Duke’s EPL DFS Preview for Sunday…
Saturday was insane. Players who had no chance of playing not only played, but started. Crazy results. Newcastle goes up early but then loses to United by a million. City goes up early against Arsenal and Arsenal seems to turtle and just accept the result. Chelsea starts Kepa and…exactly what we expected happens.
Let’s see how Sunday treats us. To the desert….
- Crystal Palace +170 | 2,2.5 (-110o/-110u)
- Brighton +165
- DRAW +225
- Tottenham -170 3 (+105o/-125u)
- West Ham +450
- DRAW +325
A bottom half of the table battle here. The crazy part is this is where Palace typically do their business, against the bottom half. Outside of a Newcastle dominant victory, the defense of Brighton really has to be called into question. Conceding 3 against Man United. 3 against Chelsea. 4 against Eveton. Granted, those are three pretty damn good teams but they are losses in which they had absolutely no chance. Does Palace have that explosive offense? Nahhhhhhhh
Palace needs to win points at home. This is a chance for Batshuayi and Zaha to make an impact up front. If they can get the front 4 of Zaha/Bats/Eze/Townsend going, they can still stick with the manager’s relatively defensive style and have success.
This is one of those matches that doesn’t seem like it’d have goals but could finish 3-2.
I really hate what Spurs are putting together. In a battle of London, I expect Tottenham to come out on top. Bale looks set for a return, as if this attack needed any further help. Reguilion slides right in at LB and Hjobjberg is adding the necessary bite in the midfield. This will be a fun match.
West Ham in their own right have won their last 2 matches, against Wolves and Leicester no less, by a combined score of 7-0. They’ll be looking to make life difficult for Spurs here but as a very live dog. I don’t really know what to make of the current West Ham. Late last year they were explosive. Early this year they started very slow and then they looked unstoppable. THEN they have the international break to stop that momentum. We’ll learn a lot about the psyche of this team here.
Jose’s boys get it done in a game where both teams score.
Son – TOT – $10.7k
How do you fade this spot? This game could absolutely shoot out but with the Vegas total and the quality here, I’m projecting more goals in this match than the first. Son’s value on set pieces along with his open play value and this high flying attack makes him super attractive. There is one question mark…
Bale – TOT – $9.6k
Hi. I’m the question mark. If Bale starts he’ll have a role on set pieces and is over $1k less than Son. Will he play 90? Not sure and I’d lean no but while more quality in the front 3 helps all of their upside, it does hurt the distribution of stats. 1 or the other. Likely not both.
Townsend – CP – $8.6k
Crazy price, right? Townsend is finally on set pieces to add to this open play value. His GPP viability is largely down to Zaha starting this match. If he does, I could absolutely see a game flow where this shoots out at which point Townsend will seem cheap. On the other hand, considering the options available in the other match, you question the upside here in a 1-0 or 0-0 type of game. Cash for sure. GPP? We’ll see.
Maupay – BHA – $9.2k
I guess we are just doing this? Neal Maupay has been in sparkling form with 4 goals from his last 3 and 11 shots in his last 3 matches. He’s not just a poacher. He has crosses, fouls draw, tackles won! Etc… I can’t even get close to touching this in cash but I like this option in a contrarian GPP spot.
Batshuayi – CP – $5.5k
LOVE this play in GPP. I really like it with Zaha but if Zaha doesn’t start, he’s still cheap enough to take a chance as the lone big body in the box. Hodgson either doesn’t trust him or is easing him into the side but with his loan spells at Palace it has me wondering what’s shaking here. GPP i’ll have my shares.
Antonio – WH- $9.3k
He’ll be a monster on the counter attack which is how Spurs can be had. This price is just so bonkers with the other options available but he has multi-goal upside.
Kane – TOT – $11.6k
You can’t pay this price for a goal dependent forward. GPP only but I’m mostly passing.
Bowen – WH – $9k
The highest upside of all midfielders. Cresswell is cutting into his floor a touch with set piece equity but Bowen has shifted his game for more shots, shots assisted and goals. The impact he can make when freed up from the defensive side of the game is staggering. I love him on the counter here against a game Spurs team.
March – BHA – $7.3k
This set piece situation is a nightmare but with Gross potentially missing the first 11, i have more interest in March at this price. We will likely find a game flow that produces 1-2 shots with 4-6 crosses. Is that enough to justify this price? In cash I’ll take it.
Ndombele – TOT – $4.3k
Really showed his potential in the match against United and I expect Mourinho to reward him with another start. I’m going to play him until he’s $7k or $8k. He has upside. This price is insane.
Soucek – WH – $4.6k
Spurs are a mess with the big bodies and Soucek will have an advantage on set pieces. I’ll have more than the field — maybe 2-3x in GPP. 12 shots in his last 4, most of which are from the air.
Bissouma – BHA – $4.5k
2 shots in each of his 3 matches at under $5k? Sure. They aren’t great shots and only one was on goal but it was a bomb and also a goal. Upside here. Not a cash play.
Lallana – BHA – $3.5k
Let’s see where he lines up. If he’s more advanced, this price is far too low but regardless, he’s not someone you just shove in your lineup even at this low price. He’s in consideration for all formats depending on his starting position. GPP regardless.
Veltman – BHA – $3k
Lock him in. All formats.
Aurier – TOT – $5.7k
We know the upside is there but is the floor? The stats are slightly misleading as the attack against United was mostly down the left side. He has more GOAL upside than Reguilon but both are absolutely viable in all formats. Assuming Veltman starts, we can afford either.
Cresswell – WH – $5.4k
10 shots assisted in his last 3. 21 crosses in his last 4. The floor stats are there and I prefer Cresswell to Aurier in cash. Flip that for GPP.
Reguilon – TOT – $5.3k
We are so limited in options that we might need to play multiple high priced D. More than likely, I’m grabbing value from the first match and Cresswell in cash. Value from the first match and Auerier in GPP for my single entry contests. If you get here, he’s completely fine.
Kouyate – CP – $3.3k
Considering how shitty the fullback for Palace have been, you might as well go Kouyate here and hope to spike a set piece header goal or something. He has 3 shots in 4 games with a goal.