Today’s breakdown is for the EIGHT (8) game CS:GO slate that is centered on the CS Summit Europe Best of 3 matches. Keep in mind, roster lock is going to be 9:00 AM ET/6:00 AM PT.
Note: Due to conflicts with my day job, just like the previous three weeks, I am scheduled to write CS:GO articles for Monday, Friday, Sunday this week.
With the BLAST Premier Spring Championships finishing over this past weekend, CS:GO tournaments continue with the CS Summit Europe qualifiers.
Once again, there is a European and North American qualifier, but I am going to be focusing on the 8 game European slate.
Eight games is A LOT of games when we’re talking about DFS CS:GO. You have to think that even with 4-6 game slates, the winning lineups tend to have very little correlation in the sense that stacking doesn’t help you win lineups. The most common winning lineups in 4-6 game slates tend to have very little stacking, which means you’re seeing a lot of lineups that are something like 2-2-1-1, or 2-1-1-1-1 taking down GPPs.
Again, that’s 4-6 games I’m talking about and not 8.
If your contests are under 100 entrants, and limited entry, then I think that there’s more merit in trying to stack more. You probably do considering doing the 1 3-man stack or two 2-man stacks, but I do think it’s going to limit your upside. Winners of those 5-6 game slates always have a 1-off that goes off for a big score out of nowhere.
There are some very lopsided matchups going today, and well, a lot of matches going on today, so I’m going to have to change up the writeup a bit and focus on recent play. For each team, I will go over the players with the best player ratings over the last month. The rating is a number between 0 and 2 where 0 is the equivalent of Ted Schuster playing CS:GO, 1 is average, and 2 is god-like. I think this is a better way to go because predicting maps probably isn’t as viable due to the fact that the big favorites may try to play maps that they aren’t as comfortable on.
FNATIC (-900) vs. NORDAVIND
Probably shouldn’t play any Nordavind guys today, but I have to say, Nordavind’s usual map ban is Train and that happens to be the only map that FNATIC has shown any form of consistency on. I would not be shocked if Nordavind steals a map, and somehow wouldn’t be shocked if they win the whole damn thing. Still, for DFS purposes, I’m still not playing Nordavind players unless it’s a few lineups in 100-150 entries. Also, don’t be thrown off by the player ratings. Nordavind has played much weaker competition than FNATIC has.
FNATIC: Brollan (1.06), KRIMZ (1.04), flusha (0.98), JW (0.95)
Nordavind: HS (1.06), NATOSAPHIX (1.04), cromen (1.04)
HEROIC (-340) vs. ENDPOINT
Heroic has a super balanced lineup and should be able to make quick work of Endpoint. Again, an Endpoint upset isn’t completely out of the question, but only play them if you are playing a ton of lineups.
Heroic: stavn (1.19), TeSeS (1.15), niko (1.11), cadiaN (1.09), b0RUP (1.04)
Endpoint: CRUC1AL (1.14), Thomas (1.11), robiin (1.02)
Dignitas (-450) vs. FATE
Having watched Dignitas in the BLAST Premier a few weeks ago, I find it hard to believe that they’re a -450 favorite against anyone, but FATE is definitely a lower-level team that shouldn’t be able to defeat teams the caliber of Dignitas. Again, don’t let the ratings fool you, Dignitas has had to face top 10 teams throughout the last month, while FATE hasn’t played anyone remotely close to the top 20. In the case of hallzerk, he is usually much higher rated than 0.87. Historically, we’ve seen him usually show up as the best player for his team.
Dignitas: f0rest (1.07), friberg (0.95), hallzerk (0.87), GET_RIGHT (0.85)
FATE: h4rn (1.18), blocker (1.10), mar (1.08)
MAD Lions (-880) vs. PACT
I would say this is the matchup where I don’t really believe the opposition has any possible chance of winning. PACT can steal a map, but they can’t beat MAD Lions in two maps because MAD Lions are just a cut above them and are good on all maps.
Usually the two highest rated players for MAD Lions has been Bubzkji and sjuush, but over the last month, it has actually been acoR who has looked like one of the best players in the world at times, and roeJ, who rarely gets looked as one of their top players.
Mad Lions: acoR (1.15), roeJ (1.13), Bubzkji (1.10), sjuush (0.98)
PACT: Goofy (1.17), Sobol (1.13), darko (1.08)
COMPLEXITY (-1080) vs. Japaleno
I promise you I did not misspell Japaleno. So we know which team is going to win this game, it’s just a matter if you’re willing to eat the chalk, or suspect that their upside isn’t as great without much of a chance of overtime maps, less accumulation of first kill/4x + 5x kill/clutch bonuses due to less rounds being played. I wouldn’t go crazy with your exposure to them here, but you just have to weigh things out. Virtually every player on the roster outside of RUSH is in play.
Complexity: blameF (1.28), oBo (1.16), k0nfig (1.10), poizon (1.10)
Jap: don’t do it.
BIG (-640) vs. HAVU
While Complexity one the BLAST Premier Spring Championship, it was BIG who won the DreamHack Masters the week prior. There is another major gap in skill between both teams and it’s the same situation with HAVU that I outlined with Nordavind and Endpoint.
BIG: tabseN (1.23), syrsoN (1.22), XANTERES (1.15), tiziaN (1.12), k1to (1.03)
HAVU: ZOREE (1.07), sLowi (1.01), doto (1.01)
c0ntact (-170) vs. AVEZ
This is suggested to be the most competitive matchup of the day, but based on what I know, I do think c0ntact being slight favorites is spot on. They have a very solid core of players in ottoN, EspiranTo, and SHiPZ, who can take over maps at any given time.
c0ntact: ottoN (1.23), EspiranTo (1.17), SHiPZ (1.17),
AVEZ: Kei (1.20), Markos (1.07), Kylar (1.06)
OG (-180) vs. SPROUT
I feel like I watched a little too much OG last week at the BLAST Premier, but they played two of the best teams in the world, so it’s unfair to view their struggles at BLAST as representative of them as a team. With that said, Sprout is a better team that you’d probably imagine. They are solid on all maps and rarely ever get shutout, even against tougher opposition. With OG on a big losing run, I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t show up today, and don’t mind anyone who wants to get a little exposure to the core Sprout players.
OG: mantuu (1.11), valde (1.07), Aleksib (1.02) Sprout: dycha (1.14), faveN (1.12), snatchie (1.04)
Sprout: dycha (1.14), faveN (1.12), snatchie (1.04)