Today’s breakdown is for the three (3) game CS:GO slate that is centered on the Blast Premier Best of 3 matches. Keep in mind, roster lock is going to be 10:30 AM ET/7:30 AM PT.
Please be sure to look back at my past articles to go through more about my research process. The easiest way to access my past articles is to click on my profile on the bottom of this page.
I know a lot of you guys are probably curious at how I’ve been winning so many CS:GO contests over the last few weeks. Trust me, a lot of this is luck that is going my way. For instance, the last kill of the Evil Geniuses/Team Liquid match on Wednesday went to CeRq, and I happened to win the $60k on DraftKings by a whopping 0.5 points (kills are worth 1.5 points). That’s a $6k swing based on ONE kill.
Still, it’s hard to pinpoint exactly what’s bringing me success at DFS CS:GO, but if you’re read my past articles, I think the main thing is just my understanding of the game, maps, roles, and even matchups. You have to think about it. Most of the biggest names in DFS who are entering every DFS contest in every sport imaginable probably aren’t doing their research based on specific things that you can gather just by watching games, or dissecting matchups for a sport/e-sport that they don’t know much about. Any edge you can find can go a long way. Just because I’m providing you information doesn’t mean you can’t go out there and find a bigger edge.
Remember, if you’re looking to follow each contest live, and try to figure this crazy e-sport out, you can watch all of the BLAST Premier contests by going to https://www.twitch.tv/blastpremier.
Thankfully after Monday’s LOOT.BET disaster, DraftKings got their shit together and they’ve been doing only BLAST Premier slates throughout the week.
I think 3 game slates are the best type of slate for CS:GO. To be frank, I actually think any slate bigger than 3 games is a bit of a crapshoot. There’s too many things that can happen in CS:GO as it is, and 4 or 5 game slates are a lottery, because winning lineups rarely have any type of major stacking beyond maybe one two person stack.
On the other hand, if you’ve read my articles, you’d know that the stacks you want to use for 3 game slates are 3-2-1 or 2-2-2. It would require the most random situations or a 3-3 stack to win you a big tournament. You can use players from opposite teams, but you definitely want to keep it to an absolute minimum. It’s generally –EV to do so, but the thing is, there are plenty of situations where a player from a losing team can come through with a good performance. I’d say today’s slate probably opens up a few opportunities to do so, with some of the best players in CS:GO in action. This specifically speaks to s1mple and ZywOo. I actually think today’s a pretty crazy slate because every single game is a bit of a toss up (and the Vegas odds support it).
NaVi (-115) vs. G2
Likely Bans: Overpass and Vertigo
Map Guesses: Nuke and Mirage
G2 had a pretty decisive win against NaVi in the DreamHack Masters, yet NaVi are slight favorites today. This definitely has to do with how poorly G2 performed in the DreamHack final against BiG and their following game against Team Vitality. At the end of the day, G2 is going to be a solid option on any slate against any team, but you definitely have to deal with the mind-blowing blowups that seem to happen in every match.
In general, I think this game SHOULD be more predictable than others because Nuke and Mirage are two of the most likely map choices (Dust2 is another), and both teams have been playing on it A LOT lately. For G2, nexa is randomly the most expensive option when it really should be huNter-. huNter- is super consistent and will rarely ever hurt you. nexa and kennyS can be very volatile, but I generally do think that nexa’s the guy with the better recent form and kennyS is the guy with the better history. Another thing to consider are guys who are going to be low owned (like under 20% or less) who have the ability to give your lineup an edge. For G2, I think jaCkz has a good chance of being that guy. He’s cheap and will fit in a lot of lineup builds, his recent form has been solid, and he has been above average on the likely map picks.
As for NaVi, I’m sure they burned a lot of you yesterday, but you can’t fade them today if you’re doing more than one lineup. Again, s1mple might be the best CS:GO player in the world and carries NaVi on a regular basis. Everyone and I mean EVERYONE got screwed by electronic yesterday, but I’m going to bank on people losing trust in him and driving down ownership, because he’s the clear cut #2 on this roster. It gets dicey from there. The #3 guy can vary between any of the remain guys, but today, I would rank it flamie, Perfecto, and then Booml4.
Captain Options: s1mple, electronic, nexa (low exposure), huNter-, kennyS
Cash Game Options (ranked): ZyWoO, huNter-, electronic, kennyS, jaCkz
Team Vitality (-110) vs. Ninjas in Pyjamas (-110)
Likely Bans: Train and Dust2
Map Guesses: Nuke and Mirage
Vitality had a tough time yesterday against a very well rounded team in Complexity. They should be back on track today against a team they’ve been playing a ton against in NiP. It’s clear that NiP is improving every game since they added hampus to their lineup. The transition to hampus was going to take a lot of time because he’s actually an in-game leader who plays a major role in calling out plays and set pieces.
Usually the top play for NiP juggles between nawwk and Plopski, and I’d say today is no difference. Still, based on my projected map selections, I have Plopski rated reasonably higher. REZ has the ability to be a solid #2 in any given match; however, I have him as the lowest graded player on the team today. With that said, there’s TONS of variance in CS:GO so if you’re doing a lot of lineups, you still want exposure, because he’s generally the clear #3 on the roster.
Remember when I said that s1mple is CARRIES NaVi on a regular basis? Well, I actually think ZywOo is an even bigger carry. His support on Vitality is very, very weak, but any one of the four can be a GPP winner. The problem is that it’s almost easier to predict powerball numbers than the #2 on Vitality. Still, I have it ranked RpK, shox, apex, misutaaa today if you care.
Captain Options: ZywOo, shox (low exposure), nawwk, Plopski
Cash Game Options (ranked): ZywOo, Plopski, nawwk, twist
Evil Geniuses (-125) vs. MIBR
Likely Bans: Overpass and Nuke
Map Guesses: Train and Dust2
Evil Geniuses looked amazing against Team Liquid on Wednesday and can really prove how good they really are with another win today against MIBR.
I’m actually pretty disgusted by what I saw in MIBR’s last match against FURIA. Every single time there was a pivotal win, it seemed that MIBR were having “connection issues”. Somehow, FURIA agreed to replay a point they won when the score was 12-12 on Inferno, and they ended up losing the replayed point, and eventually the map. Simply put, MIBR appear to be very shady here and I don’t like it. Again, DFS wise, you still need to consider them, but they are oddly way more expensive than the EG guys. If there’s one guy I give strong consideration to, it’s kNgV-. His recent form has been solid and he loves playing on Train and Dust2.
For EG, the standout player is their primary AWPer, CeRq. His last outing was solid, but I think he has 80 point upside today if the two maps are really Train and Dust2. Still, Brehze and Ethan both have the ability to dominate today and tarik has the ability to be a solid #3.
Captain Options: Brehze, CeRq, Ethan (small exposure), FalleN, kNgV-, fer (small exposure)
Cash Game Options (ranked): CeRq, Ethan, kNgV-, FalleN, Brehze