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PITCHING TIERS I WILL BE ROCKING WITH TODAY
- Sale, Stras, Bauer, Paddack….We love targeting lefties vs. Tampa, but Sales’ K-rate is SHOCKINGLY lower away from Fenway than at home, so that worries me a tiny bit to pay such a high price tag. Bauer, like Sale, has significantly better K numbers at home but surprisingly has better run prevention on the road. Stras is somewhat splits-neutral this year and is the largest favorite on the board. Paddack will be the guy who goes completely unowned. I would rank these guys: Stras, Sale, Bauer, Paddack. But for GPP purposes, I think I like the ownership upside Paddack brings the most, along with a tiny bit of a discount off the other three. You really can’t go wrong with any of the three here. It’s splitting hairs, but I would go Stras as my favorite and Paddack as the GPP flier.
- Bumgarner……Bum is Back! MadBum seems extremely motivated, whether it is because the team is back in contention or because he will be auditioning for a team that will be, but I love SF from the gambling side tonight and runs have been extremely hard to come by of late in this park. In a decent sample size vs. these hitters, Bum has a 31% K-rate and .205 opp BAA. Bum has given up 3 ER in his last 23 IP, and I think the QS is a lock here. I could see him going VERY deep into this game while comin in at about 5% owned and not killing u with a $9k salary. Caleb is also interesting in this range, but I am going with MadBum on a mission.
Others: Caleb, German
- Merril Kelly….Kelly has been great so far and far better at home (which he is today). I am not a huge fan of punting the pitching spot on a slate where there are so many bangers and not amazing hitting weather, but Kelly would be the guy if I did.
FAVORITE CHALK STACK (20%+)
- Arizona….On a slate where there are a lot of options that are similar, I want to get an ownership edge and I think Arizona is where it’s at. If the bad Bundy shows up, this could get real ugly with that terrible bullpen following him up.
Others: Dodgers, Washington
- Marlins…..I don’t know how many people will go here since it’s the Marlins, but Dylan Covey is possibly the worst pitcher in America, so we need to attack.
- Yankees….I think the Yankees come in today at like 3% owned, and whenever that happens, it’s time to pounce.
Double Dong: Bellinger
5% owned Sleeper: Lamb
1% owned Sleeper: Judge
Stolen Base Target: Turner
Fade of the Day: Archer
TUNE INTO THE LIVESTREAM OR READ THE LIVESTREAM RECAP ARTICLE FOR ALL MY POSITIONAL BREAKDOWNS.
- Braves – By far my favorite stack tonight, I think the Braves are absolutely going to destroy Danny Duffy. The Braves murder lefties, and Duffy has historically really struggled against right-handed bats. The only bad thing here is a poor running matchup, but Acuna has been so aggressive recently; he might just take off anyway. 10+ runs for the Braves tonight. Focus on the right-handed power (which is pretty much their entire lineup).
- Brewers – I love left-handed power against Reds’ righty Tanner Roark, and the Brewers have it in spades. I’ve been focusing on the heart of the order here – Grandal, Yelich, Moustakas. The Reds bullpen was used extensively last night and should be unavailable/tired here for a lot of their best arms.
- Indians – They crushed for us last night and get almost as good of a matchup tonight against Aaron Sanchez, who just doesn’t have it. I really like the top 6 bats in this lineup, and I suspect they’re going to be a bit underowned tonight as well.