Welcome to the DFS NFL Cash Game Breakdown, where Jeff Mans breaks down everything you need to know to build safe, high-floor lineups.
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE
No changes to the Core 4’s
ADDED TO PLAYER POOL:
Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions (1.35x/$7500/$6600)
Justin Jackson, RB, Chargers (1.7x/$5900/$4900)
Arizona Cardinals ($4300/$2900)
This has been a week of many emotions for me. No, I am not a political nut job, though I have watched with delight the chaos of our 2020 election. I don’t have a dog in the fight really, but I do love when people that pretend to know or care about something have their worlds crushed. It’s going to be alright folks, I promise you. I am a rapidly aging guy who has been both giddy and scared to death of our political climate in the past, and the one thing I have learned and can say unequivocally is good people always win in the end. It may not always seem like it or appear that way on places like social media, but trust me, that it is true.
My emotions this week are more about some of your reactions to week eight. For the second time this season, I was appalled in surveying our DFS NFL chat room on Sunday to see some people (really just a couple) bashing me for bad analysis. I spent a ridiculous amount of time screenshotting and copy/pasting those comments into documents that I was going to put into this space. I have decided not to do that. In my old age or what I call “wisdom,” I now understand nothing is accomplished by me doing this. Being right isn’t worth a war with a few of you or, more importantly, not worth neglecting the overwhelming majority who have reached out in public and private, showing their support.
The bottom line is I really care about my job. Fifteen years ago, or so, I dreamed of becoming a great fantasy player and making a ton of money in the process. Being a full-time fantasy analyst was never really the plan. Sure enough, I’ve been very fortunate to live that dream. But something happened along the way. By 2017, I had won enough money in fantasy sports to be on easy street. I didn’t really expect to fall in love with the work, but I have. I remember when I was in my early twenties and lived for the fantasy football season. Ted and I would be on the phone, talking draft, trade and matchups with our buddies every single day during the NFL season. I know what it is like to live for this stuff and want to get every advantage possible in asserting your dominance. I love helping people win. It’s an addiction for me, and I take it all very seriously. That is why I get really bent out of shape when my intentions are questioned.
Every week, I spend a total of 15 of the final 72 hours leading up to gametime in front of our people. Whether that is on SiriusXM, in chat, posting the Cash Game Breakdown, and on livestreams. That doesn’t count the copious amounts of social media time, either. The rest of the time is spent either sleeping or researching more for the upcoming week. When I drop dimes like Patrick Mahomes (9%), D’Andre Swift (3%) and Joe Mixon (3%), those are incredible opportunities for all of us. If I didn’t care or if I wanted to mislead people, I would use these for myself and screenshot my wins. Instead, I urge our people here to use these plays in both Cash and GPP’s and never, ever screenshot my own wins. My allegiance is to you, the Elite Mafia.
We are not all going to win every week. This season has been a complete anomaly, as we haven’t had a bad week yet. That is going to change. I will have a bad week or maybe FIVE this season. Don’t ruin the good ones by nitpicking a miss or two. The core four, in particular, are NOT supposed to be your savior players. The core four is a framework of winning DFS lineups. In no way am I trying to select the top four scoring players of the slate. It’s about framing out a proper lineup that will allow you to plug in those top scoring options. I don’t really know how to be clearer about this, as I’ve had the exact same mantra since 2017 when I began primarily focusing on cash game play.
Moving on. This has been a week of extreme distractions for us and for the entire country. While many, including yourselves, may see that as a negative, I have used this week as a positive. There is a lot of news across the NFL and some matchups that have changed dramatically since midweek. While our DFS opponents are all refreshing Twitter and pretending to be political experts and/or handicappers, I have been doing the work. As a result, I am feeling quite good about our chances of keeping that winning streak going. I will do my absolute best to not release any information in this article or otherwise until I am confident it is updated as much as possible. But you have to understand, as this insane year continues, our environment is also changing. The NFL is experiencing a record number of injuries on top of the first pandemic of its time. Now, there are weather concerns in many parts of the country that are wreaking havoc with our matchups and analysis. So, you need to do your job. I will promise to continue to provide the absolute best analysis I can. You need to commit to yourself that you will do as much as you can to stay updated on that information. This includes listening to the Elite Sports Show on SiriusXM, reading this article, watching the Friday Livestream, joining the Saturday chat, reading the update in the article, and/or listening to the SiriusXM Fantasy Football Pregame Show on Sunday mornings. In any of those instances, you will get my heart and soul in fantasy football form every week. If that doesn’t fit your schedule, we have the best team in the business here at Elite Fantasy who are also working their tails off around the clock and are available in article, show or chat form around the clock.
If you don’t want to take that responsibility, fine. But I am not going to play nice with that. We have the best DFS NFL product in the world, and I know it. If you don’t want to take the opportunity that is at your disposal here, that is on you. But if you do, here is another dimepiece for this week in daily fantasy football.
Here is the DFS NFL Cash Game Breakdown for Week 9:
No weather issues this week!
|NAME||TEAM||OPP||DVOA TOTAL||DVOA PASS||DEF VS QB||TOTAL OLINE||PASS OLINE||TIME TO THRW||PACE||ATTS PG||INT AIR YDS||CMP AIR YDS|
WEEK 9 DFS NFL QB BREAKDOWN
Deshaun Watson, Texans (1.2x/$8300/$7100) – What? Did you really think that I forgot about our #AlwaysWatson policy? Well, not when the Texans are playing one of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Jacksonville Jaguars. Watson got off to a slow start this season with matchups against the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers in the first three weeks. But since that time, he is averaging 326 passing yards, 25 rushing yards, 2.75 passing TD’s and 26.54 fantasy points per game. The Jaguars are dead last in overall DVOA, last in DVOA against the pass, have given up the fifth-most passing yards, 10th most passing TD’s and the sixth-most fantasy points to QB’s this season. The one thing that worries me a tad there is that Watson has shown some real rust in coming off of a bye each of the last two years. In those two starts, he has generated just 7.49 fantasy points per game and just seemed “off.” What makes Watson so intriguing on a regular basis though is that the Texans defense is so bad as evidenced by them giving up the third-most points and third-most total yards this season. If Jake Luton, the Jaguars starting QB this week can be below average or better, it will force Watson to keep moving and racking up those fantasy points.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (1.3x/$7700/$6500) – The only unbeaten team left in the NFL travels to Dallas to take on quite possibly the most deteriorated team in the NFL. The Steelers are two-touchdown favorites in this game on the road which means it is expected that they command a big lead. This situation is similar to our Patrick Mahomes game last week except Big Ben is on the road and is $2K less in salary. The Cowboys own the third-worst overall DVOA this season. They have also surrendered the third-most passing TD’s and the seventh most fantasy points to QB’s so far this season. What’s more, the Cowboys defense is dealing with a dramatic loss in talent for a variety of reasons. They traded DE Everson Griffen, released DT Dontari Poe, and placed CB Chidobe Awuzie on IR. There are a lot of ways that the Steelers could put up points against the Cowboys this week. Thus, one of the toughest decisions we will make is whether to use the passing game, the running game, Roethlisberger, combining him with a WR and/or which WR of this trio to use. Because I do not project the Cowboys to be very competitive offensively, I will be unlikely to use both Ben and a Steelers WR in cash games this week.
Justin Herbert, Chargers (1.25x/$7900/$6800) – Anybody who listens to the SXM show regularly knows that as exciting as Herbert has been in his first six starts of his career, I am skeptical whether this performance will continue. Rookie QB’s are simply not my cup of tea, especially in cash games. Herbert grades out extremely well in my model this week to the point I performed a manual override of him, based on my concern of his significant regression. In diving into his value this week, the overwhelming aspect is the matchup with the Raiders. This game comes in well above the Vegas line in my projection and profiles as the highest-scoring game of the weekend. The Raiders defense is the second-worst in overall DVOA, fifth-worst in DVOA against the pass and second-worst in DVOA against the run. Vegas is surrendering the eighth-most passing yards and 10th most fantasy points to QB’s as well. Herbert has 13 TD passes over his last four games while averaging 29.0 fantasy points per game.
Drew Lock, Broncos (1.65x/$7200/$5200) – Last week, I warned against using a value QB, as the weather and the slate pointed to missing on QB meant missing the payline. I did like both Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo but moved away from them as the weekend moved on. As I write this, I am more open to using a value QB at this point and Lock is the best of the group. Lock has five starts this season coming against the Titans (DVOA 17), Steelers (2nd), Patriots (20th), Chiefs (13th) and Chargers (15th). This week he draws the Falcons who are 22nd in overall DVOA, 29th in DVOA against the pass while 8th against the run creating a great pass funnel. The Falcons have allowed the second-most pass attempts, third-most completions, most passing yards, most passing TD’s and most fantasy points to QB’s this season. I am a believer in Drew Lock overall and specifically love when he is forced to play up-tempo and improvise. There is a lot of Brett Favre in him, which unfortunately means there are some huge mistakes, too. But this is the type of game script that should let Lock out of his cage and see him and Matt Ryan go tit for tat. Love this multiplier on Superdraft and both of his salaries allow us to fit one more premium RB or WR into our lineups.
Don’t Forget About…
Russell Wilson, Seahawks (1x/$9000/$7600) – You’re never going to get an argument from me if you want to build your entire lineup around Russell Wilson this season. At this price and on the road in Buffalo is not the ideal setup for Russ. But he is on a historic pace for TD passes right now and will need at least two this week to keep that up. The Bills defense just hasn’t been very good this season ranking 23rd in overall DVOA, 22nd DVOA against the pass and 24th DVOA against the run. Although he is expensive, if the Bills offense shows up as every single other offense has this season against the Seahawks, we could get into a shootout and that is where Russ really cooks. If I can find enough value at other positions, I may wind up just paying all of the way up in cash games once again.
Favorite GPP Play…
Josh Allen, Bills (1.1x/$8200/$7000) – What we are looking for at each position for GPP purposes is a good player in a good situation that is going to be under-owned this week. Allen is fourth in the NFL this season in fantasy points, which isn’t as surprising as to how he has done so. Allen is fifth in the NFL in passing yard while only sixth in rushing yards and fourth in rushing TD’s among QB’s this season. The Seahawks are an incredible pass funnel ranking fifth-worst in overall DVOA, third-worst in DVOA against the pass and sixth-best against the run. Seattle has given up the second-most passing yards, 13th most passing TD’s, fifth-most rushing yards and most rushing TD’s to QB’s this season. There is a good chance that we will once again get Allen in this matchup at under 10% ownership which gives us a real opportunity in tournaments this season.
Bonus SuperDraft Multiplier Play…
Derek Carr, Raiders (1.45x)
|NAME||TEAM||OPP||DVOA TOTAL||DVOA RUSH||DEF VS RB||TOTAL OLINE||RUSH OLINE||EVADED TKLS||BRKWYS||OPP SHARE||RZ TOUCH||GZ TOUCH|
O-LINE/D-LINE MATCHUPS (Mans Model – Point System Scale of 0 – 100)
Main Slate Games Only
- Kansas City Chiefs → Carolina Panthers – 45
- Detroit Lions → Minnesota Vikings – 36
- Buffalo Bills → Seattle Seahawks – 33
- Minnesota Vikings → Detroit Lions – 33
- Houston Texans → Jacksonville Jaguars – 30
- Arizona Cardinals → Miami Dolphins – 21
WEEK 9 DFS NFL RB BREAKDOWN
Dalvin Cook, Vikings (1.15x/$9300/$8200) – Cook is by far the best overall RB on this slate but he is quite expensive. It is a little surprising SuperDraft is still giving him a 1.15x multiplier while Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey are even money. Nevertheless, Cook is second in the NFL in rushing yards despite only playing six games this season. Cook is also second in fantasy points per game averaging a cool 27.0 fantasy points per game. Last season, Cook destroyed the Lions to the tune of 43-204-3 rushing and 4-3-20-0 receiving which equates to 21.7 fantasy points per game. This year, the Lions are even worse against the run, ranking 21st in DVOA against the run. Detroit also is giving up the eighth-most rushing yards, fourth-most rushing TD’s and the second-most fantasy points to RB’s this season.
James Conner, Steelers (1.35x/$8200/$6900) – There is no doubt the Steelers are going to beat up on and likely blow out the Dallas Cowboys this week. This is a terrific game script for Conner and the entire Steelers offense for that matter. Some are going to tell you that the Cowboys defense is a run funnel, but I am not convinced of that. Their secondary is terrible and they really haven’t played in many close games and thus haven’t had to contend with much late-game passing. The Cowboys have had the most rushing attempts against by far this season As a result, they are fourth-worst DVOA against the run, have surrendered the most rushing yards, fourth-most rushing TD’s and the fifth-most fantasy points against RB’s this season. This is going to be a big offensive day for the Steelers but just how much will be Conner and the running game versus Roethlisberger and the passing game.
Chase Edmonds, Cardinals (1.45x/$6700/$6800) – There is not a lot of quality mid-tier or value RB’s this week which makes the injury to Kenyan Drake that much more important. We’ve seen Edmonds continuously look better than Drake in the Arizona offense this season. We saw Edmonds dominate briefly last season after David Johnson went down and before he suffered an ankle injury of his own. Believe it or not, Edmonds is seventh among RB’s this season in receptions despite playing a minimal role behind Kenyan Drake this season. The Dolphins defense has done a great job in recent weeks but has had real problems stopping the run this season. Miami is last in DVOA against the run and sixth-worst against the run per PFF. They are also allowing the fourth-highest rushing yards per attempt this season at 4.9 YPC. With only rookie Eno Benjamin behind him, Edmonds is going to see a lot of work in this high-octane Cardinals offense this week. He’s got a baseline projection of 13.8 points well ahead of his salary with double that in upside too.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs (1.35x/$7000/$6100) – The Chiefs’ gameplan this week is going to be run the ever-loving hell out of the football against the Carolina Panthers. There is a risk of Le’Veon Bell becoming more active this week and I absolutely believe that he will be. But CEH is averaging 60.6% of snaps since Bell has come to town and it doesn’t appear as though he will dip below 50% yet. The Panthers are absolutely awful against the run, yet nobody has really throttled them. I believe Andy Reid and company will here. The Panthers are the seventh-worst DVOA against the run, ninth-worst in overall DVOA and second-worst defense against the run according to PFF. They are also allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per attempt, sixth-most rushing yards overall, second-most rushing TD’s, the most targets, most receptions, second-most receiving yards and third-most fantasy points to RB’s this season. The threat of Bell, game script and price drop here gives us enough confidence to use CEH in cash games this week.
DeeJay Dallas, Seahawks (1.9x/$5100/$5000) – Here is our value RB of the week. Seahawks RB’s Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde have been ruled out, while Travis Homer is questionable once again. Homer played just seven total snaps last week as Dallas racked up 23 touches for a modest 58 total yards. Dallas did get into the end zone twice and caught five balls for a total of 23.8 fantasy points against the 49ers. That is what happens to mediocre running backs who are in great systems. This week he goes up against the Bills who have been very disappointing defensively this season specifically against the run. The Bills are ninth-worst in DVOA against the run and dead last against the run according to PFF. Buffalo has given up the fifth-most rushing yards, fourth-most rushing TD’s and ninth-most fantasy points to RB’s this season. DeeJay will be very popular this week on all sites, as he appears to be the key that makes everything fit in your lineup, which is especially critical on DraftKings.
Don’t Forget About…
James Robinson, Jaguars (1.4x/$7300/$7000) – A much better price on FD than on DK, but Robinson is very much in play on all sites this week. Jacksonville is turning to rookie QB Jake Luton to start this week’s game which suggests the entire gameplan will be around running the football to take the pressure off of Luton. Robinson didn’t do that well in week five against the Texans but did generate 11.0 fantasy points on 18 touches. I have a slightly better script and thus baseline projection (13.8) for J-Rob this week. Much of that is because the Texans own the fourth-worst overall DVOA, sixth-worst DVOA against the run. The Texans have surrendered the second-most rushing yards, second-most rushing TD’s and fourth-most fantasy points to RB’s this season.
Favorite GPP Play…
Christian McCaffrey, Panthers (1x/$9500/$8500) – It appears as though Christian McCaffrey will not be very popular in his return to action this week. This is pretty surprising and just another testament to the fact that DFS players are more recency biased than politicians. He is super expensive as he always is but he is also game script agnostic. There is a reason why backup Mike Davis averaged a fantastic 17.4 fantasy points per game in his place. The Panthers offense centers around CMC and that isn’t going to change in his first week back. This all goes back to our Patrick Mahomes stance a week ago though the ownership might be less since there is an injury and playing time concern here. You will never get CMC at this low of ownership or salary again this season.
Bonus SuperDraft Multiplier Play…
Justin Jackson, Chargers (1.7x)
JK Dobbins, Ravens (1.75x)
|NAME||TEAM||OPP||DVOA TOTAL||DVOA PASS||DEF VS WR||PASS CVG||TGT SHARE||AIR YD SHARE||ADOT||CATCH%||SEPERATION||FPTS PER TGT|
|Laviska Shenault Jr.||JAX||LAC||12.0||14.0||36.7||20.0||0.00||0.11||0.00||0.74||4.00||0.00|
|Odell Beckham Jr.||CLE||CIN||18.0||16.0||35.2||9.0||0.00||0.38||0.00||0.55||2.70||0.00|
WR/CB MATCHUPS (BASED ON PFF RATINGS – % Rating Difference)
- Adam Thielen, Vikings → Jeffrey Okudah, Lions – 57%
- Julio Jones, Falcons → Michael Ojemudia, Broncos – 56%
- Calvin Ridley, Falcons → A.J. Bouye, Broncos – 49%
- DeVante Parker, Dolphins → Dre Kirkpatrick, Cardinals – 43%
- Tyreek Hill, Chiefs → Jeremy Chinn, Panthers – 41%
- Keenan Allen, Chargers → Lamarcus Joyner, Raiders – 40%
- DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals → Byron Jones, Dolphins – 39%
- A.J. Brown, Titans → Jaylon Johnson, Bears – 35%
- Justin Jefferson, Vikings → Amani Oruwariye, Lions – 35%
- Randall Cobb, Texans → Tre Herndon, Jaguars – 33%
- Mecole Hardman, Chiefs → Rasul Douglas, Panthers – 31%
- Tyler Lockett, Seahawks → Taron Johnson, Bills – 29%
WORST COVERAGE CORNERBACKS – WR MATCHUP (Mans Model)
Main Slate Games Only
- Kendall Sheffield, Falcons → Jerry Jeudy, Broncos
- Harrison Hand, Vikings → Marvin Jones, Lions
- Isaiah Oliver, Falcons → KJ Hamler, Broncos
- Vernon Hargreaves, Texans → Laviska Shenault, Jaguars
- Darnay Holmes, Giants → Isaiah Wright, Potatoes
- Donte Jackson, Panthers → Mecole Hardman, Chiefs
- Kris Boyd, Vikings → Marvin Hall, Lions
- Trevon Diggs, Cowboys → Chase Claypool, Steelers
- A.J. Terrell, Falcons → Tim Patrick, Broncos
- Jeff Gladney, Vikings → Danny Amendola, Lions
- Amani Oruwariye, Lions → Justin Jefferson, Vikings
- Nik Needham, Dolphins → Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
- Shaquill Griffin, Seahawks → Stefon Diggs, Bills
- Taron Johnson, Bills → Tyler Lockett, Seahawks
- Tre Herndon, Jaguars → Randall Cobb, Texans
- LaMarcus Joyner, Raiders → Keenan Allen, Chargers
- Eric Murray, Texans → Keelan Cole, Jaguars
- Quinton Dunbar, Seahawks → John Brown, Bills
- C.J. Henderson, Jaguars → Brandin Cooks, Texans
- Tye Smith, Titans → Darnell Mooney, Bears
WEEK 9 DFS NFL WR BREAKDOWN
Jerry Jeudy, Broncos (1.7x/$5700/$4700) – I’ve spoken a lot lately about what is going on with Jeudy and his lack of production despite being the number one weapon on this Broncos offense. He has been seeing extensive bracket coverage which has caused a significant lack of targets. Jeudy is beating his coverage though which is a great sign for his future but not for right now. Well, this week he gets by far the weakest coverage that he’s seen all season. He also has his QB in Drew Lock back who peppered him anyways with 10 targets a week ago. The Falcons safeties rank #99, #110 & #153 in pass coverage this season according to PFF. The best chance the Falcons have to slow down Jeudy is to use rookie AJ Terrell in shadow coverage (they won’t) and Keanu Neal over the top (119.8 QB rating against). Jeudy torched Terrell when these two were in college to the tune of 5-139-1 in the National Championship Game. Sure, Terrell did have a pick-six in the game but not in coverage of Jeudy. This is the breakout game we have been waiting for all season so mount up folks.
Keenan Allen, Chargers (1.35x/$7500/$7000) – Since Justin Herbert took over as the Chargers starting QB, Allen has reached double-digit targets and at least seven receptions in every game except one. In that game, he logged two targets, two receptions and a TD before leaving with an injury after the first drive. Allen is third in the NFL among WR’s in target share, second in targets per game and ninth in red-zone target share this season. As I mentioned in Justin Herbert’s writeup above, this game jumps off of the page in terms of expected fantasy points. Allen should be able to dominate the much smaller LaMarcus Joyner who is my #16 worst CB of the week. Allen had 21 targets, 13 receptions and 139 yards in two meetings against the Raiders last season.
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks (1.25x/$7400/$6800) – I am not listing DK Metcalf this week but as you should know by now, he is always in play. The problem with Metcalf this week, however, is his matchup against Tre’Davious White. We have seen Russell Wilson shy away from the toughest of matchups this season and bludgeon the weaker ones over and over. That brings us to Lockett, who draws the best matchup this week against Taron Johnson who is the #164 rated cornerback out of #190 according to PFF. Johnson is being targeted at a 28.4% clip, seventh highest in the NFL. We are getting this much better matchup, significant salary savings, 0.15 higher multiplier on SD and likely less ownership than Metcalf this week.
Allen Robinson, Bears (1.4x/$6900/$6900) – Robinson is one of the most dependable wide receivers in the NFL and in fantasy football. Robinson is 10th in the NFL in target share, second in the league in targets, seventh in receptions, sixth in receiving yards and eighth in fantasy points this season. I’ve made a small fortune over the years using WR’s against Malcolm Butler because so many folks don’t realize that Butler has a real difficult time against downfield receivers. Though A-Rob isn’t a speed demon or anything, he is a super-intelligent route runner who knows how to get his defender turned around. Nick Foles has been pushing the ball downfield lately and that idea will work well against these Titans CB’s.
Stefon Diggs, Bills (1.3x/$7600/$7400) – This game has the highest expected total of the weekend though I don’t believe it will quite live up to that measure. What we do know is that the Seahawks will be able to score and that the Bills offense will be forced to keep up. That is the best news for Diggs, who is the overwhelming primary target for Josh Allen in the passing game. Diggs is sixth in the NFL in target share this season. He is also fifth in targets per game, third in air yards and ninth in air yards percentage this season. The Seahawks are third-worst DVOA against the pass and fifth-worst overall DVOA. They have also given up the most targets, most receptions, most receiving yards, sixth-most receiving TD’s and the most fantasy points to WR’s this season.
Marvin Jones, Lions (1.85x/$6100/$5100) – When this week began, I figured that Marvin Jones would be a chalk play against the Vikings this week. Kenny Golladay is out and the Vikings secondary is in pure shambles. But it appears as though he will be lightly owned which comes as great news for us. Well, that is assuming that Matthew Stafford is activated from the IR/Covid list, as he is expected to be. Jones disappointed early this season when Golladay was out but reflecting on those matchups we see that he was shadowed by Kyle Fuller, Jaire Alexander and Patrick Peterson. The Vikings would sign a chunk of any of those CB’s shit over the trash they are rolling out this week. Jones will line up against CB Harrison Hand this week who is the #170 rated CB out of #190 according to PFF this season. Last season, Jones destroyed the Vikings when they were good, scoring four TD’s in their week seven matchup. While that is of course unlikely, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a huge effort out of him this week.
Don’t Forget About…
Julio Jones, Falcons (1.1x/$8200/$7200) – No Calvin Ridley means we should see all of the Julio Jones targets this week in a game that will play faster than normal. Since he’s got healthy, Julio has been back to his massive targets and yards receiver averaging a cool 10 targets, eight receptions, 124 yards and 24.1 fantasy points per game. He’s expensive but going up against an inexperienced CB in Michael Ojemudia in a high scoring game could absolutely break the slate this week.
Favorite GPP Play…
Terry McLaurin, Potatoes (1.55x/$7200/$6500) – I hate this game but love the matchup here for McLaurin. He will be shadowed by CB James Bradberry who is a solid coverage guy but has real trouble with speedy WR’s that can break out of his grasp in press coverage and get deep. That is Terry McLaurin’s game. Last season these two squared off and McLaurin had his worst game of the year catching just two passes for eight yards. But he ran a season-low in routes (18) and had left the game temporarily with a calf injury. I doubt that any of our opponents will pick up on this and thus we should get him at five percent or less this week.
Bonus SuperDraft Multiplier Play…
Justin Jefferson, Vikings (1.5x)
Diontae Johnson, Steelers (1.55x)
|NAME||TEAM||OPP||DVOA TOTAL||DEF VS TE||SLOT%||TGT SHARE||AIR YD SHARE||ADOT||CATCH%||SEPERATION||FPTS PER TGT|
WEEK 9 DFS NFL TE BREAKDOWN
Travis Kelce, Chiefs (1x/$8000/$7200) – Even amongst the higher priced TE’s Travis Kelce stands out as an amazingly consistent performer. He has outscored every other TE by a minimum of 50 points already this year. Kelce leads all TE’s in targets, receptions, receiving yards, touchdowns and fantasy points. Last week, I was right on about paying up for TE’s but of course, I missed completely in choosing Kittle and/or Waller over Kelce. Should I go ahead and curse Kelce this week by locking him into our core four? The only thing that gives me any pause is the Panthers defense is much worse against the run than the pass. Still, Kelce has had less than six targets and 50 receiving yards just once this season.
Darren Waller, Raiders (1.2x/$6400/$5800) – Another of my TE misses from last week that is once again in a great spot in week nine. Waller is physically dominant compared to the LB who will be in charge of covering him. Chargers LB Kyzir White has the third-lowest coverage grade according to PFF. The Chargers have allowed the eighth-most TD’s and 11th most fantasy points to TE’s this season. Waller is second among NFL TE’s in targets, receptions, fantasy points and third in receiving yards this season.
Noah Fant, Broncos (1.4x/$5800/$4600) – Fant is the only thing that will get in the way of my Jerry Jeudy love affair this week. If Fant had stayed healthy all season, he would rank as a top-three TE in targets, receptions, receiving yards and fantasy points. He has been the clear second option in the Broncos passing game and with Jeudy seeing double coverage, he has been the first option quite a bit too. The Falcons secondary is awful but there are few options to target against them this week. That is wonderful for acquiring target share, especially when you can do so with a TE. Atlanta has given up the seventh-most targets, the most receptions, second-most receiving yards, the most TD’s and the most fantasy points to TE’s this season.
Don’t Forget About…
Evan Engram, Giants (1.65x/$5400/$4300) – This is where it starts getting sketchy. Engram fizzled three weeks ago against the Potatoes but has been heavily involved ever since. He has 19 targets, 11 receptions and 107 yards over his last two games. Engram does own the fifth-highest target share among TE’s, seventh-highest slot rate and 10th most air yards this season. The big difference between this matchup and the one three weeks ago is the Potatoes lost safety Landon Collins. That leaves only journeyman LB Kevin Pierre-Louis and safety Deshazor Everett over the top of Engram this week. This should be a real focus of the Giants offense to get Engram the ball in this matchup.
Favorite GPP Play…
Jonnu Smith, Titans (1.35x/$5700/$3900) – To be clear, I really don’t have a clear GPP TE this week. Every lineup I run is better with one of the higher-end players at this position. Jonnu started the season super hot, scoring five touchdowns in his first four games while averaging seven targets per game. But he has just eight targets over his last three games which has totaled a combined four receptions for 51 yards. This disappointing production will drive his ownership down considerably as Smith is essentially an afterthought here this week. But this matchup is a good one for him. The Bears defense gets after the passer quickly and that will force Ryan Tannehill to need to get rid of the ball quickly on Sunday. That means more short passes. Tannehill is averaging 9.2 yards per target when throwing to the outside whereas it’s only 6.1 yards per target to the TE’s. This is a good spot for him to get back into the offense and be Tannehill’s chain mover against Chicago this week.
Bonus SuperDraft Multiplier Play…
Hayden Hurst, Falcons (1.7x)
Pittsburgh Steelers ($5000/$4900) – The obvious choice if you can afford them. We are going to be targeting against the Cowboys quite a bit over the rest of the season but this week they will be starting a QB who has never started an NFL game before. The Steelers are the best defense in the NFL. They are number one in overall DVOA, overall defense per PFF, fifth in points against, third in total yards against, first in sacks, first in sack percentage and second in takeaways this season. The Cowboys have committed the most turnovers and fourth in sacks allowed on offense this season.
Washington Potatoes ($4700/$3400) – I’ve said since before the season that this Washington defense was going to be good this season. They have not let me down. From strictly fantasy perspective, the Potatoes DST has scored the 12th most points this season. They are third-best overall DVOA, first in DVOA against the pass, fourth in overall defense according to PFF, second in total yards allowed, third in sacks and second in sack percentage this season. The Potatoes have at least one interception in each of the last four games and in six of their seven games this season. The Giants own the worst offensive line in the NFL this season by just about every metric there is for us to use. The Giants have given up the fifth-most sacks, fifth-highest sack percentage and third-most turnovers this season. The Potatoes are priced up this week and rightfully so, but this is as good of a matchup as it gets for them.
New York Giants ($4100/$2700) – Oh yeah, the other side of that game is actually pretty darn good, too. The Giants defense has played really well this season and unlike Washington, I never saw this one coming. The Giants are really good against the run this season. They are sixth-best DVOA against the run, second-best against the run per PFF, and have the fifth-least rushing yards against this season. If you can stop the run against Washington, you have a shot because Kyle Allen isn’t going to really make anybody hurt through the air. Best of all, this is a great discount for a good defense that will certainly be a part of a very low scoring game.
Baltimore Ravens ($4500/$3500) – The Ravens are the most talented defense in the NFL. But, after a 14-win season in 2019, they are playing a real difficult schedule here in 2020. The Colts aren’t a pushover by any means, but without T.Y. Hilton and no real downfield threats, there are little teeth to their offense. Baltimore is fourth-best overall DVOA, first in DVOA against the run, fifth-best against the run according to PFF, and has given up the fourth-fewest total yards this season. The Ravens have also given up the second-fewest points, are fourth in takeaways, second in pressures, second in sacks and third in sack percentage.
WEEK 9 CORE FOUR
SUPERDRAFT CORE 4
QB – Deshaun Watson – 1.2x
RB – DeeJay Dallas – 1.9x
WR – Jerry Jeudy – 1.7x
TE – Travis Kelce – 1x
FANDUEL CORE 4
QB – Deshaun Watson – $8300
RB – Chase Edmonds – $6700
WR – Jerry Jeudy – $5700
TE – Travis Kelce – $8000
DRAFTKINGS CORE 4
QB – Deshaun Watson – $7100
RB – DeeJay Dallas – $5000
WR – Jerry Jeudy – $4700
TE – Travis Kelce – $7200
Join me Saturday night in the DFS NFL CHAT for last-minute questions!