DraftCheat identifies 10 low-owned, high-upside NFL DFS plays each week to help give you unique lineups in GPPs!
1. Kyler Murray, ARI QB, DK Price $6400, Target Score 25.6 DK Points, Projected Ownership 4%
What I think is likely a phantom questionable tag on Kyler Murray for this week’s game against the Rams will work to cut his ownership even further in a juicy matchup at home against a Rams team that has lost the plot. We’ve seen what Murray is capable of week after week, and he’s only getting better. Yes, he’s priced up, but he brings as much upside to the QB position as anyone not named Jackson, Mahomes, or Allen and he’s going to have lower ownership this week than he typically does. I don’t anticipate any problem with the questionable status due to hamstring injury, but at least be available to pivot and have a plan in place if the unexpected does indeed happen.
2. Andy Dalton, CIN QB, DK Price $4700, Target Score 18.8 DK Points, Projected Ownership 6%
The last stand of the Red Rocket. After losing his job at midseason it appears the Bengals coaching staff has realized that while Andy Dalton is not the answer, he’s also not the problem. Dalton is a slightly below league average NFL QB, but he’s not priced like one. At $4700 Dalton comes at an extreme discount in a nice home matchup against the Jets who are very stout against the run but just average vs. passing offenses. Dalton has a lot to prove here and I think he’ll be ready. The Bengals want to win a game this season and this might be their best chance. Dalton balls out on Sunday.
3. Tyler Boyd, CIN WR, DK Price $5500, Target Score 22 DK Points, Projected Ownership 7%
My preferred pairing with Dalton is Tyler Boyd, who has had a disappointing season in the absence of AJ Green but is a player I continue to believe in. He’ll get a strong matchup in the slot for much of the game and averaged nearly 8 targets per game when Andy Dalton was quarterbacking this team. The Jets defense typically leads to a higher volume of pass attempts and the very fact that the Bengals are playing Dalton here to me says they are going to air it out a bit and go for a win at home. Boyd should be the primary beneficiary of a big Dalton game which I believe is coming.
4. Tyreek Hill, KC WR, DK Price $8900, Target Score 35.6 DK Points, Projected Ownership 5%
Nobody will want to pay the price tag on Tyreek Hill, who is somehow priced $1200 above any other wide receiver. He’s coming off a game where he recorded zero fantasy points before exiting in the first quarter due to injury, but returns here after logging full practices this week and gets a dream matchup against a Raiders defense that has zero answers for his skill set. Tyreek brings far more upside than any other wide receiver on the slate (along with more risk) which makes him that absolute ideal GPP play. I’m nervous about the hamstring acting up again, but the upside is so high and the ownership so low that buying in this week is a very profitable long term endeavour.
5. Mark Ingram, BAL RB, DK Price $6000, Target Score 24 DK Points, Projected Ownership 4%
With all the attention on Lamar Jackson, I expect Mark Ingram to go underowned despite a pretty juicy matchup against the 49ers defense that is elite against the pass but just average vs. the run. I think the Ravens dominate this game and make Jimmy G look silly. Ingram has slowly but surely taken command of the Ravens’ running back role and 20+ carries is certainly within reach here. He’ll smash as the Ravens obliterate the 49ers.
6. BAL DST, DK Price $2800, Target Score 10.8 DK Points, Projected Ownership 10%
Sometimes there are plays I love that maybe come in over 10% but just have to make this column anyway. The 49ers offense will get their shit pushed in tomorrow by the Ravens. Jimmy G is a fraud and the running game will sputter. Trust me, just lock in the Ravens D and take your 20 fantasy points to the bank.
7. Saquon Barkley, NYG RB, DK Price $7400, Target Score 29.6 DK Points, Projected Ownership 10%
It’s been a rough second half of the season for Saquon Barkley, who hasn’t done much since returning earlier than expected from an ankle injury. He continues to get healthier, though, and has faced a run of tough matchups that will end this week with a juicy home matchup against the Packers, who are getting dominated by opposing running backs, ranking 28th against the rush per Football Outsiders DVOA. This should be a classic Saquon game where we see 25+ touches and 30+ fantasy points at a discounted price tag and hopefully discounted ownership as well.
8. Darrell Williams, KC RB, DK Price $4400, Target Score 17.6 DK Points, Projected Ownership
The Chiefs running back situation has been tough to nail down this year. But we do know they are putting up 3+ touchdowns on Sunday against the Raiders, and with Damien Williams out and the Chiefs seemingly wanting to limit LeSean McCoy’s usage, it could in theory set up for a big game for Darrell. I’m not super comfortable with it, but he’s a talented back and there is clear upside here if you want to roll the dice.
9. Travis Kelce, KC TE, DK Price $7200, Target Score 28.8 DK Points, Projected Ownership 10%
Hoping the high price tag and relative lack of production keeps his ownership in check. Kelce has run insanely bad only recording 4 touchdowns this year despite massive red zone and end zone targets, and I bet he still gets double digit touchdowns on the year. He’s so far above every tight end on the slate this week that he’s worth paying for even at the elevated price tag. The floor/ceiling combination with Kelce is worth it.
10. Patrick Mahomes #ALWAYSMAHOMES