Another day, another set of hits and misses. I don’t know why people weren’t on Djenepo. I’ll have to look into that more. But for $3.6k and getting nearly 20 pts I would say that was a pretty decent call to include in the Core 4. The rest of the group performed OK, but, as usual, it tended to come down to GK. The late Mason Mount goal hurt my chances in cash even.
In GPP? Tammy Abraham’s form continued to the tune of three goals. Maupay got a goal. Rashford got a goal. Unfortunately, Kane did not. It’s funny how this works, and we should always be evaluating our process and decision making, but Djenepo starting opened up enough salary for me to get off Gross/McNeil and go Kane/McNeil. Gross finishes with like 15 pts, Kane 10.86. That then changed a bit of the rest of my lineup.
Look, I’m not saying I would have won everything, or anything, had I not pivoted, but understanding the why and then looking at the results is how we improve as DFS players.
Now for some Sunday Funday action.
To the desert….
-BOU +195 2.5 (-140o/+115u)
-WAT +260 3 (-115o/-105u)
This is an interesting matchup between two teams who feel like they can have the upper hand on each other. From purely a talent point of view, I’ll take Everton 10/10 times. I’m still not quite sure what to think of the Bournemouth manager, Eddie Howe. You’d think after five years of watching his teams, I’d have a feel, but here we are. I’m still guessing every single week on what team he’s going to put out and how they are going to perform. I don’t like guessing with my money.
Are Everton finding their form? They are starting to implement the new blood more and the more they play with each other the better they’ll be. They are away favorites which always makes me slightly nervous but they are definitely the better team.
WTF have Watford been doing? They finally made the managerial change and you’d think it’d have an instant impact on their performance. In the departed Javi Garcia’s place is Quique Sanchez Flores. This is his second spell at Watford and, for those who forget, he was relatively successful in his first brief stay. The 4-2-2-2 will be abandoned and there is always a slight bump for a new manager so from a betting perspective, I’m cautiously liking Arsenal. Based on form and talent they should be -200 favorites. At EVEN money, VEGAS is having the same reservations as I am. However, there should be goals in this game.
Lacazette is facing an extended absence from the team which is a shame. In his place, Aubameyang will reclaim the F position and Ceballos/Willock/Ozil will combine with him. Pepe will be pushed into prominence even more and the attacking front three will be looking for goals from new places. How does this shake out? It sucks this is the afternoon game because we won’t know team news ahead of time. With only a two game slate, that’s a lot of information to be left in the air.
HOW TO PLAY IT
I do think there will be goals in the second game. A total of three with juice on the over is usually a place I want to attack. We know a few of the pieces that will be starting but not all. I will likely go LIGHT on the two-game slate and then hammer the SD later morning slate.
- Aubameyang – ARS – $10.2k
Best goal scoring odds on the slate and for good reason. His peripherals will take a touch of a hit playing through the middle but goal scoring odds are up. I like the floor and upside.
- King – BOU – $5.5k
On penalty duty and should be up front with Wilson. This is a bit of a price play. I like Wilson to score more but for the extra change the difference is slim.
- Pepe – ARS – $9.2k
I’m not all in on Arsenal or anything but as for upside, they are hard to ignore. This kid is a player. Very good 1 v 1. If he ever picks his head up, he’ll have 15 assists a season.
- Richarlison – EVE – $10k
WHEW, that is expensive. Going to have to have a goal to justify this price. I’m fading.
- Sarr – WAT – $5.4k
Will they just fucking play this kid! He’s done well in limited minutes but still adjusting to the league. With a new manager, we aren’t quite sure what way he’ll go with team news, but if it were me, this man would be on the team sheet.
- Iwobi – EVE – $7.6k
Found his goal scoring feet last time out against Wolves but let’s pump the brakes here a touch. My big problem with Iwobi is he’s a bit of a tweener. He’s not a big crosser and doesn’t score a ton of goals. Decent play, though.
- Wilson – BOU – $6.7k
This is about $2k too cheap on a short slate. Just lock and load.
- Ceballos – ARS – $7.8k
I’ve admittedly taken a step back on my Ceballos boner, but he’s such a good player. Arsenal should be on the front foot and ESPECIALLY if Xhaka gets the bench.
- Sigurdsson – EVE – $9k
He’ll be popular in cash, and I get the play, but I’m higher on others. He’s at least splitting carries but I’m spending up for Digne, not Siggy.
- Cleverly – WAT – $4.1k
Assuming he gets the start, he’s been on set pieces without Holebas. We have to wait for team news…
- Billing – BOU – $4.2k
Interested to see if he gets a start. He can hit them from deep. Perhaps the best goal upside in this range at this position. Not great though…
- Digne – EVE – $6.8k
You wanna talk about spending up….dangggggg. But he’s so freaking solid. Should get 2x easily.
- Coleman – EVE $4.8k
I’d say this is expensive but on a short slate, gucci. Upside isn’t great.
- Holebas – WAT – $5.4k
Assuming he starts, Cleverly loses some value. A cash build starting with Digne and Holebas is committing a lot of salary to your build but a solid start.
- Rico – BOU – $5k
If they play with the wing backs and Rico lines up he’s just behind Holebas and Digne. Right there with Coleman.
- Ake – $3.4k
Paying down? Best of the bunch.
- Leno – ARS
- Pickford – EVE
- Foster – WAT
- Ramsdale – BOU