Jeff Mans guides us through all things playoff fantasy football. Whether it be league play or DFS NFL Super Bowl 54 action, be prepared to add to that bankroll!
Well, this is officially the end. The end of the 2019 NFL season. This is not the end of the fantasy football season, mind you, as the XFL begins just six days after Super Bowl 54. We have full coverage of seasonal, daily and betting on the XFL over at our sister site, Fantasy Guru. If you want to check it out, a great spot to start is with my XFL Overview writeup followed by our team-by-team writeups.
Super Bowl 54, though, officially ends the season of daily fantasy football, and I just want to say what a blast it has been serving you folks again this season. Like most seasons, we had our share of ups and downs, and quite frankly, this season wasn’t my best by any means. But we made profits and most importantly learned a ton. As a matter of fact, in sixteen years of analyzing fantasy football, I cannot remember ever being more confident going into a season as I am ALREADY about 2020.
I’ll have plenty to say about next season in our offseason writeups, Draft Guide and preseason DFS tutorials. But for now, let’s focus on going out with a huge bang and getting us as much of this Super Bowl DFS money as possible.
I’ve broken down the 49ers and Chiefs from literally every single angle possible. There are two very direct ways this Super Bowl is going to go, and our job is to dive as deep as we can into one or both sides, depending on how aggressive you are willing to go. Let’s get to it:
PLAYOFF FANTASY FOOTBALL
I could sit here and explain to you all of the types of postseason fantasy football leagues that you could set up or join but my guy Armando Marsal did this long ago for our Fantasy Guru subscribers, as you can read here.
Elite Mafia Playoff League
All players from teams still alive in the NFL Playoffs are available to all teams each week. Franchise owners select a starting lineup from this player pool each week, but each player can only be used ONE TIME through the duration of the playoffs.
Great job everybody. We only had one team not set a lineup, an all-time record (sadly, I am serious). PLEASE remember to set your lineup for the Super Bowl and cement your chance at claiming one of our prizes. Most importantly, don’t let me or Ted beat you as that would be embarrassing.
Teams – 100
Scoring – Full point PPR
Lineup – 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR,
1 TE, 1 FLEX (RB/WR/TE)
Standings – Total points scoring only
1) Applebee’s Urinal Coaching Tree – 536.50
2) Pimp Smacker – 511.10
3) Sniper – 507.78
4) AndrewDZ051 – 500.16
5) Narjar – 496.72
6) Easier Pronunciation for Mans – 492.98
7) CMAT – 476.94
8) MontanaBrian – 474.26
9) FantasySlayer – 471.36
10) Fuzzalicious – 467.78
1st – $50
2nd – $30
3rd – $20
4th – Elite Mafia T-Shirt
5th – Elite Mafia T-Shirt
6th – Elite Mafia T-Shirt
7th – Month of DFS NBA or NHL Content or Opto
8th – Month of DFS NBA or NHL Content or Opto
9th – Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide
10th – Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide
DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL
This is likely what you came here for in the first place, right? Of course, there is DFS NFL this postseason, and of course, we are on top of it here at Elite Fantasy. No, I will not be writing a Cash Game Breakdown for the playoffs.
The fact of the matter is, with just four games per week over the first two weeks of the postseason, there simply isn’t a true cash game experience for us. Normally, we can build a zero-fat lineup based on a tremendous amount of research and matchup breakdowns. But with one, two and four-game slates, this allows even the most casual of DFS players to do a proper amount of research. Thus, our cash game edge is all but obliterated.
Now, I still strongly recommend the single entry 50/50 contests even in the postseason. These contests offer you the best opportunity to win, plain and simple. So, if you are new to DFS, have been struggling to win this season and/or are on a very strict budget, these are still the right contests for you.
Personally, I will be playing almost exclusively in GPP’s (tournaments) throughout the playoffs. What’s more, I will likely be building multiple lineups each week as well; something I rarely do during the regular season. Please understand, I do this with the full intention of not winning a single dollar that I put in back. Tournaments are very difficult and offer super high paylines and a limited number of payouts. If you are on a budget, don’t follow my lead in contest selection during the postseason.
I will still provide you with my core four but this way you will also get some of my deeper dive plays along with the analysis behind them.
Here is the DFS NFL Postseason Writeup for Super Bowl 54:
San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs – 6:30 pm ET
Spread: Chiefs -1
Point Total: 54.5
Weather: Partly Cloudy with temperatures in the mid-60’s at gametime.
Winds will be slight to the north-northwest at 12-14 MPH.
- 49ERS – Tevin Coleman, RB (shoulder) & Kwon Alexander, LB (pectoral) are PROBABLE.
- CHIEFS – Travis Kelce, TE (knee) is PROBABLE.
Matchups To Exploit
- 49ers – The 49ers are a running offense, plain and simple. They were second in the NFL in rushing attempts, second in rushing percentage of plays, second in rushing yards and sixth in rushing yards per attempt during the regular season. Then they went out and rushed for 186 and 285 yards with six rushing touchdowns in their two playoff games against the Vikings and Packers. The Chiefs defense, meanwhile, is awful against the run. Kansas City is fourth-worst DVOA against the run, allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game, the sixth-most rushing yards per attempt and the fourth-most fantasy points to RB’s this season. Even with Tevin Coleman banged up, the 49ers gameplan will center around running the football and keeping Patrick Mahomes off of the field.
- Chiefs – The Chiefs offense is prolific, and this is the team we all expected to be in the Super Bowl when the season started. Patrick Mahomes has returned to form down the stretch, and the Chiefs still wound up scoring the fifth-most points in the NFL this season. The Chiefs were 15th in the NFL in pass attempts this season but finished fourth in passing yards and second in passing yards per attempt. They thrive off of the big passing play, but that could be difficult to do against this San Francisco defense. The 49ers were second on overall DVOA, fifth-best in points against, second-best in yards against, third-best pass rush according to PFF, second in pass coverage according to PFF, surrendered the second-least passing yards and gave up the least amount of passing yards per attempt. The Chiefs will have to make quick, accurate throws in order to move the ball against this defensive unit.
Best Plays (FD/DK Pricing)
- Raheem Mostert, 49ers ($13,500/$14,100)
- Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($12,500/$14,400)
- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($16,000/$18,900)
- George Kittle, 49ers ($11,500/$12,600)
- Emmanuel Sanders, 49ers ($7500/$7800)
DFS NFL SUPER BOWL 54 POSITION-BY-POSITION
- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs – He’s the symbol of the next wave of great NFL QB’s, and with a win in Super Bowl 54, he will become the unofficial face of the NFL. He comes into the last game of the season having averaged 308 yards and four touchdowns in his two playoff games. The matchup is tough, but he did throw for 314 yards and 3 TD’s against the 49ers last season. Sure, this defense is much improved since then, but there hasn’t really been a defense yet that could stop the Patrick Mahomes train. If he gets hot, there is little to no chance Jimmy Garoppolo can get within 10 points of him.
The Other Guy
- Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers – The best scenario for Garoppolo, from a fantasy standpoint, is if the Chiefs offense takes off early, forcing the Niners to throw. Because if they don’t, they won’t. It’s really hard to see a way that Garoppolo could rack up 20+ fantasy points and outscore Patrick Mahomes. The foundation of these two offenses just doesn’t justify using more Garoppolo than Mahomes if building multiple lineups. In fact, I would recommend an 8-1 Mahomes to Jimmy G rate this week.
- Raheem Mostert, 49ers – With Tevin Coleman questionable due to a dislocated shoulder, it is doubtful – even if he is active – he would cut into Mostert’s workload much this week. Mostert shredded the Green Bay Packers for 220 yards and four rushing TD’s in the NFC Championship Game, and the Chiefs are an even better matchup for him and the 49ers running game. In that week three matchup last season, the 49ers ran for 180 yards and one touchdown despite trailing the entire ballgame. San Francisco isn’t going to let him carry the ball 29 times again so another RB, whether it is Coleman or Matt Breida, will be involved. But none of these other RB’s on either sideline are going to post the numbers that Mostert will behind this 49ers offensive line.
- Damien Williams, Chiefs – I like Damien Williams a ton this week. The Chiefs really need to establish a running game in order to protect Patrick Mahomes and set up their passing game. The 49ers are sneaky average against the run. They are just 12th DVOA against the run and surrendered the 12th most rushing yards per attempt this season. Since returning from injury in Week 16 of the regular season, Williams is averaging 18 touches, 101 total yards, 1.75 touchdowns and 24.1 fantasy points per game. To neutralize great pass rushers as the 49ers have, you must run at them, and this could lead to a real big game from D-Will this week.
- Matt Breida, 49ers – As I said in the Mostert writeup, the 49ers will rotate RB’s as evidenced by Tevin Coleman’s big divisional round game followed by Mostert’s monster NFC Championship Game. If Coleman isn’t active due to his shoulder injury, Breida would be next man up. If you want to get REAL contrarian, don’t ignore FB Kyle Juszczyk. Breida has elite speed, as he proved by having the fastest recorded play of 22.3 MPH during the regular season, according to NFL’s NextGen stats. We have to find ways to be contrarian on a one-game slate, which means every single player who will see the field is viable.
WORST COVERAGE CORNERBACKS – WR MATCHUP (Mans Model, By YOUR Request)
- Charvarius Ward, Chiefs → Emmanuel Sanders, 49ers
- Bashaud Breeland, Chiefs → Deebo Samuel, 49ers
- Emmanuel Moseley, 49ers → Tyreek Hill, Chiefs
- Kendall Fuller, Chiefs → Kendrick Bourne, 49ers
- Tyreek Hill, Chiefs – Obviously, Tyreek is the single biggest game breaker in Super Bowl 54 and capable of dropping 30+ fantasy points in a variety of ways. He would make a good semi-contrarian play in a captain/MVP spot though. The matchup for Tyreek should be the best of all Kansas City receivers, provided Andy Reid doesn’t sacrifice him for some odd reason. The 49ers stick their CB’s to one side, which allows the offense to determine the matchups. It’s fully expected Tyreek will then see a lot of Emmanuel Moseley, who is an undrafted free agent and was on the practice squad a year ago. Moseley has only moved into the starting lineup due to the struggles of Ahkello Witherspoon.
- Emmanuel Sanders, 49ers – Sanders is going to be a force in this game, providing the 49ers actually have to pass. Sanders has a lot of experience against this Chiefs secondary, having played in the AFC West for the past five years. He hasn’t posted gaudy numbers against them but posted a respectable 6-5-60-0 stat line against them back in week seven, his last game as a Denver Bronco. Sanders has the best CB matchup of all WR’s in Super Bowl 54, going up against Chiefs CB Charvarius Ward, who surrendered a 103.3 QB rating this season. Deebo Samuel will be the more heavily owned 49ers WR due to his recent success. But Sanders’ quiet playoffs so far really presents us with a golden opportunity to get him at a much lower ownership rate this week.
- Demarcus Robinson, Chiefs – Robinson has been one of my favorite longshots all during the playoff run, and I will stick with him here. Though he hasn’t had a big game yet, he has logged seven targets and three receptions in the Chiefs two playoff games. That may not seem like much, but we are not looking for a massive stat line here, rather a handful of targets and an opportunity for a big play. Robinson will likely see a lot of Richard Sherman, which on paper is a poor matchup for him. But Sherman struggles against speed, and Robinson can get downfield with the best of them. The 49ers pass coverage was second in the NFL this season, according to PFF, which will force the Chiefs to force the ball to some of their alternative pass catchers.
- Travis Kelce, Chiefs – Kelce is the surest thing among all of the Kansas City skill position players minus Patrick Mahomes. The San Francisco pass rush and coverage are among the best in the NFL and unlike either of the Chiefs previous two playoff matchups. Mahomes will have to get the ball out quickly to avoid Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and the constant pressure he is likely to face. Expect to see an abundance of quick curl routes out of Kelce, which should serve as a chain mover for the Kansas City offense. I expect a similar output from Kelce to his 12 target, 10 reception game against the Texans in the Divisional Round.
- George Kittle, 49ers – Kittle finished the season as the second-highest scoring TE in fantasy football, just behind Kelce. He has the third-most targets per game among TE’s and second-most yards per game. We know how important Kittle is to this 49ers offense, logging the highest target share of any TE at 28.2%. For example, Kelce was 24.4% and Mark Andrews was 24.1% this season. But he has been pretty much non-existent during the playoffs, logging just a 6-4-35-0 stat line combined over the 49ers first two playoff games. Kittle went 7-5-79-0 against the Chiefs last season, and Kansas City hasn’t gotten better at guarding TE’s. The Chiefs surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to TE’s this season and have given up a TD to the TE in both of their playoff wins. A staple of this 49ers offense is TE drag routes that mirror Garoppolo’s presence in the pocket. These routes can go for huge gains when the safeties are preoccupied with the receivers.
- Blake Bell, Chiefs – If you just want to get weird at the TE position, I suppose Bell would have to be our choice. Remember, we have to guard against all kinds of game flows here, and if the Chiefs are either up or down big, we could see more of the backups late in the game. Bell has been logging about 40% of snaps throughout the playoffs anyway and caught a TD against the Texans in the Divisional Round.
- San Francisco 49ers – Most of the contests for Super Bowl 54 are not using DST, and that is a welcome relief, really. But for those that are, the choice is pretty obvious on which to use. The return of DE Dee Ford and LB Kwon Alexander make the 49ers defense even scarier than they were down the stretch this season. When they were healthy in the beginning, this defense was ruining lives.
- Kansas City Chiefs – Of course, the Chiefs will be less used than the 49ers, as they just aren’t as dynamic in the pass rush or coverage departments. The hope here is an interception by ball-hawking honey badger Tyrann Mathieu or a special teams touchdown by Mecole Hardman.
- Robbie Gould, 49ers – Butker has been a better kicker in 2019-20, but Gould would be my preferred play in the Super Bowl for several reasons. The Chiefs offense has been much better in the red zone this season, ranking 13th in TD% in the red zone. Meanwhile, the 49ers are just 21st. When you are such a heavy run-based offense and get into tight quarters like the red zone, more bodies are available to make tackles and disturb the run game. San Francisco has attempted five field goals in their two playoff games to go along with seven extra-points.
- Harrison Butker, Chiefs – Butker missed just four field goals all year while connecting on 90% of his attempts. While I think Gould is a slightly better play, a great offense playing a tough defense is always a good sign for kickers, as those great offenses stall out when the dimensions get tighter.
DFS NFL SUPER BOWL 54 LINEUP BUILDS
Since this is a GPP (tournament) slate, that means it is a time to build multiple lineups. With that in mind, there are no players who are just completely off-limits to us here. It’s all about reading all three game scripts, interpreting them and using the players who will most execute those scripts best.
In keeping with my usual “Core 4” theme, let’s go over four lineup builds I will be using. I’m planning on playing about four to eight total lineups in this slate.
Core Four #1 (From SiriusXM)
- Captain/MVP – Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
- FLEX1 – Raheem Mostert, 49ers
- FLEX2 – Travis Kelce, Chiefs
- FLEX3 – Emmanuel Sanders, 49ers
Core Four #2
- Captain/MVP – Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
- FLEX1 – Tyreek Hill, Chiefs
- FLEX2 – Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers
- FLEX3 – Emmanuel Sanders, 49ers
Core Four #3
- Captain/MVP – Raheem Mostert, 49ers
- FLEX1 – Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
- FLEX2 – Damien Williams, Chiefs
- FLEX3 – George Kittle, 49ers
Core Four #4
- Captain/MVP – Raheem Mostert, 49ers
- FLEX1 – Travis Kelce, Chiefs
- FLEX2 – Tyreek Hill, Chiefs
- FLEX3 – Emmanuel Sanders, 49ers
Check back for our DFS NFL Super Bowl 54 Ownership Projections as we get closer to kickoff!