Today’s breakdown is for the two (2) game CS:GO slate that is centered on the two DreamHack Masters Best of 5 finals matches. Keep in mind, roster lock is going to be 8:50 AM ET/5:50 AM PT.
Please be sure to look back at my past articles to go through more about my research process.
Keep in mind, one of the best things about e-Sports is the fact that you can watch ALL of the games in real time by going to Twitch. For instance, today’s slate is going to be streamed throughout the day by going to http://twitch.tv/dreamhackcs/. I have come to absolutely LOVE watching CS:GO because of all of the strategy that is involved, and if you guys take some time to watch these games and potentially follow the live scoring on hltv.org, you’re going to be a better player as well!
Today’s two game slate is going to be a little unorthodox as it is a BEST OF 5 instead of a BEST OF 3. These two matches are going to determine the winner of the European region of DreamHack Masters as well as the North American region of DreamHack Masters. But to further complicate things, the games are going to feature matchups between the winner of the “winners bracket” and “losers bracket” for each region. The team in the winners bracket will start the BEST OF 5 with an immediate 1-0 map win advantage. This means that both G2 and FURIA have a natural advantage over BIG and Team Liquid.
NOW, something to consider that I would guess that 90% of everyone entering contests who isn’t reading this article doesn’t know is that under normal circumstances in a BEST OF 3 format, any team can be eligible for a 5 point map sweep bonus if they win back-to-back matches to win 2-0; however, according to my communication with DraftKings support, the only teams that will be eligible for the match sweep bonus are G2 and FURIA because they are the only two teams that can possibly go 3-0 today.
Does that change my approach? Well, when I breakdown these games and likely map choices, I actually think it’s a bit unlikely that either G2 or FURIA will win each of their first two maps. These matchups are going to be very competitive. I do think G2 and FURIA are better teams than their counterparts, but I think BIG and TL are too talented to walk away without a map win. So to answer the original question, yes, it does change my approach. I do probably have the slightest bit more exposure to G2 or FURIA than I would have if they didn’t have the extra edge, but I am definitely not ignoring BIG and TL.
This also means that I am very likely to build 3-2-1 lineups rather than 3-3. I don’t think it’s a terrible idea to go 3-3 today, but the odds that the 3-3 lineups become the optimal lineups today are unlikely because it is highly dependent on both winners bracket teams winning 2 games in a row, or both losers bracket teams winning 3 games in a row, which I’d say is close to the equivalent of hitting a two-outer on the river in Texas Holdem.
G2 (-345) vs. BIG
Likely Bans: Overpass and Train
Map Guesses: Mirage and Inferno (Map 3 and 4; Dust2 and Nuke)
These two teams faced each other earlier in the week in a very competitive matchup where both teams won in convincing fashion on the other team’s map choices. My guess is that both of those map choices are going to end up being the 3rd and 4th maps, which means they’ll only be played if necessary. Mirage is a map that both G2 and BIG love to play on, but it’s also a map that G2 has played very confidently on over the past couple weeks. I really think BIG is going to pick Inferno since Nuke was an absolute disaster in their last meeting with G2, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they pick Dust2, either.
G2 is a -345 favorite for a reason. Obviously the 1-0 map advantage is HUGE, because I do not think they’d ordinarily be anywhere close to a -345 favorite today. BIG should keep this one competitive and they should be able to win one of the first two maps (I’d say there’s like a 80% chance of this). Can they win 3 of 4 though? That’s where it gets dicey. If you want to get contrarian, BIG is the team to go contrarian on, and I actually think it’s okay to do so if you want huge leverage. They were outstanding yesterday against a hot FaZe Clan team, and have five guys playing some of the best CS of their career. XANTARES for one is such a good value, it actually blows my mind. He’s historically been the best player for BIG; however, in recent months, the guy you’ve been needing to roster is tabseN, who seems to consistently do the right things.
On the other hand, the one thing I have to say about G2 is that they definitely lack consistency. Unless we’re talking about huNter-, the other four guys on G2 have the ability to look like a superstar on one map and then look like they’d lose to me on CS:GO casual (I’m looking straight at you, kennyS). Nevertheless, the two things that standout for me is that I think kennyS is actually deservedly higher in salary than nexa based on these map choices; however, nexa is so much cheaper that he is going to be much higher owned (and also deservedly so). The one guy who I feel is an X-Factor is AmaNeK. If I’m basing things on my predictions for Map 1 and 2, AmaNeK is actually 2nd on the team in K-D ratio. He absolutely is a GPP dart, but I think he has a little more potential than your typical GPP dart.
Captain Options: huNter-, kennyS, nexa, tabseN, syrsoN, XANTARES (low exposure)
Cash Game Options (ranked): huNter-, nexa, XANTARES, kennyS, syrsoN
FURIA (-170) vs. Team Liquid
Likely Bans: Dust2 and Train
Map Guesses: Overpass and Inferno (Map 3 and 4: Vertigo and Mirage)
Team Liquid looked out of this world against a Cloud9 team that has been showing a ton of potential in their games leading up to their meeting. Starting off with a 1-0 disadvantage against a solid FURIA team is going to be tough to overcome, but I think they have as good of a shot as any other team I’ve seen in this spot prior.
Team Liquid is almost a lock to pick Overpass in the map draft, and I really thought TL was as good as any team I’ve watched on Overpass in the last few weeks. When you know that they destroyed Cloud9 on what is really Cloud9’s best map, it makes it all the more impressive. So one big thing to consider today is who you want to roster out of Team Liquid. EliGE is always super popular, but he has actually been worse than NAF and Twistzz over the last month of play. Still, Overpass is arguably his best map, and in my eyes, there’s no possible way that doesn’t get played today. The guy who is #1 on my list is NAF, who has a ridiculous 1.21 rating over the last month of play. NAF tends to be the lowest owned out of the three due to Twistzz’s price tag always being low, but I think he’s the guy you really should be playing the most as a whole. If you are playing a ton of lineups, I don’t mind nitr0 as a GPP dart play and have him projected slightly higher than Stewie2k, who has been performing well in DreamHack.
FURIA’s kryptonite tends to be map selection. They love to pick Inferno even though it’s far from being their best map. They really should pick their best map of Mirage, but my guess is that they’re going to bypass Mirage for Inferno per usual, and Mirage will only be played as the 4th map, if it is necessary. As much as I’m hyping Team Liquid, you’re still going to want FURIA lineups. As long as they maintain their focus and remain disciplined, they will piggyback on that 1-0 advantage, and win this match. FURIA technically doesn’t have a guy who has historically been their #1 player. In reality, their #1 player has been the three-headed monster of KSCERATO, yuurih, and HEN1. Of course, HEN1 is only $6800, but I have him projected slightly higher than both of his star teammates, which makes him pretty much the best value in this FURIA/TL matchup. I also don’t mind taking a stab with arT, but he’s certainly risky because his game tends to either make him the first to kill or the first to die.
Captain Options: KSCERATO, yuurih, HEN1, EliGE, NAF, Twistzz
Cash Game Options (ranked): HEN1, yuurih, NAF, Twistzz, KSCERATO, EliGE