Today’s breakdown is for the three (3) game CS:GO slate that is centered on the three DreamHack Masters Best of 3 matches. Keep in mind, roster lock is going to be 8:00 AM ET/5:00 AM PT.
As I’ve mentioned in past articles, I’ve put a lot of time and effort in developing a good research model for these CS:GO slates. Obviously, with my big GPP wins coming into light, a lot of you guys probably want to find out as much information as possible regarding my game theory. I feel like I’ve shared a good amount of my approach in my past CS:GO articles, so please feel free to into the archives by clicking my profile below the article.
But one question I did get asked on Twitter is what stats I like to look at. In general, I think K-D ratio is a pretty big deal. While kills are worth 1.5 and deaths are worth 1, it’s still important to focus on players who kill others more than they die. Players with a better K/D ratio are simply more reliable. Beyond that, you definitely want to see if there are with higher upside when it comes to kills. Kills are naturally important because there are so many bonuses tied to it, whether that’s assists, first kills, 4x or 5x kills, or clutches.
Below is a cut/paste from my previous article, that talks a little bit more about CS:GO as a whole. It’s a super fun game to follow and sweat.
The nice thing about all e-Sports is the fact that you can watch ALL of the games in real time by going to Twitch. For instance, today’s slate is going to be streamed throughout the day by going to http://twitch.tv/dreamhackcs/. I have come to absolutely LOVE watching CS:GO because of all of the strategy that is involved. I’ve come to love it even more because I actually downloaded the game and have been playing it for about a month now. But the important thing to know is that by watching the games, I’m able to understand the role that each player has on the team. CS:GO is a 5v5 game and it isn’t a free-for-all. Some players may be snipers or riflers, but only one can be an in-game leader (IGL), which requires them to call out strategies, and scope out maps a little more than their teammates in order to find information. The IGL position tends to be very bad from a DFS perspective, but it’s certainly a position that has upside when playing against bad teams.
Additionally, in competitive CS:GO, there are a total of SEVEN different maps that teams can choose from. It goes through a draft process where each team can ban one of the seven maps (taking a total of two maps away from the pool), and then each selecting their map of choice. From there, each team bans one additional map, leading to a tiebreaker map that happens to be the 7th remaining map. Predicting the map choices as well as researching recent play on those map choices can lead to an edge that others may not even realize. I will tell you now. I take the time to examine the likely map bans/choices, and do research the recent play of each player on each of those map choices. There are times where it backfires, but I feel like in the long run, this will give me a bigger edge than others who may be going at things blindly on any given slate. Added note: you can find all of the CS:GO stats that you can handle by going to hltv.org. They provide the information that I use to “attempt” to predict map selections.
Again, for three game slates, you really should avoid the 3-3 stack. There are people out there who regularly try the 3-3 stack on these 3-game slates. It may work for GPPs if there are a super small number of lineups in your contest, but more often than not, I’m generally going to be talking about lineup construction for contests with maybe 250-3500 lineups, and you are really putting yourself at a disadvantage if you go with a 3-3 stack in a bigger GPP tourney.
The two lineup types that I will mix in my GPPs for these 3-game slates are 3-2-1 and 2-2-2 (usually, all from teams who I think are going to win, with no players facing each other). If there is a situation where you think there’s value in “game stacking”, I would do a 3-1 or a 2-1, and never a 2-2. The “1” player tends to also need to be a fairly high upside player to make this work. I will say for today’s slate, there’s a few names that come into mind, and those two are s1mple and NiKo.
NaVi (-170) vs. FaZe Clan
Likely Bans: Vertigo and Overpass
Map Guesses: Inferno and Dust2
NaVi are decent favorites against FaZe and I really think they are the better team with this 5-man FaZe group that includes the very erratic Bymas. The big thing here is s1mple is ridiculously underpriced on DraftKings and should be 100% owned in cash games. GPPs, I would say he’s going to need to be in 75% of your lineups, but if you want to live dangerously, there’s a lot of leverage in fading him. He’s not perfect, considering we saw a poor performance against G2 earlier this week, but I don’t know if you’re going to find a better value for someone with possibly the highest ceiling going today. The fact that EliGE, NiKo, AND FalleN are higher priced is a joke.
As for FaZe Clan, they really looked good in yesterday’s match against NiP. Bymas followed up with his stinker against BiG with a surprisingly consistent performance against NiP, and even taking over on Train. With that said, you probably shouldn’t play him today outside of maybe less than 10% exposure in GPPs if you need punts in your lineup. The guy you’re really going to want to focus on is broky, who is stupidly cheap as well, and NiKo if you want the upside and likely consistency. I have Inferno and Dust2 as two of NiKo’s better maps
Captain Options: s1mple, electronic, NiKo, coldzera/broky (smaller exposure)
Cash Game Options (ranked): s1mple, NiKo, broky, electronic, Perfecto, coldzera
Team Liquid (-305) vs. Gen.G
Likely Bans: Train and Overpass
Map Guesses: Inferno and Mirage
Team Liquid SHOULD win today but they are in no way -300 favorites against a team like Gen.G. We’ve seen Team Liquid lose to teams far worse than Gen.G. since COVID started, and they really have shown to lack consistency as a whole. Still, you’d be a fool if you don’t have a good amount of exposure to them. Twistzz and NAF are two of the best values of the day. I am willing to bite the bullet on EliGE as well in GPP, but it’s a little harder to justify playing him in cash games due to the high price tag compared to other big names.
Gen.G was brutal in the BLAST Premier last week, but I do think they have a reasonable chance at winning a map or two today. Mirage is one of their better maps, and it makes too much sense for them to choose it against TL, who even lost to Chaos on Mirage a few weeks back. The problem with Gen.G. is their overall inconsistency throughout the lineup; however, e-cig connoisseur koosta is definitely the most reliable. I also think s0m should be more in play than usual with the likely maps suiting his game more than others.
Captain Options: EliGE, NAF, Twistzz, koosta, autimatic
Cash Game Options (ranked): Twistzz, NAF, koosta, EliGE, s0m, BnTeT
MIBR (-180) vs. Cloud9
Likely Bans: Nuke and Mirage
Map Guesses: Inferno and Overpass
Even though MIBR are -180 favorites, I think this one may be the most competitive match on the slate. These two teams just recently met, with MIBR squeaking one out on the Dust2 tiebreaker, which is quite impressive considering Cloud9 has had way more experience than them on that map. FalleN is oddly way more expensive than fer, but in this case, I think it’s justified, because he does grade well on the two likely map choices, and is in good form. Yes, kNgV- will have higher ownership due to that price tag, but don’t forget about trk, who is starting to look more confortable with his new team.
Take a stance on either side, but know that if you play C9, you’re going to have the luxury of rostering a low owned stack to gain leverage on the field. I have motm as the highest graded and best value on the C9 roster today, but he usually does come with a little extra variance when rostering. Also, if oSee can get his AWP game going, he could be the guy who completely steals this one for C9.
Captain Options: FalleN, kNgV-, floppy, oSee, motm (small exposure)
Cash Game Options (ranked): kNgV-, FalleN, oSee, floppy, motm, fer, trk