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For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Pitching Coach (DraftCheat) – 12pm ET
- Hitting Coach (Vlad Sedler) – 4pm ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
- The Opening Line
THURSDAY, JULY 25th
What’s going on Mafia. This article will be focusing on cash contests for Thursday’s MAIN MLB slates on DraftKings and FanDuel, starting at 7:10pm EST. We have six games slated, three of which are on the west coast. This should make for some nice late game hammers. The other thing is Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, who are pitching today, won’t be on this slate. This leaves Jose Berrios and Lucas Giolito as the only top-priced pitchers.
This slate is UGLY after those two. Masahiro Tanaka and Rick Porcello would be considered for CASH, but it’s a matchup in Fenway. These teams are VERY familiar with each other obviously, so this game is a BVP lover’s wet dream. I’d imagine a ton of fireworks with this one. After that, the arms are sketchy.
Well, let’s get at it! Here is the Thursday edition of the DFS MLB Cash Game Breakdown!
No rain in forecast.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
No lines for the BAL-LAA and DET-SEA
- A’s: -164
- Twins: -141
- Indians: -136
- Yankees: -114
Highest Run Expectancy
- Yankees – 5.8
- Indians – 5.7
- Red Sox – 5.4
- A’s – 5.4
Lowest Run Expectancy
- White Sox – 3.9
- Rangers – 4.1
- Twins – 4.7
- Royals – 4.9
DFS MLB Cash Game Pitchers
Today's Pitchers Grid
1) Jose Berrios, RHP, Twins ($10,600 DK / $9,300 FD) Berrios has a 25% K-rate against this White Sox roster. On the season, he owns a 20% K-rate overall. He is also limiting hard contact to 30%. Berrios’ only blemish is the home/road splits, which continue to lean heavy towards home games. In his last four road games, he has allowed a total of three homers and 11 ERs. In this same matchup, in Chicago, he allowed two homers.
2) Lucas Giolito, RHP, White Sox ($10,900 DK / $9,100 FD) Giolito has the upside to break this slate. The concern here is the MLB’s #1 offense against RHPs. He kept this team scoreless through 5 on 6/30. Giolito has a 29.5% K-rate and 0.76 HR/9 at home. His price is much better on FanDuel, and I don’t think the ownership will be very high with him just $200 less than Berrios.
3) Jose Suarez, LHP, Angels ($8,400 DK / $6,200 FD) The Orioles have a 26.5% K-rate against LHPs and a team ISO of .156. Suarez has a 10.19 K/9, which is good. His downside is he has a 2.76 HR/9! I am leaning towards him in Cash games simply based on matchup.
4) Brett Anderson, LHP, Athletics ($7,900 DK / $7,800 FD) First off, congratulations to Brett and his wife on welcoming a new baby boy this week. Now, his price isn’t exactly cheap, but the matchup against a Rangers team is ideal. They have the highest K% against LHPs. Even with an 11.5% K-rate, Anderson will see an increase against the swing and miss Rangers. Oh, and he’s the highest Vegas favorite on the slate.
1) Guaranteed Rate Park: 7th best for LHHs.
Rest of the ballparks are favoring the pitcher.
Things To Target (Against)
Tom Eshelman, RHP, Orioles: In the last 8.2 innings, he’s allowed five homers and 9 ERs. Jimmy Yacabonis, RHP, Orioles: gave up 7 ERs in just a 1/3 of an innings. This game should turn into a bullpen game very fast.
2) Ariel Jurado, RHP, Rangers: nearly 40% hard-hit%, allowed 16 ER and three homers the last three starts, allows 1.83 HR/9 to RHHs.
3) Drew VerHagen, RHP, Tigers: allowing 1.46 HR/9 in DET for his career. 40% hard contact to LHHs.
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a DFS MLB Cash Game value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
Batter v Pitcher
C – James McCann
1B – Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Abreu
2B – None
3B – Rafael Devers
SS – Jorge Polanco
OF – JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Brett Gardner
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
Overall Hitter Rankings
- James McCann, White Sox
- Josh Phegley, A’s
- Christian Vazquez, Red Sox
- Cam Gallagher, Royals
Notes: McCann comes into this game with a 57% hard-hit% and a 98 MPH aEV the past 15 days. He has one of the best BVPs on the slate. Phegley has seen his Batted Ball Distance increase by 12ft and holds 36% hard-hit the last two weeks. Vazquez has been swinging a hot bat. Gallagher’s overall stats aren’t sexy, but he has a 97 MPH aEV and a 60% hard-hit% the last 14 days.
- Edwin Encarnacion, Yankees
- Matt Olson, A’s
- Daniel Vogelbach, Mariners
- Trey Mancini, O’s
Notes: E5 has some great BVP against Porcello, taking him deep three times and batting .298 against him in 45 at-bats. Olson has a .243 ISO v RHP this season. Vogelbach is coming off a 2-homer game and this season has .302 ISO off RHPs. Mancini is the O’s lone bright spot and has a 45% hard-hit rate with three homers in the last four games.
- Gleyber Torres, Yankees
- Nico Goodrum, Tigers
- David Fletcher, Angels
- Rougned Odor, Rangers
Notes: Second Base on FanDuel is very thin. On DK, you have a few more options with DJ, Merrifield and Villar. Torres has a 45% hard-hit% the last two weeks and homered last night. Goodrum has a nice matchup against a LHP and sits at .186 ISO this season against them. Fletcher is expected to leadoff, and his $2,700 price against Eshelman will draw some ownership. Odor has five homers the last three games.
- Rafael Devers, Red Sox
- DJ LeMahieu, Yankees
- Jose Ramirez, Indians
- Matt Chapman, A’s
Notes: Third base is very deep on this slate, and listing just four is tough. Devers is locked in and very expensive. He has a .255 ISO v RHPs. LeMahieu continues to set the table for the Yankees; he has a 10-game hitting streak and should be a great play all weekend in Boston. Ramirez is finally starting to heat up; he has a 50% hard-hit% and an increase of 2 MPH on his aEV. Chapman is very cheap on FanDuel and has a .263 ISO v RHPs.
- Francisco Lindor, Indians
- Marcus Semien, A’s
- Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox
- Didi Gregorius, Yankees
Notes: Lindor has .243 ISO v RHP plus leadoff homer upside. Typically use Semien in matchups v LHPs, but he’s holding a 50% hard-hit with a 95 MPH aEV. Xander is super expensive on DraftKings but has some BVP success against Tanaka. Didi in that same game will save some salary with upside against Porcello. Over the last two games, he is 8-for-10, one homer and 10 RBIs.
- Mookie Betts, Red Sox
- J.D. Martinez, Red Sox
- Mike Trout, Angels
- Aaron Judge, Yankees
- Shohei Ohtani, Angels
- Nelson Cruz, Twins
- Jordan Luplow, Indians
- Mallex Smith, Mariners
- Kole Calhoun, Angels
- Khris Davis, A’s
Notes: Betts and Martinez are BVP plays. Trout and Judge are in great spots to homer. Ohtani has a freakish .305 ISO v RHPs. Cruz has been crazy hot with three straight games with homers and four of his last five. Luplow v LHPs. Smith should be leading off, which should help his chances to get on base and steal a few. Finally, is this the day Krush Davis finally goes deep? In this matchup, he has a strong probability and his price is very nice at this point.
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