The English Poet Geoffrey Chaucer once wrote, “all good things must come to an end.” While I am sure that good ole Geoffrey meant something along the lines of life and our spiritual existence, I think this applies to fantasy football as well. Sure, why not?
This was an amazing season. We all entered the 2020 fantasy football season in the thick of a global pandemic that had already derailed the NBA, NHL, XFL, MLB and every other major sport season. We had absolutely no idea if there was actually going to be an NFL season and if so, what to expect from it. When we turned our attention to the NFL season back in April, there was a lot of doubt about whether or not this effort would be worth it. Now that we have made it all of the way to the end I can say with all sincerity that it has been a defining period of my life.
We didn’t just win this season, we absolutely dominated our competitors unlike anything I have ever seen before. This isn’t an opinion. This isn’t a guess. This is a fact. Two million dollar plus winners, nine $100,000 plus winners, 13 $50,000 winners and thousands of profitable screenshots over the last 20 weeks. The best part of all of those winners? They are all YOU.
It’s no secret that Elite Fantasy had a major transformation in 2020. We stood by as some of our co-workers, partners and friends went cuckoo for cocoa puffs. We had to open the barn doors and let the animals all scurry off. Everybody left in the barn made a pledge that we would never again allow OUR profits and wins overshadow those of our subscribers. Blah…”subscribers” I kind of hate that word to be honest with you. This is the Elite Mafia. This is a FAMILY. We ride or die together. I am happy, honored really, to be among the front men here for all of you and when we lose, I can stand out there and take the shots. But the goal of this company and the goal of every single one of our analysts is for the Elite Mafia to win. It isn’t about us any longer and I strongly believe that had a lot to do with just how good this NFL season was for us.
I could seriously speak and write about this forever, but I understand that it has been a long season, you’ve heard me discuss this before and we have a pretty big game here in Super Bowl 55. This is our last chance to win and there is a lot of money around the DFS industry this week. As a matter of fact, our friends at SuperDraft have a million dollar guarantee prize pool with a $300,000 top prize this week. This contest is almost definitely going to overlay so if are hoping for that last massive hit of the season, this is probably your best shot.
Each Super Bowl presents us with a variety of storylines and matchup intricacies. But these teams are pretty old fashioned to us. The Chiefs are the defending champions who has had our attention since Patrick Mahomes became their starting QB in 2018. Tom Brady is playing in his record 10th Super Bowl this week. In fact, the Buccaneers hosted the Chiefs just 70 days ago in week 12 of the regular season. While Kansas City won this matchup and held a big lead most of the way, the Bucs offense finished with a fury closing to within a field goal with four minutes remaining.
While a lot has changed in these past 70 days, we know exactly who these teams are and what their strengths and weaknesses are. The Chiefs offense is as prolific as any we’ve seen in NFL history and if they connect on big plays there is likely nothing that Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay offense will be able to do about it. But where there is a Brady, there is a way and we all know that if this becomes a battle of pure execution, the 43-year old will again hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
So, let’s get to it then. But before we do, one last THANK YOU to every single one of you who has trusted me and my great team here across the Elite Sports Network (Fantasy Guru, Elite Fantasy & Elite Sports Betting) this season. Remember that we cover every single sport and have fresh content every single day. Our NBA and NHL teams are already crushing it and I will be back in DFS form for MLB season. In the meantime, you can bet your sweet ass that I’ll once again be grinding away late every single night building our 2021 fantasy football product. We aren’t going to rest on this amazing 2020 season. The 2021 edition will once again be cutting edge and far ahead of our competition. Thank you for being a part of the Elite Mafia and let’s make one last statement to the world about how we roll.
Elite Mafia Playoff League
This has been an absolute delight playing in this Playoff League with all of you. The great thing about fantasy football is that we have been able to adapt this game that we all love to a variety of different forms, each of which presents a unique set of obstacles and strategies. I love this format because it benefits us for projecting the winners and determining when the right time to use those that move on. Thank you all for participating and good luck this week!
PLEASE remember to set your lineup for the Super Bowl and improve your chance at claiming one of our prizes. Also, please don’t let me win this thing as that would be incredibly disappointing for all of us.
Scoring: Full point PPR
Lineup: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX (RB/WR/TE)
Standings: Total points scoring only
1) Jeff Mans (ME!) – 462.50
2) Porkknockers – 456.14
3) Deez Nutz – 448.22
4) Ju Tang Clan – 445.42
5) LetsDoThis – 444.94
6) Cobra Kai – 440.10
7) Brad Evan’s Tequila – 433.20
8) Turn and Biletnikoff – 429.64
9) Fire Fangi-Old – 428.56
10) Felix in Chicago – 426.92
1st – $100
2nd – Full year VIP subscription to Fantasy Guru (MLB & NFL)
3rd – Full year VIP subscription to Fantasy Guru (MLB & NFL)
4th – 1 month VIP to Elite Fantasy or Elite Sports Betting
5th – 1 month VIP to Elite Fantasy or Elite Sports Betting
6th – $50
7th – $25
8th – Elite Mafia T-Shirt
9th – Elite Mafia T-Shirt
10th – Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (Fantasy Guru)
Here is the DFS NFL Postseason Writeup for Super Bowl 55:
SUPER BOWL LV
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 6:30pm ET
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, Florida
Weather: (Will update on Saturday)
Spread: Chiefs -3
Point Total: 57.0
- CHIEFS – (Will update after official injury report comes out on Friday)
- BUCCANEERS – (Will update after official injury report comes out on Friday)
Matchups To Exploit
- Chiefs – The natural environment and instincts of the Kansas City offense is their biggest advantage in Super Bowl 55. The Chiefs were the sixth highest scoring team in the NFL this season while racking up the most total yards, passing yards and third most passing touchdowns. With Buccaneers DT Vita Vea back, it really doesn’t make much sense for the Chiefs to run the ball much at all. The clear advantage here is the KC passing offense against the Tampa secondary which gave up the second most completions, 10th most passing yards, 11th most passing TD’s, the third most completions of 20+ yards and the fourth most completions of 40+ yards this season. This is why Patrick Mahomes threw for 462 yards against them just two months ago. It comes down to speed and while the Chiefs have it at just about every position on their offense, the Bucs are the eighth slowest defense in the NFL.
- Buccaneers – Well how would you feel if you are the Tampa Bay defense and have Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and company coming to town just a few weeks after they put up 500+ yards of total offense against you? Bruce Arians, his coaching staff and QB Tom Brady are not stupid. They know that they cannot get into a track meet with the Chiefs or this game will be over by halftime. We should expect the Buccaneers to establish the run and do everything they can to keep the Kansas City offense off of the field. The Chiefs are second worst DVOA against the run this season. They gave up the 12th most rushing yards per attempt overall this season. Kansas City also surrendered the ninth most rushing yards, third most receptions, the most receiving yards and 10th most fantasy points to RB’s this season. In their regular season meeting, the Bucs only ran the ball 12 times which is why they fell behind 27-10. Expect a healthy dose of both Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones early on to move the ball and to keep Mahomes off the field.
Best Plays (SuperDraft/FD/DK)
- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (1x/$16,500/$12,000)
- Tyreek Hill, Chiefs (1.4x/$14,000/$10,400)
- Travis Kelce, Chiefs (1.3x/$14,500/$11,000)
- Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers (1.75x/$12,500/$7800)
- Mike Evans, Buccaneers (1.55x/$11,500/$8400)
- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (1x/$16,500/$12,000) – What else can I possibly say about Mahomes? He’s the best QB in the league and in the best offense in the NFL. Just over two months ago, he absolutely shredded the Bucs defense to the tune of 462 yards, three passing TD’s and 33.28 fantasy points. Now that he is three weeks removed from that massive concussion, he suffered we should not expect any repercussions thereof. The Tampa Bay defense is the best in the league at stopping the run. This should funnel pass attempts from Mahomes and the KC offense. Indeed, the Chiefs threw the ball 49 times in their week 12 meeting despite being up three scores most of the game. Mahomes is the logical play to lock into our captain/champion spot as he will likely be the highest scoring player of the game. But I did stumble upon a very interesting fact when researching the most fantasy points ever scored in Super Bowls. Only one QB made the list of the top 10 all-time best fantasy performances (Steve Young). Of the 54 Super Bowls that have been played, a QB has been the top fantasy performer 26 times. Mahomes is certainly capable of exploding in this matchup but if he does he will likely catapult one of his many weapons to that top spot overall.
- Tom Brady, Buccaneers (x/$/$) – Duh. Yeah, be contrarian with “the other guy” in this case the QB who owns just about every career Super Bowl passing record known to man. While Mahomes is a better play, it isn’t as if Brady outscoring him would be that crazy. If Mahomes and the Chiefs offense go off early, Brady and company will have to throw the ball a ton to keep up which will lead to big numbers. This is exactly what happened in the first meeting between these teams in week 12 and Brady wound up throwing for 345 yards, three TD’s and 25.8 fantasy points. If you only put in one lineup this week, Mahomes is your play. If you do multiple (as is recommended), you will want to go 70/30 in favor of the Chiefs QB.
- Chad Henne, Chiefs (2.3x/$5000/$6000) – Sometimes you gotta get weird if you want to stack the deck in your favor. We call this one “the Seige” as you use the backup QB of the team most likely to score the most points and who’s starting QB is most likely to be injured. Remember that Mahomes is technically dealing with a foot injury and will be evaluated for any hard contact made on him. To be clear, this isn’t a move that I personally would make but that is why it could be a massive advantage. A Henne lineup should be 1% or less of your total build this week.
O-LINE/D-LINE MATCHUPS (Mans Model – Point System Scale of -100 – 100)
1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -> Kansas City Chiefs – 80
2) Kansas City Chiefs -> Tampa Bay Buccaneers – (-20)
- Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers (1.75x/$12,500/$7800) – Lenny has really taken ahold of this Tampa Bay backfield as evidenced by his 70% of snaps in the NFL Championship Game. He is the power runner than has given the Chiefs defense fits this season. I’ve said it over and over this week and will continue to do so that the Bucs absolutely must run the ball well against the Chiefs on Sunday. The Chiefs are second worst DVOA against the run this season. They gave up the 12th most rushing yards per attempt overall this season. Kansas City also surrendered the ninth most rushing yards, third most receptions, the most receiving yards and 10th most fantasy points to RB’s this season. If they have success on the ground here this week, it will likely mean a very big week for Fournette.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs (1.7x/$10,000/$7000) – I really love CEH here this week. He is now two months removed from an ankle and hip injuries that kept him out of games for six weeks. He returned for the AFC Championship Game and logged more snaps, pass routes and targets than Darrel Williams. The majority of the DFS community still believes that Williams is the certain alpha in this backfield which will give us a much lower ownership number on CEH. While I don’t expect any of the Chiefs RB’s to really have a profound fantasy game, Edwards-Helaire is the one that could breakthrough. He is a better edge runner than Williams which is where you have to run for any kind of effectiveness against the Bucs and he is also the primary pass catcher in case the Chiefs are playing catch up.
- Ronald Jones, Buccaneers (1.95x/$8000/$2200) – There are a lot of seemingly viable RB’s between these two teams. But there just isn’t any situation or clear path to valuable touches for the likes of Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy or Darwin Thompson. Jones is not going to be “super contrarian” though using him in a captain spot would be. Jones has been hampered by a quad injury suffered before their Wildcard game with the Washington Potatoes. But Jones has been completely removed from the injury report and should be able to open it up now. Jones rushed just nine times but gained 66 yards (7.3 YPA) against the Chiefs in week 12. It is a very sharp big play option here to go with Jones as either one of your standard FLEX options or as your captain.
WORST COVERAGE CORNERBACKS- WR/TE MATCHUP (Mans Model, By YOUR Request)
1) Devin White (LB)/Jordan Whitehead(S), Buccaneers -> Travis Kelce, Chiefs
2) Sean Murphy-Bunting, Buccaneers -> DeMarcus Robinson, Chiefs
3) L’Jarius Sneed, Chiefs -> Chris Godwin, Buccaneers
4) Damien Wilson (LB)/Daniel Sorensen(S), Chiefs – Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers
5) Charvarius Ward, Chiefs -> Antonio Brown, Buccaneers
- Tyreek Hill, Chiefs (1.4x/$14,000/$10,400) – I have watched the Bucs/Chiefs week 12 game four times in its entirety and have seen every route that Tyreek ran in that game about a dozen times. My professional evaluation of that performance was that Tyreek Hill butt fucked Carlton Davis up and down the field before getting bored. It was an absolute slaughter and there just isn’t any real explanation for it other than that Tyreek Hill is just too fast for Davis to handle. He is the main WR to consider for your captain/champion slot if you decide to move away from Mahomes.
- Mike Evans, Buccaneers (1.55x/$11,500/$8400) – The only other WR I would consider in the captain/champion spot is Evans. Even though he alternates with Chris Godwin in terms of which Tampa WR is more targeted from week to week, he is the alpha when it comes to the big plays and especially the red zone. Evans was fourth in the NFL in red zone targets, six in red zone receptions, second in targets inside the 10 yard line, second in targets inside the five yard line, second in endzone targets and fourth in TD’s this season. Evans didn’t do much against the Chiefs in their regular season meeting, but did generate nine targets and caught two TD’s in his three total receptions.
- Sammy Watkins, Chiefs (2.4x/$7500/$4200) – As I have been saying all week, the two most overlooked players in Super Bowl 55 have been Sammy Watkins and Antonio Brown. Most of that is because they have both been out for most of the playoffs but both of them are likely to return for the biggest game of the year. As of this writing, I am seeing many optimizers completely withholding both Watkins and Brown. This will likely change if there is a positive injury report on Friday but it is almost certain that Watkins and Brown will be listed as questionable. So if we can build around one or (gulp) both of these guys, we could be at an advantage. I prefer Watkins here only because it is being projected that both Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson will be significantly higher owned.
- Mecole Hardman, Chiefs (2x/$7500/$5600) – I just love Mecole Hardman. The dude is every bit as fast as Tyreek Hill and perhaps even a bit more elusive in the open field. During the regular season in my Cash Game Breakdowns, I stay far away from anything resembling a gadget player. But in showdown slates, I love them. Hardman is used a variety of ways in this Kansas City offense. If Sammy Watkins and/or Demarcus Robinson are limited or out, Hardman becomes the sure third receiving option in this Chiefs offense. He is also used in the running game with at least one rush attempt in four of his last five games. Hardman is also the punt returner for the Chiefs which gives him yet another avenue to production. The Bucs gave up the 10th most punt return yards, second most punt return TD’s and were the second worst rated special teams unit according to PFF.
- Scotty Miller, Buccaneers (2.2x/$6500/$3400) – if Antonio Brown doesn’t play, Miller becomes the WR3 once again for the Bucs. But even if AB does go, he will be limited and Miller would still see the field in both three and four WR sets. Tom Brady goes deep to Miller once or twice a game and when they connect big plays happen.
- Travis Kelce, Chiefs (1.3x/$14,500/$11,000) – Kelce is the greatest TE of all time. He’s having the greatest fantasy season for a TE ever this season. I couldn’t even fathom using another TE in a standard DFS format this week. But even in our showdown lineup where we can choose any QB, RB or WR, Kelce is a premium play. The Bucs gave up the seventh most receptions, seventh most TD’s and the 11th most fantasy points to TE’s this season. Kansas City needs to throw the ball to win and that means at least a quarter of Patrick Mahomes throws will be in the direction of Kelce.
- Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers (2.3x/$6500/$3000) – Gronk is and always has been a big game player. He actually owns the 16th highest scoring fantasy Super Bowl performance ever back in Super Bowl 52. Earlier this season against the Chiefs, Gronkowski generated seven targets, six receptions and 106 yards. That was the most receptions and only 100+ yard performance of this year. The Bucs surrendered the eighth most receptions, fifth most receiving yards, seventh most TD’s and the seventh most fantasy points to TE’s this season.
- Cameron Brate, Buccaneers (2.4x/$7000/$4800) – Brate’s usage has gone up considerably since the playoffs began. He’s still only playing about 42% of offensive snaps but has run just 10 fewer routes than Rob Gronkowski this postseason. Even though he’s logging less snaps, Brate has also been far outproducing Gronk in terms of fantasy production. Brate has 17-11-149-1 stat line in the playoffs while Gronk has racked up just 7-2-43-0. Brate also had a TD called back due to penalty in the Washington Potatoes in the Wildcard Round. The only issue here is that he is more expensive on both FD and DK which would be great if that actually led to higher ownership on him but I doubt that it will.
(Showdown mode doesn’t have DST on FD but I’ll give you the choices anyways)
- Kansas City Chiefs ($/$2600) – Even though the Chiefs defense isn’t very good, their offensive prowess forces opposing teams to become one dimensional and play right into their defensive strengths. The pass rushing ability of Frank Clark and Chris Jones combined with the ball hawking ability of safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Daniel Sorensen are what makes this unit tick. We can expect turnovers to come in bunches late as the Bucs throw to comeback.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($/$2800) – Tampa is by far the more superior defense here as evidenced by their fifth best overall DVOA this season. They are stifling against the run especially now with DT Vita Vea back from a broken leg earlier this season. So that does give them a lot of opportunities for sacks and interceptions with the Chiefs going with a pass heavy script. Still, they will likely have a lot of points scored against them and thus the risk really outweighs that of the Chiefs DST.
- Harrison Butker, Chiefs (2.25x/$8500/$4000) – Butker has been erratic late in the season but the Chiefs will likely score more points and thus more chances for their kicker.
- Ryan Succop, Buccaneers (2.3x/$8500/$3800) – Succop missed just three field goals all season and none from less than 40-yards. I expect the Bucs having to go for it on fourth down a bunch if they fall behind and that will limit his chances unfortunately.
Since this is a GPP (tournament) slate, that means it is a time to build multiple lineups. With that in mind, there are no players who are just completely off limits to us here. It’s all about reading all three game scripts, interpreting them and using the players that will most execute those script best.
In keeping with my usual Core 4 theme, let’s go over a pair of different lineup builds that I will be using. I’m planning on playing about four to six total lineups in this slate. Here is a little bonus for those that actually READ this paragraph instead of just jumping to the core four.
Core Four #1 (Chiefs win, predictable game script)
- Captain/Champion – Tyreek Hill, Chiefs (1.4x/$14,000/$15,600)
- FLEX – Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (1x/$16,500/$12,000)
- FLEX – Mecole Hardman, Chiefs (2x/$7500/$5600)
- FLEX – Mike Evans, Buccaneers (1.55x/$11,500/$8400)
Core Four #2 (Close game, Chiefs win)
- Captain/Champion – Travis Kelce, Chiefs (1.3x/$14,500/$11,000)
- FLEX – Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs (1.7x/$10,000/$7000)
- FLEX – Ronald Jones, Buccaneers (1.95x/$8000/$2200)
- FLEX – Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers (2.3x/$6500/$3000)
Core Four #3 (Tampa Bay win)
- Captain/Champion – Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers (1.75x/$12,500/$7800)
- FLEX – Travis Kelce, Chiefs (1.3x/$14,500/$11,000)
- FLEX – Mike Evans, Buccaneers (1.55x/$11,500/$8400)
- FLEX – Ryan Succop, Buccaneers (X/$8500/$3800)