Today’s breakdown is for the three (3) game CS:GO slate centered on the Dreamhack Masters contests with a 8:00 AM ET/5:00 AM PT roster lock.
It has been a few weeks since my first CS:GO article, and I have to say, my knowledge of CS:GO has increased by about 1000%. Sadly, that has not necessarily translated to WINNING (heh).
Winning CS:GO tournaments is not easy to do. While I had my big run, I’ve also learned that maxing out $10-$12 contests can be very pricey, and I’ve pretty much come to the conclusion that it’s not sustainable due to the obvious top heavy variance. Unless I become one of the top three best CS:GO GPP players in the world, I’m probably going to stick with honing my skills through smaller contests or maxing the Mini Max.
Still, money needs to be won, and the bankroll needs to be built back up. This past week, I actually tried something new, and that’s trying to SERIOUSLY be a good cash game player. I’m happy to say that I went a solid 4-for-6, with my last two lineups being in the top 3% in my double ups. I gotta be real with you, folks. Winning at DFS is not going to be easy, and it takes a lot of trial and error. Believe me, I’ve committed A LOT of errors over my last month of DFS CS:GO. But let me tell you what has worked.
- I actually enjoy watching CS:GO. So I do watch the games and I’ve been able to get a better understanding of how the games work. In the beginning, a lot of things just didn’t make sense. Like how can a team that starts their match 7-1, lose 7 games in a row and go into the half losing 8-7? Well, I definitely know the answer to that question now, but the point is, it takes EFFORT to learn about the game.
- Piggybacking on that point. Since I enjoy watching the game so much, I’ve actually started PLAYING the game. I’ve been playing for about three weeks now and I’ve gotten gradually better. But the biggest take away that I have taken away from playing CS:GO is the fact that ALL players are going to have maps that they excel at and maps that they struggle at. On top of that, some players may struggle more as terrorists than counter-terrorists, and vice versa. All maps have different strategies, and both sides have different strategies (and guns, but that’s another story).
- Piggybacking on THAT point, I’ve realized that if I’m going to expect to get an advantage in DFS CS:GO, I can’t be relying on other people’s research. Yes, I know whoever is reading this is probably twitching their neck a little, but again, I gotta be real with you guys. I can tell you that I’m putting in hours of research on this, but it’s still up to you to judge whether or not I’m actually doing that. It’s still up to you to judge whether or not my research is actually even productive. It’s a weird notion because I actually DID NOT take my own advice when this all started, and would base my plays on information on OTHER PEOPLE’S RESEARCH, and did not put in the effort that’s really necessary to succeed. I would do basic research on lineup construction, but that’s not enough if I expect to make money in CS:GO long term.
- Piggybacking on just about everything, I’ve taken my research to the point where I’m predicting map choices (each team can choose one map after the other team bans the map of their choice), and basing my own plays on how well each player plays my predicted map choice. This isn’t easy, AT ALL, but I feel like I’ve gotten to the point where I’m predicting AT LEAST one map correctly in every matchup, and have nailed both on many others. Being able to predict one map is HUGE because if a player is clearly terrible at one map and I have it predicted, I’m either not playing him in cash games or having less exposure to them in multi-entry GPPs.
- For 3 game slates, I’m pretty much eliminating the 3-3 stack. It’s actually pretty rare that three players from one team end up being the most optimal plays in any given lineup. For the most part, if you’re playing 3 game slates, you want to stick with 3-2-1 or 2-2-2 stacks. For cash games you definitely want to shy away from playing two teams from one game, but for GPPs, you CAN have it in your arsenal (though, you definitely don’t want to game stack in too high of a percentage of your lineups).
mousesports (-227) vs. compLexity Gaming
Banned Map Guesses: Inferno (mouz) and Overpass (CoL)
First Map Pick Guesses: Dust2 and Mirage
Tiebreaker Map Guess: Nuke
I could be completely off here, but I think this might end up being closer than you’d imagine. mousesports probably shouldn’t be over a -200 favorite, and I think compLexity is actually in a spot where they’re rock solid on all of the maps that mousesports is solid at. While this makes the map choices a little difficult to figure out, I think we may just have a situation where we go into the tiebreaking map in two very highly contested contests, and I even wouldn’t be surprised to see overtime in any of the maps.
For cash games, whenever there’s a lack of a clear winner, I am unlikely to play more than one player in my lineup, and even less likely to play them as captain.
Captain Options: ropz, woxic, k0nfig, blameF
Cash Game Options (ranked): k0nfig, woxic, ropz, blameF, frozen, oBo, poizon
MAD Lions (-145) vs. BIG
Banned Map Guesses: Inferno (MAD) and Train (BIG)
First Pick Guesses: Mirage and Nuke
Tiebreaker Guess: Dust2
This one is another evenly matched contest with both teams being absolutely solid in both projected map picks. As a whole, everything does point to MAD Lions having an edge. While BIG has been doing fairly well in recent play, they haven’t exactly faced stiff competition. On the other hand, Mad Lions has ended their most recent tournament run at Flashpoint playing exceptionally well, even defeating top 30 teams in MIBR, HAVU, and Cloud9, but hasn’t played in a real competition in over a month. I can certainly see MAD Lions being a little sluggish in today’s contests, and that makes me a little more intrigued by BIG than I would probably normally be.
You CAN play one player from each team in your cash games, but I’m not sure if that’s really the best way to go. In terms of safety, you probably go with two MAD Lions players.
Captain Options: Bubzkji, sjuush, roeJ (big time stab), syrsoN, XANTARES, tabseN
Cash Game Options (ranked): Bubzkji, roeJ, XANTARES, syrsoN, sjuush, acoR, tabseN
MIBR (-233) vs. CHAOS
Banned Map Guesses: Nuke (MIBR) and Vertigo (C)
First Pick Guesses: Dust2 and Inferno
Tiebreaker Guess: Overpass
It’s not a good sign when your two best players are two players who are brand spanking new to the team, and that’s the case for CHAOS with Xeppaa and Jonji. This is a winnable matchup for CHAOS, but MIBR are likely too talented for them to overcome. Based on my projected Map Choices, I think FalleN is by far the best player to roster on both teams, but that hefty salary makes him tough to roster (you should, but he’s just expensive), let alone play as Captain. The next best alternative is the nicely priced kNgV-, who has the upside to still be the top player on the slate. The most interesting thing to consider is that fer, who is often times MIBR’s best player actually does not grade as well on these two map choices. I may end up fading him in cash, but that does mean that you may have to consider TACO, who is a super super super boring play who usually doesn’t offer much upside, or trk, who is also brand new to the roster, and has only played with MIBR in competition ONCE (in a losing effort two days ago to FURIA).
Captain Options: FalleN, kNgV-, fer (limited exposure in multientry only), Xeppaa, Jonji
Cash Game Options (ranked): kNgV-, FalleN, TACO, trk, fer