Welcome to the DFS NFL Cash Game Breakdown, where Jeff Mans breaks down everything you need to know to build safe, high-floor lineups.
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE
PLAYER’S ADDED TO THE POOL: Houston Texans DST, Las Vegas Raiders DST
2 PLAYERS I AM KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS MORNING: DeAndre Washington, RB, Dolphins & Troymaine Pope, RB, Chargers. Both in the same game both minimum price. If we get word that either will be the 1a or 1b of their team, we could justify their use. Either would be an acceptable replacement for Duke Johnson, Mike Davis, Gio Bernard if it helps us get a third stud WR.
UPDATES WILL BE IN CHAT WITH TED & ON SXM PREGAME SHOW AT 12:40pm ET.
A culture of winning.
That is what we are all about here at Elite Fantasy and the entire Elite Sports Network. This has been such a trying year for all of us. A global pandemic, a chaotic political environment, shutdown of every major sports league, the most players ever on the NFL’s injured reserve list and daily economic rollercoasters. We’ve all had so many distractions this year that what we are doing as a community this football season is nothing short of spectacular.
For the second time this season, we witnessed one of our own members hit for over a million dollars in daily fantasy football last week. While winning the milly maker is just not a focus of this article, Joey Slither, the sub that won it, indeed used the “GPP options” section of this article to plug in all but one of his million-dollar lineup. Sure, we have had other subs hit the milly maker over the years, but there is something extra special about it and all of the winning we are doing this season.
I’ve been very open with you guys about us losing some of our content providers this year. Add that to the pile of obstacles we have had to overcome in 2020, but it has worked out well. Anybody who is paying attention to the fantasy industry can see, as good as our team has been over the years, that performance falls off dramatically when they go elsewhere. I am absolutely convinced, now more than ever, this is not by accident.
We ask a lot of our content providers. Over the last year or so, we have demanded even more, including more teaching, lineup exercises and time spent with our subs. This hasn’t been popular with some of our (former) analysts, and thus changes have been made. The result has been new talent being brought in and an NFL season for the ages. I said it on the Livestream last Friday and felt I should reiterate it here now: this is the most talented group of analysts we have ever had here. That is not a knock on those who were here before, but trust me as the guy who has overseen this entire company from just after launch, we have never been better.
Our team is now solely dedicated to our customers. Sure, we all love, play and want to win at DFS, but our job is to make every single one of you better. Most of us will never win the milly maker as Joey did last week. Those are anomalies that aren’t real life. Hell, smashing cash games in NINE STRAIGHT WEEKS isn’t normal either. But when you have the right process, are able to not become distracted, and stay on the right path, good things happen.
Speaking of our amazing staff, let me toss in some reminders here. I understand that while I am screenshotting hundreds of our winners every Sunday night, it burns some of you who may have had losing weeks. But I will never, ever stop showing the world what all of you are accomplishing week after week. What I would recommend to anybody struggling right now is to PLEASE get into our daily coaching sessions. Our team is spending hours in chat every day in order to help explain process, analysis or specific players with you. Here is a reminder of when each coaching session occurs:
Tuesday: QB Coach with Vlad Sedler – 11pm ET
Wednesday: RB Coach with Ted Schuster – 8pm ET
Thursday: WR Coach with Tyler Buecher – 8pm ET
Friday: TE Coach with Thad Houston – 9pm ET
Saturday: Lineup Coach with Jeff Mans – 9pm ET (note the new time!)
Sunday: Showdown Coach with Ryan Clifford – 7pm ET
Then there are the hours Ricky Sanders, CJ Kaltenbach, Scott Bondar, Brian Healy and our entire team spend in chat throughout the week. Keep grinding folks. It doesn’t matter if you are winning $2 per week or a million, our team is fighting every single day to make sure we kick the ass of all of our opponents. We don’t lose here.
One more thing before we dive into Week 10. I am aware that over on SuperDraft, the core four in this article has been so on point, it has become tough to be contrarian over there. Remember, this was why I started adding in the additional “SuperDraft Only Plays” to each position in this writeup. Even if we are using the same core four, we should always be aware, DFS is a game we are all playing against one another. If you are using the info in this article, most of the time, you are going to have a good build. But with such a high percentage of “us” playing on SuperDraft, we need to outthink one another to stay ahead. I am not going to do another core four for SuperDraft yet, but one thing I am considering is making sure we aren’t building our own version of a train. This is for your benefit guys as those of you, who identify and make even a slight change to what you think the chalk build will be from this article, will hold a significant advantage.
Here is the DFS NFL Cash Game Breakdown for Week 10:
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns – There are varying reports about the weather in Cleveland on Sunday. There will be extreme wind and rain in the morning on Sunday with the winds remaining throughout this game. The chances for rain during the game drop to about 25%, so though it may be wet, I don’t think the rain will affect the game itself.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers – Going to be cold with temperatures in the mid-to-low 30’s and the wind chill feeling like the low-20’s. The winds are expected to be high at 28 MPH sustained and up to 35 MPH gusts.
|NAME||TEAM||OPP||DVOA TOTAL||DVOA PASS||DEF VS QB||TOTAL OLINE||PASS OLINE||TIME TO THRW||PACE||ATTS PG||INT AIR YDS||CMP AIR YDS|
WEEK 10 DFS NFL QB BREAKDOWN
Kyler Murray, Cardinals (1x/$8800/$8000) – If you could have just one QB to use every single week from now through the rest of the season in all formats of fantasy football, would it be Patrick Mahomes or Kyler Murray? That’s a pretty difficult question, right? Murray is a pinball of fantasy production. Murray has the eighth-most rushing yards in the NFL. He has run for more yards than Alvin Kamara and James Conner while also scoring the third-most rushing TD’s in the NFL this season. In eight games this season, Murray hasn’t scored less than 21.7 fantasy points and that was only because he tossed three interceptions in that game. This Bills/Cardinals game will be played at the quickest pace and has the highest expected total of the week. While Buffalo’s defense isn’t a pushover, they are 23rd in overall DVOA, 15th DVOA against the pass, 22nd in overall defense per PFF and 16th in pass coverage per PFF. The Bills have also given up the third-most rushing TD’s to QB’s while also surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to QB’s this season.
Jared Goff, Rams (1.25x/$7400/$6500) – A strong mid-tier QB is like a delicious midday snack. It’s not quite a meal but it will tide you over and keep you in the game until your belly gets full. A home game against the Seattle Seahawks is about as good as it can get for any fantasy QB. The Seahawks are fourth-worst DVOA against the pass while ninth-best against the run. That is why all teams relentlessly throw against this defense. Seattle has given up the most pass attempts, the most completions, the most passing yards, 11th most passing TD’s and the second-most fantasy points to QB’s this season. The Rams have had two weeks to prepare for this matchup as well which gives them a chance to heal injuries all over their offense and for Sean McVay to gameplan against this miserable defense. Last season the Rams scored 29 & 28 points against a much better Seattle defense while Goff averaged 20.1 points per game. Goff is a pretty safe pay-down option here, but you will be chasing at least a couple of the higher-priced QB’s who offer the rushing upside, as well.
Deshaun Watson, Texans (1.2x/$8300/$6900) – I say it every week, but there are few (if any) players who I have more confidence in, week in and week out, than Watson. A lot of that has to do with just how bad the Texans defense is, which constantly leaves Watson having to ratchet up more and more points. Watson is fifth among QB’s in fantasy points per game, and that is despite only having rushed for 197 yards and one TD. The Browns are 19th in overall DVOA, 22nd in DVOA against the pass, 18th in overall defense per PFF and 18th in pass coverage per PFF this season. Cleveland has also given up the seventh-most passing TD’s this season. We are getting a very good multiplier and significant salary savings on FD & DK with Watson this week, as compared to either Russell Wilson or Kyler Murray.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks (1x/$8900/$7700) – Russ is the QB you use when you just aren’t sure about the rest of the options in a given week. He’s a sure thing just about every time out. Wilson is ninth in the NFL in pass attempts, seventh in completions, third in completion percentage, fourth in passing yards, third in yards per pass attempt, first in passing TD’s and second in fantasy points among QB’s this season. He is on pace to break the all-time passing TD mark this season, as he hasn’t thrown for less than two TD’s in any game yet this season. Russ is the most expensive QB on the board, but he’s not overly priced that it would make it an easy decision to pay down. The modest price difference between Russ and Murray/Rodgers/Watson sets up to make this one of the most important decisions we will make this week.
Don’t Forget About…
Aaron Rodgers, Packers (1.2x/$8400/$7900) – I am very curious as to what Rodgers ownership will be this week. He is quite expensive and DFS players especially GPP players usually only pay up for QB’s that can make a dent with their legs as well as their arms. So, I am projecting quite a lower ownership for Rodgers this week. The reason why he is priced up so high is because of the home game against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is dead last in overall DVOA and last in DVOA against the pass this season. They have surrendered the second-most points per game, fifth-most passing yards per game, seventh-most passing TD’s and fourth-most fantasy points to QB’s this season.
Favorite GPP Play…
Drew Brees, Saints (1.3x/$7600/$6400) – This is my “dog sniffing the air when I’m making a turkey sandwich” QB play of the week. I am secretly very interested in how the rest of the DFS industry values Brees this week. Normally, a QB coming off of a very good game against a quality opponent on a primetime game is among the highest owned players of the next week. But I haven’t heard much about Brees at all this week which is great for us. Brees tossed four TD’s against the Bucs last Sunday in just 32 attempts. Now that Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are back, this Saints offense is at full capacity for the first time since the first half of week one. Do you remember the 49ers/Saints game from last season where the teams combined for 94 points? Brees threw for 349 yards, five TD’s, and ran for another TD which amounted to 39.96 fantasy points. The 49ers had the number two defense in the NFL last year and marched to the Super Bowl because of it. This year, the San Francisco defense is beat up and completely dysfunctional. Their pass rush and secondary are specifically bad right now while they are still sixth-best DVOA against the run. So, this sets up perfectly for Brees and company to have yet another big offensive output at home this week.
Bonus SuperDraft Multiplier Play…
Carson Wentz, Eagles (1.3x)
Drew Lock, Broncos (1.6x)
|NAME||TEAM||OPP||DVOA TOTAL||DVOA RUSH||DEF VS RB||TOTAL OLINE||RUSH OLINE||EVADED TKLS||BRKWYS||OPP SHARE||RZ TOUCH||GZ TOUCH|
O-LINE/D-LINE MATCHUPS (Mans Model – Point System Scale of -100 – 100)
Main Slate Games Only
- Green Bay Packers → Jacksonville Jaguars – 42
- Cleveland Browns → Houston Texans – 39
- Pittsburgh Steelers → Cincinnati Bengals – 32
- New Orleans Saints → San Francisco 49ers – 28
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers → Carolina Panthers – 28
- Los Angeles Rams → Seattle Seahawks – 26
WEEK 10 DFS NFL RB BREAKDOWN
Mike Davis, Panthers (1.4x/$5400/$4000) – The more we get into the guts of Week 10, the more it is apparent that who we choose as our value RB will likely determine our fate in DFS. Make no mistake about it, this is a close race for the best of the value options because none of them are in great spots here this week so I will side with the one that we know the best. Davis has been very productive since Christian McCaffrey went down with injury and now finds himself as the starter again this week. The Buccaneers are a tough run defense but they are allowing 4.6 YPC since losing DT Vita Vea for the season four weeks ago. Also, Davis played one quarter against them in week three after CMC went down and caught eight passes for 74 yards. At this price, we would take that production this week and be quite happy.
Duke Johnson, Texans (1.85x/$5800/$5000) – Ted Schuster, our RB coach has sold me on Duke this week but I am not happy about it. But here is the deal. The Texans are one of few teams that give their lead RB the full complement of touches. That includes early-down snaps, goal-line carries and third-down/passing-down targets. In fact, David Johnson was seventh highest in opportunity share among NFL RB’s this season. That is the role that Duke steps in to. Last week in just under three quarters as the feature RB, he got 20 touches which included 73 total yards, four receptions and a one-yard rushing TD. This game is going to take place in wet, rainy conditions which helps the RB’s significantly here. This is also a revenge game for Johnson, who played his first four seasons in Cleveland before being traded to Houston before the 2019 season.
Aaron Jones, Packers (1.15x/$8800/$7100) – By all counts, Jones is healthy and a full go this week against the Jaguars. He’s had 10 full days to rest since his 20-touch effort when he wasn’t even supposed to play last Thursday against the 49ers. The Jaguars are just awful, and the Packers should be in complete control throughout this game. Jacksonville is dead last in overall DVOA, 22nd in DVOA against the run, 22nd in yards per carry against, have given up the seventh-most rushing TD’s against and given up the 10th most fantasy points to RB’s.
Chase Edmonds, Cardinals (1.45x/$7100/$6300) – This is 100% contingent on Kenyan Drake not playing. Drake is a gametime decision for Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. He did get in two limited practices this week, but reports are he didn’t do any contact drills at all. That is not a good sign obviously and why as of now I am endorsing Edmonds. Edmonds received the highest percentage of RB snaps of anyone last week (95.7%) and got 28 touches in that span. The Bills defense has had real trouble against the run this season, ranking 22nd in DVOA against the run and dead last in run defense per PFF. The Bills have given up the sixth-most rushing yards, fourth-most rushing TD’s and eighth-most fantasy points to RB’s this season.
Don’t Forget About…
Miles Sanders, Eagles (1.4x/$7700/$6400) – Sanders was taken completely off of the injury report this week, so he is good to go. This is a positive game script for him, as the Eagles are four-point road favorites against the Giants. While the Giants are formidable against the run, they are atrocious at protecting against pass-catching backs. The Giants have given up the most targets, second-most receptions, most receiving yards, fifth-most receiving TD’s and 10th most fantasy points to RB’s this season. Before his injury in week six, Sanders was third in the NFL among RB’s in targets (23) and eighth in receptions (11). There just aren’t many quality mid-tier RB options for us this week, and Sanders is head and shoulders above the rest.
Favorite GPP Play…
Phillip Lindsay, Broncos (1.7x/$5900/$5000) – Anybody who has watched the Broncos this season knows, it’s not even close as to who is the better RB between him and Melvin Gordon. It’s seriously gotten embarrassing at this point. Lindsay is averaging 5.8 yards per carry, while MGIII is at 4.1. Lindsay is actually sixth in the NFL in breakaway runs and leads the NFL in breakaway run rate. He isn’t going to start but will be in the game on the Broncos second possession where he will have a chunk run that will lead to more touches against the Raiders. Las Vegas is second-worst overall DVOA, worst in DVOA against the run, last in overall defense per PFF and seventh-worst against the run according to PFF.
Bonus SuperDraft Multiplier Play…
Giovani Bernard, Bengals (1.75x)
|NAME||TEAM||OPP||DVOA TOTAL||DVOA PASS||DEF VS WR||PASS CVG||TGT SHARE||AIR YD SHARE||ADOT||CATCH%||SEPERATION||FPTS PER TGT|
|Laviska Shenault Jr.||JAX||BYE||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.00||0.11||0.00||0.74||4.00||0.00|
|Odell Beckham Jr.||CLE||BYE||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.00||0.38||0.00||0.55||2.70||0.00|
Main Slate Games Only
WR/CB MATCHUPS (BASED ON PFF RATINGS – % Rating Difference)
- Terry McLaurin, Potatoes → Desmond Trufant, Lions – 47%
- Cooper Kupp, Rams → D.J. Reed Jr., Seahawks – 38%
- Chris Godwin, Buccaneers → Corn Elder, Panthers – 31%
- Tyler Lockett, Seahawks → Troy Hill, Rams – 31%
- Darius Slayton, Giants → Avonte Maddox, Eagles – 31%
- Hunter Renfrow, Raiders → Essang Bassey, Broncos – 30%
- Keenan Allen, Chargers → Nik Needham, Dolphins – 30%
- Emmanuel Sanders, Saints → Emmanuel Moseley, 49ers – 29%
- Nelson Agholor, Raiders → Davontae Harris, Broncos – 29%
- Sterling Shepard, Giants → Nickell Robey-Coleman, Eagles – 28%
- Cole Beasley, Bills → Kevin Peterson, Cardinals – 27%
- Robert Woods, Rams → Quinton Dunbar, Seahawks – 26%
WORST COVERAGE CORNERBACKS – WR MATCHUP (Mans Model)
- Emmanuel Moseley, 49ers → Michael Thomas, Saints
- Vernon Hargreaves, Texans → Rashard Higgins, Browns
- Darnay Holmes, Giants → Greg Ward Jr., Eagles
- Ugo Amadi, Seahawks → Cooper Kupp, Rams
- Donte Jackson, Panthers → Antonio Brown, Buccaneers
- LeShaun Sims, Bengals → Chase Claypool, Steelers
- Lamarcus Joyner, Raiders → KJ Hamler, Broncos
- Nik Needham, Dolphins → Keenan Allen, Chargers
- Shaquill Griffin, Seahawks → Robert Woods, Rams
- Dre Kirkpatrick, Cardinals → John Brown, Bills
- Tre Herndon, Jaguars → Allen Lazard, Packers
- Isaac Yiadom, Giants → Travis Fulgham, Eagles
- Quinton Dunbar, Seahawks → Josh Reynolds, Rams
- Jeff Okudah, Lions → Terry McLaurin, Potatoes
- Taron Johnson, Bills → Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
- C.J. Henderson, Jaguars → Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Packers
- Michael Ojemudia, Broncos → Nelson Agholor, Raiders
- Eric Murray, Texans → Jarvis Landry, Browns
- Mackenzie Alexander, Bengals → JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers
- Cre’Von LeBlanc, Eagles → Golden Tate, Giants
WEEK 10 DFS NFL WR BREAKDOWN
Keenan Allen, Chargers (1.3x/$7800/$7100) – Allen is arguably one of if not the best WR in fantasy football in 2020. He is third in overall targets, second in targets per game, second in target share, second in receptions, eighth in yards, fourth in yards per game and seventh in fantasy points per game this season. This week, the Chargers have a tough matchup against the eighth-best DVOA against the pass, Miami Dolphins. But Allen will line up inside against Dolphins CB Nik Needham who is the #8 worst CB according to my model. What’s more, the Dolphins outside cornerbacks Byron Jones and Xavien Howard are tough and should be able to slow Mike Williams and Jalen Guyton. The player, price, ownership and matchup all line up incredibly well this week.
Davante Adams, Packers (1x/$9500/$9000) – The only thing that should discourage any of us from using Adams is his price. I have been able to put together quality lineups with Adams on FanDuel, but it is nearly impossible to do so on DraftKings. But that makes him a bit contrarian here. The Jaguars are dead last in overall DVOA, DVOA against the pass and fifth-worst pass coverage according to PFF. The Jaguars allow the most yards per pass attempt, fifth-most passing yards per game and 10th most fantasy points per game to WR’s this season. If you are content with your value options this week, use Adams.
Michael Thomas, Saints (1.25x/$8500/$7400) – I love Michael Thomas this week. It is possible to use him with Adams on FanDuel, but on SD and DK, he offers us an excellent alternative to the super expensive Adams. Last season against the 49ers, Thomas rang up a 15-11-134-1 stat line against the best defense and #1 DVOA against the pass in the NFL. San Francisco has disintegrated this season with no pass rush and the 19th DVOA against the pass defense. Thomas draws the worst CB of the main slate this week in Emmanuel Moseley. We saw this Saints offense hit its stride last week with the return of Thomas, as they drubbed the much tougher Tampa Bay defense. To get the consensus best WR in the game at this price, ownership and in this matchup is downright thievery.
Jarvis Landry, Browns (1.45x/$6000/$5900) – Everybody has been asking who my “Jerry Jeudy” of the week is, and I’ve mostly responded with “Jerry Jeudy” because he is also in a great spot. But Jeudy is also a lot more popular, and as you know, we are always looking forward here and not chasing the previous week. Landry is the clear #1 WR in Cleveland now that Beckham is out for the season. Landry saw 11 targets and a 44% target share in the Browns first game without OBJ. He is now healthy after suffering from a rib injury back in week five. Landry came out this week and dedicated the rest of his season to Odell Beckham, which tells you a bit about his motivation at this point. Perhaps the best part is Landry will be guarded by converted safety Eric Murray, who was with the Browns last season. Landry would whip Murray repeatedly in practices to the point the team lost faith in him and decided not to resign him despite having traded for him a year earlier.
Robert Woods, Rams (1.3x/$7200/$6600) – Both Woods and Cooper Kupp qualify for cash game purposes this week against the Seahawks. Seattle will be without CB Shaquill Griffin and potentially CB Quinton Dunbar for this game, leaving their already beleaguered secondary even thinner. This game projects to be the second-highest scoring game of the week, and the Seattle defense is an extreme pass funnel. The Seahawks are fourth-worst DVOA against the pass yet ninth-best against the run. Seattle has allowed the most targets, most receptions, most receiving yards, most TD’s and most fantasy points to WR’s this season. So, pick which Rams WR that you are most confident in and go to town because there will be production here.
Diontae Johnson, Steelers (1.55x/$5700/$5200) – Johnson has reached double-digit targets in every game in which he hasn’t left early because of injury. To save you the time of having to look that up, that is four out of seven games this season. Though the Steelers have a diverse passing attack, Johnson does lead them all in target share (20.2%) this season. I strongly believe he is the Antonio Brown of this Steelers offense but has a problem staying healthy. In two meetings against the Bengals last season, Johnson put up a modest 12-9-106-1 stat line which equates to 12.8 fantasy points per game. He was a rookie and the Steelers third passing game option in those games so setting that as our baseline for him still puts him well above our cash game line for the week.
Don’t Forget About…
D.J. Chark, Jaguars (1.45x/$6600/$6200) – I love when Chark qualifies for cash games because we all know the tremendous amount of upside he presents as well. There was concern over rookie Jake Luton taking the reigns of the Jaguars starting QB job last week but he targeted Chark 12 times including on the first play of the game which resulted in a 73-yard TD. On the day Chark put up a 12-7-146-1 stat line good for 27.6 fantasy points. What puts Chark over for us here is the loss of Packers CB Jaire Alexander, who is doubtful for this game. This leaves Chark to go against undrafted free agent Chandon Sullivan, which is a mismatch to Chark’s advantage.
Favorite GPP Play…
DK Metcalf, Seahawks (1.2x/$8300/$7600) – Did you really think that I would forget about my boy DK Metcalf? With all of these great options at the top of the WR pool, it appears as though Metcalf will go a bit under-owned this week. If I need to sell you on why Metcalf is a tremendous GPP play, then you haven’t been paying attention this year. The guy is the most dominant WR in the NFL, and for some reason, the Rams have announced CB Jalen Ramsey will not shadow him this week. That is a big mistake and one we must take advantage of now.
Bonus SuperDraft Multiplier Play…
Jerry Jeudy, Broncos (1.7x)
Marvin Jones, Lions (1.65x)
|NAME||TEAM||OPP||DVOA TOTAL||DEF VS TE||SLOT%||TGT SHARE||AIR YD SHARE||ADOT||CATCH%||SEPERATION||FPTS PER TGT|
WEEK 10 DFS NFL TE BREAKDOWN
Dallas Goedert, Eagles (1.5x/$5800/$4200) – The Eagles are the second most TE friendly system in the NFL. They lead the league in 2 TE usage (35%) and are second in TE target share (34.2%) and sixth in TE fantasy points per game (15.1) this season. Zach Ertz is still on IR and thus Goedert has the bulk of that production all to himself. In the two games he was healthy this season, Goedert generated 17 targets, 12 receptions, 131 receiving yards and a TD. All of that was with Zach Ertz there too. Goedert is significantly underpriced especially on a slate where none of the true stud TE’s are available.
T.J. Hockenson, Lions (1.2x/$6200/$5100) – Hockenson was set to be the highest-owned TE this week before missing practice early and coming down with a toe injury during the week. As I write this, his status is in doubt, so I will get right to the point. If Hockenson plays, he will likely be at least a bit limited but also very under-owned. That creates a dilemma we will have to sort out over the weekend. The Potatoes are dead last in DVOA against the TE, and we found luck against them last week with Evan Engram. Washington has surrendered the third-most TD’s and seventh-most fantasy points to TE’s this season. Hockenson is third among TE’s in fantasy points this season and has scored a TD in four of his last five games. The Lions are once again without Kenny Golladay, leaving just Marvin Jones and Hockenson as Matthew Stafford’s receiving weapons this week.
Eric Ebron, Steelers (1.6x/$5400/$4400) – Well, when there is no Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews or Jonnu Smith on the slate, we have to make do the best that we can. Ebron is normally only a GPP option for us because of his high involvement in the red zone and because of the plethora of weapons the Steelers have at their disposal. He has just a 14.8% target share regularly but a 25.0% red-zone target rate, which is seventh-highest among NFL TE’s. Ebron has caught TD’s in back-to-back games while generating 11 targets. His opponent this week, the Bengals, have given up the fourth-most targets, seventh-most receptions, third-most receiving yards, third-most TD’s and second-most fantasy points to TE’s this season.
Evan Engram, Giants (1.35x/$5600/$4500) – Engram has really come on of late, logging 29 targets, 16 receptions, 155 receiving yards and a TD over his last three games. For the season, Engram is now third in targets, fourth in target share, fifth in receptions and 10th in fantasy points among TE’s this season. Engram faced this Eagles defense three weeks ago and logged a very solid 9-6-46-0 stat line against them. The Eagles lost safety Malcolm Jenkins this offseason, and it has really hurt their ability to contain move TE’s, especially those who will break off the line of scrimmage and move into the slot. Engram owns the seventh-highest slot rate (33.1%) of all TE’s this season. The Eagles are fifth-worst DVOA against the TE, have given up the third-most receptions, eighth-most receiving yards, third-most TD’s and sixth-most fantasy points to TE’s this season. He would get a pretty significant boost if either Sterling Shepard (toe & hip injuries) or Golden Tate (discipline) were to not play this week.
Don’t Forget About…
Noah Fant, Broncos (1.4x/$5700/$4900) – Fant is really coming into his own this season though injuries keep thwarting that progress. Last week, he started with a 32-yard catch and run against the Falcons but sprained his ankle in the process. That limited him to just two other catches for 13 yards. But Fant has practiced most of the week and is good to go for this game against the Raiders. As I have been talking about for two weeks now, this Broncos offense is very streamlined. They want to run the hell out of the ball, then throw to either Jerry Jeudy or Noah Fant depending on how the safeties are in coverage. That is why Fant is sixth in target share among TE’s this season. He’s one of a select few TE’s who has big-play ability, and with a very positive game script, we should see a couple of those big-play opportunities come to fruition this week.
Favorite GPP Play…
Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers (1.45x/$6100/$4700) – I really have no idea what the Gronkowski ownership is going to be this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the chalk or completely forgotten about. His price, along with the wealth of options in the Bucs offense, is what keeps him out of our cash game consciousness this week. But the upside is very real here, as Gronk has seemed to find his sea legs over the last month or so. Before last week’s disaster against the Saints when the whole Bucs offense went into the tank, Gronk had caught TD’s in three consecutive games. Tampa Bay has a lot of weapons at their disposal right now, but Gronkowski holds a dominating physical advantage over Panthers LB Shaq Thompson, who will be in charge of corralling him this week. Gronk is about six inches taller, 40 pounds heavier, and at this point, just a slight bit faster than Thompson. The baseline is low, but nobody has quite as high of a ceiling this week as Gronk.
Bonus SuperDraft Multiplier Play…
Jordan Reed, 49ers (2x)
Logan Thomas, Potatoes (1.85x)
Washington Potatoes ($3800/$3200) – I am seriously contemplating just doing a lock button on this Washington DST and ending this weekly headache. It’s clear this defense is much better than the salary algorithms are giving them credit for. The Potatoes are third overall DVOA, fifth-best overall defense per PFF and sixth-best pass rush per PFF. They have given up the seventh-least total points, fourth-least total yards and the least passing yards against. Since Chase Young returned two weeks ago, the Potatoes have generated 20 pressures and 11 sacks. For the season, Washington has the third-most sacks and the second-highest percentage of sacks in the NFL.
Philadelphia Eagles ($4600/$3600) – Any DST against the Giants is a pretty good idea. Unfortunately, they aren’t usually cheap and Philly isn’t any different this week. Still, Daniel Jones is a turnover factory which is why the Giants are fourth in the NFL in giveaways. The Giants offensive line is also quite bad, ranking dead last in pass blocking per PFF, overall offensive line per PFF and adjusted line yards according to Football Outsiders. The Eagles are sixth in the NFL in pressures, second in the NFL in sacks and third in sack percentage this season. The Giants are fifth in sacks allowed and fourth in percentage in sacks allowed as well.
Green Bay Packers ($4800/$3700) – Another expensive DST but a well-warranted one at that. The Packers are two TD favorites for good reason. Rookie QB Jake Luton is making just his second NFL start and first road start ever. Luton turned the ball over twice and was sacked twice in his first start. The Jaguars are seventh highest in giveaways and have surrendered the fourth-most sacks and sixth-highest sack percentage this season. With such a negative game script here, the Packers defense will likely be able to pin their ears back and rush the passer for most of the afternoon.
Denver Broncos ($4300/$2400) – Really love this price on DK here. If the Broncos can get either AJ Bouye and/or Bryce Callahan back it would be a major help for their secondary this week. The Broncos scheme well defensively each and every week. They have created the third-most pressures, sixth-most sacks and eighth-highest sack percentage this season.
New Orleans Saints ($4500/$3000) – This Saints DST deserves our attention here for a few reasons, including their absolute destruction of the Buccaneers last Sunday night. They seem to have hit another gear over the last two weeks, as the Saints defense has allowed just 26 total points while racking up eight sacks and four interceptions in that span. Now, they get the 49ers backup offense coming to town with Nick Mullens under center.
WEEK 10 CORE FOUR
SUPERDRAFT CORE 4
QB – Kyler Murray, Cardinals – 1x
RB – Duke Johnson, Texans – 1.85x
WR – Keenan Allen, Chargers – 1.3x
TE – Dallas Goedert, Eagles – 1.5x
FANDUEL CORE 4
QB – Kyler Murray, Cardinals – $8800
RB – Duke Johnson, Texans – $5800
WR – Keenan Allen, Chargers – $7800
TE – Dallas Goedert, Eagles – $5800
DRAFTKINGS CORE 4
QB – Kyler Murray, Cardinals – $8000
RB – Mike Davis, Panthers – $4000
WR – Keenan Allen, Chargers – $7100
TE – Dallas Goedert, Eagles – $4200
Join me Saturday night in the DFS NFL CHAT for last-minute questions!