio who is coming back from injury but simply considering game flow and the way WH will score, a big target forward is exactly what we need here. He managed 3 shots last time out and I like his odds to bag a goal vs his DK price.
Bamford – LEE – $9.6k
Preposterous price but certainly can score here. He really struggled against Wolves and City. Those games have me very very very hesitant to pay this price. I’ll have shares in GPP only and on maybe 1 of 3 lineups.
Saka – ARS – $8.5k
He might not even start and I don’t want to pay this much for this player but he’s one of the safer plays on the slate.
Klich – LEE – $7.2k
Open play value with set piece equity (assuming no Phillips) is the play here. His 3 assists in 8 games are a bonus and there is a viable game flow that sees this game shootout. At that point, Klick will seem cheap. He’s eclipsed 15 points four times already this season.
Fornals – WH – $5k
While I’m tempted to go Bowen, I’ll take the cheaper piece of the attacking trident. The floor is low but he’s finally starting to turn his ability on the field into goal impact. He’s averaging 2 shots per game over his last 6 games. That’s production I have interest in.
Norwood – SHU – $4.3k
There isn’t a ton to love from this Sheffield team so I’ll take the guy taking all of the set pieces for the home slight dog here. The upside is just sooooo low. He has 0 shots in his 5 games.
Harrison – LEE – $8.9k
This price is ridiculous but considering the slate I might actually pay this. He’s over double digit points in every game but 2 this season. He typically plays 90 minutes. He’s on the left side of the attack that is opposite Bellerin who isn’t much of a defender.
Soucek – WH – $5.4k
His shots are built into his price now and this is getting a touch expensive considering his floor but I’ll have shares every single time he plays.
Costa – LEE – $6.3k
Low floor but decent upside for under $7k and part of a LEEDS stack.
Cresswell – WH – $5.8k
He’s taken over the majority set piece role which is huge for his value and his position. With Sheffield’s defensive set up, he could match his 11 crosses from last match. Cash and GPP.
Tierney – ARS – $5.2k
This might be Saka in this spot but assuming he starts at LWB/LM I’ll have interest at this price. 5, 5 and 4 crosses in his last 3 provides a bit of a base we need in cash.
Coufal – WH – $5.4k
Damn this is too expensive but I’ve put together a build with him and Cresswell plus Haller that I don’t hate.
Ayling – LEE – $5.5k
Solid but unspectacular player. Crossing numbers all over the map.