Duke’s EPL DFS Preview for Saturday’s three-match slate…
I don’t want to get all mushy here so just know that I love you guys. This community of ours is growing, which is great. I appreciate everyone who’s been with me from the start and of course I appreciate the new faces as well.
The good news here is that the hangover from Thursday should be gone by Saturday morning. No excuses. Play like a champion.
To the desert…
- Man City -575 | 3.5 (+110o/-140u)
- Burnley +1400
- DRAW +650
- Everton -105 | 3 (-105o/-125u)
- Leeds United +270
- Draw +280
- West Brom +160 | 2 (-145o/+110u)
- Sheffield Utd +185
- Draw +220
These teams are relatively healthy but on opposite ends of the spectrum from a talent perspective, but you knew that. Aguero is working his way back to fitness but I would still expect Jesus to start. You see the odds and the total. Of course we’ll look here for as much exposure as we can reasonably afford.
Traditionally this is an ass tapping. City have won the last 2 home matches against Burnley 5-0 and 5-0. For whatever reason, this City team seems to lack that killer instinct but 2-3 goals is reasonable.
In the Arsenal/Leeds breakdown I mentioned how conservative Arsenal play away from home under Arteta. I was worried about the game being low scoring. I did not think it would finish 0-0. Leeds have turned into a jekyll and hyde type of team for me. I literally don’t know what to expect from them. We do know that typically when they are away from home they play extremely aggressively. I haven’t heard Bielsa actually say this but knowing how into analytics he is, he understands the value of away wins vs. draws/losses and tells the boys to have a go. It’s led to games with 7, 3 and 5 goals thus far. They also beat Sheffield 1-0 for the sake of accuracy but the point remains…we can look here to differentiate ourselves from the City stackers.
Digne will be sidelined and he’s a big miss but they have others who can slot into that spot and still produce. If they stick with the new 3-4-3 formation, this game could be absolute fireworks.
The redheaded step-child of the slate. With a total of 2 and a combined like…4 good players, I’m not sure how we can get creative here to find an edge. Surely GKs from this match will be popular. These teams are familiar with each other from their time in the second division of English football. It was a back and forth matchup with the home team losing each match in the 2018 season. In total, there were 4 goals scored in those matches and the WBA home fixture was a 1-0 away win for Sheffield.
Mahrez – MCI – $7.8k
Mahrez loves scoring against Burnley. He scored 2 in the 5-0 drubbing of Burnley. He came off the bench to bag another in their 4-1 win. Obviously he has some set piece equity, even with KDB on the field. You will see a lot of Man City in this article.
Sterling – MCI – $7.1k
Huh? I fully understand he hasn’t scored in 4 games but it’s Raheem Sterling. I’ll play him as a -500 favorite at $7k all day. As a reminder, he was $9.3k against Arsenal on October 17th. Now against Burnley we get a $2k discount.
Bamford – LEE – $8.1k
He’s scored in every single away match this season. If it weren’t for the egregious pricing on City players, he’d be at the top of this list. DCL has a higher ceiling but I oddly trust Bamford to hit value more often in this spot. He’s +162 to score, which I like.
Calvert-Lewin – EVE – $10k
I don’t know that I can afford this. He’s only eclipsed what would be 2x at this price once without scoring 2 or more goals.
Jesus – MCI – $8.6k
Goals have come from the forward position in this fixture but with Aguero more than likely to come on at some point, I’ll place my preference elsewhere for this price. IF Aguero starts, move him to the top of the list at his price.
Rodriguez – EVE – $9.3k
This isn’t for the faint of heart but I’d rather grab Richarlsion/DCL against Leeds. With Leed’s defensive set up, they are more likely to be undone by pace than guile. Could Rodriguez have 2 assists? For sure. If he does I’ll eat it and hope my other guys have outperformed him.
De Bruyne – MCI – $10.2k
I’m simply plugging him in for cash. Let’s not overthink it. For GPP I COULD make the case that we can fade him in spots. The City attackers are cheap enough that we can stack all 3, regardless of who starts, and try to capture goals and assists from them and hope for a floor game from KDB. Last season he subbed on for one game against Burnley and only scored 14 points in 80 minutes in the other. Remember, City generally only throw crosses in the box when they are behind. Otherwise it’s a stylish build up.
Iwobi – EVE – $3.4k
Our second…what…of the day. YEAH YOU SEE IT. I love Iwobi at this price. His new little RWB role showcased his ability to its fullest extent. This will sound odd but he’s not a player who does well with his back to goal. Essentially, when he’s playing further forward he has to receive a pass from the midfield and then turn a defender with the ball to create space. At this new role, typically everything is in front of him and he can process information quickly to make better decisions. That’s a long way to say I hated Iwobi at LW and I love him at RWB. Just play him.
Klich – LEE – $6.7k
I was off Klich against Arsenal and I won that battle as he barely cracked 1x. I’m ready to unleash him here in this spot. This should be an open game which greatly benefits his game and his DFS ability.
Torres – MCI – $5.8k
He scored a goal against Burnley in the Carabao Cup this year already. This is simply a price play with upside should he start but I don’t think he will. I would build dummy lineups without him and we can pivot should he start since it’s the first game. Regardless of who plays the RW/LW positions, they should be at least $8k here.
Pereira – WBA – $6.9k
In these close games, difference makers tend to…wait for it…make the difference. This total is so low that I honestly don’t want any attackers from this game but he has the ability to unlock a defense and create or score the winner.
Phillips – LEE – $6.4k
Set piece equity and a defensive ball hawk. I really prefer to play him the $5k range but it’s within the distribution range for him to hit 2x enough to consider him for cash. Not so much for GPP.
Gundogan – MCI – $3.8k
If Fernandinho steps into the midfield, he’ll do the clean up duty and allow Gundo to attack more. If that’s the case, there is value for the $ here.
Berge – SHE – $3.8k
I like the upside of Gundo more but Sander is always a staple in my GPP pool.
Alioski – LEE – $4.7k
We are banking on a game similar to the one he had against Villa with a nice mix of shots, crosses and shots assisted. At least 1 shot in each of his last 5 matches.
Lowe – SHE – $3.8k
He’s made the LWB role his own and has produced of late. The price and matchup is ripe for a 2-3x day. Value for the $.
Kenny-EVE – $3.4k
Does he shift over to the LWB role with Iwobi playing on the right? Defender sucks on this slate so we’ll be looking for value Saturday morning. Kenny has some upside in this system at this price.
Baldock – SHE – $5.1k
The crossing numbers are down, which is surprising. At some point they need to turn this around and against a new promoted team should be a good place to start.
Tarkowski – BUR – $2.9k
It’s good to see the big man back in a Burnley jersey. He’s back on his game with 6 shots in 6 games. He’s my super cheap guy to potentially bag a goal.
Ederson – MCI – $5.9k
I’ve actually created several viable builds from this article that allowed me to use Ederson. With D being a bit of a shitty position, I’d rather take the relative safety of 12-14 pts here for the price than pay up.
Johnstone – WBA – $4.8k
I think Sheffield are the better team but Johnstone is the better goalie by a wide margin. 38 saves in 9 games is eye popping stuff.
Peacock-Farrell – BUR – $3.5k
I don’t believe Pope is going to be fit for the game and they went to BPF last year in these situations. City CAN put 9 past you but this year they can lack a little bite in the attack so perhaps we can take a stab here. I’m likely paying up but I like him more than Meslier who is dead to me after his 4 goals conceded for -1.6 output against Palace.