DFS NFL Cash Game Breakdown – Week 14

Welcome to the DFS NFL Cash Game Breakdown, where Jeff Mans breaks down everything you need to know to build safe, high-floor lineups.

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SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE

CORE 4 UPDATE (FINAL)

SUPERDRAFT CORE 4

QB – Justin Herbert, Chargers – 1.2x 

RB – Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys – 1.25x 

WR – Keke Coutee, Texans – 1.8x 

TE – Travis Kelce, Chiefs – 1x

FANDUEL CORE 4

QB – Mitch Trubisky, Bears – $6800

RB – DeAndre Washington, Dolphins – $4800 

WR – Davante Adams, Packers – $9600 

TE – Travis Kelce, Chiefs – $8200 

DRAFTKINGS CORE 4

QB – Mitch Trubisky, Bears – $5600

RB – DeAndre Washington, Dolphins – $4000 

WR – Davante Adams – $9300

TE – Travis Kelce, Chiefs – $7400

PLAYER’S ADDED TO THE POOL: DeAndre Washington, RB, Dolphins & Chad Hansen, WR, Texans

EXCLUSIVE SUPERDRAFT CONTEST

We are doing a special contest on SuperDraft this week EXCLUSIVELY for Elite Mafia members, listeners to the SiriusXM radio show and/or my One Mans Opinion Podcast. 

Cost: $5
Entries: 465 max (single entry!)
Guaranteed Payout: $1500
Top Prize: $500
# of Winners: 100 (21.5% of the field!)

BONUS PRIZE: The winner will also receive a guest spot on either the Elite Sports Show on SiriusXM or the One Mans Opinion Podcast. Winner gets to choose which show to appear on this week. 

ENTER THE MIC’D UP WITH MANS CONTEST NOW

There is a lot I want to say in this intro this week, but instead of doing my usual thing and rant about the one or two people who enraged me in the Sunday chat, let me instead just say…thank you. It really means a lot to me that so many of you have my back time and time again when those handful of folks try and spin a narrative in our chat room. I got into some real heated conversations on Sunday and was in disbelief on a few complaints I was reading. I’ve come to the conclusion some people just want to be unhappy to the point they will alter reality and fact in order to justify that emotion. 

Fortunately, the vast majority of you guys do indeed live in reality and are able to identify and stomp out the conspiracy fuckwads who try and spin a yarn. Imagine saying a core four that produces 77 points (68% of the needed points to cash) was a failure? If you still don’t understand the goals of what the Cash Game Breakdown and Core 4 is all about, I don’t know what else I can tell you. You can always ask me on the SiriusXM show, the Livestream, in chat, on Twitter or anywhere else what the goals are each week. I feel as though I explain them constantly throughout the week, but maybe you miss it, and that is fine to just ask. 

Let’s be clear about last week. Miles Sanders was a complete failure. We can speculate and articulate how or why from now through eternity, but it simply doesn’t matter. I knew the risks going in, I saw it unfold and have zero regrets about any of it. I hate the result but knew that was a possibility. Normally, a core play such as Sanders would completely destroy our cash game lineups. But lucky for us, something amazing happened. Two of the core four from last week wound up being the two best plays of the entire week in a 15% owned Keke Coutee and 10% owned Darren Waller. Kyler Murray was solid, though his two turnovers caused him to be two points under our requirement from a cash game QB. The vast majority of lineup builds using the core four won. That is simply all that matters, and while that is a difficult concept for some of you to understand, I am so incredibly thankful most of you possess common sense. 

So, we move ahead to Week 14 and suddenly realize our cash game joyride is suddenly coming around the turn and headed down the stretch run. Four weeks are remaining in the NFL regular season, and even though playoff DFS NFL is fantastic, it isn’t meant for cash games. Thus, we need to make the most of these final weeks. It has been an absolutely sensational season for us, and the entire industry knows it. Every Sunday, the #EliteMafia dominates the headlines, and that is a testament to every single one of us. Now, let’s close it out big. 

I am not now, nor will I ever shy away from endorsing a player such as Miles Sanders, who gives us a sizeable advantage over our competitors. Let me put this another way. We are going for the fucking throat in these next four weeks. It’s not even about winning to me anymore; it is about domination. There are no more bye weeks. Weather is going to become more of a problem, and covid will likely also. Our opponents, especially those darling lineup trains, are completely broken. The algorithms and optimizers spitting out those lineups seem like a mix between Johnny-Five and the Vicki from Small Wonder. It’s borderline embarrassing what they are building week after week, but we will not complain. 

I love this week. We’ve got some real direct matchups to take advantage of at just about every position. Now, I am writing this on Wednesday, so how the ownership plays out by Sunday, I just don’t know yet. But if the previous 13 weeks are any indication, we are likely to get some of the best plays of the week at single-digit ownership. Who are these great plays? Which of them is making it into the core four? Read on my friends, because I have got your back just like you have mine.

Here is the DFS NFL Cash Game Breakdown for Week 14:

WEATHER

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks – Chilly and rainy, so a typical Seattle afternoon really. There is a 60% chance of light rain in and around the stadium, so we could have slippery conditions for this one. 

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VEGAS

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QUARTERBACKS

QB TABLE

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WEEK 14 DFS NFL QB BREAKDOWN

Aaron Rodgers, Packers (1.1x/$9100/$7500) – While I love the idea of locking in the surest QB on the board, this is an awfully high price to pay for a quarterback who doesn’t run. But Rodgers has been absolutely incredible this season and more importantly, consistent. He hasn’t scored under 21.74 fantasy points in any of his last seven games and has done so only twice this entire season. One of those games was actually in week two against these Lions, though he still threw for 240 yards and two TD’s (19.2 fantasy points). But the Lions are dead team walking, having fired their head coach Matt Patricia two weeks ago. Detroit is dead last in overall DVOA and fourth-worst DVOA against the pass. They have also put CB Desmond Trufant on IR and have first-round CB Jeff Okudah banged up with a shoulder injury. It is a skeleton crew right now for the Lions, who have surrendered the seventh-most passing yards, eighth-most passing TD’s and the 10^th most fantasy points to QB’s. There is simply no reason to think Rodgers will do anything less than those 19.2 fantasy points he put up last time against the Lions. That game featured 260 yards rushing by the Packers, a 75-yard TD run by Aaron Jones and a pick-six by Chandon Sullivan. 

Russell Wilson, Seahawks (1.05x/$9000/$7900) – Do you remember all the way back in week eight when Patrick Mahomes faced the New York Jets, and we wound up using him at 5% ownership? Sure, you do. Remember what my very direct approach was during that week? “The best QB in the NFL against the worst defense in the NFL at below 10% ownership, and we are going to ignore that?” Well, here is a very similar situation. While Russell Wilson has cooled off considerably since his red hot start, he is still third in passing yards, second in passing TD’s, third in rushing yardage among QB’s and fourth in the NFL in fantasy points among QB’s. He’s having a fantastic season and faces a team that just gave up 381 yards and three TD’s to Derek Carr last week. They also just fired their defensive coordinator after he authorized a blitz on the Raiders’ final drive that resulted in a 46-yard TD by Henry Ruggs. The Jets defense is the ultimate pass funnel this season, ranking seventh best against the run but dead last in DVOA against the pass. The Jets have given up the third-most passing yards, fifth-most passing TD’s and third-most fantasy points to QB’s this season. I have a feeling a lot of folks are going to shy away from Russ this week because of his struggles last week against the Giants. Good. We can get him for much lower ownership because of this, and it gives us a QB that we can use in both Cash and GPP this week. 

Justin Herbert, Chargers (1.2x/$8300/$6800) – I told you guys to stay the hell away from Herbert last week against Bill Belichick, and it turned out to be really good advice. Herbert has run into two consecutive tough matchups against the Bills then Patriots each of the last two weeks. But things are much different this time around. The Falcons are coming to town and feature the second-worst set of pass coverers in the NFL. The Falcons are 19^th in DVOA against the pass but sixth-best DVOA against the run. Though the Falcons are moving up in the rankings in terms of pass defense lately, that is because they have faced Taysom Hill twice, Derek Carr and Drew Lock over the last four weeks. This isn’t a good unit and one that Herbert and the Chargers receivers can easily handle. Herbert has been particularly great at home this season, where going into last week against the Patriots, he was averaging 336 passing yards, 2.1 TD’s and 29.08 fantasy points per game. 

Andy Dalton, Cowboys (1.65x/$6800/$5500) – I am bumping Dalton up into cash game status for those who are looking to build a lineup around a value QB. There really aren’t any great cash game value options at the position this week, so Dalton will have to do. This is a revenge game, as Dalton played nine games for the Bengals before being released after last season. But a revenge game isn’t worth our trust, of course, so we had to look much deeper. The Bengals defense is absolutely bleeding right now, as they struggle to limp to the finish line in another miserable season. Cincinnati is fifth-worst DVOA against the pass and has surrendered the eighth-most passing TD’s this season. After a rough start to his Cowboys starting career, Dalton has averaged 235 yards and 2 TD’s over his last three games, each against top 10 DVOA defenses. There isn’t a ton of upside here, but Dalton is in a great position to get us the 275 and 2 TD’s we are looking for from our QB this week at a very reduced price from our other options. 

Don’t Forget About…

Deshaun Watson, Texans (1.15x/$8000/$7600) – Deshaun Watson in cash…imagine that? How many of you realize Watson has a higher completion rate than Patrick Mahomes? How about more passing yards than Aaron Rodgers? How about more passing TD’s than Kyler Murray? Watson is low-key having a really strong season and doing it without DeAndre Hopkins and now without Will Fuller too. Outside of the one rain-soaked game against the Browns in Week 10, Watson is the only QB in the NFL who hasn’t thrown for under 253 passing yards in a single game. In fact, Watson is averaging 307 passing yards, 27 rushing yards and two passing TD’s per game this season. The Bears defense is tough, but they just surrendered 400+ passing yards to Matthew Stafford a week ago. Watson was passed over by the Bears so that they could take Mitch Trubisky second overall in 2017. Watson has exclaimed there is some extra motivation going into this matchup as a result of being passed over. I’ve said it a thousand times this season and will do so again: there isn’t a single NFL player who I have more trust in than Deshaun Watson. 

Favorite GPP Play…

Mitch Trubisky, Bears (1.6x/$6800/$5600) – Before head coach Matt Nagy neutered the Bears offense in the second half of last week’s game against the Lions, Trubisky played quite well. Overall, he threw for 267 yards with a 77% completion percentage and a 108.3 QB rate though only one touchdown. Make no mistake about it, Trubisky will be playing against Deshaun Watson as much as he will be facing the Houston Texans. The story in Chicago all week is about how the Bears could have had Watson, and as Trubisky heads to unrestricted free agency in just four weeks, this will be his last real chance for a statement game. The Texans defense is horrible, ranking sixth-worst in overall DVOA and eighth-worst in DVOA against the pass. This is a tremendous multiplier on SD and the lowest usable QB price on FD and DK this week. 

SuperDraft Multiplier Play…

Taysom Hill, Saints (1.5x)

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RUNNING BACKS

RB TABLE

O-LINE/D-LINE MATCHUPS (Mans Model – Point System Scale of -100 – 100)
Main Slate Games Only

1. Indianapolis Colts → Las Vegas Raiders – 37
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers → Minnesota Vikings – 34 
3. Green Bay Packers → Detroit Lions – 31
4. Kansas City Chiefs → Miami Dolphins – 27 
5. Tennessee Titans → Jacksonville Jaguars – 29
6. Denver Broncos → Carolina Panthers – 26 

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WEEK 14 DFS NFL RB BREAKDOWN

Derrick Henry, Titans (1.05x/$9600/$8700) – Truth be told, I’ve had this week flagged for Henry since week two when he let us down in this same matchup. I was secretly hoping his miserable outing last week against the Browns would keep his price level and drive his ownership down. While the latter remains to be seen, we are going to have to pay a big premium if we want to take advantage of another Henry versus the Jaguars matchup. All the way back in week two, Henry faced these Jaguars and went for a disappointing 25-84-0. But in his previous three meetings against Jacksonville, Henry has logged a 53-441-7 rushing line while chipping in 4-3-25-0 receiving. That is an average of 30.5 fantasy points per game against the Jaguars in those matchups. Jacksonville is second-worst overall DVOA and 10^th worst DVOA against the run. They have given up the fifth-most rushing yards, eighth-most TD’s, fourth-most receptions and sixth-most fantasy points to RB’s this season. This game script is perfect, the offensive line matchup is fantastic, and the receiving upside is available to protect against any kind of game flow surprises. Henry is one of, if not the surest fantasy play of the entire week. 

Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys (1.25x/$7600/$6600) – This is the dream. Every week, I pour in thousands of data points and comb through every line of every matchup to try and uncover any advantage that exists. But this is a golden goose. Zeke was the consensus fourth overall pick in fantasy drafts back in September, but the season has been a huge disappointment for those who took him in that spot. There are many reasons why Elliott has been so disappointing, but there seems to be a saving grace here this week. Zeke is priced radically down into the mid-tier level among RB’s. Despite a drastic reduction in yards per carry, yards per game and rushing TD’s, Zeke is still fourth in the NFL among RB’s in touches. He is also sixth in the NFL in rushing, fourth in targets, fifth in receptions and seventh in fantasy points scored among RB’s this season. The Cowboys offense is far from what it was when their offensive line was healthy, and Dak Prescott was their starting QB. But Andy Dalton is a capable backup who has played well lately and now draws a huge revenge game against his former team this week. The Bengals defensive line might be the only unit to have lost more talent this year than the Cowboys offensive line. The Bengals are giving up 136 rushing yards per game since deactivating Geno Atkins and trading away Carlos Dunlap. I assume Zeke will be heavily owned here this week, but I also thought Darren Waller would be last week, so don’t overthink an otherwise easy play. 

David Montgomery, Bears (1.35x/$6600/$6500) – Excuse me while I clean the vomit from my keyboard. Montgomery is one of the most underwhelming players in the NFL this season. He is a slow, plodding runner with a terrible offensive line and an unimaginative offense. But the Bears are turning back to the run game of late, and Monty is averaging 6.25 yards per carry over his last two games. What is even better is he has logged 42 targets since Tarik Cohen went down in week four and is now eighth in the NFL among RB’s in targets. His nine catches and 79 yards receiving are more important to his DFS value this week than the rushing numbers because it protects him in case of a Bears deficit. The Texans are sixth-worst overall DVOA and seventh-worst DVOA against the run. The Texans have given up the most rushing yards, second-highest rushing yards per attempt, second-most rushing TD’s, fifth-most receiving yards and second-most fantasy points to RB’s this season. 

J.D. McKissic, Potatoes (1.65x/$5300/$4900) – Antonio Gibson is out this week, leaving an average of 60% of snaps and 17 snaps on the table for the other Washington RB’s. McKissic himself sees 72% of snaps and 14 touches per game even with Gibson healthy. Obviously, he does most of his damage via the passing game, and there is a huge difference between when he sees 10+ targets and when he has four in a game. Most of this is due to game script, and this week profiles as a positive one for McKissic with the Potatoes underdogs against the 49ers. The value bin is scarce this week, especially at the RB position, so we will have to make do with the check-down specialist in J.D. McKissic. 

Don’t Forget About…

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs (1.25x/$6400/$5900) – Damn…this is a massive discount for the RB on the best offense in the NFL. CEH was held out last week after coming down with a stomach flu that was out of his system in time for the Chiefs game against the Broncos on Sunday night. This is a very similar situation that we’ve seen recently with other RB’s, notably Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler, who returned from illness/injury and had massive workloads. The Dolphins defense is a big run funnel, ranking 11^th in overall DVOA, sixth in DVOA against the pass but just 24^th in DVOA against the run. The game script, the opponent, fresh legs and a huge price decrease all add up to a value play that most of our opponents will not anticipate.

Favorite GPP Play…

Aaron Jones, Packers (1.1x/$8700/$7600) – Jones ripped the soul out of the Lions defense back in week two, going 18-168-2 rushing and 8-4-68-1 receiving, which was good for 45.6 fantasy points. We’ll take half of that in cash, please! I am feeling a lot of us are going to be doing all we can to afford Davante Adams and rightfully so. But Jones is also in a great spot in a game that is supposed to be game flow positive for him, as well. We saw him last week take a mediocre performance and turned it around with a 77-yard TD run to double his production for the day. That is the kind of player Jones is and why he is often a much better GPP player as opposed to cash games. The Packers may try and pad the stats of Aaron Rodgers with very favorable play calls, but all Jones needs is a chance and can turn the game or slate around. 

SuperDraft Multiplier Play…

Melvin Gordon, Broncos (1.4x)

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WIDE RECEIVERS

WR TABLE

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WR/CB MATCHUPS

Main Slate Games Only

WR/CB MATCHUPS (BASED ON PFF RATINGS – % Rating Difference)

1. Tyreek Hill, Chiefs → Nik Needham, Dolphins – 54% 
2. Chris Godwin, Buccaneers → Jeff Gladney, Vikings – 50% 
3. Davante Adams, Packers → Amani Oruariye, Lions – 43% 
4. Julio Jones, Falcons → Casey Hayward, Chargers – 40% 
5. Tyler Lockett, Seahawks → Arthur Maulet, Jets – 38% 
6. Antonio Brown, Buccaneers → Kris Boyd, Vikings – 37% 
7. DK Metcalf, Seahawks → Lamar X. Jackson, Jets – 34% 
8. A.J. Brown, Titans → Tre Herndon, Jaguars – 32% 
9. Amari Cooper, Cowboys → LeShaun Sims, Bengals – 31% 
10. Allen Lazard, Packers → Justin Coleman, Lions – 29% 
11. Demarcus Robinson, Chiefs → Byron Jones, Dolphins – 28% 
12. Justin Jefferson, Vikings → Sean Murphy-Bunting, Buccaneers – 25% 
13. Allen Robinson, Bears → Vernon Hargreaves, Texans – 25% 
14. Keenan Allen, Chargers → Isaiah Oliver, Falcons – 24% 
15. Tyler Boyd, Bengals → Jourdan Lewis, Cowboys – 23% 

WORST COVERAGE CORNERBACKS – WR MATCHUP (Mans Model)

1. Jeff Gladney, Vikings → Chris Godwin, Buccaneers 
2. Vernon Hargreaves, Texans → Allen Robinson, Bears 
3. Lamar X. Jackson, Jets → DK Metcalf, Seahawks 
4. Isaiah Oliver, Falcons → Keenan Allen, Chargers 
5. Darqueze Dennard, Falcons → Mike Williams, Chargers 
6. LeShaun Sims, Bengals → Michael Gallup, Cowboys 
7. Emmanuel Moseley, 49ers → Steven Sims, Potatoes 
8. Donte Jackson, Panthers -> Jerry Jeudy, Broncos 
9. Darnay Holmes, Giants -> Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals 
10. Cameron Dantzler, Vikings → Mike Evans, Buccaneers 
11. Breon Borders, Titans → Laviska Shenault, Jaguars 
12. Luq Barcoo, Jaguars → Corey Davis, Titans 
13. Phillip Gaines, Texans → Darnell Mooney, Bears 
14. Duke Shelly, Bears → Keke Coutee, Texans 
15. Dre Kirkpatrick, Cardinals → Darius Slayton, Giants 
16. A.J. Terrell, Falcons → Jalen Guyton, Chargers 
17. Avonte Maddox, Eagles → Emmanuel Sanders, Saints 
18. Tre Herndon, Jaguars → Cameron Batson, Titans 
19. Rock Ya-Sin, Colts → Henry Ruggs, Raiders 

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WEEK 14 DFS NFL WR BREAKDOWN

Davante Adams, Packers (1x/$9600/$9300) – The best fantasy WR in the game going against a deeply inferior opponent. Adams was injured after one drive against the Lions in week two but did have three quick targets and receptions in that game. With CB Jeff Okudah out this week, Adams will line up against fourth-string CB Mike Ford, who is only on the team because of his last name. It is almost insane to pay this price for a WR, but no player (RB/WR/TE) has a higher baseline projection for me this week than Adams. 

DK Metcalf, Seahawks (1.1x/$8600/$8400) – It will be difficult to play both Adams and Metcalf, so difficult decisions will have to be made. As of this writing on Friday night, it doesn’t appear as if many DFS players will be on Metcalf, which presents a golden opportunity for us. The Jets are the worst team in the NFL against the pass but pretty good against the run, which presents an intense pass funnel against them. The Jets are dead last in DVOA against the pass. They have given up the eighth-most targets, fourth-most receptions, third-most receiving yards and the ninth-most fantasy points to WR’s this season. Metcalf is the best high-priced contrarian play on the entire board this week and highly recommended in both Cash and GPP this week. 

Keenan Allen (1.05x/$8500/$7700) & Mike Williams (1.75x/$6100/$4700), Chargers – Pick your entry level here among the Chargers wideouts. Allen is a bonafide stud who leads the NFL in targets and receptions this season. He is also ninth in receiving yards, 10^th in TD’s and fourth in fantasy points among WR’s. Mike Williams is a boom or bust receiver who is making his first appearance in the Cash Game Breakdown in over a year. His multiplier on SuperDraft and low salary on both FD & DK combined with his matchup are what carries him over our cash game threshold this week. The Falcons feature three of the bottom 17 CB’s in the NFL, according to my grading system, giving each of their WR’s premium matchups. 

Keke Coutee, Texans (1.8x/$5600/$5000) – The funny thing is I really don’t like Coutee the player, but he is once again in a terrific spot here for DFS purposes. The Texans have just a banged-up (and questionable) Brandin Cooks and Coutee as proven pass catchers for Deshaun Watson right now. As a result, Coutee went 9-8-141-0 last week against the tough Indianapolis defense. Coutee played 78% of snaps from the slot last week and will resume the role here against the Bears. Chicago has two very solid outside CB’s in Kyle Fuller and rookie Jaylon Johnson. But on the interior, they have problems. Buster Skrine is awful but also out this week with a concussion. That leaves only second-year CB Duke Shelley, who was a sixth-round pick last year and is just 5’8”, to match up against Coutee. Even if he was priced up by $1000 on each site, Coutee would still be cash game viable for us this week. 

Allen Robinson, Bears (1.4x/$7000/$6800) – Robinson is a tier-one WR who is consistently priced in the mid-tier in DFS because of his offensive system. But he is still a target magnet, ranking fourth in the NFL in targets, sixth in receptions, 12^th in receiving yards and 11^th in fantasy points this season. The Texans are sixth-worst in overall DVOA, eighth-worst in DVOA against the pass, fourth-worst overall defense according to PFF and sixth-worst pass coverage per PFF this season. Vernon Hargreaves will be guarding A-Rob all afternoon and is a frequent target of ours in cash games because he is the second-worst CB in the NFL, according to my model. Robinson is going to eat him for lunch on Sunday. 

Breshad Perriman, Jets (1.55x/$5800/$3900) – It’ll be a pass-heavy script for the lowly Jets as they visit the Seahawks as two-touchdown underdogs. The Jets will be without WR Denzel Mims for this game, and fellow WR Jamison Crowder is also questionable though more likely than not to play. This brings an even bigger target share to Perriman in this plus plus matchup. Seattle is the sixth-worst DVOA against the pass and has surrendered the most targets, the most receptions, the most receiving yards, 12^th most TD’s and the most fantasy points to WR’s this season. Perriman played as the third receiver for the Bucs last year against the Seahawks and racked up eight targets, four receptions, 42 yards and a TD. 

Don’t Forget About…

Corey Davis, Titans (1.5x/$6800/$5700) – Davis is a very hit and miss WR who has been coming on strong as of late. Over the last three weeks, Davis is averaging seven targets, six receptions, 122 yards and 20.4 fantasy points per game. The Jaguars are second-worst overall DVOA, second-worst DVOA against the pass and third-worst pass coverage according to PFF this season. Davis also draws the coverage of my 12^th worst CB in the NFL in Luq Barcoo. With A.J. Brown hobbled by an ankle injury, we could see Davis once again be Ryan Tannehill’s focal point in the Titans passing game. 

Favorite GPP Play…

Mike Evans, Buccaneers (1.25x/$7300/$6600) – There is a lot to like about the Buccaneers passing game this week against the Vikings. Coming off of a bye week, Tom Brady and his loaded arsenal of weapons should be well-rested for the stretch run. Before the bye, Evans had 29 targets and four TD’s in his previous three games. In fact, Evans has five TD’s over his last five games. Evans draws the coverage of my 10^th worst rated CB in rookie Cameron Dantler this week. 

SuperDraft Multiplier Play…

D.J. Chark, Jaguars (1.4x) 

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TIGHT ENDS

TE TABLE

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WEEK 14 DFS NFL TE BREAKDOWN

Travis Kelce, Chiefs (1x/$8200/$7400) – What else needs to be said about Travis Kelce here? If you still don’t understand the significant advantage he provides you over the competition, I doubt you ever will. Kelce has as many targets as Davante Adams, more receptions than Allen Robinson, more receiving yards than Tyreek Hill and more fantasy points than DK Metcalf this season. He would be clearly the third-best fantasy WR in the league, but his price tag would be just the sixth-highest. The guy is an absolute machine, and he rarely disappoints. As I remind you every single week, if you want to sift through the mid-tier or value bin at the TE position, you will need a TD out of your choice in order to not get absolutely steamrolled by those of us who use Kelce. Happy hunting!  

T.J. Hockenson, Lions (1.3x/$6000/$5000) – Hockenson has been the lone consistent fantasy TE who is priced toward the mid-tier, although his salary barely resembles what it was a month ago. Hockenson is sixth in the NFL among TE’s in targets, third in receptions, third in receiving yards, sixth in TD’s and third in fantasy points this season. We’ve targeted against Packers LB Christian Kirksey quite a bit this season with varying results. But Kirksey has given up the sixth-most yards per route covered and the eighth-most fantasy points per route covered to TE’s this season. 

Jordan Reed, 49ers (1.7x/$5000/$3500) – A much less talked about revenge game narrative this week, Reed will take on his former team for the first time after playing for Washington for six years. This matchup comes at a perfect time as well, as the Potatoes have been bleeding production to TE’s ever since losing safety Landon Collins back in week seven. Washington is seventh-worst DVOA against the TE this season and has surrendered the 13^th most fantasy points to TE’s. They have also given up the fourth-most fantasy points to TE’s over the past six weeks or since Collins went down. After splitting time for a couple of weeks with Ross Dwelley, Reed ran over twice as many routes as Dwelley last week against the Bills.

Logan Thomas, Potatoes (1.75x/$5200/$3300) – Thomas is still priced as if he is dealing with Dwayne Haskin or Kyle Allen at QB. Since Alex Smith took over in week nine, Thomas is averaging six targets, four receptions, 35 yards, .5 TD’s and 10.5 fantasy points per game. While that isn’t Travis Kelce or Darren Waller type of production, it is quite good for the price he demands. 

Don’t Forget About…

Darren Waller, Raiders (1.25x/$7100/$6800) – Last week’s hero will be a very popular option this week, as the 90% of DFS players who missed out on him will chase him now. Waller’s monster Week 13 effort got him closer to Kelce in many categories, but he still is second fiddle in targets, receptions, receiving yards, TD’s and fantasy points. It is tempting to save the $1100 and use Waller instead of Kelce on FanDuel, but on DK where the price difference is just $600, I wouldn’t do it. The Colts have given up the least fantasy points to TE’s so far this season, but he did rack up eight targets, seven receptions and 53 yards against them last year. The target share won’t change even in a tough matchup, but it’s unlikely we get anything close to another 200 yards from Waller this week. 

Favorite GPP Play…

Noah Fant, Broncos (1.5x/$5500/$4100) – I really like Fant this week. His price is decreasing back to that of a true value TE despite ranking in the top 10 in targets, receptions, receiving yards and fantasy points per game among TE’s this season. As I have stated a thousand times already, the Panthers are destroyed on both sides of the ball by injuries and covid-19. Carolina was already terrible against the TE. They use a mix of LB Tahir Whitehead and S Tre Boston to guard TE’s, and it isn’t working. Whitehead is dead last in coverage grades, according to PFF, while Boston ranks #135 out of #160 safeties in coverage. These guys cannot ride with Fant’s athleticism. The Panthers have given up the fourth-most targets, fourth-most receptions, fifth-most receiving yards and the 10^th most fantasy points to TE’s this season. 

SuperDraft Multiplier Play…

Jordan Akins, Texans (1.9x) 

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DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

New Orleans Saints ($4900/$3800) – This is, by far and away, the best DST this week. The Saints defense has carried them over the last five weeks, where they are averaging 13.2 fantasy points per game. In this main slate, the Saints are best in overall DVOA, best in DVOA against the pass, second-best DVOA against the run, best against the run according to PFF, best in total yards against, second in sacks and third in sack percentage this season. They have also allowed the second-fewest total points and are fourth in takeaways among the teams that are playing on Sunday. Then we factor in the Eagles lead the NFL in pressures allowed, sacks allowed, and have the highest sack percentage against in the NFL. Oh, and Philly is starting rookie QB Jalen Hurts for the first start of his career this week. This is such a difference-maker at DST that I am considering paying all the way up for the first time this season.  

Washington Potatoes ($3900/$2800) – We aren’t going to get any slam dunks like the Saints DST here, but Washington measures up quite well in Week 14. The Potatoes are third in overall DVOA, second-best DVOA against the pass, best overall defense per PFF and second-best pass rush per PFF. Washington has given up the second-fewest yards, least passing yards, as well as ranking third in sacks and second in sack percentage of all defenses on the main slate. The 49ers offense is incredible up and down, so we won’t know exactly which version we’ll be matching up with, but they are cheap enough to make it worth the sacrifice. 

Denver Broncos ($4000/$2500) – Here is a real sneaky DST for us this week. As of this writing, it is not really being talked about how the Carolina Panthers are riddled with covid-19. They will be without Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel. This is in addition to QB Teddy Bridgewater (knee) and LT Russell Okung (calf) playing at far less than 100%. There just isn’t any teeth in this version of the Carolina offense, which makes the Broncos a viable cheap DST for us here. Denver is fifth in pressures, sixth in sacks, fifth in sack percentage and second in overall defense, according to PFF this season. 

Kansas City Chiefs ($4200/$3500) – Nobody ever thinks to use the Chiefs DST, but they pop up and drop a 20+ outing on us every now and then. In fact, the Chiefs DST is currently 10^th in fantasy points scored and third in interceptions this season. This matchup is a real problem for the Dolphins, who somehow are 16^th in the NFL in points scored despite being fifth lowest in total yards. When the Chiefs offense gets to you, it forces opposing offenses to get out of their comfort and throw the ball to keep up. That is a complete nightmare for rookie Tua Tagovailoa and will likely lead to sacks and turnovers. 

Dallas Cowboys ($3500/$2400) – I have been riding the Jets DST the past couple of weeks as my super cheap DST that just does enough to keep us in the ballgame. But this week, I am likely pivoting to the Cowboys if I decide to pay all the way down. Unlike the Jets defense, I actually like a couple of the Cowboys defensive players, including DE Demarcus Lawrence, MLB Leighton Vander Esch, LB Jaylon Smith and edge rusher Aldon Smith. These are playmakers who should be making this overall unit a lot more productive. But this week, the Cincinnati Bengals can do a lot of that work for us. Backup QB Brandon Allen is banged up and questionable for this matchup. Allen has turned the ball over three times in his first two games, while third-stringer Ryan Finley threw one interception in seven pass attempts last week. The Bengals offensive line is ruined with LT Jonah Williams out for the season and LG Alex Redmond (concussion), RG BJ Finney (leg) and C Trey Hopkins (chest) banged up. 

Carolina Panthers ($3400/$2900) – Ted loves this DST because of a sizable advantage on special teams and the Broncos’ frequency of turning the ball over. Denver leads the NFL in giveaways. It’s definitely a big upside play for a very low dollar amount. The Panthers have indeed gotten DT Derrick Brown back off of the covid list, too. 

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WEEK 14 CORE FOUR

I couldn’t stomach not paying up for Travis Kelce. So, there has already been a change since the SiriusXM show. Usually, I give you the value plays and let you choose your high-priced options, but this week, I just have to put that ball in your court and give you a much easier core four. 

Join me Saturday night in the DFS NFL CHAT for last-minute questions!