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Welcome to the DFS NFL Cash Game Breakdown, where Jeff Mans breaks down everything you need to know (and plenty of things you probably don’t!) to build safe, high-floor lineups!
LATE SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE
CORE 4’s UPDATED (see below)
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE
The one thing that we all settled on in the chat tonight was that we need to find a value WR or two. So, I’ve spend the last four hours finding that for us. I was actually STUNNED at one player that jumped off of the page which I have noted below.
FANDUEL CORE 4: Lamar Jackson, Dion Lewis, Keenan Allen & Jacob Hollister
DRAFTKINGS CORE 4: Lamar Jackson, Dion Lewis, Keenan Allen & Jacob Hollister
SuperDraft Core 4: Ryan Fitzpatrick 1.5x, DeAndre Washington 1.85x, Keenan Allen 1.5x & Jacob Hollister 1.5x
Added To Player Pool: Dion Lewis (if Henry is OUT only!), Danny Amendola & DaeSean Hamilton.
DaeSean Hamilton was a real surprise but he is logging a ton of snaps and his route frequency is a real problem for Lions CB Justin Coleman. There is some real upside here with him so…Merry Christmas!!
It’s a busy time of year. We’re in the belly of the holiday season, which means shopping, family and time are constantly nagging us and trying to distract us from the tasks at hand. It’s always rough for me to balance the championship run of the fantasy football season with gathering the proper information for DFS analysis while also trying to be a lesser disappointment as a husband and father.
But this year, it feels like everything is working out. Christmas is on Wednesday, giving us the perfect buffer between the preview and reaction to either week of NFL, and by the time Santa squeezes his fat ass down the chimney, we will already know our fate for both the seasonal and DFS week. It will also leave us with plenty of time to properly analyze the always chaotic Week 17. I guess this is just a longer way of telling you all that I am pretty damn confident in what we are putting together this week.
PLEASE NOTE: There is a very nice Saturday slate of DFS NFL this week with three really good games for us to partake. But I will not be covering that slate with you here. As most of you know, a three-game slate is NOT good for cash games, as there just aren’t enough options for us to build a true nonfat lineup. Feel free to still play 50/50’s, as those are your best pure odds of winning, but there is no way to build a real cash game lineup with such few games. So, our guy Tyler Buecher will be posting his full writeup later tonight for the three-game slate on Saturday. Tyler did a fantastic job on the Thanksgiving Day slate writeup so I have all the confidence in the world in him to give us the goods.
I am focused on this Sunday main slate as I always am. Last week was probably the best line-by-line writeup I’ve had this season, as we simply hit on just about every cylinder. I know, not everybody had a profitable week and that bums me out, but it is part of the game. I have spoken with a number of you guys this week who are still pissed about the lineup trains being run on FanDuel cash games. I get it….but come on now. Just stop playing there if you don’t like it. We have set you up over on SuperDraft with a spot to play cash games, shined a light on who the culprits in DFS are and even announced to everybody on Sunday morning what that train lineup would be. Sure, they made a swap after I did that, but we still knew what we were up against. I am not here to tell you what to do or how to feel, but I do urge you, do not let these trains become a built-in excuse. We all have a job to do, and that is win. I am here to help you all do exactly that. I am not impressed nor threatened by these lineup trains, and I know that our veteran DFS player subs aren’t either. Let’s just kick their ass and never look back.
This week, we are going to do much of what we did last week. Identify what teams, coaches and players have the most (or any) incentive to perform, dissect those opportunities and matchups and generate the proper player pool. There are going to be a lot of NFL players who have either been backups, part-time players or practice squad players that will get a larger opportunity over the next two weeks. That is why I go through the NFL Draft process, watch college film, research & build coaching profiles and record matchup data every single season. There will not be a player who pops up here that I don’t have a well-versed opinion. There are a few players this week, who I personally love the talent of, but whom I will be ignoring for the most part for our cash game purposes. We simply will not be distracted by others who will attempt to be heroes here this week instead of simply being profitable players.
No matter what happens this week, we still have four more quality weeks of DFS NFL ahead of us. More importantly, I would like to wish each and every one of you a VERY healthy, hearty and happy holiday. We are a family around here, and from mine to yours, Merry Christmas!!
Here is the DFS NFL Cash Game Breakdown for Week 16:
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans – Overcast and rainy in the Nashville area during this game on Sunday. It won’t be cold or windy, but there is a 40% chance of rain showers over Nissan Stadium.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins – There is a 60% chance of rain during this game, which puts a bit of a damper on both offenses. The wind will not be an issue at just 12-15 MPH, but the light, steady rain could create a slick football and curb some of the passing game for the Dolphins and Bengals.
|NAME||TEAM||OPP||DVOA TOTAL||DVOA PASS||DEF VS QB||TOTAL OLINE||PASS OLINE||TIME TO THRW||PACE||ATTS PG||INT AIR YDS||CMP AIR YDS|
WEEK 16 DFS NFL QB BREAKDOWN
Lamar Jackson, Ravens ($9300/$8000) – The NFL’s likely MVP is also the fantasy football MVP for 2019, though, Christian McCaffrey will have something to say about that. Jackson is an obvious selection for us in cash game this week if price were not an issue. But price is ALWAYS an issue, so we are going to have to figure out where to spend the high-end money this week. This is not a good week for QB’s in the main slate, with Watson, Winston, Allen, Brady, Goff, Garoppolo, Mahomes, Rodgers and Cousins all off of the board. The Ravens will lock up home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with a victory over the Browns this week. A win will also be redemption, as the Browns are one of the two teams to defeat them this season. In week four against the Browns, Jackson threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 66 yards. This time, Cleveland will be without DE Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon, making this a much softer matchup. The Browns have allowed the third-most rushing yards and fifth-most rushing TD’s to QB’s this season. Expect one last big smash from Lamar this week then the Ravens sit him down next week to rest up for hosting the AFC Divisional Round Playoff Game in two weeks.
Matt Ryan, Falcons ($7700/$6200) – Ryan has had an up and down season. He’s smashed matchups like Houston and Arizona while completely soaking the bed sheets against Tampa Bay and the LA Rams. Overall, he is averaging 19.3 fantasy points per game, which is good for the seventh-highest among fantasy QB’s this season. This week, he draws the drowning Jaguars, who will likely fire head coach Doug Marrone after they lose this game this week. On the other side, Falcons head coach Dan Quinn has his team at 4-2 after starting the season 1-7. Ryan has thrown for 2+ TD’s in each of his last three games while averaging 278 yards passing. The Jaguars are definitely worse against the run than the pass, but that bodes well for the entirety of the Falcons offense really. Jacksonville is fourth-worst DVOA overall, are fourth-worst pass coverage per PFF, ninth-worst pass rush according to PFF and have given up the eighth-highest yards per completed pass in the league this year.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dolphins ($7400/$6000) – I have a lot of confidence in Fitzpatrick this week. Fitzpatrick has racked up the fourth-most fantasy points of all QB’s over the last four weeks and has gone for 250 yards & 2 TD’s in three of those four games. He is averaging 22.2 fantasy points per game over those four games and is averaging 36.3 rushing yards as well. He has played better at home this season as well with a better record 2-4/1-6, completion percentage 63.8%/59.7%, TD-INT ratio 8-5/7-7, QB rate 89.0/75.8 & yards per game 230.3/201.1. The Bengals have dethroned the Dolphins as the worst team in the NFL and will wrap up the #1 overall pick in 2020 with a loss here. Cincinnati owns the fifth-worst DVOA against the pass, surrendered the sixth-most passing yards per game, third-worst passing yards per attempt and the eighth-most fantasy points to QB’s this season.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys ($8000/$6400) – No team is playing for more this week than the Cowboys, who could either clinch or lose the NFC East division this week in Philadelphia against the Eagles. Dak is dealing with some shoulder discomfort that they are calling an AC joint sprain, which is concerning. But every indication at this point is his lack of practice this week is just precautionary. In week seven against the Eagles, Dak threw for 239 yards and one touchdown while also rushing for 30 yards and another TD in a 21.6-point performance. The Cowboys won that game in blowout fashion 37-10, but I don’t expect that to happen this time around. The Eagles are playing for their playoff lives too and will put some points up on the Cowboys, which will keep them throwing. These Eagles CB’s have a real tough time covering speed, and the Cowboys throw three downfield threats at you with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb. Expect the Cowboys to attack CB Ronald Darby specifically on post and go routes all afternoon. It’s a very fair price for a dual-threat QB, who is fourth in QB scoring this season, playing in his most important game of the season.
Don’t Forget About…
Garnder Minshew, Jaguars ($6800/$5500) – He played like shit last week against the lowly Raiders but was still able to put up 18.7 fantasy points (the exact amount I projected him for in this space a week ago BTW). The Falcons are going to beat up on Jacksonville this week, but there are enough playmakers left in this Jaguars offense to put up points against the 10th worst overall DVOA defense in the NFL. The Falcons defense has been better but is still eighth-worst DVOA against the pass and has surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to QB’s this season. The built-in three points of rushing yards here also are quite a help to get him up to the 18-point level, which is what we are looking for out of him at this price.
Favorite GPP Play…
Russell Wilson, Seahawks ($8300/$7000) – I will never not have confidence in Russell Wison. Well, at least until he shows me evidence that I should not have confidence in him. The volume is never going to be great, but Wilson always finds a way to produce for his Seahawks teammates and his fantasy owners. Wilson is third in the NFL in fantasy points among QB’s and is averaging 288 passing yards and 25 rushing yards per game at home this season. He hasn’t had a monster game since throwing up 39 against the Buccaneers back on November 3rd. He is due for a huge outburst and the Cardinals at home are the perfect setting. Arizona has allowed an average of 318 passing yards over their past seven games. On the season, the Cardinals are fifth-worst DVOA against the pass, have surrendered the most passing yards, most passing TD’s and most fantasy points to QB’s this season.
|NAME||TEAM||OPP||DVOA TOTAL||DVOA RUSH||DEF VS RB||TOTAL OLINE||RUSH OLINE||EVADED TKLS||BRKWYS||OPP SHARE||RZ TOUCH||GZ TOUCH|
WEEK 16 DFS NFL RB BREAKDOWN
Christian McCaffrey, Panthers ($10,800/$10,100) – McCaffrey is just six receptions short of 100 for the season and 13 short of his own single-season record of receptions by a running back. What’s more, he’s 186 yards short of becoming the third player ever to have 1,000+ yards rushing & 1,000+ yards receiving. Make no mistake, this has been a focal point of the offense, especially since head coach Ron Rivera was fired three weeks ago. CMC has an amazing 46 receptions over the last five weeks alone; more than all but nine RB’s have on the entire season. With rookie QB Will Grier starting this week, we can safely assume a ton of check-down passes out of him. My baseline projection for McCaffrey has a rather weak rushing effort out of him at 12-58-.2, but his receiving puts him on our cash game radar (even at this price) with 11-8-82-.2. He has racked up 11 catches, 135 total yards and 24.5 fantasy points against these Falcons two weeks ago.
Joe Mixon, Bengals ($7800/$6600) – How much do I love thee, Joe Mixon, let me count the ways. The Bengals are 28th in the NFL in rush attempts but have the fifth most in the NFL over the last three weeks. This is an offense clearly running out the clock on the season, and Mixon is the beneficiary of this plan. Mixon has the most rushing attempts and third-most touches among RB’s over the last three weeks. He is also the fifth-highest scoring RB in the NFL over those three games. If you have watched him play over the last month, it is clear this guy is trying to show the world what he can do despite playing for the worst team in the league. All of this production has come against stiff competition in the Steelers, Jets, Browns and Patriots so this week’s matchup with the Dolphins will make Mixon the hot knife cutting through warm butter. Miami is fourth-worst DVOA against the run, have given up the most rushing yards, sixth-most rushing TD’s and third-most fantasy points to RB’s this season.
Melvin Gordon, Chargers ($7000/$5600) – Come on now. MGIII is significantly underpriced on both sites this week mostly because of the Chargers horrible performance last week and Austin Ekeler’s smash job the week before. There are two schools of thought about Gordon the rest of the way. Some believe that because he is not under contract with the Chargers for next year, they don’t need to see anything from him and will instead try to judge the other RB’s in their stable. The other school of thought, and the one that I belong to, is this is a lost season for the Chargers. Gordon is not in their future so just pile on him as much as possible these final two weeks. Austin Ekeler is a restricted free agent too, and the better he does will directly drive up the offer sheet he receives and the Chargers will have to match, while Gordon is just a gone goose. Gordon has 12 targets and 10 receptions over the last two weeks. He went for 22-108-1 with a 25-yard catch against these Raiders in Week 10.
Devonta Freeman, Falcons ($6200/$6000) – The price is right, bitch! Alright, maybe that isn’t the proper holiday message here, but there’s no doubt that Freeman is in a great spot this week against the Jaguars. We used Freeman two weeks ago in a similar matchup at home against the Carolina Panthers, and he came through with 19.4 fantasy points, including his first rushing TD of the season. The Jaguars are a shell of a team right now. They fired team Vice President Tom Coughlin this week after the report that 25% of all player grievances over the last four years have been filed against Jacksonville. Then, six defensive starters simply sat out practice the day after and none of them got in a full practice all week. Jacksonville is second-worst DVOA against the run, fourth-worst overall DVOA, have surrendered the third-most rushing yards, second-most rushing TD’s, eight most receiving yards and second-most fantasy points to RB’s this season.
DeAndre Washington, Raiders ($5600/$4000) – Like him a lot more on DraftKings at $4K, but on both sites, he offers us the best bang for the buck. Be careful here though because the Raiders will be without RT Trent Brown, who is on IR, LG Richie Incognito, who is out, and possibly without C Rodney Hudson, who is questionable. Oakland has been very good running the football this season with the eighth-highest percentage of running plays, 12th most rushing yards and 13th highest yards per attempt this season. But without 3/5 of their offensive line, I just cannot expect the same return. Josh Jacobs ran for 16-71-1 with 5-3-30-0 receiving against the Chargers back in Week 10, and Washington rung up an impressive 14-53-1 with 7-6-43-0 receiving in his only start of the season against Tennessee in Week 14. We will get our 2-3x return out of him, and if he gets in the box, it will be some nice gravy, but I wouldn’t expect him to run wild.
Don’t Forget About…
Marlon Mack, Colts ($7300/$6200) – The Colts should just simply use their offensive line to lean on this Carolina defense and push them up and down the field all day. This is the single biggest mismatch in the NFL this week and should benefit Mack in a big way. The issue we have here, of course, is Mack never catches the football, which is one of the biggest mysteries of the 2019 NFL season. Since returning from a hand injury, Mack has done very little, only playing 46.7% of snaps and rushing 24-57-1 in two games. But he was facing the two best teams in the NFL against the run in Tampa Bay and New Orleans, so we can forgive the poor efforts. This week, however, the Colts draw the Carolina Panthers, who are dead last in the NFL in DVOA against the run. The Panthers have also surrendered the second-most rushing yards, the most rushing TD’s and most fantasy points to RB’s this season.
Favorite GPP Play…
Chris Carson, Seahawks ($8200/$8500) – Nobody is going to pay this kind of price for Carson despite the positive matchup at home and his big game a week ago. His salary is just ridiculously high and will force ownership onto Derrick Henry, Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley instead. Carson has logged 80.5% of snaps over the last two weeks and is the clear lone back in the Seattle backfield now. He is averaging 5.26 yards per carry over the last two weeks and also has four receptions, which are a very encouraging sign. Back in week four, Carson rushed 22-104-0 with 4-4-41-0 receiving against the Cardinals. We will get Carson at under 20% ownership and possible around 10% in a home game in which the Seahawks are favored by double-digit points. I like that situation despite the expensive price tag.
|NAME||TEAM||OPP||DVOA TOTAL||DVOA PASS||DEF VS WR||PASS CVG||TGT SHARE||AIR YD SHARE||ADOT||CATCH%||SEPERATION||FPTS PER TGT|
WR/CB MATCHUPS (BASED ON PFF RATINGS – % Rating Difference 2019)
- Steven Sims Jr., Redskins → Corey Balentine, Giants – 37%
- Terry McLaurin, Redskins → DeAndre Baker, Giants – 35%
- Amari Cooper, Cowboys → Jalen Mills, Eagles – 33%
- Tyler Boyd, Bengals → Jomal Wiltz, Dolphins – 32%
- Michael Gallup, Cowboys → Ronald Darby, Eagles – 30%
- Davante Adams, Packers → Xavier Rhodes, Vikings – 28%
- John Ross, Bengals → Nik Needham, Dolphins – 28%
- Alex Erickson, Bengals → Nate Brooks, Dolphins – 26%
- D.J. Moore, Panthers → Pierre Desir, Colts – 24%
- Keenan Allen, Chargers → Lamarcus Joyner, Raiders – 22%
WORST COVERAGE CORNERBACKS – WR MATCHUP (Mans Model)
- DeAndre Baker, Giants → Terry McLaurin, Redskins
- Jomal Wiltz, Dolphins → Tyler Boyd, Bengals
- P.J. Williams, Saints → Adam Humphries, Titans (Tajae Sharpe if Humphries is out)
- Byron Murphy, Cardinals → Tyler Lockett, Seahawks
- Ronald Darby, Eagles → Michael Gallup, Cowboys
- Isaiah Oliver, Falcons → Chris Conley, Jaguars
- Jourdan Lewis, Cowboys → Nelson Agholor, Eagles (Robert Davis if Agholor is out again)
- Corey Ballentine, Giants → Steven Sims Jr., Redskins
- Pierre Desir, Colts → Curtis Samuel, Panthers
- Tre Herndon, Jaguars → Christian Blake, Falcons
- T.J. Carrie, Browns → Willie Snead, Ravens
- Lamarcus Joyner, Raiders → Keenan Allen, Chargers
- Donte Jackson, Panthers → Marcus Johnson, Colts
- Justin Coleman, Lions → DaeSean Hamilton, Broncos
- Trayvon Mullen, Raiders → Andre Patton, Chargers
WEEK 16 DFS NFL WR BREAKDOWN
Michael Thomas, Saints ($9000/$9300) – We are witnessing one of the greatest single seasons in WR history here folks, and Thomas is not done yet. He is just 10 receptions short of Marvin Harrison’s record of 143 for the season, a mark many, including me, expect him to break this week. If he breaks the record this week, the Saints will be able to sit their starters next week on the road against the Panthers. The Titans are depleted in the defensive backfield with Adoree Jackson out again this week. Do you realize who will be guarding Thomas for a good amount on Sunday? Tramaine Brock. Who is that you ask? Brock is the guy responsible for giving up 13 of those Arizona Cardinals TD’s to TE’s (and slot WR’s) this season. The Saints cannot afford to put it in cruise control, as they are only the third seed in the NFC and tied with both the Seahawks and the Packers, who are technically ahead of them. With the #1 seed, home field advantage, a first-round bye and the record for most receptions ever in a season on the line, we can expect Thomas to breakout another 20+ performance this week.
DeVante Parker, Dolphins ($6900/$6800) – What does Parker have to do to start getting respect with his DFS salary? Sub $7000 for a guy who has the fifth-most fantasy points among WR’s over the last five games? Stop it. But that is good news for us, as it allows us to use him with any of the studs at other positions or even Michael Thomas at WR. Parker has four TD’s in the last two games and double-digit targets in four of his last five games, excluding the Jets game where he left early with a concussion. The Bengals are sixth-worst DVOA against the pass, have surrendered the sixth-most passing yards, and third most yards per pass attempt.
Keenan Allen, Chargers ($6700/$6300) – It’s been a very exciting week for me. Yeah, it’s nearly Christmas and I am giddy with excitement. But I also purchased some real estate this week. Yep, I took up significant acreage in the mid-tier of the WR position in DFS NFL. Allen won’t stand out to most analysts this week mostly because they don’t value consistency. Allen is ninth in the NFL in fantasy scoring among WR’s this season. He’s sixth in the league in targets with 129, fourth in receptions with 90 and 10th in receiving yards with 1,046. Back in Week 10, Allen rung up an 11-8-68-0 receiving line with 18 rushing yards against the Raiders. The Raiders are second-worst DVOA against the pass, second-worst DVOA against the slot WR (where Allen primarily lines up), have surrendered the seventh most receiving yards, seventh-most receiving TD’s and seventh-most fantasy points to WR’s this season.
Terry McLaurin, Redskins ($6500/$6200) – It’s Scary Terry week again, folks! Last week, he was our hero, ripping off that 75-yard TD and going for 5-5-130-1 against the Eagles. This week, he is priced up a bit but still firmly in the low-end of the mid-tier, which is perfect for us. I haven’t been on McLaurin much this season, but his consistently low price has put us on him and he has responded quite well. He is the ninth highest scoring wide receiver over the last two weeks, so maybe we are the good luck charm here. This week is by far his best matchup, going against the Giants at home. The Giants own the second-worst pass coverage according to PFF, third-worst DVOA against the pass, have surrendered the eighth-most receptions, fourth-most receiving yards, third-most receiving TD’s and fourth-most fantasy points to WR’s this season. McLaurin draws the coverage of the worst CB in the NFL as well in DeAndre Baker.
Tyler Boyd, Bengals ($6300/$5800) – Another WR that just doesn’t get the respect he has earned this season. I feel like I write the same line about Boyd every week, but I will do so again. Does anybody realize Boyd is eighth in the NFL in targets and 10th in the league in receptions? He is also 15th in the NFL in target share at 24.6% and even higher with Andy Dalton at 26.9%. The Dolphins are dead last in the NFL in DVOA against the pass, have surrendered the 11th most receiving yards, most receiving TD’s and third-most fantasy points to WR’s this season. Boyd also draws the coverage of Dolphins Jomal Wiltz, who is the second-worst CB in the NFL according to my model.
Don’t Forget About…
Julio Jones, Falcons ($8000/$8000) – If you are fading Michael Thomas this week, you absolutely need to consider Julio for the discount instead. We knew Julio would likely generate more targets without Calvin Ridley active, but a 51% target share was incredible. Julio is going to be shadowed by Jaguars CB A.J. Bouye, which is actually a very good thing. It means he won’t get bracketed, and Bouye has been a complete swinging gate this season. Bouye is giving up .41 fantasy points per route covered, 9th most in the NFL this season. If he gets anywhere close to the 20 targets he drew a week ago, this could be another Julio Jones legendary week.
Favorite GPP Play…
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks ($7600/$7600) – The lack of volume always seems to scare folks away from Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett. Lockett rebounded last week after a couple down performances to shred the Panthers for 9-8-120-1. This week, he gets a home game against the Arizona Cardinals, who are fifth-worst DVOA against the pass, worst DVOA against slot receivers, have surrendered the third-most receptions, fifth-most receiving yards and 12th most fantasy points to WR’s this season.
|NAME||TEAM||OPP||DVOA TOTAL||DEF VS TE||SLOT%||TGT SHARE||AIR YD SHARE||ADOT||CATCH%||SEPERATION||FPTS PER TGT|
WEEK 16 DFS NFL TE BREAKDOWN
Zach Ertz, Eagles ($6900/$6400) – It is going to be real hard to justify using any other tight end in the main slate of DFS this week. We don’t have Kelce or Kittle at the top which leaves just Ertz who has averaged 23.7 fantasy points per game over his last five games. That total alone has only been reached or exceeded six times by any TE during that span. The Eagles are in a must-win game for the division and still have no viable receivers to help them move the ball which puts the burden squarely on Zach Ertz. The Cowboys are fourth-worst DVOA against the TE this season and have allowed the third-most receptions, eighth-most receiving yards and 11th most fantasy points to TE’s this season. Last season in Philadelphia, Ertz took Dallas to the woodshed racking up a 16-14-145-2 stat line good for a whopping 40.5-point total. No other TE in the main slate has anywhere near that upside nor the floor of Ertz this week.
Darren Waller, Raiders ($6500/$6100) – Waller is third of all TE’s in fantasy scoring here in 2019. He has the third-most targets, third-most receptions, second-most receiving yards and is seventh in yards per reception this season. Waller had a tremendous start to the season then trailed off in the middle before posting three straight gems here at the end to keep his place at the top of the TE leaderboards. Waller has the third-highest targets share (24.4%) of any TE in the league, and that number will continue to rise because of the lack of other receiving options on the Oakland Raiders. This is not the best matchup for him, as safety Derwin James is back for the Chargers, and even while he was out, Waller only put up a 5-3-40-0 stat line against them in Week 10. But of all the “other” TE’s not named Zach Ertz, Waller is the one who can get us closest to that floor and ceiling this week.
Austin Hooper, Falcons ($6000/$4400) – We really like this Falcons offense this week at home against the Jaguars defense for obvious reasons. But don’t forget about Hooper here, as he was the highest-scoring fantasy TE before going down with injury in Week 10. He had scored touchdowns in four straight games before getting injured and hasn’t scored yet since he’s been back. Jacksonville has real trouble guarding TE’s this season. They currently rank second-worst in DVOA against the TE this season. The Falcons are, of course, without Calvin Ridley, leaving a 20% target share open for business and Hooper is likely the biggest benefactor of that.
Don’t Forget About…
Jacob Hollister, Seahawks ($5700/$4200) – Any TE against the Arizona Cardinals is worth a shot in DFS, and Hollister is no different. Last week, it was Ricky Seals-Jones scoring twice on the Cardinals, who have now given up the most receiving TD’s to TE’s ever. When these two teams met earlier this season in week four, Seahawks TE Will Dissly went for 8-7-57-1 or 18.7 fantasy points. Hollister will be used in DFS this week, but not by as many as you would think given the matchup.
Favorite GPP Play…
Jonnu Smith, Titans ($5400/$3800) – Jonnu is a guy who can make a lot happen himself. He has great athletic ability, size and can make plays after the catch. Those are traits we need in a GPP TE. There is a good chance Jonnu will be covered by a backup safety of the Saints in Chauncey Gardner-Johnson since fellow safety Vonn Bell might miss the game with an injury. This game has the highest expected total on the board Sunday and is expected to shootout a bit, which will keep Ryan Tannehill throwing.
Pittsburgh Steelers ($4900/$3900) – If there is just one DST that I fully trust this week, it is the Pittsburgh Steelers. They are consistently producing for DFS players week after week. The Steelers have given up more than 17 points just twice in their last nine games. The Steelers are averaging 18 fantasy points per game over their last 12 games this season. They are expensive, but if you just need something stable this week, there are basically no other DST’s that will give you what the Steelers will.
Baltimore Ravens ($4500/$4000) – Another crazy expensive defense, but one we know will not drop into the negative on us. The Ravens are sixth-best in points allowed, eighth in fumble recoveries, 12th in interceptions and first in the NFL in defensive touchdowns. The Ravens have generated eight or more fantasy points in each of their last nine games.
Seattle Seahawks ($4400/$3700) – I really don’t like many DST’s this week so it’s all about attacking the offenses that have been struggling, and the Cardinals fit that bill. Arizona has allowed the fourth-most sacks, fifth-highest sack percentage and 10th least total yards this season.
Los Angeles Chargers ($4000/$3100) – This one really screwed us last week, but I am willing to take another shot on them this week against the Raiders.
Dallas Cowboys ($3600/$2600) – The Cowboys are way underpriced here. The Eagles are still without RT Lane Johnson, which is a major loss for this Philly Offense.
Carolina Panthers ($3500/$2400) – The best of the super low DST this week on both sites. The Panthers generate pressure on the QB and are tied for the NFL lead in sacks, third in sack percentage and 13th in takeaways this season.
A quick reminder of our weekly DFS NFL schedule here at Elite Fantasy:
Monday – Lineup Review w/ Taylor Canevari*
Tuesday – QB Coach w/ Vlad Sedler*
Wednesday – RB Coach w/ Ted Schuster*
Thursday – WR Coach w/ Tyler Buecher*
Thursday Night – Primetime Livestream w/ Benny Ricciardi & Russell Clay
Friday – TE Coach w/ Benny Ricciardi*
Friday Night – NFL NOW Livestream w/ Tommy G & Jeff Mans (Hey, that’s ME!)
Saturday – DST Coach w/ Thad Houston
Saturday Night – Lineup Coaching w/ Jeff Mans (Hey, that’s me AGAIN!)*
Sunday – NFL Sunday Livestream w/ Draftcheat & Brian Healy (10am ET)
Sunday – Lineup Lock Chat w/ Ted Schuster (11:30am ET)*
*All the action goes down in the DFS NFL CHAT