Welcome to the DFS NFL Cash Game Breakdown, where Jeff Mans breaks down everything you need to know (and plenty of things you probably don’t!) to build safe, high-floor lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel!
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:
FANDUEL CORE 4: Kyler Murray, Michael Thomas, Marquise Brown, Travis Kelce
DRAFTKINGS CORE 4: Drew Brees, Ronald Jones, Michael Thomas, Jonnu Smith (Olsen equal with Jonnu if you have the extra $100)
Player’s Added To The Pool
Kalen Ballage, RB, Dolphins – I hate the Dolphins and despise Ballage. But he offers three things that are very useful for us: 1) Extremely low salary 2) Volume (touches) 3) Late swap player. This is important if you are using CMC cause if your early players fail, you could get out of the CMC/Ballage RB duo and give yourself a fighting chance with any combo you want from Aaron Jones/Marlon Mack/Todd Gurley/Jaylen Samuels.
Russell Gage, WR, Falcons – If you don’t want to dive head first into the Atlanta Falcons pool, you can dip your toe in with Gage and just get a piece. Don’t expect much out of him, but his low salary again can help you attack CMC/Saints/Buccaneers/Cardinals players.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Titans – We’ll take the plunge one more time with our buddy Jonnu cause he offers that salary relief and a solid matchup this week. I don’t like the idea of paying down, but many in our NFL Chat Room tonight did so this one is for you.
It was the best of times; it was the worst of times.
That is my entire summary of week nine. I knew it was going to be a challenging week. Either the chalk would all hit or all miss, and that would be where paylines wind up. As it turns out, the chalk hit and drove paylines through the roof in cash and GPP alike.
Let’s do a quick math lesson. Last week’s core-four that was somehow disappointing to the Sunday afternoon crowd here was on point. Don’t think so? Let’s take a look:
Russell Wilson $8600 – 39.2 Points
Dalvin Cook $9000 – 13.6 Points
Jaylen Samuels $5000 – 12.8 Points
Jonnu Smith $5500 – 3.3 Points
Remember our goal of 2x point production for every dollar spent. Most weeks, that will take us to our target score of 120 (technically 125 these days) on FD. We spent $28,100 in salary and scored 68.9 FD points with our core-four. That is 17.3 points per player while using just under 50% of our budget. This puts us on a pace of 155 FD points, or if you correct for DST scoring, 149.4 points. Even though scoring was very high this week, 149.4 FD points put us above the case line in most of our 50/50’s.
Sure, we would have liked to have more out of Dalvin Cook and Jonnu Smith, but that is the way it works in DFS NFL. You’re not going to get a perfect return out of every player, which is why the choices we make are so critical. Having a zero fat lineup is wonderful, but we do need to have some upside in enough of our players to overcompensate for whoever lets us down. In all, week nine went a lot better than I thought it would go so we will take it and move on.
Before we go any further, I know we have a lot of newer subscribers here over the last few weeks so let’s remind ourselves of all the terrific content we are providing here at Elite Fantasy. I’ve been noticing some of our DFS NFL Coaching Sessions are not filling up, and those who are partaking are asking mostly slate specific questions. That’s cool and all, but if I were a paying subscriber here, I would REALLY take advantage of these sessions and pick the brains of our experienced analysts. Don’t be afraid to put us on the spot and ask us about our process, where to find information or how we evaluate players. Do whatever you want, but know our team is always here to help get you on the right path.
Here is the weekly DFS NFL content schedule for those who need a refresher:
Monday – Lineup Review w/ Taylor Canevari
Tuesday – QB Coach w/ Vlad Sedler
Wednesday – RB Coach w/ Ted Schuster
Thursday – WR Coach w/ Tyler Buecher
Thursday Night – Primetime Livestream w/ Benny Ricciardi & Russell Clay
Friday – TE Coach w/ Benny Ricciardi
Friday Night – NFL NOW Livestream w/ Tommy G & Jeff Mans (Hey, that’s ME!)
Saturday – DST Coach w/ Thad Houston
Saturday Night – Lineup Coaching w/ Jeff Mans (Hey, that’s me AGAIN!)
Sunday – NFL NOW Livestream w/ Draftcheat & Brian Healy (10am ET)
Sunday – Lineup Lock Chat w/ Ted Schuster (11:30am ET)
DFS NFL COACHING SESSIONS
This week, we have just 10 games on the main slate, tying for the least we will have all year. There are six teams on bye (Denver, Houston, Jacksonville, New England, Philadelphia and Washington) with the Chargers, Raiders, Vikings, Cowboys, Seahawks and 49ers all playing primetime games. Think about the amount and quality of players who are off our board for this main slate. The first thing you are going to notice is that your lineup is going to feel weak compared to what we were assembling over the last two weeks. There are a lot of mediocre players who are priced way beyond their worth. Distinguishing which players deserve their salary and have a viable path to producing a 2x return on it will be one of our biggest challenges this week.
But there is plenty of good news here this week. Patrick Mahomes is back for the Chiefs. The Atlanta Falcons are back and facing a well-rested Saints team with Drew Brees fully healed from his thumb sprain. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens – fresh off a throttling of the New England Patriots – get to beat up on the last winless NFL team in the Cincinnati Bengals. Then there is the Cardinals taking on the Buccaneers in the Bruce Arians Bowl where defense is completely optional. As you can see, despite the size of the slate, there is plenty to work with from a DFS NFL perspective. Let’s get to it!
Here is the DFS NFL Cash Game Breakdown for Week 10:
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears – It’ll be cold in Chicago on Sunday with temps barely touching 40 degrees. The wind will be mild though, and there is no expected precipitation during game time.
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers – It’s even colder in Green Bay with temperatures hitting a high of just 38 degrees during this game. It will be a little windy at Lambeau though with steady winds at 12-15 MPH. These winds will make it feel like it’s in the low 20’s in Green Bay on Sunday.
|NAME||TEAM||OPP||DVOA TOTAL||DVOA PASS||DEF VS QB||TOTAL OLINE||PASS OLINE||TIME TO THRW||PACE||ATTS PG||INT AIR YDS||CMP AIR YDS|
WEEK 10 DFS NFL QB BREAKDOWN
Drew Brees, Saints ($8300/$6700) – I thought Brees and the Saints were taking a pretty big risk in having him return to action before the bye week, but then he threw up 373 yards and 3 TDs against the Cardinals, proving me wrong. He’s now had an additional two weeks to get used to throwing the ball with a plate in his hand so there is no concern there whatsoever. Brees gets to face off against the lowly Atlanta Falcons defense that has been absolutely atrocious this season. The Falcons are second-worst in DVOA against the pass, are third-worst in pass coverage according to PFF, have surrendered the second-most passing yards per game, fourth-most passing yards per attempt and have surrendered the third-most fantasy points to QBs this season. Brees threw for 567 yards and seven touchdowns against the Falcons last season. This game shares the highest expected total with the Cardinals/Buccaneers game and is very likely to shootout. These teams racked up 128 total points in their two meetings last year too. This is a great way to lock in a very valuable piece of this slate.
Kyler Murray, Cardinals ($7700/$6500) – Murray has played much better at home this season, but we are totally fine with him on the road here against Tampa Bay. This game shares the highest expected total of the week with the Falcons/Saints and for good reason, considering both the Cardinals and Bucs play at a very high rate of speed. The Buccaneers are first in the NFL in DVOA against the run but just seventh-worst against the pass. It is not easy to run against the Bucs, and with David Johnson not 100% and the Tampa offense in a great spot, it will leave Kyler chucking all afternoon. Tampa Bay’s defense has surrendered the seventh-most passing yards per game and the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs so far this season.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens ($8600/$7300) – Jackson is going to be very popular after he tore the vaunted Patriots defense to shreds in the Sunday night game last week. In two career starts against the Bengals, Jackson has rushed for a total of 271 yards (135.5 per game) and one TD while also throwing for 386 yards. He ran for 19-152-1 and threw for 236 back in week six against this Bengals team. What I really love about this matchup is the Ravens will have Marquise Brown healthy for this meeting, bringing a whole new element to their offense than what the Bengals saw the first time around. I’m sure the game plan will be similar with Jackson running all over Cincinnati again, but the Bengals depleted secondary and the presence of Hollywood Brown gives them some real quick-strike ability there also.
Jameis Winston, Buccaneers ($7900/$6800) – The only problem with Winston this season is the ridiculous amount of turnovers. He’s thrown 12 interceptions, which is bad but also has an astonishing nine fumbles, which is downright scary. If he had cut down these turnovers by just 33%, which would still be high, he’d be the QB6 in fantasy football right now. Winston has averaged 47 pass attempts and 345 yards over his last three games. The Cardinals have the worst pass coverage rating according to PFF, have fifth-worst DVOA against the pass, have surrendered the fifth-most passing yards per game, the sixth-most passing yards per attempt and the most fantasy points to QBs so far this season.
Don’t Forget About…
Matt Ryan, Falcons ($7500/$6100) – Before he hurt his ankle in week seven, Ryan had thrown for 300+ yards in every game this season. The Atlanta defense is so bad that they force the offense to have to throw and throw in order to keep up. In the two games against the Saints last season, Ryan threw for 751 yards and seven touchdowns while also chipping in for 28 yards rushing. We need to monitor the status of his ankle throughout the weekend to make sure he’s healthy and ready to go. But I fully expect the three weeks he’s had to rest has helped get him ready for this big divisional game.
Favorite GPP Play…
Mitch Trubisky, Bears ($6500/$5100) – Here we go. I can hear it already, and frankly, I don’t give a shit. My job is to give you the best advice and analysis in the world, and that is what I do. I had a feeling Trubisky would grade out well this week because of the limited options and his crazy low price. But what we uncovered was Trubisky has shredded the Lions defense in his last two starts against them. One year ago this week, Trubisky led the Bears to a 34-22 win over these Lions while throwing for 355 yards, three passing TDs (0 interceptions) and ran for 18 more yards plus a rushing touchdown. Even in his rookie season, he threw for 314 yards and a touchdown (did throw 3 INT though) against Detroit. One thing I have learned in my Trubisky vs. Darnold argument over the past week is every single person HATES Mitch Trubisky. That means NOBODY will own him even in this terrific matchup. Take the name out of it and realize if you are taking the cheapest QB on the board, with the lowest ownership of any QB, and use him against the 24th overall DVOA defense who he has averaged 28.4 fantasy points against, you would do it in a heartbeat. I know you won’t play Trubisky in a GPP even with multiple lineups, but I will be here on Monday to say you should have.
|NAME||TEAM||OPP||DVOA TOTAL||DVOA RUSH||DEF VS RB||TOTAL OLINE||RUSH OLINE||EVADED TKLS||BRKWYS||OPP SHARE||RZ TOUCH||GZ TOUCH|
WEEK 10 DFS NFL RB BREAKDOWN
Christian McCaffrey, Panthers ($10,500/$10,500) – This is your decision, but let me simplify it for you. What CMC is doing this season is historic and something only LaDanian Tomlinson in 2006 has pulled off. But understand that there have been MANY other players and specifically RBs who have had historic partial/half/most of seasons before. Todd Gurley, at this point last year, didn’t have a single game under 20 fantasy points and was averaging 28.9 fantasy points per game. CMC is averaging 30.6 per game while also having one game of just 7.3 points. These are near identical situations, and we know Gurley did not make history last season in spite of his amazing first nine weeks. What I am telling you is that using any player for DFS purposes isn’t about flying the flag or believing (or not believing) in that player. It’s about what’s best for your lineup(s). In order for CMC to hit value for us in cash games, he must score 21 points this week. On DK, considering he is averaging about six points per week on receptions, that leaves a still healthy chunk of 150+ yards for him to pay off. On FD with a .5-point PPR scoring format, that is 180+ total yards for him to it value. If he scores a TD, as he’s done in all but one game this season, we need 90+ total yards. If he scored 2+ TDs, as he’s done in four games this season, you only need 30+ total yards along with the receptions. You don’t want to have to count on touchdowns to win in cash games because there is a lot of randomness to them. CMC is at a price where, without at least one TD, it would be real difficult to pay off base value, let alone give us any extra. He’s the best RB in fantasy football without any price considerations for sure so he’s never a bad play. But you will have to decide whether or not the rest of your lineup can support the $10K payment this week.
Jaylen Samuels, Steelers ($6200/$6300) – It’s not ideal to have a running back who doesn’t run the ball as such a high priority in cash games, but here we are. Samuels is crazy cheap on both sites this week, and we know he’s going to rack up a bunch of receptions and receiving yards regardless of what he does on the ground. On DK, this is totally fine, but on FD, it is a bit of a problem cause we are just getting half of those reception points. Still, last week, his 12.8 points would be plenty for us here in this spot. Sure, 13 catches are not going to happen again, but neither will just 10 yards rushing. He also lost two points for a fumble, which hurt the overall value. I have a baseline projection for Samuels as 10-39-.25 rushing and 9-6-42-.20 receiving. That equals 13.4 FD points (16.5 DK points), which is well above what we need. The fact he was the goal line RB for Pittsburgh last week helps ease our minds even more, as he should have had a rushing TD, but Mike Tomlin refused to challenge the play.
Devin Singletary, Bills ($6700/$5000) – What a great DK price here. Singletary will be extremely high owned on DK as a result; something we don’t mind that much in cash games. I illustrated the case for Singletary on the SiriusXM radio show this week with my RB checklist segment. The Bills run the ball eighth-most in the NFL at 44.6%. Singletary has taken over as the clear RB1 in Buffalo, logging over 50% of snaps in their last two games, and also has generated a 69.2% usage rate (9th in NFL among RBs) over those two games. The Browns are fourth-worst against the run, according to PFF ratings, and have surrendered the fourth-most rushing yards per attempt this season. Singletary getting the short-yardage TD late in last week’s game really puts him over here. He can pay off rather easily with receptions and total yards alone, but having that extra TD opportunity is juicy.
Ronald Jones, Buccaneers ($6300/$4300) – Both head coach Bruce Arians and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich came out this week to announce that not only would Ronald Jones be their “starting RB” going forward, but he has earned a bigger overall workload as well. Truth be told, coaching announcements make me nervous these days, but there is a lot of evidence to back up these decries. Jones has been the dominant RB in Tampa for each of the last four weeks anyway, so even if we relegate him to his “usual” role, there is enough production here for him to pay off for us. What put this over for me is all three Tampa offensive linemen – T Donovan Smith, T Demar Dotson and C Ali Marpet – are healthy and will play this week. Arizona is a bad run defense that hasn’t really been taken to task much this season. PFF rates the Cardinals as seventh-worst; they are 20th in yards per attempt, ninth-worst in DVOA against the run and 19th in rushing yards per game surrendered.
David Montgomery, Bears ($6400/$5300) – Back-to-back 20+ point games for Monty and now his matchup is finally one that is very conducive to the running game. Montgomery has logged back-to-back 73%+ snap share in the Chicago backfield, which was good for seventh-most among RBs in week eight and 10th highest of all RBs last week. Detroit is struggling to stop the run game, having allowed the third-most rushing TDs and second-most fantasy points to RBs this season.
Marlon Mack, Colts ($7400/$7000) – Mack is the boring play in the upper mid-level here this week, but be assured, he is very much live for cash games this week. Mack has a lot going for him this week, namely matchup and game flow. The Colts are 11-point favorites at home against the Miami Dolphins, but this line opened at 15.5 and was lowered with the status of Jacoby Brissett in flux. It appears as though Brissett will indeed play this week, but even if he doesn’t, it doesn’t really hurt Mack. The Colts have the third-best run blocking offensive line according to PFF, ninth-best in line yards, fourth in rush attempts, fourth in run play percentage and ninth in the NFL in rushing yards. The Dolphins are second-worst in DVOA against the run, second-worst against the run according to PFF, have surrendered the second-most rushing yards per game, surrendered the sixth-most rushing yards per attempt and have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs this season.
Don’t Forget About…
Saquon Barkley, Giants ($8600/$8800) – Know your strengths. It is a creed of mine and something I live my life by. It’s pretty obvious one of my biggest strengths of this DFS NFL season has been uncovering those great players who are hiding in plain sight. Nobody is thinking about Barkley this week for some reason. Either he is being overshadowed by CMC, or the matchup just isn’t good enough. Either way, there is a huge opportunity for us to build a chalky lineup yet use Barkley either with or instead of CMC and have a very real advantage over our opponents. Saquon hasn’t had a monster game since his ankle injury, but he is RB7 over his last three games. In that span, he is second to Jaylen Samuels in targets and receptions among fantasy RBs. The Jets have allowed the sixth-most receptions and most receptions per game to RBs this season so there really isn’t much downside here for Saquon.
Favorite GPP Play…
Damien Williams, Chiefs ($6000/$4900) – Actually, Saquon Barkley very well could be a GPP winning player for us this week. But if you are looking at the lower end of the player pool, consider my breakout RB from last week in Damien Williams. The expected gameflow for the Chiefs this week is playing with a good lead, especially considering the return of Patrick Mahomes and the defensive line getting healthy. Tennessee is tough to run against, but without DT Jurrell Casey and LB Jayon Brown last week, they gave up 156 rushing yards to the Carolina Panthers. Casey and Brown are both out this week as well, while the Chiefs are getting OG Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff back. We saw D-Will be a fantasy star at the end of the 2018 season, and things are setting up for him once against this year.
|NAME||TEAM||OPP||DVOA TOTAL||DVOA PASS||DEF VS WR||PASS CVG||TGT SHARE||AIR YD SHARE||ADOT||CATCH%||SEPERATION||FPTS PER TGT|
|Laviska Shenault Jr.||JAX||MIN||0.0||0.0||47.1||27.0||0.00||0.11||0.00||0.74||4.00||0.00|
|Odell Beckham Jr.||CLE||TEN||0.0||0.0||45.1||23.0||0.00||0.38||0.00||0.55||2.70||0.00|
WR/CB MATCHUPS (BASED ON PFF RATINGS – % Rating Difference 2019)
- Jamison Crowder, Jets → Corey Ballentine, Giants – 46%
- KeeSean Johnson, Cardinals → Jamel Dean, Buccaneers – 44% Sean Murphy-Bunting plays this side
- Michael Thomas, Saints → Isaiah Oliver, Falcons – 42%
- Demaryius Thomas, Jets → DeAndre Baker, Giants – 37%
- Zach Pascal, Colts → Nik Needham, Dolphins – 37% Needham has taken over slot coverage duties
- Christian Kirk, Cardinals → Sean Murphy-Bunting, Buccaneers – 37% Kirk lines up vs. Carlton Davis
- Mike Evans, Buccaneers → Patrick Peterson, Cardinals – 34% Shadow
- Chester Rogers, Colts → Chris Lammons, Dolphins – 34% Lammons isn’t starting anymore
- Robby Anderson, Jets → Janoris Jenkins, Giants – 31%
- Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals → Vernon Hargreaves, Buccaneers – 31%
WORST COVERAGE CORNERBACKS – WR MATCHUP (Mans Model)
- DeAndre Baker, Giants → Demaryius Thomas, Jets
- P.J. Williams, Saints → Russell Gage, Falcons
- Isaiah Oliver, Falcons → Michael Thomas, Saints
- Vernon Hargreaves, Buccaneers → Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
- Nik Needham, Dolphins → Chester Rogers, Colts
- T.J. Carrie, Browns → Cole Beasley, Bills
- Ryan Lewis, Dolphins → Zach Pascal, Colts
- Darqueze Dennard, Bengals → Willie Snead, Ravens
- Buster Skrine, Bears → Danny Amendola, Lions
- Tramaine Brock, Cardinals → Chris Godwin, Buccaneers
- Mike Hilton, Steelers → Cooper Kupp, Rams
- Carlton Davis, Buccaneers → Christian Kirk, Cardinals
- Darryl Roberts, Jets → Darius Slayton, Giants
- Kevin King, Packers → DJ Moore, Panthers
- Janoris Jenkins, Giants → Robby Anderson, Jets
WEEK 10 DFS NFL WR BREAKDOWN
Michael Thomas, Saints ($8700/$8300) – Through 10 weeks now, this Michael Thomas vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense is the most lopsided WR matchup I have graded. Thomas has been the model of consistency this year. Consider him the Christian McCaffrey of the WR position. Thomas leads all NFL receivers in targets (per game), receptions, catch rate, receiving yards and fantasy points. We thought there would be some dropoff for him when Drew Brees went down and Teddy Bridgewater was starting, but there just wasn’t. The Falcons are second-worst in DVOA against the pass, third-worst in pass coverage according to PFF, given up the second-most receiving yards, the fourth-highest yards per pass attempt and the fourth-most fantasy points to WRs this season. As you can see above, Isaiah Oliver is the third-worst CB in the NFL according to my ratings, and Thomas is set to hand him his ass all afternoon. This is a lock button type of play in all formats this week.
Chris Godwin, Buccaneers ($8200/$7400) – I am very curious about how Godwin-tilt will affect his ownership this week. There’s no doubt he disappointed us last week and that it was painful to watch Mike Evans streak up and down the field while Godwin sat in our lineups. But this is a new week, and Evans is going to be shadowed most of the time by Cardinals stud CB Patrick Peterson. This means Godwin will draw the coverage of my #10 worst CB in the NFL in Tramaine Brock. Brock has allowed the most receiving TDs in the NFL this season and the sixth-most fantasy points of all slot CBs.
Marquise Brown, Ravens ($5300/$5100) – Well, here I go. This is my Week 10 ledge, and I can already feel myself creeping out on it. If we are to pay up for either Thomas, Godwin or both, we absolutely need to find some WRs who can produce for a low salary. Brown returned to action last week after missing two weeks with an ankle injury. He was very active on the Ravens first two drives against the Patriots but then was on and off the field while the Ravens ran out the game. Brown has 43 targets on 185 Lamar Jackson pass attempts when active, which is a 23.2% target share. That is good for 17th in the NFL and better than such WRs as Julio Jones, DJ Chark, Amari Cooper, Kenny Golladay and Terry McLaurin. We know Brown is among if not the fastest player in the NFL, and that makes him a threat every time he touches the ball. The Bengals secondary is dead last in the NFL in yards per pass attempt, yards per pass completion and net yards per pass attempt. They have given up the third-most passing yards per game as well. We understand the Ravens will be playing with a lead and will be able to run at will against the Bengals this week. But they will also have big plays available whenever they want.
Golden Tate, Giants ($6400/$5900) – Tate is one of four WRs to have logged 6+ targets and 6+ receptions in every game he has started this season. He’s also 15th in scoring among WRs over the last four weeks. This week, the Giants will be without WR Sterling Shepard once again as well as TE Evan Engram. This leaves another 6+ targets available to the remaining Giants receivers with Saquon and Tate being the main recipients. The Jets secondary is in ruins right now, as they are giving up the eighth-most receiving yards per game and sixth-most fantasy points to WRs this season. Want me to drop some Jeff Mans shit on you here? How about Golden Tate has faced Brian Poole (Jets CB who is covering him this week) three times and amassed 34-20-312-3 against him. You’re welcome.
Zach Pascal, Colts ($6400/$5300) – Pascal worked out well for us a week ago when he was an even bigger value, but he still qualifies as a cash game play this week. He logged 94.4% snap share, by far the most of all remaining Colts WRs. T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell will miss this game, leaving only Pascal, Chester Rogers and Deon Cain as the healthy WRs for Indianapolis this week. The top three Miami Dolphins CBs this week have combined to cover just 224 routes this season, and none of them have more than 84. Pascal will be lining up opposite former Philadelphia Eagles castoff Ryan Lewis (yeah, it’s THAT bad!), who is my #7 worst CB in the NFL this season.
Calvin Ridley, Falcons ($5300/$5400) – I expect Ridley to be pretty popular this week because he’s incredibly cheap, in the game with the highest expected total and because he demolished the Saints last season. Indeed, Ridley went for 21-15-239-4 in just two games against the Saints last year. That is an average of 31.5 fantasy points per game. Julio Jones will likely be followed around by Saints CB Marshon Lattimore, which isn’t that big of a deal to me, but Matt Ryan appeared to enjoy picking on the other Saints CBs more last season. At this price, all we really need is 4-60-0 for Ridley to hit value in cash this week.
Don’t Forget About…
Christian Kirk, Cardinals ($5700/$5200) – If I had a nickel for every time I’ve been asked, “which Cardinals WR do you like most this week?” – this week, I’d have roughly $26.45. That is a lot of nickels, folks. There is nothing wrong with Larry Fitzgerald, but he just doesn’t have the upside of Kirk in this spot. Kirk is averaging a whopping nine targets per game, and with a very pass-heavy game script, that number could increase considerably. There is a big game here somewhere, but for now, we can lean on the high volume and great matchup against the team that has given up the most fantasy points to WRs this season.
Favorite GPP Play…
Tyreek Hill, Chiefs ($8000/$7700) – Patrick Mahomes is back, and it’s back to business as usual for this Chiefs offense. That means a lot of big plays for Tyreek to stretch out the secondary. Tyreek will be overshadowed by Michael Thomas, Mike Evans and even Chris Godwin at the higher end this week. Anytime you can get Tyreek Hill at 10% or lower ownership, you just have to pounce on it, especially in tournaments. The Titans will be without CB Malcolm Butler, of course, but also have CB Adoree Jackson banged up. These Titans CBs are terrible at stopping the deep ball and have been susceptible to the big play their entire career (Jackson & Logan Ryan).
|NAME||TEAM||OPP||DVOA TOTAL||DEF VS TE||SLOT%||TGT SHARE||AIR YD SHARE||ADOT||CATCH%||SEPERATION||FPTS PER TGT|
WEEK 10 DFS NFL TE BREAKDOWN
Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($6700/$6400) – Whoa man, this is bad. The tight end position is scary bad this week. I have just 4 TEs on this slate projected for over 10 fantasy points in a full point PPR format. For FD, there are just three projected over 10 points. So, in a perfect scenario, we would like to lock in one of the few sure things at the position instead of risking a zero. Kelce is second in the NFL among TEs in targets, third in receptions and third in fantasy points. Kelce has failed to generate 8+ targets in a game just once all season, and with Patrick Mahomes back under center for the Chiefs, the quality of those targets goes up dramatically. The Titans are 9th worst DVOA against the TE this season and are dealing with several injuries in their secondary this week. An average week for Travis Kelce is 8-5-74-.2 or 14.8 fantasy points per game. That stat line very likely will be good enough to be the best at the position this week.
Austin Hooper, Falcons ($6600/$5500) – It feels like a week off has Austin Hooper off of many DFS players radar this week. On DK this week, he is priced $900 lower than Kelce, which is pretty significant savings. Hooper leads all NFL TEs in receptions with 52, is second in receiving yards with 591 and leads all fantasy TEs in fantasy points this season. Hooper has the second-best TE/S matchup of the slate, going up against Saints Vonn Bell. Bell is the third-lowest coverage safety on the main slate this week, according to PFF. This Falcons/Saints game has the highest projected total on the slate, and the Falcons are scripted to be trailing throughout. Hooper’s caught four of his five TDs this season in the fourth quarter, so even if his production starts out slow, don’t panic. It’s pretty certain, at the end of the game and this week, Hooper’s production will be in the top five of fantasy TEs.
Mark Andrews, Ravens ($6800/$5200) – I cannot justify paying more for Andrews than Travis Kelce on FD this week, but his DK price is definitely in play. Andrews is sixth among TEs in fantasy points per game this season, but that isn’t the entire story. Over the last three games, however, he is just TE22, averaging just under eight points per game. The good news is his best game since September was three weeks ago against the same Bengals team he takes on this week. In that contest, Andrews generated eight targets and caught six balls for 99 yards. The Bengals have the fifth-worst DVOA against TEs this season. Safety Shawn Williams has a 23% target rate allowed to TEs this season and has allowed 1.75 yards per route covered, second-worst in the NFL. A month ago, Andrews would have been a rock-solid play, but the only reason he’s cash worthy this week is that there are so few reliable options for us at the position.
Greg Olsen, Panthers ($5100/$3800) – There are no more TEs who actually grade out over the cash game line this week so we have to get a little dirty in uncovering a couple hidden gems for those who want to pay down a bit. Olsen is fourth in the NFL among TEs in snap% with an 89.7% rate. He’s also 12th in fantasy points among TEs this season despite losing his QB after two weeks. Olsen is averaging five targets per game over his last three with Kyle Allen. He has scored in each of his last two games against the Packers and is averaging 21.6 fantasy points per game in those contests. The Packers have given up the fifth-most receiving yards, sixth-most receptions, fourth-most TDs and fifth-most fantasy points to TEs this season.
Don’t Forget About…
O.J. Howard, Buccaneers ($5000/$3300) – Howard hasn’t played since injuring his hamstring in week six against the Carolina Panthers. But he is practicing in full this week and in a terrific situation this week against the Cardinals. Howard was 10th in the NFL last year in slot rate among TEs at 32.5%. This year, he has played less in the slot (18.5%), but Bruce Arians has publicly said that was not enough. The Cardinals are last in DVOA against TEs, have given up the most receptions, yards, TDs and fantasy points against TEs this season. Six of the nine touchdowns the Cardinals have given up to TEs this season have occurred out of the slot, which is where I expect Howard to get over 20% of snaps from this week.
Favorite GPP Play…
Chris Herndon, Jets ($5000/$3600) – We will have to monitor Herndon’s status leading up to gametime, as he is set to make his first appearance of 2019 this week against the Giants. He has been practicing all week, and the Jets are talking as if he will be active this week. Herndon had a great second half of the season last year in his rookie campaign, hauling in 39 catches for 502 yards and four touchdowns. He is cheap, will be real low owned because many are frightened off because of his hamstring injury and has a great rapport with QB Sam Darnold. As I’ve said over and over again this week, the TE spot is a wasteland if you move away from the top three guys. If you can hit on a low-priced player like Herndon though, it would be a huge advantage for your lineup this week.
Baltimore Ravens ($5000/$4000) – This Ravens defense has gotten healthy and patched up some early season holes in the secondary to become one of the best units in the NFL. Baltimore hasn’t allowed over 20 points in a game in four weeks. They are quite expensive, and it’s not worth paying up for a DST unless you are sure they will be both highly owned and put up 10+ points at the very least. The Bengals have scored the fourth-least points so far this season and have turned to a fourth-round rookie QB in Ryan Finley, who will be making his first career start. Even with a veteran QB, the Bengals allowed the fifth-most sacks and were sixth in the NFL in giveaways. There isn’t a more sure thing at DST this week than the Ravens, though, you are going to have to pay dearly for them.
Indianapolis Colts ($4900/$3500) – A nice savings on DK for another defense that has gotten healthy over the past few weeks. Darius Leonard and Malik Hooker are back and playing at their normal All-Pro level right out of the gate. The Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL despite their win last week against the Jets. Miami has scored the third-least points in the NFL, are third in sacks allowed, third in sack % and are fifth in giveaways this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers ($4100/$2900) – I can’t tell if this once again low price is because the DFS sites are still not respecting the Steelers defense, or if they are overvaluing the Rams offense. Either way, Pittsburgh is in play here this week. The Steelers are fifth-best overall DVOA, second-best overall defense according to PFF, the best pass rush according to PFF, third in the NFL in QB pressures and sixth-best yards per carry against on the ground. Pittsburgh is also third in the NFL in sacks, fourth in sack percentage and second in takeaways in the NFL this season. This is a real good defensive unit, and though the Rams are a formidable opponent, Jared Goff has been turnover-prone this season too.
Chicago Bears ($4200/$3100) – Every time we want to write off this Bears defense, statistics, pricing and common logic won’t let us do it. The Bears have allowed the sixth-fewest points this season. They are also fifth-best DVOA against the pass, own the sixth-best pass rush according to PFF, have the fifth-most QB pressures this season, surrendered the sixth-least rushing yards and have the fourth-best yards per carry against this season. This isn’t the same defense that shut every opponent down last season, but it is still a very dangerous group playing at home with the second-lowest expected point total against.
Carolina Panthers ($3300/$2600) – When looking for a cheap DST this week, try and just settle on the best unit, and that is clearly the Panthers this week. Carolina is #1 in DVOA against the pass, have the most sacks in the NFL this season and the second-highest sack percentage this season. The Panthers will likely study tape of how the Chargers got pressure on Aaron Rodgers all game last week, hitting him six times and sacking him thrice. The Panthers are also third in the NFL in takeaways this season. The Packers will put points on the board, but these Panthers are highly capable of limiting the damage, getting to QB Aaron Rodgers and take the ball away.