Welcome to the DFS NFL Cash Game Breakdown, where Jeff Mans breaks down everything you need to know to build safe, high-floor lineups.
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE
ADDED TO PLAYER POOL:
Russell Gage, WR, Falcons – Bracket coverage coming to Calvin Ridley pushes targets to Gage who has finally separated himself as the Falcons WR2 without Julio Jones.
Mike Williams, WR, Chargers – Everybody flocking to Tyron Johnson and even Jalen Guyton yet Williams has been removed from the injury report. In week 8 against a healthy Broncos secondary, Williams went off for 8-5-99-1. In that same game, Keenan Allen, who is now OUT, had 12 targets that must go somewhere.
Keke Coutee, WR, Texans – The more I ran this games outcomes, the more the Coutee Vs Mackenzie Alexander matchup popped off in favor of the Texans WR.
Austin Hooper, TE, Browns – In GPP’s you can massively upgrade fellow TE Harrison Bryant but in cash games Hooper is the best play. He is a lock for near double digit targets with the Browns having zero familiar WR’s for Baker Mayfield to throw against.
Donald Parham, TE, Chargers – Hunter Henry is out this week as he is on the Covid/IR list which gives Parham the start. Parham is an absolute mass of a human being and is a total matchup nightmare for backup LB Alexander Johnson of the Broncos. Not sold on his overall involvement but his red zone target probability combined with his super low price tag puts Parham in our cash game radar.
UPDATED CORE 4 (Hooper moves into DK Core 4)
SUPERDRAFT CORE 4
QB – Lamar Jackson, Ravens – 1.25x
RB – Miles Sanders, Eagles – 1.4x
WR – Allen Robinson, Bears – 1.3x
TE – Travis Kelce, Chiefs – 1x
FANDUEL CORE 4
QB – DeShaun Watson, Texans – $8500
RB – Nick Chubb, Browns – $9000
WR – Cooper Kupp, Rams – $ 6800
TE – Donald Parham, Chargers – $4200
DRAFTKINGS CORE 4
QB – DeShaun Watson, Texans – $7600
RB – Miles Sanders, Eagles – $7000
WR – Coper Kupp, Rams – $6600
TE – Austin Hooper, Browns – $3500
The final couple weeks of this NFL regular season will fracture our regular DFS routines. But as I said last week, there will be no slowing down this train of ours. If you’re anything like me, you’ve also spent way more than you are comfortable with this holiday season. So, my primary goal is to put us in a position to pull back as much cash as possible out of the DFS sites.
Remember, this write-up is once again focusing solely on the main slate on Sunday. I will be posting this on Christmas Eve to give ya’ll something to read while you’re avoiding your family these next couple of days. But there aren’t any showdown plays in here for you. Ryan Clifford will have those for you on Saturday. In the meantime, before I get to the best plays of the week, please let me tell you a quick story.
You can call me Buddy the Elf because Christmas is also my favorite. I don’t really know what it is about this particular holiday, but I simply love it. I am sure it has something to do with my upbringing, as Christmas was usually a therapeutic break from the chaos.
There is a story I have shared a few times that I find quite appropriate, given all we have been through in 2020. When my Father passed away back in 1999, my Aunt – his Sister, who lived in North Carolina – drove up the night of his funeral and carried with her a small teddy bear. When it was time to say our final goodbyes, she placed the bear in the casket with him.
My Father had always insisted my Mom, who was in charge of putting out our presents, put an unwrapped teddy bear on top of our stack each Christmas. In fact, when she would refuse to do so, citing the cost of a gift “we had plenty of,” he would go out to the local convenient store and get one to put on top of our gifts. None of us, me, my Mother or my four Brothers and Sisters knew why this was so important to him.
After my Aunt put the bear in his casket, we all had to ask why? She explained to us that when she, my Father and my other Aunt, who had passed away on Christmas Day three years earlier, were growing up, they were extremely poor. My Dad’s family lived on a farm in Western Illinois and, to cut right to the chase, were extremely fucked up. Evidently, they never celebrated Christmas other than to take the day off of work. That alone stunned me because my old man loved Christmas more than Clark Griswold.
One year, when my Aunt was about five years old (she was the youngest of the three), my Dad found a beaten-up teddy bear on one of the neighboring farms where he was doing work. For Christmas that year, he wrapped it up in an old newspaper and gave it to my Aunt. That began a tradition of the three of them wrapping that same teddy bear every Christmas and giving it to one another, so they would feel the way the other kids they went to school with did on Christmas. So, now I know why she brought that bear and why he had always wanted a stuffed animal on top of our presents.
Christmas means something different to everybody. Some of you probably don’t give a damn about it. For others, it is a sacred holy day. For me, it is a time to take a snapshot of my life. I make sure to remember where I come from, show appreciation to those who support me, and remind myself to be happy. As most of you who read my articles and/or listen to me on the radio already know, I tend to be angry about a variety of topics. In fact, I suffered from depression rather intensely in my younger days. I need to actively remind myself to be happy.
This year has been a real test for all of us. For many of us, it has been a year of loss. Whether that loss has been financial, social or health, it has impacted our lives significantly. I think now more than ever we all should remind ourselves to be happy. Our lives are not perfect and probably will never be so. But each of us deserves a little something. Whether it’s health, friends, family or maybe just an old beat-up teddy bear.
Remember, I will not be doing full write-ups on the players listed in each position. By now, you should know the criteria of why I settle on the players that I do. If you need more information, hit up our DFS NFL chat room, hit me up on Twitter, or join me on the combination Core 4 Livestream/Saturday Night Chat on Saturday night at 7pm ET. I’ll be happy to answer all of your questions in these forums.
In the meantime, be good to one another, stay safe, and have yourself a Merry Christmas!
Here is the DFS NFL Cash Game Breakdown for Week 16:
WEATHER
No weather issues in the main slate of games this week!
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers – There will be 2-6 inches of snow accumulation in Green Bay on Sunday, most of which will arrive before the game. We could see some snow during the very early portions but the field will be slick and wet for sure.
VEGAS
QUARTERBACKS
QB TABLE
WEEK 16 DFS NFL QB BREAKDOWN
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (1x/$9400/$8500) – We should get a full game out of him and the rest of the Chiefs’ skill players though a large lead could lead to them resting late.
Deshaun Watson, Texans (1.15x/$8500/$7600) – Please don’t fall for the Bengals upset over the sinking Steelers last week. Watson will carve them up through the air and on the ground. #AlwaysWatson
Justin Herbert, Chargers (1.2x/$8200/$7400) – Herbert threw for 278 yards, 3 TD’s, and posted 21.22 fantasy points back in week eight against the Broncos. Denver has lost its top three cornerbacks since that meeting.
Jalen Hurts, Eagles (1.3x/$8200/$7000) – This is the QB that you all want to use, so here you go. I was very surprised at how well he graded out this week. Though, it isn’t for the reasons most of you believe. Hurts really isn’t the threat most of you believe he is, especially on the ground. But this matchup is tremendous, and best of all, it will be super competitive. The Eagles are fighting for their playoff life, and the Cowboys would love nothing more than to end it. I have this as the second highest-scoring game of the entire slate, so Hurts’ expected production comes in above the cash line on SuperDraft and DraftKings this week.
Don’t Forget About…
Andy Dalton, Cowboys (1.65x/$6900/$5500) – As long as the Eagles are without CB’s Darius Slay and Avonte Maddox, Dalton is in play. The ginger-haired gunslinger is averaging 17.2 fantasy points over his last four games, and this script plays up as a faster, more high scoring affair.
Favorite GPP Play…
Russell Wilson, Seahawks (1.05x/$7900/$7300) – Very close to cash playable, as his price has finally sunk to a mid-tier level. You want to be invested in super competitive games, and this Rams/Seahawks contest very likely will shoot out.
SuperDraft Multiplier Play…
Lamar Jackson, Ravens (1.25x)
RUNNING BACKS
RB TABLE
O-LINE/D-LINE MATCHUPS (Mans Model – Point System Scale of -100 – 100)
Main Slate Games Only
- Cleveland Browns → New York Jets – 47
- Houston Texans → Cincinnati Bengals – 28
- Indianapolis Colts → Pittsburgh Steelers – 21
- Washington Potatoes → Carolina Panthers – 19
- Chicago Bears → Jacksonville Jaguars – 15
WEEK 16 DFS NFL RB BREAKDOWN
Miles Sanders, Eagles (1.4x/$7300/$7000) – I swore that I would never go back to Sanders this season, but here we are. The Cowboys allow 5.0 yards per carry on the season, and without LB Leighton Vander Esch, they give up 5.6 yards per rush attempt. Vander Esch is likely out this week with an ankle injury.
David Montgomery, Bears (1.3x/$7800/$7700) – Montgomery has been a fantasy beast over the last four weeks, as he’s gone for over 100 total yards and scored at least one TD in each game. Moreover, the Jaguars have given up the third-most rushing yards, fifth-most rushing TD’s and the fourth-most fantasy points to RB’s this season.
Nick Chubb, Browns (1.15x/$9000/$7800) – The Jets are without DT Quinnen Williams, who single-handedly has kept this unit as a top run stopper in the league this season. Moreover, Williams was PFF’s #2 rated run stopper this season. Chubb is one of the best RB’s in the NFL and is averaging 5.6 yards per rush attempt this season. The Browns are currently 10-point favorites, which is a positive game script for the Browns running game. He’s expensive but could approach the 200-yard mark if given 25+ touches.
Le’Veon Bell, Chiefs (1.4x/$6400/$5800) – To get the starting RB for the Chiefs in an immensely beneficial game script for this price is borderline criminal. The Falcons are not an easy matchup, but they do allow the seventh-most targets, fifth-most receptions and fifth-most TD’s to opposing RB’s this season.
Don’t Forget About…
Darrell Henderson, Rams (1.55x/$5600/$4500) – The best of the super value RB’s this week. Cam Akers is out, leaving the backfield duties to Henderson and short-yardage back Malcolm Brown. The Seahawks are giving up 4.6 yards per carry over their last three games. They also surrender the fourth-most targets, second-most receptions, sixth-most receiving yards and fifth-most receiving TD’s to RB’s this season. Henderson will be the pass-catching back this week, which alone should generate our 2x goal from him.
Favorite GPP Play…
Austin Ekeler, Chargers (1.3x/$7000/$7600) – Ekeler will get passed over in favor of Montgomery, Sanders and Jonathan Taylor this week mostly because of his price. But the Broncos are giving up a whopping 6.6 yards per carry and 147 rushing yards per game over their last three games. He is also averaging seven receptions per game since returning from IR, which gives him a massive upside in this matchup.
SuperDraft Multiplier Play…
Giovani Bernard, Bengals (1.7x)
WIDE RECEIVERS
WR TABLE
WR/CB MATCHUPS
Main Slate Games Only
WR/CB MATCHUPS (BASED ON PFF RATINGS – % Rating Difference)
- Tyreek Hill, Chiefs → Isaiah Oliver, Falcons – 50%
- A.J. Green, Bengals → Vernon Hargreaves, Texans – 42%
- Demarcus Robinson, Chiefs → Kendall Sheffield, Falcons – 39%
- Tyler Boyd, Bengals → Eric Murray, Texans – 34%
- CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys → Nickell Robey-Coleman, Eagles – 26%
- Allen Robinson, Bears → Greg Mabin, Jaguars – 22%
- Calvin Ridley, Falcons → Charvarius Ward, Chiefs – 22%
- Mike Williams, Chargers → Michael Ojemudia, Broncos – 21%
- Cooper Kupp, Rams → Ugo Amadi, Seahawks – 20%
- Amari Cooper, Cowboys → Michael Jacquet III, Eagles – 20%
- Jamison Crowder, Jets → Kevin Johnson, Browns – 19%
- Keenan Allen, Chargers → Will Parks, Broncos – 19%
WORST COVERAGE CORNERBACKS – WR MATCHUP (Mans Model)
- Vernon Hargreaves, Texans → A.J. Green, Bengals
- Darqueze Dennard, Falcons → Mecole Hardman, Chiefs
- Javelin Guidry, Jets → Jarvis Landry, Browns
- Sidney Jones, Jaguars → Allen Robinson, Bears
- Donte Jackson, Panthers → Terry McLaurin, Potatoes
- Michael Jacquet, Eagles → Michael Gallup, Cowboys
- De’Vante Bausby, Broncos → Jalen Guyton, Chargers
- Chidobe Awuzie, Cowboys → Jalen Reagor, Eagles
- Darnay Holmes, Giants → Willie Snead, Ravens
- Ugo Amadi, Seahawks → Cooper Kupp, Rams
- A.J. Terrell, Falcons → Sammy Watkins, Chiefs
- Phillip Gaines, Texans → Tee Higgins, Bengals
- Tre Herndon, Jaguars → Anthony Miller, Bears
- Mackenzie Alexander, Bengals → Keke Coutee, Texans
- Will Parks, Broncos → Keenan Allen, Chargers
- Isaiah Oliver, Falcons → Tyreek Hill, Chiefs
- Buster Skrine, Bears → Keelan Cole, Jaguars
- Blessuan Austin, Jets → Rashard Higgins, Browns
- Darius Slay, Eagles → Amari Cooper, Cowboys
- Michael Ojemudia, Broncos → Mike Williams, Chargers
WEEK 16 DFS NFL WR BREAKDOWN
Allen Robinson, Bears (1.3x/$7500/$7700) – The only question here is whether we use A-Rob or David Montgomery in our cash game lineup. However, the case for Robinson is pretty simple: volume. The Bears #1 WR is fourth in the NFL in targets, seventh in the NFL in target share, fifth in air yards, fifth in receptions, eighth in receiving yards and ninth in fantasy points among WR’s this season.
Jarvis Landry, Browns (1.35x/$6500/$6900) – Landry still isn’t close to what his salary should be in DFS with a neutral matchup, let alone against the worst secondary in the NFL. Landry is averaging 10 targets, seven receptions, 80 receiving yards and 19.7 fantasy points per game over his last four games.
Cooper Kupp, Rams (1.35x/$6800/$6600) – Both Kupp and Woods are in terrific spots this week against the Seattle defense that is eighth-worst DVOA against the pass. I prefer Kupp in this spot because he is cheaper, will be lesser owned, and has a better CB matchup against Ugo Amadi, who is the 10th worst CB in the main slate this week. In his last two games in Seattle, Kupp has racked up 26 targets, 15 receptions, 207 receiving yards and two TD’s.
Tee Higgins, Bengals (1.5x/$5800/$4700) – If Tyler Boyd misses this week due to a concussion, Higgins gets a big upgrade. Boyd’s absence would narrow the target distribution against the Texans defense that ranks third-worst in overall DVOA and fifth-worst DVOA against the pass. The Texans have given up the third-most receiving TD’s and eighth-most fantasy points to WR’s this season.
Don’t Forget About…
Terry McLaurin, Potatoes (1.3x/$7100/$6700) – The only people Dwayne Haskins targets more than Terry McLaurin are champagne room strippers. As we said last week, McLaurin was a frequent target once again with Haskins under center, racking up a 12-7-77-0 stat line. This week, he draws the fifth-worst CB in my model in Donte Jackson.
Favorite GPP Play…
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks (1.2x/$6900/$6500) – Lockett has been a complete boom or bust WR so far this season, and there is reason to believe this week will be another boom. DK Metcalf will likely be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey, leaving Lockett to go up against slot CB Troy Hill, who is the Rams’ weakest corner. Lockett had nine targets against the Rams back in Week 10 and should be able to do more damage against them this time around.
SuperDraft Multiplier Play…
Diontae Johnson, Steelers (1.4x)
TIGHT ENDS
TE TABLE
WEEK 16 DFS NFL TE BREAKDOWN
Travis Kelce, Chiefs (1x/$8800/$8500) – The best TE by far, but the price keeps going up and really starting to hamper our lineup builds. I will most likely be starting my lineups by fading Kelce with the idea that as soon as the super cheap value play opens up over the weekend, I’ll use that savings to jump back up for Kelce.
Mark Andrews, Ravens (1.25x/$7000/$5700) – A 25% bonus on SD and a near $3K savings from Kelce on DK makes this decision real difficult. On FD, the savings to Andrews just isn’t quite enough unless we get that super value player to jump out for us this week.
Logan Thomas, Potatoes (1.45x/$6000/$4900) – No tight end has more targets over the last three weeks than Logan Thomas. He is averaging 17.55 fantasy points per game over his last four games. His price is up, and we are currently unsure which Washington QB will start this game, but either Alex Smith or Dwayne Haskins will be fine for his target share against the Panthers here.
Dallas Goedert, Eagles (1.55x/$5700/$3600) – Fourteen targets in Jalen Hurts’ first two starts is a promising start for their relationship. Overall, Hurts is targeting the TE position on 32.4% of his passes over his first two starts. The Cowboys struggle covering the TE, ranking second-worst in the NFL in DVOA against tight end this season.
Don’t Forget About…
Noah Fant, Broncos (1.5x/$6200/$4800) – Fant had 11 targets and eight receptions, including a TD, last week against the Bills. Moreover, he racked up a 9-7-47-0 stat line against these Chargers back in week eight. The Chargers have given up the third-most TD’s and eighth-most fantasy points to TE’s this season.
Favorite GPP Play…
Eric Ebron, Steelers (1.65x/$5500/$4200) – Ebron reportedly avoided major injury last week and is set to go here in Week 16. He gets a crack at his former team this week after averaging nine targets per game over his last three games before the injury last week.
SuperDraft Multiplier Play…
Austin Hooper, Browns (1.65x/$5100/$3500)
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Washington Potatoes ($4800/$3000) – A terrific price on DK this week. The Potatoes defense has scored 3+ points in all but two games, and in every one Chase Young has played in, this season.
Chicago Bears ($4700/$3600) – Bears need to win, Jaguars need to lose, and Uncle Rico is starting at QB for Jacksonville again this week.
New York Jets ($3000/$2000) – In four of the last five weeks, the lowest priced DST (always the Jets) has paid off handsomely. The Jets DST has scored 8, 9, 5, -1 & 6 fantasy points over that time.
Indianapolis Colts ($4300/$3200) – Priced-down as if they were playing the 11-0 Pittsburgh Steelers offense and not the one that couldn’t generate 200 total yards against the Bengals just six days ago.
WEEK 16 CORE 4
**Expect changes as news comes in**
SUPERDRAFT CORE 4
QB – Lamar Jackson, Ravens – 1.25x
RB – Miles Sanders, Eagles – 1.4x
WR – Allen Robinson, Bears – 1.3x
TE – Travis Kelce, Chiefs – 1x
FANDUEL CORE 4
QB – Deshaun Watson, Texans – $8500
RB – Nick Chubb, Browns – $9000
WR – Cooper Kupp, Rams – $6800
TE – Logan Thomas, Potatoes – $6000
DRAFTKINGS CORE 4
QB – Deshaun Watson, Texans – $7600
RB – Miles Sanders, Eagles – $7000
WR – Coper Kupp, Rams – $6600
TE – Logan Thomas, Potatoes – $4900
Join me Saturday night in the DFS NFL CHAT for last-minute questions!
