Welcome to the DFS NFL Cash Game Breakdown, where Mans breaks down everything you need to know (and plenty of things you probably don’t!) to build safe, high-floor lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel!
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE
FanDuel Core 4: Kyler Murray, Malcolm Brown, Odell Beckham, Austin Hooper
DraftKings Core 4: Kyler Murray, Odell Beckham, Austin Hooper, NY Jets DST
Added To Player Pool: Tevin Coleman, Dede Westbrook & Paul Richardson (only if Xavien Howard is ACTIVE)
I’ve purposely stayed away from the chat room this week. I’ve learned my lesson in getting caught up with trying to please every last person in every possible way. Last week was a tremendously good week in which everything except Julio Jones (one of, if not, the best WR in the NFL) and Golden Tate (a minimum priced misstep by FD that allowed us to pay up for whatever high-end player(s) we wanted) went right. Still, I heard some folks weren’t able to get over the enormous paylines, despite using the core four, which of course gets blamed for the demise. If I get too close to those flames, not only would I get burned, but it would take me off track of what is most important and that is the work.
So, we are on to week six. This is one of the smallest main slates of the entire season because we have four teams in Buffalo, Chicago, Indianapolis and Oakland that are off as well as another stupid London Series game, this time between Carolina and Tampa Bay. Unlike last week though, this game is being played at 9:30 AM ET, and thus, it is not on the main slate of DFS contests. Before you start crying in your cereal because you can’t play the beloved Christian McCaffrey, understand this is a very good thing.
If McCaffrey was on this slate, he would have been 60%+ owned without any doubt. Those of you nodding your heads and complaining about it just don’t understand how much this hurts your ability to win in DFS. You see, good players don’t want obvious plays that you have to make a decision on every week. It’s bad enough when it’s Will Dissly or Tyler Eifert, but as we learned with Todd Gurley last year, having to pay $11K-$12K for a player who will have such high ownership that he won’t move the needle is destructive.
Yeah, Todd Gurley, remember him? For those new to the DFS NFL game, Todd Gurley was Christian McCaffrey of 2018. We were all paying $12K for him because he was breaking every record there was in fantasy football. If you didn’t use him, you lost, plain and simple. But then, something happened. Gurley started to break down, drew fewer and fewer touches and eventually missed the last two games of the season. Those of us who identified that Gurley couldn’t keep up that pace of production were paid handsomely for our service. DFS NFL got very easy for a while late last year because we had many folks paying $11K for a deteriorating RB. I am NOT saying that we’re going to be fading CMC when he is on the main slate again; just want you all to understand that certain pace of production is simply impossible.
We’ve got three games that will draw an overwhelming amount of the ownership this week. The Texans/Chiefs game is going to be very popular with the Deshaun Watson/Patrick Mahomes decision weighing heavily on many people’s minds. But are we worried about Mahomes struggles over the last two weeks and/or the Texans likely attacking Kansas City on the ground? I got you.
The Falcons and Cardinals game also has a real high total with two of the worst defenses in the NFL matching up against explosive playmakers in the desert. This will be the game the faux contrarian players will think is sneaky. Will David Johnson have a full complement of touches despite a back injury? Are we going back to Julio Jones in the ultimate act of political defiance? Stay tuned.
Then there is the battle of NFL West titans in the 49ers/Rams. This game also has an expected total of over 50 points despite the San Francisco defense being #1 in the NFL going into the week. So, can the 49ers slow down this passing game of Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp? Which of these 49ers RBs can we use against a Rams defense that has given up the 7th most fantasy points to RBs? Keep reading.
This is not an easy slate to cover. The automatic plays are either off or not on the main slate, while Vegas is pointing all of the followers to three different contests. Meanwhile, those of us who have been in the lab all week not getting caught up in any drama have quite a bit of “other” plays that are likely to be significantly underowned this week. There is opportunity all over this 10-game Sunday slate of games; it’s just a matter of finding out which ones belong together. With that, I now present you this week’s holy grail of cash games.
Here is the DFS NFL Cash Game Breakdown for Week 6:
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (London) – Typical London weather in October, as there will be light rain on and off throughout the day with temperatures in the mid-40’s. Fortunately, the winds are light at just 5-8 MPH.
Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns – No precipitation, temperatures in the low-60’s are all good. But it will be windy with steady winds at 15 MPH and gusts up to 20 MPH. I don’t worry about wind until they are steady over 20 MPH or gusts over 25 MPH.
|NAME||TEAM||OPP||DVOA TOTAL||DVOA PASS||DEF VS QB||TOTAL OLINE||PASS OLINE||TIME TO THRW||PACE||ATTS PG||INT AIR YDS||CMP AIR YDS|
WEEK 6 DFS NFL QB BREAKDOWN
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($9200/$7500) – Damn. It would have been nice to get even a small discount on Mahomes this week coming off back-to-back disappointing efforts the last two weeks. But, we all know that the comeback game is going to happen and sooner rather than later. The Texans have given up the third-most passing yards to QBs this season and are the 10th worst pass coverage team according to PFF. Make no mistake, Mahomes, like many absolute stud players are always in play as either premium or smart contrarian plays. At this price though, we are going to need more than our usual 20 point target out of the QB position. The benchmarks we need out of Mahomes this week include 325 yards, 3 TDs and 10 rushing yards. Getting to those numbers should be rather easy if the Texans can put up points on the Chiefs defense. If that happens, this game shoots out and Mahomes will be the guy to pull Kansas City back and over the top. If we can find the value RBs & WRs this week, make Mahomes a priority in your cash game builds.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens ($8200/$6900) – We’ve witnessed Lamar Jackson absolutely stomp out defenses from bad teams such as the Dolphins, Cardinals and Browns this season. This week, he draws a home game against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals, who have given up the eighth-most fantasy points to QBs this season and have the second-worst DVOA against the pass. What’s more, the Bengals have given up the second-most rushing yards to QBs this season and surrendered 119 rushing yards to Jackson in their meeting last year. It’s his rushing ability that really protects his cash game value, as he can rack up the points in a variety of different ways. Be sure to check on the status of WR Marquise Brown this week, because if he doesn’t play, I’d lower expectations for Jackson in the passing game.
Matt Ryan, Falcons ($8100/$6400) – Ryan is tied with Jared Goff for the most pass attempts (222), second in passing yards (1655), third in completion percentage (70.3), second in passing TDs (11) and sixth in fantasy points among QBs so far this season. By now, we all know the Falcons defense is a sieve that will leak points all over the field, which puts the pressure on Matt Ryan and the offense to keep them in the game. The Cardinals defense has allowed the second-most passing TDs (12), sixth-most passing yards (1420), the third-most fantasy points to QBs and have the sixth-worst DVOA against the pass this season. While Lamar Jackson gives us the rushing yards base, the game flow could get out of hand late and force him to simply hand off going out. Ryan doesn’t have the game flow concerns, as the expected total for this game has gone up three full points since it opened and both defenses are going to give up big plays all day on Sunday.
Kyler Murray, Cardinals ($7700/$6500) – I just told you about Matt Ryan and the positive game flow he will likely benefit from on Sunday, and everything there obviously goes for Kyler Murray as well. Remember those stats I rattled off for Matt Ryan? Well, Murray is fourth in the NFL in pass attempts (201), 11th in passing yards (1324), second in rushing yards by a QB (206) and has the eighth-most fantasy points among QBs this season. The Falcons have the fourth-worst pass coverage according to PFF, the third-worst DVOA against the pass and ninth-worst overall defense according to PFF this season. Atlanta has also given up the second-most passing TDs (12, tied with the Cardinals), second-most rushing TDs from the QB and has given up the most fantasy points to QBs this season. Murray is running a lot more now, and the Falcons just don’t have the athletes to keep up with him once he gets loose. This is a perfect high floor and high ceiling situation.
Don’t Forget About…
Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers ($7200/$5700) – Love the DK price here with Jimmy going up against the Rams. This 49ers/Rams game has great potential of shooting out with two very talented offenses doing battle. I prefer Garoppolo to Jared Goff because of the price decrease and also because of this 49ers defense that has been dominating so far this season. The Rams defense? Not so much. The Rams have allowed four touchdown passes in each of their last two games to the Seahawks and the Buccaneers. Garoppolo threw for 292 yards and 2 TDs in his first start against Wade Phillips’ secondary back in 2017, and this version has bigger names but is playing clearly worse. The Niners will establish the running game with all three of their top backs, but the way to really keep up with Sean McVay’s offense is to throw the football.
Favorite GPP Play…
Kirk Cousins, Vikings ($7000/$5200) – With just one positive game, Kirk Cousins and this Vikings offense threw all over the Giants for 306 yards and 2 TDs. We understand the Vikings are a run-first offense with Dalvin Cook, and that is not going to change. But Cousins has always been very efficient in play-action, which can create those longer pass plays down the field. These play-fakes can cause havoc with any secondary, but the Eagles are especially thin and poor in their defensive backfield. Philly has surrendered the fifth-most passing yards and ninth-most passing TDs so far this season. Cousins has thrown for 300+ yards and an 80+% completion rate in each of his last two meetings with the Eagles, and both of those versions were better than what they are running out there right now.
|NAME||TEAM||OPP||DVOA TOTAL||DVOA RUSH||DEF VS RB||TOTAL OLINE||RUSH OLINE||EVADED TKLS||BRKWYS||OPP SHARE||RZ TOUCH||GZ TOUCH|
WEEK 6 DFS NFL RB BREAKDOWN
Malcolm Brown, Rams ($4800/$4300) – If this was Todd Gurley at $7100, I would not be all that interested because of the matchup. But a $4K RB allows us so much freedom with our lineup builds that it is well worth the likely mediocre effort we will get out of Brown. The 49ers haven’t given up much on the ground this season, but Nick Chubb did average 5.5 yards per carry last week so they are not indestructible. My baseline projection for Malcolm Brown here is 15-64 on the ground with 2-15 receiving. That is well above our 2x goal for cash game purposes. The Rams have the most rushing TDs (8) in the NFL this year, which is an average of 1.6 per game. Thus, that baseline with a tremendous opportunity for a TD is a lock button play for everybody in DFS this week. Take the free square, figure out which top-end RB/WR you want to get with the savings and cash in all of your contests.
Chris Carson, Seahawks ($7200/$6000) – The problem with RB this week is we have so few backs in plus matchups that catch the football. Carson does have 15 receptions though this year, which is 16th among RBs, and the late week injury to Rashaad Penny could help increase that this week against the Browns. Carson has 54 touches over the last two weeks, which includes five catches and the game-winning TD reception last week. The Browns have given up the sixth-most rushing yards, third-worst rushing yards per attempt surrendered and have given up the ninth-most fantasy points to RBs this season.
Mark Ingram, Ravens ($7500/$6600) – Ideally, I don’t want to play non pass-catching RBs that are over $7K on FD. That was a lesson we learned earlier this season, but I do think this is a special case. The Ravens have the most rushing attempts of any team in the NFL and are also fifth in rushing yards per attempt at 5.3. Ingram is averaging 5.1 yards per attempt himself, which gives him a very good chance at reaching the century mark in this plus plus matchup. The Bengals are sixth-worst in DVOA against the run, have the sixth-worst yards per carry surrendered, have given up the second-most rushing yards, the second-most rushing TDs against, the second-most receptions to RBs, the most receiving yards to RBs and the most fantasy points surrendered to RBs this season. If that isn’t enough to get you excited about Ingram, sit this one out.
Leonard Fournette, Jaguars ($7300/$6700) – I really hate that so many of these RBs are all about the same price on both sites. Fournette is logging a heavy workload this season. The only RB in the league who has a higher opportunity share than Fournette (90.6%) is Christian McCaffrey (92.4%). Fournette is second in the NFL among RBs with 115 touches, is ninth in the NFL with 5.4 rushing yards per attempt and eighth in fantasy points among RBs this season. With a better passing game in Jacksonville, they are moving the ball and opening up running and passing lanes for Fournette.
Alvin Kamara, Saints ($7900/$8000) – A late-week ankle injury is all that kept Kamara away from being one of our top two running back options here this week. It appears, as of this writing, Kamara is going to be OK and will play in full on Sunday against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is dead last in DVOA against the run, has given up the most yards per carry (5.5), fifth-most rushing yards per game, fifth-most rushing TDs and has surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs this season. This Saints offense runs through Alvin Kamara with a side of Michael Thomas these days, and with the Jaguars coming off a game in which they gave up 285 rushing yards to the Panthers, Kamara is in a smash spot in week six.
Carlos Hyde, Texans ($6000/$4400) – One of the better affordable options at RB this week. The gameplan for every team when they face the Chiefs has got to be run the hell out of the football in order to rest your defense and keep Patrick Mahomes off of the field. Hyde was added to the Texans roster just before week one but is already 20th in the NFL in touches among RBs and has 37 touches over the last two weeks. The Chiefs are third-worst DVOA against the run, have given up the second-most yards rushing this season and the second-worst rushing yards per attempt. There could be better cheap RBs that open up due to injuries this week, but Hyde is a fine option for us if deciding to pay down at the position.
Don’t Forget About…
*If you ever forget about Ezekiel Elliott or Dalvin Cook, you are out of your mind. If you can fit their salary into your cash lineup, do it and don’t look back. These are never bad plays, just suboptimal sometimes.
Le’Veon Bell, Jets ($6800/$6400) – The Cowboys just got destroyed on the ground by the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Jones so it can be expected the Jets will try to emulate that plan here this week. No matter what Bell does on the ground though, the real value and upside will come in the passing game. He is averaging just under seven receptions per game with all but one of those games coming without starting QB Sam Darnold. With Darnold back, the offense should move better with an emphasis on getting the ball in the hands of the Jets playmakers. The Cowboys have given up the second-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards to RBs this season.
Favorite GPP Play…
David Johnson, Cardinals ($6900/$7600) – If he was healthy all week, he would have been a primary play for many DFS players this week. But his lingering back injury is a problem because it is more of a pain tolerance thing so he could bow out of this game early. But, it is a tremendous spot for DJ and the entire Cardinals offense, as this game has the second-highest expected total of the slate and many will be scared off because of the injury.
|NAME||TEAM||OPP||DVOA TOTAL||DVOA PASS||DEF VS WR||PASS CVG||TGT SHARE||AIR YD SHARE||ADOT||CATCH%||SEPERATION||FPTS PER TGT|
|Laviska Shenault Jr.||JAX||MIN||0.0||0.0||47.1||27.0||0.00||0.11||0.00||0.74||4.00||0.00|
|Odell Beckham Jr.||CLE||TEN||0.0||0.0||45.1||23.0||0.00||0.38||0.00||0.55||2.70||0.00|
WR/CB MATCHUPS (BASED ON PFF RATINGS – % Rating Difference 2019)
- Amari Cooper, Cowboys → Trumaine Johnson, Jets – 38%
- Terry McLaurin, Redskins → Xavien Howard, Dolphins – 37% (Shadow)
- Michael Gallup, Cowboys → Darryl Roberts, Jets – 34%
- Byron Pringle, Chiefs → Lonnie Johnson, Texans – 29% (this will be DeMarcus Robinson, not Pringle)
- Will Fuller, Texans → Charvarius Ward, Chiefs – 27%
- DeAndre Hopkins, Texans → Bashaud Breeland, Chiefs – 27%
- Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals → Damontae Kazee, Falcons – 27%
- Michael Thomas, Saints → Tre Herndon, Jaguars – 26% (A.J. Bouye will be on Thomas)
- Christian Kirk, Cardinals → Isaiah Oliver, Falcons – 26% (Kirk plays inside, so Damiere Byrd will be here)
- Alshon Jeffery, Eagles → Xavier Rhodes, Vikings – 22% (Shadow)
- D.J. Moore, Panthers → Vernon Hargreaves, Buccaneers – 22%
- Trey Quinn, Redskins → Eric Rowe, Dolphins – 17% (won’t be Rowe, Jomal Wiltz will cover Quinn)
- Tajae Sharpe, Titans → Isaac Yiadom, Broncos – 17%
- Davante Adams, Packers → Rashaan Melvin, Lions – 16% (laughable; if Adams plays, Slay will shadow)
- Marquise Brown, Ravens → Dre Kirkpatrick, Bengals – 16%
WORST COVERAGE CORNERBACKS – WR MATCHUP (Mans Model)
- P.J. Williams, Saints → Dede Westbrook, Jaguars
- Eric Rowe, Dolphins → Paul Richardson, Redskins
- Darryl Roberts, Jets → Michael Gallup, Cowboys
- Lonnie Johnson Jr., Texans → DeMarcus Robinson, Chiefs
- Fabian Moreau, Redskins → Albert Wilson, Dolphins
- Isaiah Oliver, Falcons → Damiere Byrd, Cardinals
- Dre Kirkpatrick, Bengals → Marquise Brown, Ravens (Brown is questionable)
- Jomal Wiltz, Dolphins → Trey Quinn, Redskins
- Tre Flowers, Seahawks → Odell Beckham, Browns
- Kendall Sheffield, Falcons → KeeSean Johnson, Cardinals
- Sidney Jones, Eagles → Adam Thielen, Vikings
- T.J. Carrie, Browns → Tyler Lockett, Seahawks
- Bashaud Breeland, Chiefs → Will Fuller, Texans
- Sean Murphy-Bunting, Buccaneers → Jarius Wright, Panthers
- Desmond King, Chargers → JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers
WEEK 6 DFS NFL WR BREAKDOWN
Odell Beckham, Browns ($7600/$6800) – Well, fuck it. This is going to be the make or break player for me in week six, and it honestly makes me nauseous. I don’t like Beckham as a player; he’s immensely overrated and is legitimately not good at catching the football with two hands. So, why am I recommending him this week? There are many factors actually. The Seahawks have gotten away with extremely soft coverage so far this season, giving up an average of 4.6 yards of separation per route, second-worst in the NFL. A deeper dive shows the CBs of Seattle really struggle at covering receivers with Beckham’s skill set. OBJ has been targeted 43 times this year with the most coming on Outs, Slants, Go & Comeback routes. The Slants and Go routes are what we love against Tre Flowers, who gives up a passer rating of 107.8 on those routes and has surrendered the 11th most yards after the catch in the NFL this year – 88% of which on those two routes. Shaq Griffin, on the other side, also struggles with slant routes and has had most of his completions on Out routes this season. I don’t expect a shootout in Cleveland this week, but I do expect the Browns offense to get back on track and do so featuring Beckham at all costs. His price has just gotten too cheap compared to what his skills (big plays, run after the catch), volume and matchup would suggest. In cash games, I rarely will dive onto the OBJ grenade, but this week has a few obvious plays and fewer games, which forces us to either be a little different or just accept being part of the flock.
DeAndre Hopkins, Texans ($8400/$7400) – You can be disappointed all you want, but the fact is, Hopkins is seventh in the NFL in targets (44), eighth in receptions (31), 22nd in receiving yards and 16th in fantasy points among WRs. For the level of disappointment and the discount we are seeing (especially on DK), these are really solid numbers. We know he will have one of those huge games here soon, and there is very good reason to believe it will happen this week. Last time Nuk played the Chiefs, he only caught four balls, but three of them were TDs in a game that saw 76 total points. This week’s contest has the highest expected total on the board, which means plenty of passing and a perfect game script for a star wide receiver to remind everybody of why they drafted him in the first round six weeks ago.
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks ($6300/$6400) – Lockett is 10th in fantasy points scored among WR yet is the 22nd highest priced WR on FD this week. He has shown he can have both high volume producing weeks and high efficiency scoring weeks. As of now, it looks like both Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams will return to action for the Browns, which is good but isn’t a big negative for the Seahawks passing game. In fact, it is a pretty good thing for Lockett, who will be squaring off against my #12 worst CB in the NFL in T.J. Carrie.
Tyreek Hill, Chiefs ($7400/$6900) – I am quite worried about Tyreek returning to action after such a significant injury, but if he is cleared by the medical staff and the coaches are willing to take whatever risk of reinjury there might be, then so am I. He is way underpriced here this week, especially considering the 55-point expected total and Sammy Watkins not playing. Maybe some forget that Hill is the primary target for the NFL MVP QB Patrick Mahomes, averaged 21 fantasy points per game last season and was an $8K WR in DFS in week one.
D.J. Chark, Jaguars ($6500/$5500) – Chark is in the middle of an epic breakout season that has both he and QB Gardner Minshew terrorizing opposing secondaries. Chark has scored in all but one game so far this season and has seen at least five targets and 55 yards in each of his games with Minshew at the helm. What’s most impressive about this breakout are the defenses and cornerbacks he’s been doing it against. This week, the Jags draw the Saints, who have given up the fifth-most receiving yards, fifth-most TDs and sixth-most fantasy points against WRs this season.
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals ($5600/$6100) – Let’s all just keep playing Fitzgerald for this incredibly low price each week until they finally raise his salary. Fitz is seventh in the NFL in targets (44), 11th in receptions (29), 19th in receiving yards (358) and 15th in fantasy points among WRs this season. Now, he gets a matchup with the fourth-best CB on the Atlanta Falcons, a team that is third-worst in DVOA against the pass and fourth-worst in pass coverage according to PFF.
Don’t Forget About…
*If you ever forget about Julio Jones, Michael Thomas or Cooper Kupp, you are out of your mind. If you can fit their salary into your cash lineup, do it and don’t look back. These are never bad plays, just suboptimal sometimes.
Courtland Sutton, Broncos ($5900/$5000) – Sometimes, I feel like the only person in the world that is paying attention to EVERY game during the NFL season. How is Sutton so low owned every week and only see his price tick up by $100-$200? Sutton has elite level ball skills; something Joe Flacco has identified and has grown confident in him, targeting him at least seven times in every game so far this season. This week, he faces a tough but beatable Titans secondary where he’ll draw the coverage of Malcolm Butler. Butler has been giving up the fifth-most receiving yards to WRs this season.
Favorite GPP Play…
Stefon Diggs, Vikings ($5800/$5900) – Last week, it was Adam Thielen getting his squeaky wheel greased, and this week, I believe it will be Diggs’ turn. The Eagles secondary has given up the seventh-most receiving yards, fifth-most receiving TDs and fifth-most fantasy points to WRs this season. In two games last season against the Eagles, Diggs posted a stat line of 23-18-161-0 with another 25 yards rushing. This game has sneaky shootout potential, and that makes several of these Vikings & Eagles receivers great GPP plays this week.
|NAME||TEAM||OPP||DVOA TOTAL||DEF VS TE||SLOT%||TGT SHARE||AIR YD SHARE||ADOT||CATCH%||SEPERATION||FPTS PER TGT|
WEEK 6 DFS NFL TE BREAKDOWN
Austin Hooper, Falcons ($6400/$5000) – The balancing act will be selecting where to get your exposure to this Falcons offense, and for that matter, who on the Cardinals to bring it back with in this game. As most of you know, I pretty much despise the idea of “any TE against the Cardinals” premise because it isn’t that easy. What most people don’t understand about why the Cardinals have trouble guarding the TE is because they have trouble guarding the slot. Last week, I wasn’t touching Tyler Eifert as long as he was under 40% ownership because he rarely lines up in the slot. Sure enough, Auden Tate, the Bengals slot WR caught a TD instead. Austin Hooper is third in the NFL among TEs with a slot rate of 42.5% so the matchup holds true. Hooper is second among NFL TEs in receptions with 34, third in receiving yards with 363 and is the top fantasy scoring TE so far this season with 16.9 points per game. Yet, his salary is still just the fourth highest among TEs this week, making him the obvious top play on the board this week.
Zach Ertz, Eagles ($6600/$5400) – The Eagles and Vikings are becoming regular rivals, as they have met each of the last three seasons with their 2017 meeting coming in the NFC Championship Game. In the last two meetings against the Vikings, Ertz has racked up a stat line of 19-18-203-1, which equates to 22 fantasy points per game. He’s had at least seven targets in every single game this season with his worst production being a 4-64 output against the Lions in week three. The Vikings have given up the fourth-most receptions to TEs so far this season, though, the yardage total is just 10th most on the year. Ertz is second among NFL TEs in targets with 45, fourth in receptions with 29, fifth in receiving yards with 312 and sixth in fantasy points with 13.6 points per game.
Mark Andrews, Ravens ($6300/$4800) – Andrews is a great play this week for a variety of reasons, but the best of them is because he is extremely contrarian. You may wonder how a player who is producing on his level can be “extremely contrarian,” but it all comes down to the price tag. Andrews is just $100 less than Austin Hooper on FD and $200 on DK. For that little of a difference, most people are going to pay for the best of the best matchups, and that is Hooper vs. Arizona. But for all the publicity the Cardinals get for being bad against the TE, the Bengals have been this bad for years. The Bengals are second-worst in DVOA against the TE, according to Football Outsiders, and Andrews owns, by far, the best matchup advantage over Bengals S Shawn Williams (37%) this week.
Noah Fant, Broncos ($4500/$2900) – Here is your pay down option if you just want to bottom out the price as far as possible at TE this week. Last week’s production was awful – there is no doubt – but the reason we liked Fant a bit coming into this season was that Joe Flacco has the third-highest target rate to TE (24.3%) of any starting QB in the NFL. In fact, last week, Flacco targeted the TE six times out of his 20 pass attempts (30%) even though only one went to Fant himself. The Titans own the seventh-worst DVOA against the TE this season. They have also given up the second-most TDs (4) and second-most fantasy points to TEs so far this season. You’re not going to get a ton of production out of Fant, but a 3-50 effort with a better than average chance at a TD is worth it at this price when we are trying to afford shares of the Texans, Chiefs, Falcons and Cardinals.
Don’t Forget About…
*If you ever forget about Travis Kelce, you are out of your mind. If you can fit his salary into your cash lineup, do it and don’t look back. But this week is going to be tough in choosing who to and who not to spend up for at TE.
George Kittle, 49ers ($6500/$5200) – Kittle is another TE who is going to get passed over a bunch in favor of Austin Hooper this week because of his salary proximity. Kittle destroyed the Rams in both of his meetings with them last year, racking up a massive 22-14-247-2 stat line, which averages out to 25.4 fantasy points per game. The Rams are having all kinds of problems on defense, including their safety rotations where both John Johnson and Taylor Rapp have been working. I am a little worried about how the 49ers RT Mike McGlinchey’s absence will affect Kittle’s routes since he is an exceptional blocker. But the script of this game calls for the Rams offense to score and force the 49ers out of their run at all costs shell, which leads to more forced routes by Kittle and thus more production.
Favorite GPP Play…
Jared Cook, Saints ($5600/$3400) – It worked for us last week, so why not go right back to the well in week six? Alright, that is just lazy, but Cook really is a good contrarian option for us this week. Believe it or not, he is 12th in the NFL in targets among TEs and has now had six in back-to-back games with Teddy Bridgewater. Though he caught his first TD of the season last week, he has generated a 15% red zone snap share this season, which isn’t great but shows he is a weapon down there. The Jaguars are a funnel defense, especially with Jalen Ramsey in the game as he is expected to be this week. The FD price here is a little rich for my tastes, but the DK salary is enough to get us a couple of the stud RB/WRs this week.
Baltimore Ravens ($5000/$4100) – The Bengals are a hot mess, and there is a reason why the Ravens are nearly two-TD favorites in this matchup. The Bengals have given up the sixth-most QB hurries, fifth-most sacks and sixth-most giveaways so far this season. Cincinnati has also scored just the fourth-least points of all 32 NFL teams this season. I don’t like to pay up for defenses unless I absolutely know what the outcome is going to be, and this one is right there this week. I’d try to pay down, but if you have the means to afford the Ravens defense, do it.
Washington Redskins ($4200/$3200) – You never really know what will happen when two terrible teams get together, but when one of them is the Dolphins, you know it won’t be pretty. The Dolphins have scored, by far, the least points of any team in the NFL, surrender the second-most sacks and have the second-most giveaways in the NFL this season. The Redskins have interceptions in four straight games and sacked Tom Brady four times a week ago. There is quite a bit of talent on the Redskins defense, and though it hasn’t all come out in their group play, a matchup against the worst team in the NFL could easily allow that talent dominate.
Seattle Seahawks ($4100/$3400) – The Seahawks are 9th in the NFL in takeaways, while the Browns are sixth in the league in giveaways. This pass rush of the Seahawks is just starting to get going, as Ziggy Ansah gets healthy and JaDaveon Clowney becomes acclimated. The Browns are coming off of a destruction at the hands of the 49ers on Monday night, and thus, had a short week to prepare for this Seattle defense.
Minnesota Vikings ($3600/$2600) – This is a good defensive unit that is at home and way underpriced this week. The Vikings are 10th in the NFL in sacks and have caused seven turnovers in five games this season. It’s incredible they are only $2600 on DK here this week. The Eagles offense is a threat, but they won’t be able to run for a lot against them. In turn, this will force Carson Wentz to air it out, which leads to turnovers.
Cleveland Browns ($3500/$2800) – The Seahawks could be without two of their starting offensive linemen on Sunday. The Browns are fifth in the NFL in pressures, sixth in the NFL in sacks and fourth in sack percentage this season. Myles Garrett is second in the NFL with seven sacks and will be almost impossible to contain this week.
New York Jets ($3100/$1500) – Ridiculously low price allows us an extra $1K or more, depending on the site. I’ve been saying for weeks now this Jets defense isn’t nearly as bad as the early season numbers suggest. The Cowboys are without both of their All-Pro tackles on the offensive line, which should help New York get to the QB here.
DFS NFL COACHING SESSIONS
Monday – Lineup Review w/ Taylor Canevari
Tuesday – QB Coach w/ Vlad Sedler
Wednesday – RB Coach w/ Ted Schuster
Thursday – WR Coach w/ Tyler Buecher
Thursday Night – Primetime Livestream w/ Corey Parson & Benny Ricciardi
Friday – TE Coach w/ Benny Ricciardi
Friday Night – NFL NOW Livestream w/ Tommy G & Jeff Mans (Hey, that’s ME!)
Saturday – DST Coach w/ Thad Houston
Saturday Night – Lineup Coaching w/ Jeff Mans (Hey, that’s me AGAIN!)
Sunday – NFL NOW Livestream w/ Draftcheat & Brian Healy (10am ET)
Sunday – Lineup Lock Chat w/ Ted Schuster (11:30am ET)